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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Hello ladies and gentlemen. I got a ripping good yarn to tell you to explain me absence from the forum from the last week. Absent also from the stock ticker which has felt good. Due to Covid absolutely destroying my industry I’ve been glued to the ticker for a year. Also here in MN it’s tough to do anything during a regular winter let alone what’s happening now with the pandemic. All those things combined have left me very deeply embedded in my TSLA investment which has been good for the first half of the year but a little stressful last 3 months. I highly recommend you all get tied up in an international car smuggling ring like me for a distraction. Here’s the story.

Sorry mods if this is off topic but it is at least entertaining.

Last summer around my Bday I bought myself a 1976 Honda CB750, known as the worlds first super bike. Fun was had but I quickly realized I wasn’t riding my old motorcycle as much so I decided to sell it. It is a 1980 Honda . I posted it online and a young person came through to purchase the bike. He told me he could do a partial payment of 750 dollars and would pay me the rest of what he owed on his next payday. I foolishly accepted and never heard from the guy for a few months until I started asking for the money. He told me the bike had been stolen. I thought he was full of it, but moved on.

Then around 1 year later I get some mail from my new favorite impound lot in northern Minnesota. My bike was there and he had never transferred the title. I immediately met up with my friend who grabbed a work van and we went and got it for $300. Yesterday I applied for a duplicate title and received new license plates and registration. I’ve bought a few new parts for it and will be in perhaps around 500 dollars to get it going again. Perhaps will resell to an actual human this time or keep it if TSLA spikes before winter and my dreams come true. The impound lot said my bike was found in a stolen vehicle sting that involved 3 flat beds of stuff ranging from construction trailers down to the smallest vehicle, mine.
The moral of the story is be sure to find a distraction from the ticker. This goes out to perhaps some of the people who aren’t quite the Teslanaires yet :)

I’ll post a photo when I paint the bike.

Also, thanks for making the forum better Mods, looks super.
 
Actually no, my cars are funded from my company, so wifey has no say in that. What she can decide is the colour of the MY I'll be buying her ☺️

But with the ongoing house purchase it's not the time to be using capital on frivolous purchases, I can wait a few years for the R2 - probably worth waiting to get one after they've iterated a bit anyway, you know how it is with new Tesla models...

Agreed - and no, the environmental issues around BTC have not been debunked

TBH, I'd like nothing more that Tesla to announce that after an outcry from shareholders and customers, they've divested their BTC for $1B profit, that would be perfect

There will come a time when the energy needed to mine a Bitcoin will be more than is available on the planet, then BTC will become worthless, immediately...
Hey, Bitcoin already at $60.3K, 1 mo. profit $60K - $35K cost = $25K gain, X 45450 coins = $1,136M or $1.136B or 25K/35K = 71% gain 1 mo. much better than Tesla stock.
 
Omar extremely impressed with FSD beta 8.2. Two minute clip with car handling numerous challenging situations without intervention.
The part where the Tesla stopped to allow the car in front of it to parallel park triggered a question in my mind. Suppose the front end of the Tesla partially blocked the parking spot and the Tesla needed to back up to allow the front car to park, would FSD know what to do? What about other even more extreme edge cases such as where there is some kind of major obstruction in the road that causes all the cars to back up and turn around? I want to believe in level 5 autonomous driving but I have a hard time believing it.
 
Omar extremely impressed with FSD beta 8.2. Two minute clip with car handling numerous challenging situations without intervention.
I have to admit I haven't been following the FSD beta rollout as closely and most on here. I just watched that video 5 times and sent it all my friends. Truly mind blowing! Now I just want to buy more stock on Monday.
 
I’m still digesting this...

And that’s why he’s outgoing. He’s one of those ‘you must diversify for precautions sake and now I’ve done my fiduciary responsibility to inform all’.
 
