Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MikeC]

You kids today have it easy. Back in my day (2013), a Goldman Sachs downgrade would drop this stock 30% and keep it there for weeks. Nowadays, a panic selloff stops in 20 minutes and totally reverses in one day. That's not a dip... more like a dimple.

Also, get off my lawn.

Even worse - it was actually an upgrade!

"We increase our 6-month price target to $95 from $84 to reflect higher earnings estimates and is based on average stock price implied under 3 scenarios," wrote Goldman Sachs' analyst Patrick Archambault in a note to clients this morning.

GOLDMAN: Tesla's Stock Is Expensive Even In Our Most Optimistic Scenario

 

[kengchang]

I wonder if the recent changes to Model Y SR could partially just be Tesla using up inventory of 2170 SR packs.

If so, Nevada would covert all 2170 pack production to LR, and the Model 3 SR+ could use imported CATL LFP packs.

Some Nevada 2170 lines could covert to 4680 cells for the Semi. Having a supply of cells for the Semi is important.

It makes some sense to standardize of CATL LFP for Model 3 SR+ worldwide, yes there are some cold weather issues, which software can partially fix.

Eventually we may get packs made with 4680 LFP cells, and that is when the Model Y SR may return.

3 and Y SR uses the same pack.

LFP is not in cylindrical format.

 

[st_lopes]

Love this theory that Tesla buying BTC and Elon talking up cryptos is all part of a master plot to further deprive other automakers of chips!

https://twitter.com/enn_nafnlaus/status/1364383190312452102?s=21

 

[OrthoSurg]

Btw, not much discussed about Tiger Woods, but his leg injury could have been prevented if it was a tesla (which have excellent front collision protection/crumple zone).

I was thinking the same thing.
I was surprised thinking that he would probably not have been in an accident had he been using FSD.
On the other hand,if he had crashed using a Tesla while using FSD, that would have been the headline of every newspaper.

 

[ZsoZso]

Bill Gates confirms he shorted Tesla:

Spoiler

"I wish I was more on the long side"

That's what she (Melinda) said!
You all know why he named his company Micro-Soft, right ?

 

[MC3OZ]

3 and Y SR uses the same pack.

LFP is not in cylindrical format.

Yes, I know that.... that is what i mean by the 2170 SR pack...

The CATL LFP pack isn't cylindrical format, but Cylindrical LFP cells can be made.

 

[Beltsbear]

I wonder if the recent changes to Model Y SR could partially just be Tesla using up inventory of 2170 SR packs.

If so, Nevada would covert all 2170 pack production to LR, and the Model 3 SR+ could use imported CATL LFP packs.

Some Nevada 2170 lines could covert to 4680 cells for the Semi. Having a supply of cells for the Semi is important.

It makes some sense to standardize of CATL LFP for Model 3 SR+ worldwide, yes there are some cold weather issues, which software can partially fix.

Eventually we may get packs made with 4680 LFP cells, and that is when the Model Y SR may return.

There’s no converting one line type to the other. They may as well build a new line and keep the old one running. They’re just going to build new lines. The old lines might be improved, but they’re not gonna be shut off for a very long time. Tesla is very much Cell starved. I predict 2170 lines running to 2025. Only after tons of 4860 capacity is built will they close.

 

[Electroman]

OT:
View attachment 639285

Clickbait Elon hate reporting is par for the course for WP. But the comment section !! oh boy, the hate and the vitriol I see there is unbelievable. Seeking Alpha is a walk in the park compared to that.

 

[MC3OZ]

There’s no converting one line type to the other. They may as well build a new line and keep the old one running. They’re just going to build new lines. The old lines might be improved, but they’re not gonna be shut off for a very long time. Tesla is very much Cell starved. I predict 2170 lines running to 2025. Only after tons of 4860 capacity is built will they close.

Fair point, we don't know what would be involved in any conversion, and how much oven capacity GF Nevada has.

 

[Nolimits]

Are you saying we close just under 700 on Friday?

I want the SP to go up but if it’s still under $700 again on Friday. Going shopping for more. This month has been a big purchase spree. Buy and hodl. Where did all the headlines about analyst new price targets at 900-1200 and such go? Adam? Dan? Gene? Why so quiet. ?

 

[Cosmacelf]

Terrible reporting by the Washington (DC)* Post.

They cannot claim on one hand that Elon didn't respond to their email requests and then say he responded with a request of his own without directly contradicting themselves.

I thought it was rather impressive that they contradicted themselves in a short tweet. Takes skill to be that clueless.

 

[S3XY]

I've heard that you require a dedicated 200 amp circuit to get this level. This is really just a publicity stunt. Technically possible, but not practical for the vast majority of houses out there.

It might have a place for destination charging though.

