Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cape Coddess]

This may account for the drop just before pre-market

Yes, absolutely. My email came in at 5:52 a.m. EST

 

[Nocturnal]

Agreed. I don't see this either. BYD is not a leader in battery tech, even though they make a lot of batteries. But AFAIK it's mainly iron phosphate which isn't really the future. And their cars are... well... let's say they play in another league than Tesla.

I suppose that could be the point. Instead of selling junk versions of Teslas to places like India, let BYD handle the down market? That's the only thing I could think of.

But why would Tesla trade 10% of it's shares and buy 10% of BYD shares to own 20% of BYD? That sounds like a horrible deal unless I'm misunderstanding.

 

[Tslynk67]

Yes, absolutely. My email came in at 5:52 a.m. EST

With an assist from the MM's and shorty, no doubt...

AFAIK it was already the case that these would be recalled, no? Didn't the US authorities decree something recently?

 

[Cape Coddess]

With an assist from the MM's and shorty, no doubt...

AFAIK it was already the case that these would be recalled, no? Didn't the US authorities decree something recently?

It was a suggestion from the NHSTA. We were waiting for Tesla to agree or disagree. They had 2 weeks. Looks like they have agreed.

 

[jerry33]

I don't know if it's denial, or just that you folks got lucky with you cars - maybe you only bought your Teslas recently, my two cars have been 2013 P85 and then 2016 XP100 (still current). The P85 must have been to service centre 20-30 times, including 4 DU replacements - those are forgivable, of course, the car was still in development. But the rattles that developed, particularly with the pano roof were unacceptable, and seemingly unfixable, which comes down to poor materials, fit and fix

FWIW, my built in Feb. 2013 85 S never had a rattle during the seven years, 130K miles I kept it. Not counting the annual services that they had back then, it had about four or five other services, two of which were 12V battery replacements during the first year and a half.

 

[Buddyroe]

CNN believes Tesla will sell less cars in the U.S. in 2024 than they did in 2020.

This is job one for President Biden in the climate debate and the push for electric cars - CNNPolitics

 

[The Accountant]

This may account for the drop just before pre-market

The cost of this recall was likely recorded with the Q4 2020 results as alluded to in the Q4 Update letter. Therefore it has been fully accounted for at 12-31-20 and will not have an impact to 2021 results.

Wording in the Q4 2020 Update:

Positive impact from volume growth and regulatory credit revenue growth YoY was mainly offset by lower ASP (including price
reduction of China-made Model 3 and price reductions of Model S and Model X before the introduction of updated models) but also by
a series of notable items. These included a portion of Q4 SBC charges, vehicle warranty accruals, additional supply chain costs, Model S and Model X changeover costs and other items.​

 

[cusetownusa]

EV Sales: Global Top 20 - December 2020

thanks for this info... looks like it includes PHEV as well. Do you know if they released an analysis of just full EV sales? To me that is more relevant as I believe PHEV are just a temporary measure in the transition to full EVs.

 

[Cape Coddess]

The cost of this recall was likely recorded with the Q4 2020 results as alluded to in the Q4 Update letter. Therefore it has been fully accounted for at 12-31-20 and will not have an impact to 2021 results.

Wording in the Q4 2020 Update:

Positive impact from volume growth and regulatory credit revenue growth YoY was mainly offset by lower ASP (including price
reduction of China-made Model 3 and price reductions of Model S and Model X before the introduction of updated models) but also by
a series of notable items. These included a portion of Q4 SBC charges, vehicle warranty accruals, additional supply chain costs, Model S and Model X changeover costs and other items.​

The cost of the recall is minuscule. There's another thread about this somewhere that goes into complete detail. Maybe search for MCU 1 recall to find it.

 

[Unpilot]

IF that pre-market dip was related to the recall....it is over as the SP has recovered nicely.
@843.5 as I write this.

 

[Cape Coddess]

IF that pre-market dip was related to the recall....it is over as the SP has recovered nicely.
@843.5 as I write this.

Except that America hasn't completely woken up to it yet.. so maybe we"ll get lucky.

Regardless, I dropped my buy order 20 bucks.