The part where the Tesla stopped to allow the car in front of it to parallel park triggered a question in my mind. Suppose the front end of the Tesla partially blocked the parking spot and the Tesla needed to back up to allow the front car to park, would FSD know what to do? What about other even more extreme edge cases such as where there is some kind of major obstruction in the road that causes all the cars to back up and turn around? I want to believe in level 5 autonomous driving but I have a hard time believing it.
That's the same issue that now I believe that the FSD level is defined based on Normal driving condition: no accident, no road closure that requires alternate route, no trying to get into a full lane of cars that requires other drivers to yield for you to squeeze into a lane. There are other cases that require interaction between drivers to negotiate a parking space, or you want to stop by a Seven-11 store to pick up something on the way to target location.......The level 5 assumes the car is in an automated assembly line, the whole thing is lacking detailed description and exception.
 
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I've said twice that Tesla’s system is not a “head monitoring” system, but a body-monitoring system that can see distracted behavior such as holding a phone or tapping/scrolling it in a holder. But you’re just not getting the point, so I give up.

Your claim would actually be a great example of exactly the sort of assuming with 0 evidence or insider knowledge you accused others of though, so giving up is probably best.

Meanwhile back to the known facts-- all the actual states the computer detects don't have anything to do with body-monitoring.


Besides dark and blinded (because the hardware was never designed for this job, so lacks the ability to deal with those situations) we've got

EYES- closed, down, up, or nominal.

These would be when there's sufficient light (but not glare that would blind the camera) and no sunglasses- the cases where it can SEE your eyes.

Which, again, are more limited than cases better hardware can see your eyes and track them (dark, sunglasses, etc.


And then we've got 2 sunglasses states that use LIKELY in the state, because it has to guess on head position- those are likely nominal and likely eyes down.... again it's guessing about YOUR EYES without being able to see them.

Then we've got "looking left" and "looking right" where again it'd be HEAD position telling it that (since the camera- incorrectly placed for driver eye tracking, can't see your eyes in this case but can see your head)


Lastly there's one state for "PHONE_USE" which is when the camera can see a phone in its field of view.

But again due to poor placement, there's lots of places one could hold a phone where the camera won't think you're using one but you could be.

Notice how zero of the actual computer states say anything about body position?

Now- more on the phone use state-


That's what the Tesla camera sees.... it can't see below about top of dash level, and can't even see your left hand at all which could have a phone in it. And there's any number of mounting solutions available in the 20-30 buck range that'd easily put the phone mounted where your eyes could move to it but the camera wouldn't see it (either lower or on the left of driver)


So when I mention it's physically incapable of knowing in many cases if you're looking at a phone while keeping your head straight, it's because that's a fact.... as shown by what the camera can actually see (and what it can't) - and the states it has in the software.

Again it's doing its best with HW never meant for this job. Which is great as it might save Tesla the cost of adding a more expensive driver monitoring system for the EU requirement.

But it's objectively, factually, and measurably less capable than a system actually intended for the job, with low-light, polarizing, capabilities and mounted in the proper place.



Are you really? Could it be that I disagree that your “facts” are facts…

It could be you disagree with the facts, but since my facts come from the CEO of Tesla and the actual computer code running on the car, and the known physical limits of the hardware including an actual photo showing the camera can't even see the left side of the driver- Plus if it had been originally INTENDED as a driver monitoring system not a robotaxi thing- why did they not add it to the S/X? Asked 3 times now- never addresses....

So you can disagree with all the facts while not addressing any of them- but doing so doesn't make your argument look very good since you've yet to provide literally anything to support your argument other than insisting you believe it despite every bit of evidence disagreeing with you.




You seem unable to debate the issues without veiled insults to my intelligence or rationality, so I don’t wanna play anymore. Bye.


I've at no point spoken to your intelligence at all---I've simply pointed out you appear to be defending a position directly contradicted by every actual fact available to us.

If you're prefer to stick with it anyway that's entirely your call.

I guess it's the old saying if you have the facts on your side, pound the facts.

If you don't, pound the table.






