Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Speedr117]

Maybe a credit upgrade? I would really like that for Christmas.

Wouldn't be a surprise to us, but would probably give Chanos and the gang a stroke.

Once in the S&P, they'll have a vested interest in keeping the price from dropping like crazy right away and increasing volatility. Therefore, I wouldn't be surprised to see S&P upgrade Tesla's credit rating shortly after inclusion.

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

Once in the S&P, they'll have a vested interest in keeping the price from dropping like crazy right away and increasing volatility. Therefore, I wouldn't be surprised to see S&P upgrade Tesla's credit rating shortly after inclusion.

I said the same thing to several tweets free TSLA announced last offering and some on Twitter said we should see Credit rating upgrade next couple days. I expect like you, Moody’s will upgrade after the 21st to help any potential post inclusion selloff.

 

[vikings123]

Citadel Advisors has only held small stakes in TSLA. I believe it is an algo based hedge fund.

Citadel Securities is a TSLA options market maker, and it still holds >5% of Tesla, because it has not updated the 13G it filed earlier this year.

However, there is no way it will manipulate away the S&P inclusion. A market maker is not in the business of manipulating or making directional bets, it makes profits off of the spread and does its best to hedge away any delta exposure to the underlying stock.

Yes, Citadel could technically sell all its shares and have a large influence on S&P inclusion, but it won't, because it'd be screwing itself over. Citadel needs those shares to sell to DITM options holders when they exercise, and to stop itself from losing tens of billions of dollars the next time the stock moves up.

Thanks. I did not see Citadel’s name in your Q3 holders pdf. Is that filed under a different category?

Greater than 5% ownership would put them second on that list. Correct?

 

[PeterJA]

My interpretation was he was stating that 18650 cells are going to be used with a new (structural?) pack architecture....

I don't think so. Why would they change the pack architecture using old-size cells, then have to change it again later using new-size cells? The 4680 packs will have a totally different cooling system (cooled from the cell ends instead of the sides) in addition to being structural. You can't do that with 18650s, even if you can make them structural.

The timeline of late 2021 for Plaid, doesn't stack up against this shutdown and this leak.

It certainly doesn't. Maybe new packs and other refreshes are coming now, and Plaid with new motors later.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Technical & pack architecture stuff goes in the more technical forums.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Meet The Fiskers, The Billionaire Power Couple Taking On Tesla

"The Fiskers describe the new venture as a “digital car company” that’s outsourcing production instead of building its own factories to hold down costs. Fisker is buying most of its core components–including the batteries and electric motors–from outside suppliers. Parts maker Magna, which also builds vehicles under contract for BMW, Daimler, Jaguar Land Rover and Toyota, formed an alliance with Fisker in October and will build the Ocean at its Graz, Austria, plant. As part of the deal, Magna also acquired a 6% stake in Fisker."

 

[FrankSG]

Thanks. I did not see Citadel’s name in your Q3 holders pdf. Is that filed under a different category?

Greater than 5% ownership would put them second on that list. Correct?

I didn't include market makers in Q2, but it is there in Q3 (part of S&P part 2 blog post). It's #4, behind Elon, Susquehanna Securities (also a market maker), and Capital World Investors.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Yep. And my order says ‘prepare for delivery’ (no date given of course, that’d be all over the news here)

Has it always said this?

 

[FrankSG]

Meet The Fiskers, The Billionaire Power Couple Taking On Tesla

"The Fiskers describe the new venture as a “digital car company” that’s outsourcing production instead of building its own factories to hold down costs. Fisker is buying most of its core components–including the batteries and electric motors–from outside suppliers. Parts maker Magna, which also builds vehicles under contract for BMW, Daimler, Jaguar Land Rover and Toyota, formed an alliance with Fisker in October and will build the Ocean at its Graz, Austria, plant. As part of the deal, Magna also acquired a 6% stake in Fisker."

Nikola 2.0 aka Theranos 3.0

Fisker is like a cockroach. It just won't die.

Although more EVs on the roads is a great thing, Fisker seems motivated purely by money and fame. First, he screwed over Tesla by intentionally creating bad designs while launching a competitor, and now he seems to have relaunched his car business for a 3rd time to get rich off of the sky high valuations given to EV companies and new IPOs/SPACs.

Tesla Sues Fisker over Electric-Car Designs

Fisker also seems to use strategies from Donald Trump's playbook, because he strategically lets his companies go bankrupt:

Fisker May Go Bankrupt Again Just For the Fun of it

The recently sort-of-saved Fisker Automotive doesn’t care if expensive plug-in hybrids cause the company to go bankrupt a second time.

 

[Big Time]

Ok. Futures are up. Off to a good start

 

[Opus BC fan]

Has it always said this?

