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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Jan 19, 2013
970
11,813
Canada
Looks like price drop in many parts of Europe too. Tesla just dropped prices about 25 times.
The devaluation of the USD against other fiat currencies is likely the cause of the recent price drops in Tesla vehicles outside of US. Below is graph of 5 year CAD to USD showing a rise of CAD over USD from $0.70 to T$0.80 in the last full year, so my Candian purchase of US TSLA needed to rise almost 15% just to break even to cover the currency exchange rate. Thankfully TSLA appreciated many times this during the last full year.

Screen Shot 2021-04-16 at 7.49.37 AM.png
 

Hock1

Member
Jan 21, 2017
677
6,334
Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
Haha the gym has been closed for a while now.

He used to be my mentor but I didn’t go in spine surgery, I went into joints replacement and sportsmed, I ran couple of marathons with him, we completed some Ironman and were training for Boston and Berlin marathons together so we spend a lot of time talking.

the guy is a genius in clinical research in spinal cord injury, working every night till midnight and now over 200 PubMed articles, his father always managed his money and corp, he just discovered there was a stock market last year in the pandemic and wanted to get into TSLA and GME, however, in investing he has exactly the opposite skills required for a spine surgeon, he want everything to be quick, certain and controlled. That makes him a terrible investor.
Just let them find out the hard way.
I say that to myself many times per day when I see the naivete and lack of knowledge displayed in the majority of the posts here. Most people have to find out the hard way.
 

Zero CO2

a long term goal
Apr 24, 2017
799
3,337
A Mountain
Frequently people here discuss 'moats' of Tesla. Superchargers are mentioned but usually without much detail. I decided to just location pairs presently accessible by Tesla Superchargers. I also specify a handful of these that require Destination Chargers also. Two locations I mention, Lhasa, Tibet and Istanbul, Turkey need a couple of non-Tesla charges but both of these have presently planned Superchargers to complete the route. I haven't downloaded maps because any of us obsessive enough to find them can do so on the Tesla mapping pages.

Jilan Provence (near Vladivostok, Russia) to Lhasa, Tibet (needs about three non-Tesla charges near Tibet but there are four Destination chargers in Lhasa and a Superchargers coming. (One Destination charger is in the St. Regis hotel, my preferred Lhasa hotel)

Guangxi (at Haiphong bay looking out towards Hanoi, Virtnam) to Dandong (near North Korea border)

If Guangxi doesn't appeal to you one can begin at Yunnan Province in the famed Golden Triangle at Laos/Myanmar/China borders known for spectacular sightseeing and opium, a few decades ago.

Anywhere you can travel in Honshu (where almost all the Japanese population lives).
Anywhere you can go in South Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand.

For extreme weather changes:
Skáidi, Norway (well above the Arctic Circle nearly northernmost place in Europe) to Cabo da Roca, Spain (furthest South mainland point in the EU, or,
Edmonton, Alberta to Mexico. If we want to go to Cabo San Lucas or Cancun either is easily doable with a Tesla although we'll need to use Destination chargers for the final legs in Mexico.


We will can also choose Istanbul, but now the nearest open Supercharger is in Plovdiv, Romania, 420 km away, so prudence might cause a stop at one of the ZES charging stations in Turkey. Within a year or so this route will have several Superchargers.

Athens, Greece has a Supercharger now but the buildout of Superchargers for Greece, Albania, Bulgaria, Romania and Montenegro is under way. We should see all of these operational this year or early next year.

From 2012 when I saw the first Tesla Supercharger in Gilroy, CA until now, less than ten years later, Tesla has blanketed the largest country on earth, plus the North American Continent and Europe. We now have only places like the Alaskan Highway, Southern Mexico, and much of Eastern Europe.

Still with zero support is the Indian Subcontinent, Southeast Asia, Africa and South America. At the rate Tesla is advancing I expect all of those to have significant coverage in the next two years.

So, based on what exists today Tesla has an essentially insurmountable moat. That is not because no one else could do it, it is that no one else has the imagination to do it.



The point of this is not so much trip planning as a demonstration that Tesla continues to make amazing progress making Superchargers easy to find where there are Teslas.

Quantifying this advantage is difficult, but we do know that charging anxiety and multiple incompatible charging procedures are themselves very discouraging for new adoption, not o mention global reliability issues with nearly every non-Tesla solution. Tesla meanwhile is building larger installations, Urban ones and faster ones on high travel routes as well as gigantic ones where these is high concentration. There are still waits at peak times but even that is being addressed.

