Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[printf42]

Right, that's what I was saying. Maybe I should rephrase it. I think his delivery estimate is right, but I don't think it's indicative of the timeline of the first deliveries of the refreshed S......which I expect much sooner......otherwise there really would be questions as to what is the issue with getting the new S/X delivered.

Asked a Tesla representative in Bay Area today about when they would get a new Model S in the showroom, reply is “a couple of months”.
Then asked about whether deliveries would also be that late, response is much sooner, definitely within this month.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

*** Notice from the assistant to the regional moderator ***

This thread is for musing on road bottle urination and Tesla investment only!

 

[Don TLR]

AH OT:

Tesla Cybertruck will have so many uses!

CyberTruck + CyberLandr = Ultimate Adventure Vehicle​

Well, in the olden days, we had VW Buses, and Westfalia of Germany made the camper pop tops and interiors. Now, in anticipation of the Tesla Cybertruck, we have this outfit getting ready to go to help us get the most out of our off road camping experiences;

Home | CyberLandr

www.cyberlandr.com

View attachment 651511

AH OT:

Tesla Cybertruck will have so many uses!

CyberTruck + CyberLandr = Ultimate Adventure Vehicle​

Well, in the olden days, we had VW Buses, and Westfalia of Germany made the camper pop tops and interiors. Now, in anticipation of the Tesla Cybertruck, we have this outfit getting ready to go to help us get the most out of our off road camping experiences;

Home | CyberLandr

www.cyberlandr.com

View attachment 651511

The Tesla solution is more than enough with a bit of canvas to keep the weight down and the rain out. You’ll have climate from the vehicle and I’ve camped hundreds of times in my jeep and it’s been more than enough. When my truck comes in I’m ready to just head somewhere and pop the top of the truck and a bottle of vino. It doesnt need to be more complex and overweigh like this to take away range.

 

[MC3OZ]

Asked a Tesla representative in Bay Area today about when they would get a new Model S in the showroom, reply is “a couple of months”.
Then asked about whether deliveries would also be that late, response is much sooner, definitely within this month.

The other reason for the July delivery dates could be a long queue of future owners waiting on deliveries.

We will not have the full picture until deliveries start flowing, I think we will know because refreshed Model S/X will be spotted and Superchargers, and on the road.

 

[gabeincal]

The other reason for the July delivery dates could be a long queue of future owners waiting on deliveries.

We will not have the full picture until deliveries start flowing, I think we will know because refreshed Model S/X will be spotted and Superchargers, and on the road.

Flying the drone in Fremont on Sunday! Will report back!

 

[Mo City]

Kum & Go convenience stores adding superchargers. Could eventually grow into something big.

Tesla Superchargers to join gas pumps in fuel retailer chain Kum & Go’s I-44 outlet

Back in 2017, convenience store chain Kum & Go said the Tesla Model 3’s stellar pre-order numbers drove its initiative to build EV charging stations at several key outlets. The program has since grown. Recent reports indicate that the Kum & Go site in Joplin’s 5002 S. Main St, located close to...

www.teslarati.com

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Convenience store / gas station chain Kum & Go adding Tesla Superchargers to their gas stations.

Tesla Superchargers to join gas pumps in fuel retailer chain Kum & Go’s I-44 outlet

Back in 2017, convenience store chain Kum & Go said the Tesla Model 3’s stellar pre-order numbers drove its initiative to build EV charging stations at several key outlets. The program has since grown. Recent reports indicate that the Kum & Go site in Joplin’s 5002 S. Main St, located close to...

www.teslarati.com

 

[SOULPEDL]

But surely that's a "Get Hot From Base Temperature" number, and not a "Maintain at This Temperature" number? Or did you go Full @Krugerrand and buy the Pacific Ocean for your spa?

Oh it's only a 4 person spa so a quick rise to temp from ambient in about an hour. I had ambitions to heat the whole pool when I built it. I only tried that once and it's both slow and expensive even with a cover.

 

[EVWatcher]

Convenience store / gas station chain Kum & Go adding Tesla Superchargers to their gas stations.

Tesla Superchargers to join gas pumps in fuel retailer chain Kum & Go’s I-44 outlet

Back in 2017, convenience store chain Kum & Go said the Tesla Model 3’s stellar pre-order numbers drove its initiative to build EV charging stations at several key outlets. The program has since grown. Recent reports indicate that the Kum & Go site in Joplin’s 5002 S. Main St, located close to...

www.teslarati.com

I’ve used Kum and Go super chargers a few times during the pandemic. As traditional gas stations go they are pretty well managed and clean.

 

[Tslynk67]

OT

Morgan Stanley dumped $5 billion in Archegos’ stocks the night before massive fire sale hit rivals

It's a previously unreported detail that shows the extraordinary steps some banks took to protect themselves from incurring losses amid a client's meltdown.

www.cnbc.com

The night before the Archegos Capital story burst into public view late last month, the fund’s biggest prime broker quietly unloaded some of its risky positions to hedge funds

MM don't care whose blood is spilled.

Well spank my ass and call me Charlie!

In case you never watched it:

 

[Tslynk67]

I’ve used Kum and Go super chargers a few times during the pandemic. As traditional gas stations go they are pretty well managed and clean.

"Kum and Go", seriously?

 

[EVWatcher]

"Kum and Go", seriously?

Ya. I don’t understand how they managed to get away with it in America’s heartland but they are honestly really good stations.

merit: and by good I mean very clean bathrooms, and whole foods quality store layout. I don’t know how they manage it because they don’t seem highly trafficked based on my experience but as far as places I stop on long drives there’s no better place. I say that with all seriousness and no coy high school humor. They are really well managed as a company competing in an industry where bathrooms and stores are generally dirty and poor service. I would stop at a kum and go over any other gas station in America.