 

[Words of HABIT]

EV Sales: Global Top 20 - December 2020

Actual numbers are now in for 2020. Tesla had 16% share of global EV market.
By 2030, the EV market is expected to grow from 3% to 50% of all autos.
By 2035, EVs will make up 95% of all autos.
This is inevitable, as sure as the sun will come up tomorrow morning.
And because the sun will come up tomorrow morning.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Here's a fun video on wiebo of the China casting/biw process

微博

Via kelvin yang

 

[joh01652]

Write-up on Panasonic from Reuters:
Panasonic says Tesla business to be profitable, boosts profit outlook

Some key takeaways:
"Panasonic Corp said on Tuesday it expects its battery business supplying Tesla Inc to be profitable this fiscal year, and raised its full-year operating profit forecast by more than half."

"Panasonic announced in October that it was developing a new battery cell designed by Tesla, one that would help Tesla halve battery costs and ramp up battery production 100-fold by 2030."

"The Japanese electronics conglomerate is also planning to add a new production line at the Nevada factory it owns with Tesla, and is looking at building a lithium-ion battery business in Norway in a bid to tap European carmakers. Panasonic plans to start test production for the new line - for Tesla’s 4680 battery - in the year beginning April 1"

 

[Todd Burch]

I don't think the recall is really news. I got an email about a month or two ago saying that Tesla was considering replacing the touchscreens and reimbursing those who replaced them on their own. Sure, this makes it "official", but I think it's already priced in.

 

[Cobbler]

Here's a fun video on wiebo of the China casting/biw process

微博

Via kelvin yang
View attachment 633248

That 7-axis Fanuc getting the casting out of the machine...
The machine that creates the machines....
Impressive!!

 

[YAWD]

The Plaid also uses 18650 cells to deliver the performance and faster charging.

Clearly Plaid drive itself is a significant innovation, Elon has described it as "Alien Technology".

There is clearly some advance tech in that plaid powertrain. It is delivering ~ 50% more performance but the range drop is only 22 miles (5%). This tech is slowly going to make its way to all performance models (3/Y/Cybertruck). Basically more power with insignificant range loss in regular driving.

 

[tstolze]

I don't think the recall is really news. I got an email about a month or two ago saying that Tesla was considering replacing the touchscreens and reimbursing those who replaced them on their own. Sure, this makes it "official", but I think it's already priced in.

And not the 10's of millions in numbers like the airbag recalls other manufacturers are still dealing with.

 

[CyberDutchie]

I don't know if it's denial, or just that you folks got lucky with you cars - maybe you only bought your Teslas recently, my two cars have been 2013 P85 and then 2016 XP100 (still current). The P85 must have been to service centre 20-30 times, including 4 DU replacements - those are forgivable, of course, the car was still in development. But the rattles that developed, particularly with the pano roof were unacceptable, and seemingly unfixable, which comes down to poor materials, fit and fix

The X had to go to body-shop several times to try and straighten it out, the right side of the car was all over the place, the left side perfect. They never quite managed to resolve it. As for the the rattles and suspension creaks, I've now given up reporting as I don't want to waste Tesla's time, the only cure will be changing the car

Don't get me wrong, I lwill never buy anything other than a Tesla. The P85 was my favourite car of all time, warts-and-all, the good stuff made up for the garbage. But as I'm a "early adopter" and $TSLA investor, I'm likely more forgiving than that average buyer - and do I know several people that haven't bought a Tesla because of the crummy interiors

Anyway, here's hoping the new stuff is a lot better, eh?

I’m also an early adaptor, both my S and X were low thousand production numbers. While the cars have been far from perfect, they were still order of magnitude better than any other car I’ve ever owned.

I ordered the refreshed interior X within the first hour of the website going live, and same for CyberTruck. Likely going to run into some early production issues again but I just can’t wait to get to enjoy driving these new cars, life’s too short anyway.

 

[Todd Burch]

There is clearly some advance tech in that plaid powertrain. It is delivering ~ 50% more performance but the range drop is only 22 miles (5%). This tech is slowly going to make its way to all performance models (3/Y/Cybertruck). Basically more power with insignificant range loss in regular driving.

Different chemistry, yes--as Tesla mentioned in the quarterly conference call. But as some have noticed with the significant weight drop of the Plaid (was it 300+ pounds?), we can't discount the possibility that Tesla actually reduced the energy capacity of the Plaid pack (in kWh) in order to be able to make more of them. The top of a steering wheel doesn't weigh 300 pounds