So what is this worth? My working assumption is about $300 per share. Why so much? Because the sales process is simpler when the existence of all these simple-to-use solutions are nearly ubiquitous already.
Tesla has increased the value of the SC network over the last 4-5 years and now has as of 4Q report 23,277 connectors at 2,564 stations... the value of the network = 542M

your post adds a key point to the value statement above .... it is not just the number of network nodes that matters ... but where they are located which helps create the Moat.... i watched the Munro Live video where he charges a VW at the Electrify America charger and i was LMAO .... he is an Automotive Engineer and he could not take it ... a few charging interactions like that and buyers remorse will set in .... also how easy the node it to interact with at the UI ....
here is link to video
in case you missed it this is a friction filled transaction :D

Sandy Quote"the best part of the whole trip was the coffee"
 
Last edited:

StealthP3D

Well-Known Member
Dec 12, 2018
8,931
67,188
Maple Falls, WA
Anyone else getting ornery from all the "OEM EV taking on Tesla in 202X" articles/ads ... they seem to have increased exponentially .... i guess OEMs are panicking but it really irritates me...
on the flip side everyone of these articles is an Advertisement for Tesla which is fantastic ... because an educated consumer will need to compare Porsche, Mercedes, VW, etc to Tesla and if you do your HW there is only once conclusion Tesla

changed my mind ... bring on the "Tesla Killers" 🦕

I kind of like that misguided storyline because it's so mind-numbingly stupid it's entertaining. That perspective is completely blind to the fact that the auto market is really huge compared to total EV sales of only 2% and thus sales of EV's from the OEMs don't gut Tesla EV sales, they slice off increasingly larger portions of the OEM's own gasoline car sales. Their perspective is so oblivious to what's actually happening on the ground it's hilariously entertaining.

The story should be: "OEM EV's are competing with their own gasoline offerings, vehicles they have spent decades developing to achieve margins they still can't manage with their fledgling EV offerings. They are stuck between a rock and a hard place because the more EV's they make, the less profit they generate. On the other hand, if they don't manufacture EV's in high volumes, they cannot achieve the necessary economies of scale to compete with Tesla, the leader in EV manufacturing. Tesla continues to expand production of EV's, lowering production costs and making it ever more difficult for the large OEM's to compete. Meanwhile, Tesla has already achieved higher margins on EV's than the OEM's have with their gasoline offerings which Tesla sales are eroding in ever increasing numbers. The only hope for OEM's is to hope they can match Tesla's EV volumes and efficiencies before they go broke."

Instead they say "Look out Tesla, here they come!". 🤪
 

MTL_HABS1909

Active Member
Feb 29, 2016
1,050
6,979
Montreal, Canada
The devaluation of the USD against other fiat currencies is likely the cause of the recent price drops in Tesla vehicles outside of US. Below is graph of 5 year CAD to USD showing a rise of CAD over USD from $0.70 to T$0.80 in the last full year, so my Candian purchase of US TSLA needed to rise almost 15% just to break even to cover the currency exchange rate. Thankfully TSLA appreciated many times this during the last full year.

View attachment 654289
Yet Tesla has not dropped the price of its cars in Canada 🤷🏻‍♂️ Good for TSLA, not good for potential buyers.
 

ByeByeJohnny

Member
Dec 18, 2016
993
7,685
on top of a rocket
The grass is always browner " The positive aspect is that it makes my wife realize how amazing I am of a husband" -

"why can't you be more like...oh actually, you're fine"

Partners being content with one another is a joy compared to one or both making comparisons or manipulating. We're all surrounded by people who are richer (you lot, generally), better looking, fitter, cleverer etc. It's a thoroughly depressing aspect of modern life especially as we have more media, more manipulation of images & stories.

