Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kengchang]

I wonder how many politicians we have here?
Tesla performed beyond any of your wildest expectations under Trump. WAAAAAY BEYOND! And yet the concensus seems to be Tesla would do much better under an unknown leader.
The number we can't mention? Well you all must be high if you expect Tesla to benefit more from Biden than it did from Trump. It isn't the government that makes Tesla as good as it is. It is Elon. period.

The current EPA that's trying to rollback MPG and emission requirement is good for Tesla?

If only Elon matters then why would Trump/Biden matter?

 

[Tslynk67]

I wonder how many politicians we have here?
Tesla performed beyond any of your wildest expectations under Trump. WAAAAAY BEYOND! And yet the concensus seems to be Tesla would do much better under an unknown leader.
The number we can't mention? Well you all must be high if you expect Tesla to benefit more from Biden than it did from Trump. It isn't the government that makes Tesla as good as it is. It is Elon. period.

A grown-up President will work wonders for the USA in normalising international relations, rolling-back punitive and petty trade tariffs, which will aid business overall AND reduce the financial burden for American citizens.

So yes, it will be good for Tesla, regardless off whether the DEMS have control of the Senate.

 

[Ameliorate]

I wonder how many politicians we have here?
Tesla performed beyond any of your wildest expectations under Trump. WAAAAAY BEYOND! And yet the concensus seems to be Tesla would do much better under an unknown leader.
The number we can't mention? Well you all must be high if you expect Tesla to benefit more from Biden than it did from Trump. It isn't the government that makes Tesla as good as it is. It is Elon. period.

Disagree - Tesla was small enough to be held down by short sellers and media on behalf of oil and other competing interests. 2020 and profitability was enough to break the clutches (somewhat). Tesla was held down under Obama and most of Trump's term. The prosperity of Tesla this year is owed only to Elon and Tesla employees - please do not give away credit for their hard work. The trajectory of the company won't change much under either president going forward.

 

[MC3OZ]

It's been reported in earlier videos and elsewhere that many of these power poles are major transmission lines owned by Austin Energy, (coming from/to the adjacent Sand Hill Energy Centre). It's generally impractical, not permitted or prohibitively expensive to move these types of lines. The site plans revealed through the planning process showed easement zones and limits to construction within proximity of these lines and it appears Tesla have been adhering to this. I'd suggest the major power lines are there to stay and that the works will continue to be planned around them.

New columns appeared on a truck in the most recent video and these could be installed by using smaller mobile cranes driven onto site. Looking at other developments in the area (eg Amazon) it looks like steel framed structure is the preferred construction method. While not as sophisticated as the precast concrete used at Berlin, steel framing can still go up very quickly. The outer walls could still be precast panels (strip footings appearing along the North wall line indicate these) but there are other options. Given the current pace of footer construction, more steel framing should be starting any day now.

I am refering to the smaller wooden power poles, I should have made that clear.

I agree on smaller cranes. There are multiple buildings within the outer perimeter walls. If the walls within the perimeter are lighter weight, that may mean bigger panels and faster construction.

 

[Nocturnal]

I wonder how many politicians we have here?
Tesla performed beyond any of your wildest expectations under Trump. WAAAAAY BEYOND! And yet the concensus seems to be Tesla would do much better under an unknown leader.
The number we can't mention? Well you all must be high if you expect Tesla to benefit more from Biden than it did from Trump. It isn't the government that makes Tesla as good as it is. It is Elon. period.

Tesla probably wouldn't be here today without friendly Dem policies from the CA and US governments. Going from leadership that is hostile to green tech to one that is supportive would undoubtedly help.

 

[lafrisbee]

Sidebar: Innovation does best under trying conditions, especially against the established entities. Biden will make it soft for all EV startups. If you want to save the world then I can see Biden being your guy. If you want Tesla to win the market then Trump might be an asset.

 

[MC3OZ]

There will be lots more cranes on site soon. The footers need about 2 weeks for the concrete to cure, but I think the main hold up has been in designing the structure and bringing the steel suppliers up to speed, there are delays in design, specification, bidding, selection, manufacture and logistics. While the body-in-white and general assembly sections are pretty standard buildings, the paint shop has unique features.

Much less snow, but Austin still has strong winds, rain and similar temperature range - just a bit higher.