Anyway- to sum up-- All available evidence, including the word of Elon, the actual computer code, and the physical limits of the HW add up to:

Tesla never originally meant to use the HW this way (which excuses the limitations of it)

Tesla is NOW in a situation where they'll be legally required to include driver monitoring in the EU by next year- and the wheel torque sensor will not cut it..... and they're attempting to use the interior camera originally meant to just watch for robotaxi vandalism to act as a driver monitoring system.

This use of the interior camera to do a decent, if not ideal, job of that function can potentially save Tesla a good bit of money and engineering time not having to add new HW to the vehicle.... assuming the "good enough" of what they've been able to do with it is good enough for EU regulators.


(Note I've been unable to find details on the requirements other than a few sentences when it was passed- if anyone has more specifics on the driver monitoring requirement and what specific capabilities are needed- that'd be informative to the discussion).

As an added bonus- it appears they're also using it to try and weed out dangerous/distracted driving among the early CityStreets (BetaFSD) users.



All the above is generally net positive[/B[ for and about Tesla, and all based on known info about the stuff involved- so getting pushback on it is pretty weird.

It's actually a great example of that bit from Apollo 13 where the engineer says something like "I don't care what it was MEANT to do, what CAN it do?"
 
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That's the same issue that now I believe that the FSD level is defined based on Normal driving condition: no accident, no road closure that requires alternate route, no trying to get into a full lane of cars that requires other drivers to yield for you to squeeze into a lane. There are other cases that require interaction between drivers to negotiate a parking space, or you want to stop by a Seven-11 store to pick up something on the way to target location.......The level 5 assumes the car is in an automated assembly line, the whole thing is lacking detailed description and exception.


This is not correct.

L5 assumes it can drive the car in all conditions a human can. A human is never required- indeed doesn't even need to be there- in all conditions.

If there are limitations on the conditions the system can drive then it's L4 (at most) by definition.

The biggest difference in practical use between 3 and 4 is that if 4 finds a situation outside its capabilities it STILL doesn't require a human- it can handle it safely in some way (even if that way is pulling over safely and parking).... while 3 requires a human as a backup to handle situations outside its operational domain(s) (but does not require the human to always be paying active attention to the road).




When agreed to be a beta tester and downloaded the S/W, the S/W monitors everything needed to be monitored, the consent was implied in the agreement.

I don't think we know either way if the car is actually sending interior video to Tesla.

It has been suggested it could instead, on-car, be logging the detected state from the camera (list shown earlier) and simply reporting that data to Tesla such that it's not actually violating privacy laws about video/photo stuff.

(They could even automate it further, where if the on-car system detects you spend more than X percent of FSD time in a distracted state it disables itself without ever pinging back to Tesla, but I don't love that idea)
 
On this we certainly agree. The only nuance I wanted to convey is that unlike the majority of your very valid examples which I would describe as personal metadata, constant video monitoring in your own personal vehicle rightly or wrongly just "feels" more intrusive than those other examples to many people.

But to your point, it is not at all unreasonable to need to accept that monitoring when (and only when) you put your car into FSD mode. And all the better if, as others have mentioned, images do not need to be shared with the mothership to accomplish the goal.

EDIT: Although I find this topic important which is why I keep responding, there's probably not a direct impact from it on TSLA investing. Apologies. Happy to move to another thread.
Yeah, I definitely don’t want Tesla seeing me pick my nose. But what else is there that’s going on that’s so private while one is driving? Singing to Nana Mourskouri? Drinking a kale smoothie? Using random fart mode?

As a generally pretty private person, I understand the thoughts and feelings behind the desire. What I don’t get is this particular bridge to jump off of when there are so many much bigger bridges that will ensure a full blown splat at the bottom.
Secondarily, that in cabin camera is going to ensure robotaxi riders behave like decent human beings or pay a price.

Third, Tesla isn’t the first to have an in cabin camera.

