Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

The same as every other charging network: You open your app and tell it to start a charging session at location x on stall y. The protocol negotiation would be standard CCS, so nothing needed there.

Might be possible, yes, but it's not at all elegant, would mean Superchargers being upgraded (OTA I think) to be able to negotiate with non-Tesla's to pick the correct charging rate, etc.

Who knows...

 

[Mengy]

it will be nice when this downdraft is done with for awhile and we see a leg or 3 UP

I think we have a while to go yet in this slump, but when things turn around the market is going to explode like a coiled spring. Good times ahead!

 

[StealthP3D]

Forgive me if I don’t hold my breath for that.

I know. It says they won't install the first ones until July of this year. That gives them 2.5 years to install all 10,000 of them. This would be exciting if they actually do it but it will require over 10 added every single day, including weekends and holidays.

Hmmmm.....They better get cracking!

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

I rated this one funny, since Elon multiple times have said there wont be starlink in cars, as the disc is the size of a pizza.

However, I do recognize the possibility they may come up with a smaler disc for less data specialized on FSD compressed data.. but then, why not use 4/5G? ... or maybe there are large areas with no cell coverage, which need to be handled for this kinda supported FSD? Then it makes kinda sense.

Elon is all about making tech very well integrated into our lives - a Jobs'ian quality.

Don't know how they will solve the technical issues re. starlink antenna and the pivoting small 'pizza' disk. It is not just the size, it has to be oriented correctly so it is mounted on a joint that gimbals.

 

[thx1139]

Key word here is "plans" I think the collective here has seen many, many "plans" over the years.

Look at the math. That is roughly 16 chargers per day starting tomorrow. Lets talk about this again when they build the 1st one.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

'Keep expectations in check,' followed by 'Think bigger/crazier?'

This is like telling a six year old, 'don't get too excited, but you're going to LOVE your Christmas present.'

Bigger/crazier: Perhaps it really is robots?
(But why 'just' the next 3 years? Robots are just crazy and big, without any specific temporal range. Hm...)

 

[Tslynk67]

Well - you can use an APP from any MobilityOperator and navigate to the right plug (which you have to locate on the chargepoint as commonly they have more than one) and then you can hopefully charge.

OR you can use an RFID token for most Chargepoints - this makes it faster as you don't have to deal with apps.



The RFID way is quite okay - not SuC like - but okay.

For Tesla they can't ship RFID Tokens as SuC Stalls can't read them - so either use AutoCharge or Plug&Charge via CCS or ship some clunky Adapter which I don't think is a good strategy as onboarding new users is quite expensive on both sides Tesla and customer

The number of times I've tried to start a charging session with an RFID card and it just doesn't work. Public charging network sucks, big time, I sincerely hope Tesla provide a Tesla-esque experience so those poor sods with other BEV's see what they're missing

Another thing we need to guard against is PHEV's - these monstrosities hog all the public charging points here in Brussels...

 

[jerry33]

Key word here is "plans" I think the collective here has seen many, many "plans" over the years.

This [Rivan 10,000 chargers]. The only way would be 100 100 stall locations, that might be doable by the projected date if they have the money. It's really hard and time consuming to get each site. More so if you are relatively unknown.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I think we have a while to go yet in this slump, but when things turn around the market is going to explode like a coiled spring. Good times ahead!

We'll be in this slump as long as Tesla's true intentions for 2021 production and deliveries are unknown to Wall St and analysts. Could be as soon as Q1 P/D or Q1 earnings, but definitely be by Q2 P/D or Q2 earnings. At that point, I think the cat will be out of the bag

 

[Tslynk67]

I believe it is Nosotros.

Thanks, you're right, need to see if I can get it this side of the pond & Channel, and if I can, then I've always fancied this: Ménage à trois

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I love the inherent assumption among analysts that all Tesla competitors will execute flawlessly on their plan over the next 3-5 years

 

[Christine69420]

My local SC took over an old Kmart or something similar when they upgraded. It already seems to be at capacity though so not sure if they planned for enough growth.


Not sure of the actual numbers, but it seems like most gas stations are near where people live as opposed to being along travel routes. EV fast charging will tend to have the opposite need. Most don't need charging near home, but instead along those long routes.

Having chargers where people live will be useful for all the cars when the owners are visiting friends and family. And like you say chargers at highway rest stops will be useful for long travels.

This [Rivan 10,000 chargers]. The only way would be 100 100 stall locations, that might be doable by the projected date if they have the money. It's really hard and time consuming to get each site. More so if you are relatively unknown.

From what I've seen following the Supercharger buildout the main issues are

1) locating sites where a deal can be made with the property owners
2) getting a connection to the power lines

Putting up the chargers themselves does not take long. The two points mentioned both often do. Many months each is typical i Norway.

 

[Nocturnal]

The number of times I've tried to start a charging session with an RFID card and it just doesn't work. Public charging network sucks, big time, I sincerely hope Tesla provide a Tesla-esque experience so those poor sods with other BEV's see what they're missing

Another thing we need to guard against is PHEV's - these monstrosities hog all the public charging points here in Brussels...