I'm wondering if the plans have changed and there is not going to be a temporary switchyard. There seems to be no sign that it is being constructed, while the permanent switchyard has had the land leveled. I think they will add in an underground line from the sub-station across the river to the permanent switchyard along the existing right-of-way. It is not obvious how they would get power to a temporary switchyard.

Agree about removing many of the powerpoles, the high voltage lines along the right-of-way will probably stay, as will the gas pipeline. I was surprised when they added the line in to the concrete batch plant across what I assumed would be phase 2.



The relevance to investment is that the faster Austin (and Berlin and Shanghai) can ramp, the more revenue Tesla has both in the medium term due to increased production in the next couple of years and in the longer term due to first mover advantage.

I'm not 100% sure on the temporary switchyard myself. But if they have retained it they have moved it, and close to the small retention pond is where I would put it.

I think phase 2 is east of the temporary batch plant, the plant may be closer to phase 2 than phase 1.

At least some of the area near the switchyard is parking and logistics.
A car park area separating the phases makes sense to me.

 

[insaneoctane]

I am really wondering what's wrong with TSLA. In the past 2 month, my NIO stock grew 100% while TSLA is down by 5-10%. And the value of my NIO shares went up from a fraction of TSLA to more than 70%.

Just means you have too much NIO...

 

[StealthP3D]

Sidebar: Innovation does best under trying conditions, especially against the established entities. Biden will make it soft for all EV startups. If you want to save the world then I can see Biden being your guy. If you want Tesla to win the market then Trump might be an asset.

Sigh...Tesla doesn't have to "win the market" to win big. The market is huge, Tesla just needs to be able to go about their business without distortions in the energy markets (huge fossil fuel subsidies) and artificial barriers to trade.

 

[abasile]

Well Tesla chances of new EV tax credit is SOL, which gives other manufacturers except GM the advantage back. Having some kind of zev credit program is also SOL. I think if US had a Biden win mandate, Tsla would be a different story. Just be glad Tsla didn't drop like a rock unlike solar stocks.

My understanding is that opposition from Trump, rather than pushback from the legislative branch, is primarily what killed prospects for a new EV tax credit. With Biden as President, we very well could see something passed. Also, the legislation that initially established the EV tax credit was signed by Republican former President George W. Bush, and members of Congress from states like Texas, Nevada, and Tennessee represent factory workers who depend (or will depend) on EV manufacturing.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

That being said, I don't see a new tax credit as essential to Tesla's success, and from a policy standpoint, I'd prefer a revenue-neutral carbon tax. But passing a new EV tax credit would be better than the status quo.

 

[Jack6591]

I wonder how many politicians we have here?
Tesla performed beyond any of your wildest expectations under Trump. WAAAAAY BEYOND! And yet the concensus seems to be Tesla would do much better under an unknown leader.
The number we can't mention? Well you all must be high if you expect Tesla to benefit more from Biden than it did from Trump. It isn't the government that makes Tesla as good as it is. It is Elon. period.

I vote for science.

 

[insaneoctane]

I’m afraid I don’t agree. The pollsters’ job has become harder and perhaps not really possible anymore. You can’t make a silk purse from a sows ear or, to put it another way, garbage in garbage out.

When I was a youngster, I went to parochial schools in a relatively conservative place. Those adults (unlike some mouthy youngsters ) who disagreed with the dominant dogma watched their mouths.

Now, people of a even centrist bent, much less a conservative one, in populous places have learned — in public schools, in the universities, through the good offices of their HR department — to keep their views to themselves.

The point is, if one view or another dominates to the point of being able to shout down opposing views, don’t expect civic discourse or the polls to reflect all of the people’s actual opinions.

For example, the island I live on now is similar to Silicon Valley where I used to live. You see a decent smattering of pro-Biden and BLM signs. I was informed the Trump signs are routinely taken here as there.

I am beyond grateful for the secret ballot. I’m also glad that the nonsense (all of it from anywhere and anybody) reaches a fever pitch only once every four years.

Hopefully it won’t be terribly long before I’ll be able to resume wading through the papers in search of the odd nugget of journalism.

Maybe their job is harder. But as someone who clearly values disruption, harder should not be a free pass for wrong. The Trafalgar group did significantly better with their innovative polling.