@OrthoSurg - might I suggest you/your wife advise the controller's wife to put a little away in a freedom investment account. At least enough to cover a decent divorce lawyer

Slightly more on-topic, what % of retail, institutional $$ actually understand Tesla as a company? The number of people who subscribe to the Tesla youtube channels seems very low. It's easy to think that what we know and believe is widespread knowledge when it isn't but I think recent experience/research has shown me that few people understand Tesla as a company. I think it shows the importance of Elon's twitterings & driving Cybertruck around

  • Top Gear 8 million (mostly UK?)
  • CarWow Youtube channel has 5.5 million subscribers (UK Specific)
  • Scotty (Buy Toyota) Kilmer - 4+ million
  • BTS (K-Pop) 48 million
  • Ford 2.13 million - why - HOW?
  • General Motors 30.8K (ha ha ha)
  • Volkswagen 232K
  • Tesla 1.9 million
  • Hyperchange 152k
  • Now you know 250k
  • Tesla Daily/Rob Maurer 160k
  • Bjorn Nyland 228k
  • Fully Charged 780k (mostly UK?)
  • Sean Mitchell - 57k
  • Ben Sullins 230K
  • Grimes 853K
One thing to remember is that youtube numbers are often misleading. First of all, number of subscribers are often influenced by viral videos and longevity. I would guess for example that likeley Ford had some superbowl commerial with a competition where you could win something if you subscribed. Or something similar. Also even if you die in most cases your subscription lives on. So half of Fords are probably dead anyway.

You can also look at Fords videos that are posted now. They get less views than both Sandy Munro and Rob Maurer. Way less most of the time.

Another factor that is never brought up is that it doesn't take much for a view to be counted. The algorithm is a bit unclear but a 30 second long view counts for sure. At least for some type of videos even shorter views are counted. Also if you happen to have a 'popular' word or name in your youtube name you might show up in searches and get an insane amount of very short views when people click before reading the description (or has autoplay on).

I have some friends that run a channel that comes up very high every time someone searches for a specific classic popular movie. It has nothing to do with the movie but often comes up as the first result. Even before the official movie page. Some videos get 50x the normal views with almost all very short. They learned to start all their videos with a short ad. Most people let it play through that. They didn't create the channel or name to trick anyone but they are not stupid and now make a nice extra change from this.

The account owner can see a lot of info about views but it's seldom talked about. Even a channel like Solving The Money Problem that has a few times gone through how much money the channel generates has never, from what I've seen at least, made a video regarding how long the average viewer actually watches a video. This is the dirty secret of all video creators.

I'm even screwing the stats myself. I surf everything with adblocker. So no youtube ads for me. For the dozen or so channels I watch regularly I often go back while I'm doing something else and let a playlist run through a couple of hours on a tab in the background with sound of so I don't see it the second time while I work or watch a movie or something. So most of the channels I like gets two views from me, one they get ad revenue from and one they don't. Both count in the numbers you see.

Not sure what I'm trying to say. Except, don't trust numbers on the internet I guess.
 
Last edited:

winfield100

Supporting Member
Feb 16, 2013
2,781
10,119
vivant non-traveler
Frequently people here discuss 'moats' of Tesla. Superchargers are mentioned but usually without much detail. I decided to just location pairs presently accessible by Tesla Superchargers. I also specify a handful of these that require Destination Chargers also. Two locations I mention, Lhasa, Tibet and Istanbul, Turkey need a couple of non-Tesla charges but both of these have presently planned Superchargers to complete the route. I haven't downloaded maps because any of us obsessive enough to find them can do so on the Tesla mapping pages.

Jilan Provence (near Vladivostok, Russia) to Lhasa, Tibet (needs about three non-Tesla charges near Tibet but there are four Destination chargers in Lhasa and a Superchargers coming. (One Destination charger is in the St. Regis hotel, my preferred Lhasa hotel)

Guangxi (at Haiphong bay looking out towards Hanoi, Virtnam) to Dandong (near North Korea border)

If Guangxi doesn't appeal to you one can begin at Yunnan Province in the famed Golden Triangle at Laos/Myanmar/China borders known for spectacular sightseeing and opium, a few decades ago.

Anywhere you can travel in Honshu (where almost all the Japanese population lives).
Anywhere you can go in South Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand.

For extreme weather changes:
Skáidi, Norway (well above the Arctic Circle nearly northernmost place in Europe) to Cabo da Roca, Spain (furthest South mainland point in the EU, or,
Edmonton, Alberta to Mexico. If we want to go to Cabo San Lucas or Cancun either is easily doable with a Tesla although we'll need to use Destination chargers for the final legs in Mexico.


We will can also choose Istanbul, but now the nearest open Supercharger is in Plovdiv, Romania, 420 km away, so prudence might cause a stop at one of the ZES charging stations in Turkey. Within a year or so this route will have several Superchargers.

