Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Nocturnal
Supporting Member
It's probably the FUD around MIC quality issues.
To be fair he didn't say he was part of the team that wrote it. He could just eat lunch with the guys who did. Either way I've favorited his profile to stalk him in case he is legit.
He commented this a few hours ago.
We are also in close contact with the guys from leverj.io to bring decentralized Bitcointrading to everyone out there.
If that comes true then we know he is legit or semi-legit.
I have put this on the BEV competitor thread, but I now know that is not on a lot of people's reading list, so here you go 
:
==========
I have now compiled the global 2019 BEV and PHEV data using the same methodologies as I did with the 2020 global data. Thanks are due once again to EV Sales for many of the numbers for units sold. The battery GWh and revenue $$ numbers are generated from that using typical wiki/google data. Various other snippets have come from other places. All errors are of course mine - feel free to point out anything material. See my previous posts for methodology.
In my data set there are over 20 manufacturer groups being tracked by name, and of course more than that by manufacturer brand and even more by vehicle model. Although I am only accessing the public domain posts of EV Sales (note, I am not accessing their database which appears to be a commercial endeavour of theirs) it seems to me to be a matter of courtesy to not breakdown to the lower levels. It also seems unnecessary for the purposes of a TSLA investor's analysis needs, and in fact after sifting through the data you will see that I have concatenated everything below the top five into two further tiers, so only seven rows in all.
So here is the global Year-on-Year picture with the ranking on the basis of the 2020 cell consumption:
I think all TSLA investors know the good news. Allow me to make a few observations, which include some potential less good news.
1. With the exception of VAG and to a lesser extent Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi the big western or Japanese auto-makers struggle to get named positions in the top 20, and Toyota, Honda, Ford, Stellantis (FCA+PSA) and GM are pretty much absent even at model level. How the mighty have fallen, can they recover ? One could say the same of JLR etc given that Magna Steyr seem to be doing the actual work, and are probably the only one making a profit.
2. The battle of PHEV vs BEV is not yet over. Indeed because the big manufacturers committed so long ago to the PHEV pathway, and because those models are only now feeding through their very slow model introduction pipelines, the YoY growth in unit metrics is 78% PHEV vs 31% for BEV. The trend is even more apparent in the GWh metric as the legacy manufacturers are pushing just enough batteries in to get within the emissions caps, i.e. average PHEV batteries seems to have increased from 12kWh/car to 14kWh/car. This means that PHEV share of battery supply has actually increased in relative terms in the last year. I think this trend will flatten & decline, but those manufacturers are very motivated to overpay for their batteries as emissions caps are costly. That in turn will have a noticeable impact on market costs for cells for the next few years I suggest.
3. The average battery size of a BEV is steady YoY at 46kWh, and for Tesla probably steady at about 70kWh, however for VAG appears to be rising significantly from 51 to 65kWh. This may in part be an artifact of how I pulled together the dataset, but I think it is a) an indication that most BEVs are still under-ranged; b) that even Tesla is is still parsimonious with batteries but also still maintaining a clear premium; and c) an indication that VAG is intent on closing the gap and is indeed doing so. In this respect at least VAG 'get it' in both the short term driving range and in the longer term effects on cyclic performance and brand positioning.
4. TSLA's market share is relatively stable, i.e. TSLA is growing about as fast as the overall market. We suspect it is likely the only one making serious profit, but we are unsure of that as none of the others disclose their BEV/PHEV profitability.
5. TSLA was in a league of its own, but VAG is really working hard to close that gap, and it is not just being done by VAG's PHEV offerings. TSLA has achieved approximately 35% YoY growth last year irrespective of which metric one picks, but VAG has achieved 200% growth. In particular VAG managed to source an additional 13 GWh of cells during 2020 whereas TSLA only maged to source an additional 8 GWh of cells, i.e. however you cut it VAG did a good growth job. What is more VAG focussed those additional cells on bringing credible BEVs to market at scale rather than propping up their PHEV offering more than was necessary.