 

[YAWD]

Sidebar: Innovation does best under trying conditions, especially against the established entities. Biden will make it soft for all EV startups. If you want to save the world then I can see Biden being your guy. If you want Tesla to win the market then Trump might be an asset.

Exactly! Chinese EV companies have the support of CCP since last 10 years and yet its Tesla that has the most advanced EV tech. Other countries have been supporting clean energy with credits and helpful regulations but US leads the world in utility scale battery installations. Despite Trump's rhetoric, coal has continued to go down in US. This year 60% of energy generation capacity installed is clean tech.

IMHO, all clean energy and EV need right now is less regulation and level playing field.

 

[Tim S]

AP and CNN just called Wisconsin for Biden.

 

[larmor]

Sigh...Tesla doesn't have to "win the market" to win big. The market is huge, Tesla just needs to be able to go about their business without distortions in the energy markets (huge fossil fuel subsidies) and artificial barriers to trade.

Lets add in the carbon market, and if it remains or expands, i'm totally behind tesla maximizing this as a revenue stream. In the meantime, they make a damn good car. If the Chinese markets open up, then other auto manufacturers will have to innovate and get EVs out asap (instead of standing behind a virtual trade wall), and as state above, the market is huge...

 

[Dutchie]

Seems there was a huge number of people who voted yesterday. To all my American friends who voted, and voted for the right candidate, thank you. As you can see the vote does matter!

 

[insaneoctane]

Couple thoughts on the EV subsidy...

• Tesla has PROVEN that they can be wildly successful even after the subsidy is used up for them. By properly using their subsidies to position themselves for competitiveness, the subsidy was effective.
• Most other manufacturers are "squandering" the advantage of their subsidy making fairly unpopular compliance cars instead of using the infusion of free margin to get a leg up. They will continue to take the free money, but do not seem particularly motivated to use it to position themselves into the future EV market... Not very effective.
• While the subsidy is intended to accelerate the transition to ZEV, it is getting mixed results (per above) with taxpayer dollars
• I'd be okay leaving the EV subsidy alone / as-is IF we ended oil/gas subsidies
• Ironically, not only should oil/gas not have subsidies, but they should have a slowly increasing (decades, not months) environmental offset fee (that clearly fund innovative GHG reduction solutions) since they are creating the expensive environmental problem that costs money and that we have to fix. I'm not interested in destroying industries overnight, but rather nudging them in the RIGHT direction.

 

[Tslynk67]

AP and CNN just called Wisconsin for Biden.

Just NV and MI need to call and that's it...

 

[Singuy]

My understanding is that opposition from Trump, rather than pushback from the legislative branch, is primarily what killed prospects for a new EV tax credit. With Biden as President, we very well could see something passed. Also, the legislation that initially established the EV tax credit was signed by Republican former President George W. Bush, and members of Congress from states like Texas, Nevada, and Tennessee represent factory workers who depend (or will depend) on EV manufacturing.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

That being said, I don't see a new tax credit as essential to Tesla's success, and from a policy standpoint, I'd prefer a revenue-neutral carbon tax. But passing a new EV tax credit would be better than the status quo.

Our current election decided how the republicans legislate with or without Trump. If Biden won a landslide yesterday while caused the senate to flip, then the GOP may reconsider their strategy of being the Trump GOP, but perhaps go back more to their roots like a GWB GOP. However, the election yesterday signaled to the senators that keeping their seats means they have to continue to be the Trump GOP even without Trump in the future as it's what works. So this is why I am bearish on any new EV legislation.

 

[capster]

Maybe their job is harder. But as someone who clearly values disruption, harder should not be a free pass for wrong. The Trafalgar group did significantly better with their innovative polling.

A number of people here made TSLA investment decisions based on the various poll results some of whom may be smarting just now.

Those here who hinted that the poll results perhaps couldn’t be taken at face value were, imho, trying to be helpful. I’m not (nor are others I expect) giving the pollsters a free pass. I’ve no interest in making value judgements, I’m only really interested in the value of their judgements so to speak.

As you say, improvements are possible. Almost anything can be improved.

However, my point remains: If those of a particular persuasion do not participate in polls or lie to pollsters, the results will be less reliable. In my opinion, that is what has and is happening. (There are further reasons besides to be wary of polls, but I won’t trouble folks with those.)

Thank you for the tip about Trafalgar. There must be a witticism about predicting the performance of pollsters I might make, but it eludes me at the moment.