Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Agree that it’s being capped, but disagree that it goes up tomorrow. I’m 99.9% sure we’ll be red tomorrow.

I'll take that bet and front you a factor of 10X. I'll give you $100 (USD) if it ends red tomorrow but only if you give me $10,000 if it ends green. You should like those odds since it gives you a 10X advantage considering your level of certainty it will end red.

 

[Prunesquallor]

How has an ear into the TSLAQ crowd...is it all about the credit's?

Well...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well, 6.2M shares traded after-hrs so far up to 19:26 hrs, so I'd say YES.

Cheers!

Paging @Unpilot Yeah, After-hours Volume was huge as a percentage of daily volume. Here's how today ranked vs other major news days:

As you can see, today was in the 'Top Three' along with Q1 Earnings day and the Q2 P&D day.

Today was AHEAD of the Q2 Earnings Day, the day of the 5:1 Stock Dividend announcements, and even Battery day.

So yeah, I'd say people were holding off while waiting on the news. Let's watch volume tomorrow!

Cheers!

 

[OrthoSurg]

Rob Mauer’s expectations beaten by 245% on Tesla Q3 Earning calls.
Now that is impressive

 

[Cattledog]

The Tesla Q3 earnings report conference call begins at the 2:44-minute mark. Dave Lee's analysis of the event begins at 1:03:39.

About 7 years ago I suggested the thesis for investing in TSLA was as much about what we know as what we don't know (future products/processes). Go to 1:19:08 for that in Dave's take.

 

[ammulder]

Those were some knockout margins. So... is it wrong to be glad the regulatory credits exceeded GAAP profit, and hope that 2020 deliveries come in at like 499,500? Give TSLAQ all the ammo they need. I swear, I just want more time to buy... Just a few more months is all...

All that aside, I think they'd be nuts to guide for 840,000-1M deliveries in 2021. They can "comfortably exceed 750,000"... set the bar at 50% growth and then exceed it, even if things go horribly wrong... And with battery supply being the limiting factor, it's not obvious to me that they can grow that fast anyway. Could the world supply of automotive-size Lithium Ion batteries really double next year? Seems like a tall order.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Did you know batteries make up the bulk of energy storage costs? How does 59% less sound?

Touché.

 

[lafrisbee]

Rob Mauer’s expectations beaten by 245% on Tesla Q3 Earning calls.
Now that is impressive

Not if you're Rob.

 

[The Accountant]

GAAP Profit Excluding Regulatory Credits

My calculations show that Tesla likely would have been GAAP positive without the Regulatory Credits.
If Reg Credits are to be excluded from Revenue, then the associated Income Tax expense must also be excluded to achieve a true Pro Forma P&L. Assuming a 20% Income Tax rate on the Reg Credits, Tesla has GAAP Income of $13m when excluding these credits:

 

[mejojo]

Well...

View attachment 601007

Do I understand that their basic premise is that billions of CAPEX produces $0 value?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Gettin' a download now. Maybe I'm an Expert Driver?
Please!!!

 

[Cosmacelf]

Gettin' a download now. Maybe I'm an Expert Driver?
Please!!!

If you check your app before you install, it'll tell you the new version number of the download before installing it.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

GAAP Profit Excluding Regulatory Credits

My calculations show that Tesla likely would have been GAAP positive without the Regulatory Credits.
If Reg Credits are to be excluded from Revenue, then the associated Income Tax expense must also be excluded to achieve a true Pro Forma P&L. Assuming a 20% Income Tax rate on the Reg Credits, Tesla has GAAP Income of $13m when excluding these credits:

View attachment 601016

This really should be forwarded to those that usually end up going on CNBC.....so Ross, Gali. Pierrer, etc.....so that the second CNBC hosts call out that they would've posted a loss...this can be the rebuttal

 

[FrankSG]

Fantastic numbers.

This is the beginning of the most amazing production ramp-up ever. Shanghai 3 and Fremont Y will finish ramping in Q4, and then throughout 2021 and 2022 Shanghai 2nd phase, Berlin, and Texas will all reach volume production.

Tesla's TTM deliveries may only be ~440k, Tesla's production capacity 2 years from now will comfortably exceed 2M, perhaps be as high as 3M. Imagine what revenues, margins, and profits will look like then!

 

[dc_h]

Some Tesla folks on the conference call, that deserves some credit besides Elon and Zach:

RJ Johnson, Energy Operations,

Carl Peterson, Sr. Director of Energy HW,

Drew Baglino, SVP Powertrain and Energy Engineering (Battery Day)

Was there anyone else?

I like having more senior leadership talking. The rest of leadership speaks from rehearsed notes and seem to plan for expected questions and avoid over answering. Elon is amazing and Tesla would not exist without him, but he speaks extemporaneously and dives into the critical path issues he’s fixated on and I think it overstates some risks and likely confuses some of the not so bright finance people. I think having leadership speak also highlights the many business units that will be Fortune 500 companies in their own right.
Tesla AI
Tesla Energy Storage
Tesla Solar
Tesla FSD
Tesla Auto
Tesla Mobility (Robotaxi)
Tesla Chip Design
Tesla Manufacturing Technology (Grohmann, etc)

 

[SOULPEDL]

If you check your app before you install, it'll tell you the new version number of the download before installing it.

2020.40.8
It adds the glove box pin.
BUY!!!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The cnbc coverage is hilarious. Trying to paint the Berlin/Austin ramp comment as a delay. Lol

 

[dww12]

I don't understand why. It is like they all think that having FSD on their existing Tesla adds no resale value. Which is proven false.

I understand it depreciates, but then they are willing to pay a fee, $1k?, to transfer it. It just makes no sense to me.

If you are trading a FSD car into Tesla, FSD is worth 0 for them, because they could just as easily add it to a trade in without it. If you sell private (to get some of the value of FSD) then you lose the sales tax advantage of trading your used car to Tesla. It makes trading a 1-2 year old Model 3 into Tesla about $5k more expensive because you have FSD and want FSD on the new car. If they let you pay $1k for FSD for your new car that would generate a lot more trade ins. My trade in quote for a red P3D- with FSD with 30k mi was $41k. Probably no different from one without FSD. If I got $47k from a private party I would lose $4,000 in trade in tax savings.

 

[SOULPEDL]

The cnbc coverage is hilarious. Trying to paint the Berlin/Austin ramp comment as a delay. Lol

Ya, and saw it somewhere else today. Elon was using 12-18... maybe 12-24 months for a factory ramp in general as a hypothetical was all. It's certainly not plan, but if that's all they want to focus on, we're in great shape!

 

[dakh]

GAAP Profit Excluding Regulatory Credits

My calculations show that Tesla likely would have been GAAP positive without the Regulatory Credits.
If Reg Credits are to be excluded from Revenue, then the associated Income Tax expense must also be excluded to achieve a true Pro Forma P&L. Assuming a 20% Income Tax rate on the Reg Credits, Tesla has GAAP Income of $13m when excluding these credits:

View attachment 601016

As was discussed on the call, if we're removing reg. credits to understand how the business is doing, would make sense to also remove 543M of SBC. Which would make this over half a B profitable quarter.