Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SunCatcher]

"TMC Bar & Grill"...

Maybe they're leaving room for a new Nürburgring; Texas style? It would be such a hit; Americans from all over would flock to it to try their luck beating the Cybertruck with their modified F-150's & Monster Trucks. To no avail of course, and this would promote sales of Tesla cars and trucks even more. Losers could then go on over to the TMC Bar & Grill, to drown their sorrows in a pint of Elon the Trickster IPA, to go with their Nurburgring Burger & Fries, while they order their new Teslas online. Only to be told of course that they have to go to the end of a very long line.

When people are being silly, I sometimes find it hard to not join in...

Hey look, a big dip! $833? Wow, I'll have some of that!

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Hey look, a big dip! $833? Wow, I'll have some of that!

What just happened? A preset buy just triggered. News?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I'm desperately waiting for the 150kwh battery so I can tow a trailer. More efficiency in the car does not help that at all. And I have the sneaky feeling that I'm not the only one.

There's a fairly simple solution that keeps both Elon and the tower happy.....a 50kWh Tesla trailer.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

There's zero volume and MM's think they can push TSLA down to certainly below an $840 close. Very surprised to see no fund accumulation today on the dips, I thought people would feel FOMO about waiting til Inauguration week. Perhaps a great opportunity to buy calls for next Friday? That's basically a bet Wednesday isn't a total shitshow. Odds of that are right about 50/50.

Anywho....looks like the funds are taking a break from buying until the mantle has been passed for sure. Probably not a terrible idea. What happens when all goes relatively OK and the Robinhood gang is staring at $1400 in their checking accounts? And then earnings hits.

Gonna be a WILD 2 weeks. More volatility for sure.

 

[Singuy]

Huh, I wonder if people are de-risking prior to what they think will be a messy next week due to political unrest (MLK+ Biden inauguration is probably a good week for white nationalists to make a stand). My low volatility reit is shooting up as Tesla is tanking down. You can almost superimpose them on top of each other as opposites.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I'm surprised Tesla hasn't been down more earlier today. Almost every single ev/energy company on my watchlist is down 4-8% today.

Somehow the usd is strengthening though so not all bad.

 

[Tslynk67]

Robinhood options being sold off+ delta-hedges unloading + I suspect an opportunistic attempt at <$820 for the MM's

What I don't get is why this wouldn't be counteracted by those mythical benchmark funds gobbling-up the lower prices, but volume is dreadful.

 

[Nocturnal]

IBKR - "Hey, your 2023 TSLA $1500 is down 4% today".
Me "What? Why did I buy a $1500 call? That's crazy high and...oh, we aren't far from $900 right now. Ok then."

I surely can't be the only one that sometimes forgets how far we have come.

There's a fairly simple solution that keeps both Elon and the tower happy.....a 50kWh Tesla trailer.

Throw in a single model 3 drive unit. Regen breaking plus helping it push. Win.

 

[StealthP3D]

Somewhat related to this: am I the only one who has a sneaking suspicion that the listed ranges (e.g. 250+ miles, 300+ miles) for Cybertruck are what they expect when towing or carrying a heavy load? Such that the unloaded range may be substantially farther?

I don't really have anything to base this on, apart from the notion that a big towing hit to range with the 250-mile range model might make it a pretty unattractive option.

Is that why no one buys ICE trucks either? Because the big hit to range when towing makes them a pretty unattractive option? /s

What I've noticed in the real world is it's the expense of towing with ICE trucks that causes people to primarily tow locally. Contractors haul backhoes and tool trailers to the jobsite, people making runs to the dump, people picking up furniture and appliances from the big box stores, etc. None of these uses is beyond the range of a Cybertruck when towing.

There are very few use cases where it makes sense to tow pick-up truck sized loads long-distance. That's why we have semi trucks. Most RV'ers only hop 100-200 miles (or less) per change of campground. Because it costs 100 bucks a pop to fuel up and they don't want to be doing that but once a day. That said, I still don't see the Cybertruck being very popular amongst full time RV'ers. Don't worry, the market for Cybertruck is huge and extends well beyond full-time RV'ers!

 

[Chocochip]

Isn't range/100kwh on the efficiency of the car and not the battery? When it comes to energy density, it's about putting more kwh per similar weight. So a 100kwh wouldn't improve range for a model S that much as any range improvements would come from weight savings only which is something but not dramatic. The true range increase is from a 150kwh pack that is the same weight as the old 100kwh pack..this will yield the most range improvement.

Not sure if addressed already, but: the 4680 cells have a higher active-material-to-total-weight ratio. That’s the main point of making larger cells. This was explicitly shown during Battery Day when the cell size alone was described as enabling an increase of 16% in range compared to the 2170 cells! The gains are obviously larger compared to the 18650s they would replace in the Model S.

On top of that, the structural pack aims to remove “inert” redundant structural material from the battery pack and use the cell cans (which are present anyway) as structural elements. That saves weight, resulting in a lighter battery pack for the same total energy stored.

Lower total vehicle weight translates to lower power required for the same performance (although this changes with the speed of travel, as aerodynamic factors become significant at high speeds), meaning the stored energy is consumed at a lower rate. That results in a longer range.