 

[Cosmacelf]

So during the great Texas Snowvid event:

1) We lost power for ~3 days. No biggie we have a whole-house backup generator (I know, I know, but I got it pre-PowerWall). So I figure, we’re good. Got internet, got cell phone.

2) ComCast goes belly up. Not enough emergency power I guess. So no internet other than cell.

3) Verizon goes belly up. Not enough emergency power I guess. No phone, no 911, no internet.

4) Today, got the offer from StarLink Late 2021. I’m in.

Everyone who is figuring out Starlink margins and capacity constraints is not taking into account a pretty sizeable number of people that will buy Starlink and pay the monthly fee just for emergency backup, not to mention vacation homes that only get used part of the year.

Most ISPs do not have emergency power backup that can last more than 8 hours or so. A lot of ISP infrastructure has active electronics in the field. I've even seen "modern" all fiber networks that have field electronics. Field electronics are usually backed up by a UPS that can last hours...

Meanwhile most Starlink ground stations are in real generator backed data centers.

 

[S3XY]

Today I heard from two coworkers asking what is wrong with Tesla. When is going up I don't hear from them but when it goes down they are the first to text me. I think they enjoy when Tesla goes down; they know I made a lot of money. Lesson learned never talk about your investments with coworkers.

My response would be "What happened is another great buying opportunity." BTW, I took the opportunity to fund my, and my wife's, Roth's for this year and immediately converted it all to TSLA FTW.

 

[S3XY]

Everyone who is figuring out Starlink margins and capacity constraints is not taking into account a pretty sizeable number of people that will buy Starlink and pay the monthly fee just for emergency backup, not to mention vacation homes that only get used part of the year.

Most ISPs do not have emergency power backup that can last more than 8 hours or so. A lot of ISP infrastructure has active electronics in the field. I've even seen "modern" all fiber networks that have field electronics. Field electronics are usually backed up by a UPS that can last hours...

Meanwhile most Starlink ground stations are in real generator backed data centers.

I have been seriously considering this myself with the expectation to drop my current ISP once the Starlink dropouts get plugged.

 

[StealthP3D]

Between Cramer's tweets and CNBCs coverage, the extent of negative attention on ARK today was extremely odd. It's like they were waiting more than a year for ARK to have a down month and could finally break out the negative narratives they've saved up. As if a correction in tech stocks, which Cathy herself called and was ready for, is somehow indicative of a fatal flaw in her investment theses.

If Cathie Wood was a young male, Wall Street would christen him as their new "wonderboy" and celebrate his accomplishments while bestowing him with the utmost respect. A bad month would garner sympathy and understanding.

But Wall Street doesn't know what to do with a successful older woman except to show disbelief while hoping it was just a lucky streak so they can throw sugar on her the first time the market moves against her. Sexism is still rampant on Wall Street.

 

[BornToFly]

Maybe I'm out in left field, but I think that the funds that try to track the S&P and were late in buying TSLA (and had driven the price into the 800s) were handed a gift today. They were able to buy below the S&P inclusion price (helping us by bringing the SP from the low 600s back to 700 today). When the SP gets near the 800 range again, I think it will be capped for a while because these same funds will be selling the shares they had previously purchased above 700 now that they have been able to get replacement shares for less.

 

[dkemme]

If Cathie Wood was a young male, Wall Street would christen him as their new "wonderboy" and celebrate his accomplishments while bestowing him with the utmost respect. A bad month would garner sympathy and understanding.

But Wall Street doesn't know what to do with a successful older woman except to show disbelief while hoping it was just a lucky streak so they can throw sugar on her the first time the market moves against her. Sexism is still rampant on Wall Street.

I invest all of my non-TSLA dry powder in Ms. Wood's funds.

 

[StealthP3D]

Confession.
I put in a stop loss sell order for 500sh at $600 this morning (just for 1 day).
I stressed all day (especially when price went down to $620).
I was happy that the stock price closed around $700.
I bought 100sh (pre-split) in Feb 2016 @150/sh (in my HSA).
I will not do this again.

I'm totally confused. If you want to sell, just sell it at whatever price it's at.

Don't say "If it gets cheap enough, only then will I sell." That strategy should be used for buying, not selling.

When you hang a Stop Loss order out there, everyone can see it. It's like dangling a minnow over the side of your boat in shark infested waters. If it's big enough to be worthwhile, they just might walk the price down momentarily in order to snag it.

 

[Joe F]

Prove me wrong. Harmonize.

I’ll assume that since you’ve chosen not to respond, that you have reread my original post and realize you were wrong in publicly accusing me of some vague attempt to pump the SP. It’s okay; We all make mistakes...

I reported what was said on CNBC, and later posted with a link to same. At no time did I say that I had first hand knowledge of what the children on WSB were up to WRT TSLA.

I’ll not clutter the thread further, but if you still want me to “prove you wrong” we can take it to a DM. That, and I have a horrible singing voice, so I’m not interested in “harmonizing” with you.