6. BYD's position is less clear. The data suggests their vehicle sales declined. That might be shortcomings in the data, or it might be that BYD had a relatively weak hand in models in the last year or so and instead has been focussing their efforts as a cell manufacturer. I note that BYD are currently the only major cell supplier that does not supply TSLA. One to watch.
7. The cell manufacturers are far less fragmented than the auto manufacturers. Historically it was BYD, CATL, LG, PAE vs about 20-30 auto manufacturers. This meant that the cell manufacturers were (imho) hoping to rein in TSLA's dominance and let the others catch up so as to play auto mfg against each other in a high margin scene where they managed the ramp rate to their own benefit(s). That is of course part of the reason why TSLA has reverse integrated with its 4680 effort, but - notably - why VAG etc have also coinvested with Northvolt etc to break the quadopoly.
8. Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi and Hyundai/Kia have maintained their relative market shares and grown in line with the market. As groups these appear to be focussing their cell supplies towards the better models, but are so far struggling to achieve far-enough above-trend growth without overpaying for cells to enable them to break into a higher league.
9. Much the same can be said for those in the 6-10 ranked positions (SAIC, BMW, GAC, Mercedes, NIO). Of those Mercedes has made the biggest improvements though it still has not caught up with BMW, and both seem still to be highly dependent on their compliance-driven PHEV offerings. In contrast SAIC's Wuling HongGuang Mini EV sells huge quantities but is a genuine BEV rather than being a compliance PHEV.
10. And "All Others" lost out, which is where indirectly VAG stole their cells from. This is notable as the All Others category saw total cell consumption fall from 22 to 17 GWh, a loss of 5 GWh (-23%) at a time of 36% market growth. This tells us a lot about how hard a time latecomers will have in obtaining at-scale cell supply, and indirectly it also tells us how hard it will be to get cost declines for stationary applications that cannot command a mobility premium. If Ford, Toyota, GM, Honda, Stellantis (PSA+FCA) do not put capital at risk in creating cell manufacturing this suggests they will really struggle to get meaningful scale in the next few years. some companies have very different cost of capital than others.
11. The battle of cell supply exhibits aspects of being both a zero sum game and a non-zero sum game. As a TSLA shareholder one needs to watch really carefully for the next few years to see whether TSLA will remain in a league of its own (30-34% market share by GWh) vs VAG in second place at only 16%, or alternatively whether VAG will be able to continue closing the ground on TSLA. Note VAG grew in one year from having a 6% market share to 16% market share by cell supply so it is possible that VAG can close this gap. My personal opinion is that TSLA will exhibit a growth spurt during 2021, though that does not mean that VAG might not do the same. Clearly it is a far more comfortable thing for TSLA to be twice the size of the nearest competitor than to have a near-peer competitor.
12. We as individual shareholders need to watch out for these industrial growth and adoption metrics. Not every company in this competition will be a winner, and success does not always go to the bold pioneers.
:==========
I have now compiled the global 2019 BEV and PHEV data using the same methodologies as I did with the 2020 global data. Thanks are due once again to EV Sales for many of the numbers for units sold. The battery GWh and revenue $$ numbers are generated from that using typical wiki/google data. Various other snippets have come from other places. All errors are of course mine - feel free to point out anything material. See my previous posts for methodology.
In my data set there are over 20 manufacturer groups being tracked by name, and of course more than that by manufacturer brand and even more by vehicle model. Although I am only accessing the public domain posts of EV Sales (note, I am not accessing their database which appears to be a commercial endeavour of theirs) it seems to me to be a matter of courtesy to not breakdown to the lower levels. It also seems unnecessary for the purposes of a TSLA investor's analysis needs, and in fact after sifting through the data you will see that I have concatenated everything below the top five into two further tiers, so only seven rows in all.
So here is the global Year-on-Year picture with the ranking on the basis of the 2020 cell consumption:
I think all TSLA investors know the good news. Allow me to make a few observations, which include some potential less good news.