All of the above is true without considering any cell improvements (chemistry etc.) other than the different cell form factor and the use of a structural pack architecture.

 

[CyberDutchie]

There's zero volume and MM's think they can push TSLA down to certainly below an $840 close. Very surprised to see no fund accumulation today on the dips, I thought people would feel FOMO about waiting til Inauguration week. Perhaps a great opportunity to buy calls for next Friday? That's basically a bet Wednesday isn't a total shitshow. Odds of that are right about 50/50.

Anywho....looks like the funds are taking a break from buying until the mantle has been passed for sure. Probably not a terrible idea. What happens when all goes relatively OK and the Robinhood gang is staring at $1400 in their checking accounts? And then earnings hits.

Gonna be a WILD 2 weeks. More volatility for sure.

This is gonna get pushed down to the mid 700’s over the next days/weeks, we’ve seen this before. Run-up prior to earnings, volume dries up, effort to push down as much as possible, media inflating “Wallstreet’s consensus number” to neutralize any earnings surprise. Day after earnings small gain, week after earnings more gain to end back to where we started.

 

[jerry33]

Is that why no one buys ICE trucks either? Because the big hit to range when towing makes them a pretty unattractive option? /s

What I've noticed in the real world is it's the expense of towing with ICE trucks that causes people to primarily tow locally. Contractors haul backhoes and tool trailers to the jobsite, people making runs to the dump, people picking up furniture and appliances from the big box stores, etc. None of these uses is beyond the range of a Cybertruck when towing.

There are very few use cases where it makes sense to tow pick-up truck sized loads long-distance. That's why we have semi trucks. Most RV'ers only hop 100-200 miles (or less) per change of campground. Because it costs 100 bucks a pop to fuel up and they don't want to be doing that but once a day. That said, I still don't see the Cybertruck being very popular amongst full time RV'ers. Don't worry, the market for Cybertruck is huge and extends well beyond full-time RV'ers!

RV'ers want a converted Tesla Semi.

 

[corduroy]

I don't think this drop is anything about TSLA, just macros dumping on bank earnings, vaccine rollout issues, ongoing political turmoil, fear of new taxes around stimulus - take your pick.

 

[Phobi]

BUY MORTIMER! BUY!

 

[SOULPEDL]

This is gonna get pushed down to the mid 700’s over the next days/weeks, we’ve seen this before. Run-up prior to earnings, volume dries up, effort to push down as much as possible, media inflating “Wallstreet’s consensus number” to neutralize any earnings surprise. Day after earnings small gain, week after earnings more gain to end back to where we started.

More of my buys hit. $825 truck loaded, pulling up the $804.01 truck, remember that one? (Was to beat someone's $804 bid, lol it's still in play). FYI, didn't miss a thing.

 

[Curt Renz]

What just happened? A preset buy just triggered. News?

This is a monthly options expiration day. More interest than a typical weekly, but less than a quarterly (triple witching).

TSLA share volume had been rather light for such a day. That made it easier for big options writers (mainly hedge funds and market makers) to target the share prices that allow them to keep the largest amount of their premiums. Meanwhile, many retail option owners get shut out.

The manipulators hope to trigger the stop loss limits of retail investors, which leads to a cascading effect. Such manipulation has costs, but the options expire today and share trades can be reversed on Tuesday.

The intended victims today appear to be retail stock traders and call buyers at strikes from $820 to $840. It's likely only a temporary storm for HODL long-term shareholders.

 

[Knightshade]

Except that's where Tesla is going, unless you think the Cybertruck and Model S plaid are BS. There's only so much efficiency they can extract out of a 100kwh pack if you want 500 miles range+.

Model S plaid is real, but will be very low volume for very high cost (and thus a fair bit of margin even though they're using 2 cars worth of cells).

They can put 150 kwh of cells in a car that costs what 3 Model Ys does.

They can't do that (in a way that makes any sense) in a regular S that costs only 1.5x what a 75 kwh Model Y does.

Same reason the RWD Y turned out to be an SR... they can build 3 of those instead of 2 LRs for roughly the same # of cells.

 

[Unpilot]

I think this drop is demand related.
Yep demand is drying up....big problem this demand issue.

Yep.

 

[adiggs]

Maybe they're leaving room for a new Nürburgring; Texas style? It would be such a hit; Americans from all over would flock to it to try their luck beating the Cybertruck with their modified F-150's & Monster Trucks. To no avail of course, and this would promote sales of Tesla cars and trucks even more. Losers could then go on over to the TMC Bar & Grill, to drown their sorrows in a pint of Elon the Trickster IPA, to go with their Nurburgring Burger & Fries, while they order their new Teslas online. Only to be told of course that they have to go to the end of a very long line.

When people are being silly, I sometimes find it hard to not join in...

Hey look, a big dip! $833? Wow, I'll have some of that!

You forgot the Teslaquilla.

 

[Singuy]

I don't think this drop is anything about TSLA, just macros dumping on bank earnings, vaccine rollout issues, ongoing political turmoil, fear of new taxes around stimulus - take your pick.

This last part of the dip is def more Tesla than other stocks.