Idle fees FTW.

The only non-Tesla chargers I've used are the Chargepoint stations. They operate using NFC with your phone. I'd say they work just ok. Sometimes the app doesn't want to talk to the charger and there is an extra step where the app has to tell the charger to unlock the cable so you can then plug it in.

 

[Oveeus]

Here’s what my source said when I asked about this particular call you referred... “there’s something you guys (tsla investors/analysts)like to do so much. And yet somehow getting it so wrong (vs the real deal I guess) when it’s so obvious.”

So, I spoke a bit more with my buddy... it seems that he's hesitant to talk too much further, I guess from his NDA.

But this is I got... again, purely from what he said vs. how I felt:
The thing we are getting wrong might be our projection. He went as far as saying this "thing" that we are getting wrong that he hasn't seen anything close in the public even though many tried.

The way I figure is that a lot of us in the community do their projection, namely Troy Teslalike and many analysts who cover Tesla.

"It's so obvious"... referring to what Elon has said 50% YoY growth until 2030 with faster growth this year. We might be way too conservative in what "faster" Elon was referring to. Most projections are now looking about 70% growth YoY... but how about it's actually a lot more than that? With the potential of Giga Berlin and Austin coming online sooner than expected, and Tesla is supply-constrained rather than demand.

My guess is that internally, they have a completely different projection for 2021 (that Elon and the team are aiming for). But only announce 700k-800k as Giga Berlin/Austin is still not final and didn't want to over-promise. Maybe with Berlin and Austin both coming online before the EoY, some crazy delivery figure for Q4 is not out of reality.

 

[Mo City]

We'll be in this slump as long as Tesla's true intentions for 2021 production and deliveries are unknown to Wall St and analysts. Could be as soon as Q1 P/D or Q1 earnings, but definitely be by Q2 P/D or Q2 earnings. At that point, I think the cat will be out of the bag

I wouldn't use the word "definitely" in a 3-4 month time frame.

It needs to sink in for everyone that TSLA may be flat for most of 2021. It's all good (heh, unless you have a bunch of $$$ in short term calls).

I think we can all agree TSLA will launch again, but it may not happen until late this year or sometime in 2022.

HODL!

 

[lafrisbee]

Not sure how attractive this option would be. Decommissioned gas stations require a great deal of environmental remediation before they are used for anything else. It's just one more giant problem caused by the fossil fuel industrial complex. Multiply by the number of gas stations in this country and that's a whole lot of buried tanks.

Plus Gas stations occupy prime commercial sites and the highest real estate value in most areas. There is no need to be on the corner of Main Street and I-95.

 

[printf42]

Have we concluded the “big exciting thing” in yesterday’s all hands meeting is opening up SC and possibly a gov deal/incentive to build vastly more of them?

Is it still possible there is something else or people already confirmed with their contacts that’s it?

 

[buttershrimp]

FUD is FUD. If it's not this, there will certainly be a long list of other things the FUDsters can point to. Tesla should not give one iota of consideration to FUD as it plows ahead into the future. Keep the eyes on the prize.

Honestly I can't wait...and it will be fun to watch our Texas politicians twist themselves into pretzels to balance the oil interest against the biggest success story in Texas job creation history/ soon to be producer of the State Truck of Texas.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think we have a while to go yet in this slump, but when things turn around the market is going to explode like a coiled spring. Good times ahead!

I agree. But I think it might take longer than we think. It's possible we are in a protracted slump or pause (of the share price). I still have as many shares as I want but I do have cash to increase my position even more. I bought some more at $630 a while back and kicked myself for being too early as it took a quick trip down to $540 (very briefly). If I really wanted more I would buy right here (because it's literally impossible to predict when it will rise and never look back) but my strategy is to remain ambivalent whether it goes up this year or flounders in the $500's again with perhaps some dinking around in the $400's before taking off on the next bull leg. I don't think this is a high probability but I know it's one possibility and don't want to be too disappointed or surprised if the worse happens. I'll end up better off if it does go there because then my patience will be rewarded with an even more outsized position at bargain prices. I'm in the ideal spot right now, I really don't care either way, if the coiled spring thingy happens tomorrow or it flounders through the year at even lower prices. This is a good position to be in.

That said, I want Tesla the company to continue performing well and I think they will, for the most part. It's just that the market's perception is the bigger wildcard.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Having chargers where people live will be useful for all the cars when the owners are visiting friends and family. And like you say chargers at highway rest stops will be useful for long travels.




From what I've seen following the Supercharger buildout the main issues are

1) locating sites where a deal can be made with the property owners
2) getting a connection to the power lines

Putting up the chargers themselves does not take long. The two points mentioned both often do. Many months each is typical i Norway.

More batteries/solar, less peak load and much cheaper. Often the peak load charge is much higher than any cost of electricity, especially if batteries can be charged at negative time of use rates (stabilising the grid). Gridserve (UK charging - new, work with Tesla) mention doing this (arbitrage, solar, batteries) as well.