Yes. This is not new. Mine has said the same thing since I ordered.

 

[2daMoon]

No. Tesla will be a volatile stock as long as they are innovating rapidly and expanding production at ever increasing rates.

To be clear, what I was asking wasn't so much about volatility as it was about the effect of many, many more shares being held by entities that are more likely to hold rather than trade.

How will the ratio between HODLish and non-HODLish shareholders changing due to the listed factors affect things?

Or, are you saying there will be no affect due to the increased number of shareholders with an obligation to maintain specific levels of TSLA?

It is understood that the disruptive nature of the company will constantly be changing the playing field (upward trend I mentioned exists because of this) and the MMs will still be doing what they do to make money, no doubt.

 

[FireMedic]

So this is all anecdotal but as pertinent as at least half the posts I’ve read this week; so here goes.

Mom has been on the sidelines wanting to buy a tesla for the right reasons but not ready for other good reasons. When I texted her this morning about the free year supercharging on model Y if delivered by EOY, she bit.

1 hour later; order placed, financing figured and approved...I called back my local rep. and he said that during their morning sales meeting there was still a 99% chance of having the vehicle delivered by EOY if order was finalized today.
This is in Fremont, Ca., so experiences could vary by location.

The rep also mentioned that they are soliciting help from volunteers for moving and washing Teslas to facilitate the EOY sales push. (My 7 yo son said “please papa, can we go wash some Y’s for Elon”)...If only my wife wouldn’t murder me for turning down overtime at work in exchange for washing Teslas for free

 

[Rammstein]

Anybody else can’t wait for the next month?

- S&P inclusion

- Beginning of January production and delivery numbers

- Later half of January Q1 earnings

- Now rumoured S&X refresh

- Probably wide release beta fsd Q1

I almost feel like we are at the climax of the first movie that is the Tesla story. Which is just the start with many movies to follow.

 

[heltok]

Anybody else can’t wait for the next month?

- S&P inclusion

- Beginning of January production and delivery numbers

- Later half of January Q1 earnings

- Now rumoured S&X refresh

- Probably wide release beta fsd Q1

I almost feel like we are at the climax of the first movie that is the Tesla story. Which is just the start with many movies to follow.

One thing that is frustrating with being a Tesla investor, there is always that next quarter where they finally will:
-show profit from X
-ramp factory Y
-release new hardware Z
-release new software Å
-etc etc

For the last 3 years I haft felt ”I can’t wait for next quarter where it finally should be obv that Tesla is winning and are gonna be super profitable”. I still feel like that and I have a feeling that I will have that feeling for the next decade even if everything goes well.

Q4 2020 should be epic. Model Y ramp China also. FSD will be awesome. 4680. Semi. Cybertruck. Model 2. Robotaxi. EVTOL. HVAC. DOJO. Etc etc. Can’t wait for next month, year, decade!

 

[chiptoe]

And don’t forget Cybertruck update this month

 

[ZeApelido]

Anybody else can’t wait for the next month?

- S&P inclusion

- Beginning of January production and delivery numbers

- Later half of January Q1 earnings

- Now rumoured S&X refresh

- Probably wide release beta fsd Q1

I almost feel like we are at the climax of the first movie that is the Tesla story. Which is just the start with many movies to follow.

Following Tesla is watching a soap opera.

Trading Days of Our Lives

The Young and the Restless TMCers

As the World Burns

All My Children Will Get TSLA Shares

Bold (Elon) and the Beautiful (me)

The Californians (Bill Hader voice)

 

[Big Time]

Following Tesla is watching a soap opera.

Trading Days of Our Lives

The Young and the Restless TMCers

As the World Burns

All My Children Will Get TSLA Shares

Bold (Elon) and the Beautiful (me)

The Californians (Bill Hader voice)

Like the suspenders on a clown, these are the days of our lives

 

[Tyler34]

To be clear, what I was asking wasn't so much about volatility as it was about the effect of many, many more shares being held by entities that are more likely to hold rather than trade.

How will the ratio between HODLish and non-HODLish shareholders changing due to the listed factors affect things?

Or, are you saying there will be no affect due to the increased number of shareholders with an obligation to maintain specific levels of TSLA?

It is understood that the disruptive nature of the company will constantly be changing the playing field (upward trend I mentioned exists because of this) and the MMs will still be doing what they do to make money, no doubt.

I'm on the side that thinks that since there will be less shares that can change hands daily it might be more volatile. Elon holds a large % and that certainly hasn't dampened the swings

 

[Mo City]

I'm not familiar with this guy at all, but an opinion on what Tesla should do in China. (TL:dr, move much faster).

https://twitter.com/DongyanWang8/status/1338326242513195008