 

[Tslynk67]

I guess you don't go to the movies much.
Ben Stiller & Owen Wilson. Ya they're kinda mellow I guess

Spoiler: Off Topic, again, I know, I'm sorry..

Yeah, I know who they are, but they ain't the real Starsky and Hutch, that was my point...

You know, according to teens, this is Mr Spock, yeah, not at ALL correct!

 

[CorneliusXX]

AH OT:

Tesla Cybertruck will have so many uses!

CyberTruck + CyberLandr = Ultimate Adventure Vehicle​

Well, in the olden days, we had VW Buses, and Westfalia of Germany made the camper pop tops and interiors. Now, in anticipation of the Tesla Cybertruck, we have this outfit getting ready to go to help us get the most out of our off road camping experiences;

Home | CyberLandr

www.cyberlandr.com

View attachment 651511

It's been done before

 

[Rohan]

So UK tax year started yesterday and I spent a long weekend reading here that the SP was going to the moon on Monday and thinking why don't these heathens have Monday off? Also assuming that the striong pound would finally fall before I could spend my tax free cash on TSLA. Needn't have worried. I even got distracted yesterday afternoon, missed the opening and caught the MMD entirely by accident. 40 new shares, happy oh we may now proceed to the thank you

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Summary
Battery constrained model. 2022 auto sales of about 2.8 million and 2 trillion market valuation. Not including energy business.


Here is my comment

A few points:

1. there is now only a single Model S/X line (previously parts were unified, parts specific to S or X), but now they are moving to two shifts.

2. Fremont (Model Y) and Shanghai (on existing site) are still ramping, capacity is likely to be over 1.5 M by the end of the year 2021. Any new building in Shanghai will be ramping up during 2022 and will have maybe 0.5 M production, although its capacity by year end will be much higher.

3. We really don't know the final capacity for the existing buildings at Austin and Berlin, capacities of 2 M and 0.5 M seem possible by end 2022, but will be much less at the start of 2022. So average capacity for 2022 is maybe 1.5 M. Any extra buildings will have limited production in 2022.

4. When estimating production a factor for down-time (maintenance, parts shortages, etc) needs to be applied to capacity. I use 0.85, other people I respect use 0.8, so with average capacity for 2022 of about 3.5 M, production will be 2.8 - 3.0 M at most. So probably battery constrained, unless cell production is higher than 100 GWh, this is entirely possible as there are suspicions that Elon was sandbagging the numbers on battery day.

5. You can simplify your model even further, just use an average revenue and profit per kWh of battery produced. If Tesla are production constrained (I think they will be in 2022), then they will allocate batteries in a manner that maximizes revenue (we can see this already in the delay in the Semi, as Model 3/Y give more revenue per kWh so have had priority).

 

[insaneoctane]

Summary
Battery constrained model. 2022 auto sales of about 2.8 million and 2 trillion market valuation. Not including energy business.


Here is my comment

A few points:

1. there is now only a single Model 2/X line (previously parts were unified, parts specific to S or X), but now they are moving to two shifts.

2. Fremont (Model Y) and Shanghai (on existing site) are still ramping, capacity is likely to be over 1.5 M by the end of the year 2021. Any new building in Shanghai will be ramping up during 2022 and will have maybe 0.5 M production, although its capacity by year end will be much higher.

3. We really don't know the final capacity for the existing buildings at Austin and Berlin, capacities of 2 M and 0.5 M seem possible by end 2022, but will be much less at the start of 2022. So average capacity for 2022 is maybe 1.5 M. Any extra buildings will have limited production in 2022.

4. When estimating production a factor for down-time (maintenance, parts shortages, etc) needs to be applied to capacity. I use 0.85, other people I respect use 0.8, so with average capacity for 2022 of about 3.5 M, production will be 2.8 - 3.0 M at most. So probably battery constrained, unless cell production is higher than 100 GWh, this is entirely possible as there are suspicions that Elon was sandbagging the numbers on battery day.

5. You can simplify your model even further, just use an average revenue and profit per kWh of battery produced. If Tesla are production constrained (I think they will be in 2022), then they will allocate batteries in a manner that maximizes revenue (we can see this already in the delay in the Semi, as Model 3/Y give more revenue per kWh so have had priority).

Average GM of 30% seems overly optimistic IMO. Also to say doesn’t include energy is an understatement...the model ONLY covers automotive sales.

 

[Tslynk67]

S & H only outdone by Kojak.

Not so fast, wise guy!

 

[Ocelot]

People come here to be informed. Not misled. The world has enough misinformation in general already. If this place becomes littered with BS I’m out and not coming back.

Do you think most people coming here thought Tesla changed the price on supercharging twenty thousand plus times?
But let’s for an instance say, someone is not joking, Do you remember the guy who said the x was going to be delayed , who got run out of town with his “ disinformation”? Was a super valuable resource who got bullied right out of here via ridicule. Turns out he was spot on, and very right. I think he likely was a Tesla supplier.
Point is when you moderate humour, or moderate information, you lose balance. Disequilibrium leads to poor decision making.

 

[Ocelot]

~~~This thread is NOT going to become the refuge for those who write the positive analog of the naysaying doomsterville mischievous cretins who for a dozen years have been poisoning the well with their lies and worse, half-truths. If you want to post half-truths or whoppers - do it somewhere else. And if you think that posting, let's say tzventzysousand of whatever is a kneeslapper, it is not your sophomoric sense of humor that offends me but what I wrote before, and of which another poster placed specific examples of the results: that gets disseminated!

And THAT is "so what".~~~

I have no problem with swearing, some do. However I personally try not to use negatively biased words, whose origins originated from those with an illness or disease. Some do. Point is it Takes ALL types for this forum to be optimized, and I will stop pointing that out now.