1. With the exception of VAG and to a lesser extent Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi the big western or Japanese auto-makers struggle to get named positions in the top 20, and Toyota, Honda, Ford, Stellantis (FCA+PSA) and GM are pretty much absent even at model level. How the mighty have fallen, can they recover ? One could say the same of JLR etc given that Magna Steyr seem to be doing the actual work, and are probably the only one making a profit.
2. The battle of PHEV vs BEV is not yet over. Indeed because the big manufacturers committed so long ago to the PHEV pathway, and because those models are only now feeding through their very slow model introduction pipelines, the YoY growth in unit metrics is 78% PHEV vs 31% for BEV. The trend is even more apparent in the GWh metric as the legacy manufacturers are pushing just enough batteries in to get within the emissions caps, i.e. average PHEV batteries seems to have increased from 12kWh/car to 14kWh/car. This means that PHEV share of battery supply has actually increased in relative terms in the last year. I think this trend will flatten & decline, but those manufacturers are very motivated to overpay for their batteries as emissions caps are costly. That in turn will have a noticeable impact on market costs for cells for the next few years I suggest.
3. The average battery size of a BEV is steady YoY at 46kWh, and for Tesla probably steady at about 70kWh, however for VAG appears to be rising significantly from 51 to 65kWh. This may in part be an artifact of how I pulled together the dataset, but I think it is a) an indication that most BEVs are still under-ranged; b) that even Tesla is is still parsimonious with batteries but also still maintaining a clear premium; and c) an indication that VAG is intent on closing the gap and is indeed doing so. In this respect at least VAG 'get it' in both the short term driving range and in the longer term effects on cyclic performance and brand positioning.
4. TSLA's market share is relatively stable, i.e. TSLA is growing about as fast as the overall market. We suspect it is likely the only one making serious profit, but we are unsure of that as none of the others disclose their BEV/PHEV profitability.
5. TSLA was in a league of its own, but VAG is really working hard to close that gap, and it is not just being done by VAG's PHEV offerings. TSLA has achieved approximately 35% YoY growth last year irrespective of which metric one picks, but VAG has achieved 200% growth. In particular VAG managed to source an additional 13 GWh of cells during 2020 whereas TSLA only maged to source an additional 8 GWh of cells, i.e. however you cut it VAG did a good growth job. What is more VAG focussed those additional cells on bringing credible BEVs to market at scale rather than propping up their PHEV offering more than was necessary.
6. BYD's position is less clear. The data suggests their vehicle sales declined. That might be shortcomings in the data, or it might be that BYD had a relatively weak hand in models in the last year or so and instead has been focussing their efforts as a cell manufacturer. I note that BYD are currently the only major cell supplier that does not supply TSLA. One to watch.
7. The cell manufacturers are far less fragmented than the auto manufacturers. Historically it was BYD, CATL, LG, PAE vs about 20-30 auto manufacturers. This meant that the cell manufacturers were (imho) hoping to rein in TSLA's dominance and let the others catch up so as to play auto mfg against each other in a high margin scene where they managed the ramp rate to their own benefit(s). That is of course part of the reason why TSLA has reverse integrated with its 4680 effort, but - notably - why VAG etc have also coinvested with Northvolt etc to break the quadopoly.
8. Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi and Hyundai/Kia have maintained their relative market shares and grown in line with the market. As groups these appear to be focussing their cell supplies towards the better models, but are so far struggling to achieve far-enough above-trend growth without overpaying for cells to enable them to break into a higher league.
9. Much the same can be said for those in the 6-10 ranked positions (SAIC, BMW, GAC, Mercedes, NIO). Of those Mercedes has made the biggest improvements though it still has not caught up with BMW, and both seem still to be highly dependent on their compliance-driven PHEV offerings. In contrast SAIC's Wuling HongGuang Mini EV sells huge quantities but is a genuine BEV rather than being a compliance PHEV.
