agastya
Member
Sure, but if al these funds try to buy 120m shares, in open Market towards the close on Friday what will be the effect on the share price?
IMO, there's way too much focus on this being a large event, but in reality it is just mixing and matching 1.5% of your assets. If you compare the Aug runup due to speculation of the inclusion, and the post Nov-16 rise after S&P confirmation, it shows a lot of similarities - the only major difference is the trading volume.
But if you look at the trading volume between those two you will see it decrease consistently (which imo makes sense as the speculators largely exited their positions on Sep 8) and the ones who held probably are still holding them, and were not trading it anymore.
Price more or less stabilized between those two dates with a few swings here and there, but is largely consolidating, IMO, the shares that the funds need have been made available one way or the other with the extended time horizon the market has had to front run this.. Sure there could be a squeeze, but maybe 700-750. That's what my head says - my heart set a few GTC sell orders at 1200 to time it