To date, Tesla has done a good job respecting customer’s privacy and I expect they’ll continue in that vein, like making people accept terms and conditions of the use of certain vehicle features.
 
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Desktop mostly. Bigger screen, more stable connection, faster, more storage. Laptops and mobile devices are fine away from home or office, but they really cut down on productivity. Of course, corporations like them because they are cheap (corporations don't appear to value productivity except on the manufacturing line).
I use mobile device because I have three offices. You can get very powerful ones for around $1700 and supports multiple screens.
 
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Your claim would actually be a great example of exactly the sort of assuming with 0 evidence or insider knowledge you accused others of though, so giving up is probably best.

Meanwhile back to the known facts-- all the actual states the computer detects don't have anything to do with body-monitoring.


Besides dark and blinded (because the hardware was never designed for this job, so lacks the ability to deal with those situations) we've got

EYES- closed, down, up, or nominal.

These would be when there's sufficient light (but not glare that would blind the camera) and no sunglasses- the cases where it can SEE your eyes.

Which, again, are more limited than cases better hardware can see your eyes and track them (dark, sunglasses, etc.


And then we've got 2 sunglasses states that use LIKELY in the state, because it has to guess on head position- those are likely nominal and likely eyes down.... again it's guessing about YOUR EYES without being able to see them.

Then we've got "looking left" and "looking right" where again it'd be HEAD position telling it that (since the camera- incorrectly placed for driver eye tracking, can't see your eyes in this case but can see your head)


Lastly there's one state for "PHONE_USE" which is when the camera can see a phone in its field of view.

But again due to poor placement, there's lots of places one could hold a phone where the camera won't think you're using one but you could be.

Notice how zero of the actual computer states say anything about body position?

Now- more on the phone use state-


That's what the Tesla camera sees.... it can't see below about top of dash level, and can't even see your left hand at all which could have a phone in it. And there's any number of mounting solutions available in the 20-30 buck range that'd easily put the phone mounted where your eyes could move to it but the camera wouldn't see it (either lower or on the left of driver)


So when I mention it's physically incapable of knowing in many cases if you're looking at a phone while keeping your head straight, it's because that's a fact.... as shown by what the camera can actually see (and what it can't) - and the states it has in the software.

Again it's doing its best with HW never meant for this job. Which is great as it might save Tesla the cost of adding a more expensive driver monitoring system for the EU requirement.

But it's objectively, factually, and measurably less capable than a system actually intended for the job, with low-light, polarizing, capabilities and mounted in the proper place.





It could be you disagree with the facts, but since my facts come from the CEO of Tesla and the actual computer code running on the car, and the known physical limits of the hardware including an actual photo showing the camera can't even see the left side of the driver- doing so doesn't make your argument look very good since you've yet to provide literally anything to support your argument other than insisting you believe it despite every bit of evidence disagreeing with you.







I've at no point spoken to your intelligence at all---I've simply pointed out you appear to be defending a position directly contradicted by every actual fact available to us.

If you're prefer to stick with it anyway that's entirely your call.

I guess it's the old saying if you have the facts on your side, pound the facts.

If you don't, pound the table.






Anyway- to sum up-- All available evidence, including the word of Elon, the actual computer code, and the physical limits of the HW add up to:

Tesla never originally meant to use the HW this way (which excuses the limitations of it)

Tesla is NOW in a situation where they'll be legally required to include driver monitoring in the EU by next year- and the wheel torque sensor will not cut it..... and they're attempting to use the interior camera originally meant to just watch for robotaxi vandalism to act as a driver monitoring system.

This use of the interior camera to do a decent, if not ideal, job of that function can potentially save Tesla a good bit of money and engineering time not having to add new HW to the vehicle.... assuming the "good enough" of what they've been able to do with it is good enough for EU regulators.


(Note I've been unable to find details on the requirements other than a few sentences when it was passed- if anyone has more specifics on the driver monitoring requirement and what specific capabilities are needed- that'd be informative to the discussion).