10. And "All Others" lost out, which is where indirectly VAG stole their cells from. This is notable as the All Others category saw total cell consumption fall from 22 to 17 GWh, a loss of 5 GWh (-23%) at a time of 36% market growth. This tells us a lot about how hard a time latecomers will have in obtaining at-scale cell supply, and indirectly it also tells us how hard it will be to get cost declines for stationary applications that cannot command a mobility premium. If Ford, Toyota, GM, Honda, Stellantis (PSA+FCA) do not put capital at risk in creating cell manufacturing this suggests they will really struggle to get meaningful scale in the next few years. some companies have very different cost of capital than others.
11. The battle of cell supply exhibits aspects of being both a zero sum game and a non-zero sum game. As a TSLA shareholder one needs to watch really carefully for the next few years to see whether TSLA will remain in a league of its own (30-34% market share by GWh) vs VAG in second place at only 16%, or alternatively whether VAG will be able to continue closing the ground on TSLA. Note VAG grew in one year from having a 6% market share to 16% market share by cell supply so it is possible that VAG can close this gap. My personal opinion is that TSLA will exhibit a growth spurt during 2021, though that does not mean that VAG might not do the same. Clearly it is a far more comfortable thing for TSLA to be twice the size of the nearest competitor than to have a near-peer competitor.
12. We as individual shareholders need to watch out for these industrial growth and adoption metrics. Not every company in this competition will be a winner, and success does not always go to the bold pioneers.
MTL_HABS1909
Member
Tesla designed the chip, but they don’t manufacture them.
corduroy
Member
Are we considering $849 a dip these days?
I first heard about this idea when I was living in Europe, in 2007. It was all talk, no action back then. Like nuclear powerplants, the NIMBY factor might well be a huge obstacle.
Dancing Lemur
Hoopy Frood
This $850 level has been important since it was first hit a month ago. Dips below it have tended to drop to support at 800.
It would be nice if the good guys rally here and cause a pop; otherwise it may be [6 more weeks of winter] a few more weeks of churn.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
It bothers me a little that VOLUME has been low for the last few days.
Have day traders abandoned TSLA or have all the robinhood crews gone bust ?
Have day traders abandoned TSLA or have all the robinhood crews gone bust ?
So, are we at 2/15/2021 yet?
The infrastructure bill and, practically, nothing regarding a climate-agenda spurred with the US Govt can get started until after this impeachment trial. As an aside:
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mltv
Member
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Yes, you should be VERY concerned! Assuming you work in the legacy auto or oil/gas industries, that is. These industries are already concerned about how fast the transition to renewables is happening but here's the funny part: It's going to happen even faster than you can even imagine. Randy Bachman said it best: You ain't seen n-n-n-n-nothing yet!
I was star-gazing on the deck of my ski cabin this morning from 4:30 am, no moon, dark skies, pondering the mystery of the sheer number of galaxies out there while enjoying the crisp but calm 22 degree air and pre-dawn silence. After a little more than 90 minutes had passed, a train of satellites appeared in a string, looking like a string of diamonds barreling across the sky from west to east. I only had about 40-degrees of open view, framed by tall trees, I could see about 6-8 at a time. I started counting at the first one and, over the next two minutes, they just kept coming until I had counted 60 in total!
The last time I saw freshly released Starlink satellites their trajectory was at nearly right angles and I missed most of them since I only saw 5 or 6. I was a little surprised this mornings display wasn't more spread out considering it's been 5 days since the launch so it must take some time to migrate into their proper orbits. Some were almost side-by-side, and some off-set, creating the appearance of a shallow zig-zag train across the pre-dawn sky. I imagined they were shiny little Bitcoins, arcing across the night sky and right into Tesla's coffers.
The last time I saw freshly released Starlink satellites their trajectory was at nearly right angles and I missed most of them since I only saw 5 or 6. I was a little surprised this mornings display wasn't more spread out considering it's been 5 days since the launch so it must take some time to migrate into their proper orbits. Some were almost side-by-side, and some off-set, creating the appearance of a shallow zig-zag train across the pre-dawn sky. I imagined they were shiny little Bitcoins, arcing across the night sky and right into Tesla's coffers.