As an added bonus- it appears they're also using it to try and weed out dangerous/distracted driving among the early CityStreets (BetaFSD) users.



All the above is generally net positive[/B[ for and about Tesla, and all based on known info about the stuff involved- so getting pushback on it is pretty weird.

It's actually a great example of that bit from Apollo 13 where the engineer says something like "I don't care what it was MEANT to do, what CAN it do?"
I'm really surprised about the length of time spent, anyway, I'm curious about your " my facts come from the CEO of Tesla and the actual computer code". 1) Are you a S/W engineer developing the beta FSD? 2) would you provide details of the CEO's fact? Thanks
 
I'm really surprised about the length of time spent, anyway, I'm curious about your " my facts come from the CEO of Tesla and the actual computer code". 1) Are you a S/W engineer developing the beta FSD? 2) would you provide details of the CEO's fact? Thanks


I already did- I directly quoted said CEO in the earlier post, explaining several years ago the interior camera was specifically there for robotaxi passenger monitoring.

The driver-monitoring computer code didn't show up in the software until much more recently than the HW was picked and installed for that original purpose.

The S/W stuff is directly from the code as posted by @greentheonly on twitter a while back.... (and IIRC another poster actually linked to the list of all available states detected from him)

Tweet is here though again I think this already has been posted

 
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This is not correct.

L5 assumes it can drive the car in all conditions a human can. A human is never required- indeed doesn't even need to be there- in all conditions.

If there are limitations on the conditions the system can drive then it's L4 (at most) by definition.

The biggest difference in practical use between 3 and 4 is that if 4 finds a situation outside its capabilities it STILL doesn't require a human- it can handle it safely in some way (even if that way is pulling over safely and parking).... while 3 requires a human as a backup to handle situations outside its operational domain(s) (but does not require the human to always be paying active attention to the road).






I don't think we know either way if the car is actually sending interior video to Tesla.

It has been suggested it could instead, on-car, be logging the detected state from the camera (list shown earlier) and simply reporting that data to Tesla such that it's not actually violating privacy laws about video/photo stuff.

(They could even automate it further, where if the on-car system detects you spend more than X percent of FSD time in a distracted state it disables itself without ever pinging back to Tesla, but I don't love that idea)
Can you provide the actual words/link for your "L5 assumes it can drive the car in all conditions a human can."
 
Every car ever produced will sell well if priced low enough. Even the Edsel would have sold well at a low enough price. I don't think Ford can make a single dollar on Mach-e at current prices. So they have no incentive to sell them at volumes comparable to what the Model 3 has already achieved and certainly not at the volumes Model Y will achieve.

It's a compliance car.
No they wouldn't and you know that. Do I need to write a mathematical proof to show you why that's wrong? And I can only assume you think this was a good point to bring up because you thought I was saying it was competitive with Tesla. I didn't say that and I don't think it's competitive. It may be a compliance car, but to me, it looks like it's good enough to the average uneducated (on EVs) customer. There are millions upon millions of customers who don't know how to objectively compare different EVs.

*if* Ford can find a way to make money on the car while bringing down the prices, they'll sell units. Lots. 99% of the new and expensive cars I pass on the road are total trash compared to my Teslas, but they still sell in volume.

I know the "competition is coming" meme is annoying, but that's not what my post was about. Let me summarize what I was trying to say:

"The Taycan is beautiful. Too bad it many of its specs are sub-par. The Mach-E isn't a total POS. People might buy it if it were cheaper (because they don't know any better)."
 
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Can you provide the actual words/link for your "L5 assumes it can drive the car in all conditions a human can."

You can read SAEJ3016 if you want detailed definitions of everything, but what I mention is widely cited elsewhere too, for example from the NHTSA-


Level 5 said:
The vehicle is capable of performing all driving functions under all conditions.

There's also a well known chart from the SAE on this:




under L5 it says "This feature can drive the vehicle under all conditions"