Todd Burch
Voltage makes me tingle.
6 month chart. Pretty strong general consolidation around $850 since the beginning of the year. Historically, we see this plateau for awhile, then a run up. Go ahead market, I'm patient.
Biden to Issue Infrastructure Plan. What Role Will Microgrids Play?
"Sen. Lisa Murkowski, a Republican, has been a strong backer of microgrids for several years. Her home state, Alaska, is among the top states for number of installed microgrids. And, in the House, a microgrid developer is among its members: Rep. Sean Casten, a Democrat from Illinois, who was elected in 2018."
and
"“Right now, every voice is being raised in Washington, so it’s easy for good solutions to get drowned out in the noise,” said Cameron Brooks, president of E9 Insight, a regulatory advisory firm that focuses on the activities of the state public utility commissions across the country."
"Sen. Lisa Murkowski, a Republican, has been a strong backer of microgrids for several years. Her home state, Alaska, is among the top states for number of installed microgrids. And, in the House, a microgrid developer is among its members: Rep. Sean Casten, a Democrat from Illinois, who was elected in 2018."
and
"“Right now, every voice is being raised in Washington, so it’s easy for good solutions to get drowned out in the noise,” said Cameron Brooks, president of E9 Insight, a regulatory advisory firm that focuses on the activities of the state public utility commissions across the country."
phantasms
Supporting Member
Any of you options whisperers have any thoughts on where they're looking to push this thing today? Clearly a walkdown but where are they going?
edit: here we go.
edit..nevermind. they keep going for the big push but then it gets bought up right away. good sign! Still think it's going lower before a hard bounce.
edit: here we go.
edit..nevermind. they keep going for the big push but then it gets bought up right away. good sign! Still think it's going lower before a hard bounce.
You've hit on a lot of the reasons I believe we'll see two new factory announcements, namely access to more talent and the fact that they are sitting on a mountain of cash. Localized factories are human resource attraction plays. Universities around the world are pumping out engineering talent, and not all talent wants to emigrate to California or Texas. Having a localized design studio allows Tesla to continue its mission of attracting top talent around the world.
I interpret that Tesla now explicitly calling out its competencies in factory design, die casting, and manufacturing processes as a strong signal that they have a number of new locations already in mind. Locations may also not be limited solely to manufacturing facilities. I think we'll start seeing R&D centres as well as continued raw material or other supply chain investments.
Indonesia is definitely on the short list and an announcement in Q1-Q2 would not come as a surprise to anyone in this forum.
I'm not as bullish on India simply due to the business environment being historically very unfavorable towards foreign investment (extremely difficult to get capital in and out of India, and the tax authorities are notoriously aggressive and regularly raid offices without much cause). At one point I had equally expected an announcement for a Latin American factory, but for similar reasons to India, that may be further out than the near term. The exception may be Mexico, which could be a port of entry to Central and South America (significant Energy markets as well), and with new US administration that may be perceived to be more pro-globalized trade, that may be back on the table.
If I were throwing darts, Indonesia, another Asian country (Japan or South Korea perhaps), and Mexico would be my guess on near term announcements. I would also place equal weight on a potential US announcement for continued battery and other energy product development and manufacturing.
I have a hunch we are going to see the "Model 2" in production by next year, 2022. That's much sooner than I expected but it truly seems like it's very possible at this point.
If so that would be incredible.
phantasms
Supporting Member
Agreed, I see them unveiling it just before production as to not take away from Model 3 sales.
Prunesquallor
His cardinal virtue? An undamaged brain.
Even after Austin is up and running, Tesla will still be completely dependent on Fremont for worldwide Model S & X and North American Model 3 production. I think another U.S. (or North American) Giga is necessary to 1) protect against a Fremont Black Swan and 2) allow upgrade of Fremont assembly with acceptable production interruption.
Chunky Jr.
Supporting Member
I think if such a startup exists, Tesla has its eyes on it and would probably acquire it.
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