Athens, Greece has a Supercharger now but the buildout of Superchargers for Greece, Albania, Bulgaria, Romania and Montenegro is under way. We should see all of these operational this year or early next year.

From 2012 when I saw the first Tesla Supercharger in Gilroy, CA until now, less than ten years later, Tesla has blanketed the largest country on earth, plus the North American Continent and Europe. We now have only places like the Alaskan Highway, Southern Mexico, and much of Eastern Europe.

Still with zero support is the Indian Subcontinent, Southeast Asia, Africa and South America. At the rate Tesla is advancing I expect all of those to have significant coverage in the next two years.

So, based on what exists today Tesla has an essentially insurmountable moat. That is not because no one else could do it, it is that no one else has the imagination to do it.



The point of this is not so much trip planning as a demonstration that Tesla continues to make amazing progress making Superchargers easy to find where there are Teslas.

Quantifying this advantage is difficult, but we do know that charging anxiety and multiple incompatible charging procedures are themselves very discouraging for new adoption, not o mention global reliability issues with nearly every non-Tesla solution. Tesla meanwhile is building larger installations, Urban ones and faster ones on high travel routes as well as gigantic ones where these is high concentration. There are still waits at peak times but even that is being addressed.

So what is this worth? My working assumption is about $300 per share. Why so much? Because the sales process is simpler when the existence of all these simple-to-use solutions are nearly ubiquitous already.
@jbcarioca
barely 7 years ago there were -->71<-- Superchargers in the entire North American continent and a father-daughter team did a 6 day New York to California trip in 6 days (200 mile range between SC's max) in a model S
(1 week before Tesla did so)
there is a map
things are changing extremely rapidly in just 7 years
1618590880111.png

 

Prunesquallor

His cardinal virtue? An undamaged brain.
Dec 19, 2018
3,032
31,309
Houston/Galveston
Tesla has increased the value of the SC network over the last 4-5 years and now has as of 4Q report 23,277 connectors at 2,564 stations... the value of the network = 542M

your post adds a key point to the value statement above .... it is not just the number of network nodes that matters ... but where they are located which helps create the Moat.... i watched the Munro Live video where he charges a VW at the Electrify America charger and i was LMAO .... he is an Automotive Engineer and he could not take it ... a few charging interactions like that and buyers remorse will set in .... also how easy the node it to interact with at the UI ....
here is link to video
in case you missed it this is a friction filled transaction :D

Sandy Quote"the best part of the whole trip was the coffee"
I halfway wonder if VW designed EA to be purposely obtuse back when they were forced to build the network in order to discourage EV adoption. Now that they NEED it... well, we reap what we sow.
 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
6,798
24,427
Philadelphia, PA
Yikes. $750 looking pretty vulnerable if you ask me.

Am I nuts or can you just buy a massive spread of calls every Friday at 10:40am for the following Friday and sell them the following Tuesday at 9:40 for a killing? I really need to deep dive some historical data and see if that's true. Certainly seems like it is during every period where TSLA is "underpriced" per TMC consensus. Basically you just eat the MM shorting each week.
 

ByeByeJohnny

Member
Dec 18, 2016
993
7,685
on top of a rocket
The devaluation of the USD against other fiat currencies is likely the cause of the recent price drops in Tesla vehicles outside of US. Below is graph of 5 year CAD to USD showing a rise of CAD over USD from $0.70 to T$0.80 in the last full year, so my Candian purchase of US TSLA needed to rise almost 15% just to break even to cover the currency exchange rate. Thankfully TSLA appreciated many times this during the last full year.

View attachment 654289
But against the Euro the dollar is actually up over the last year. So according to that theory they should have lowered prices in Canada and raised them in Europe. The opposite of what they did.

The us/euro has gone both up and down the last year so without knowing more it's simply impossible to know why and when prices are changing.

A just as likely guess is that with Berlin coming along in the fall they will probably start pushing model y sales in Europe soon. With a lower than expected price since they are locally made with the savings that come from that. So they needed to adjust model 3 prices to be more inline with what the model y prices will be.
 
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Prunesquallor

His cardinal virtue? An undamaged brain.
Dec 19, 2018
3,032
31,309
Houston/Galveston
Yikes. $750 looking pretty vulnerable if you ask me.

Am I nuts or can you just buy a massive spread of calls every Friday at 10:40am for the following Friday and sell them the following Tuesday at 9:40 for a killing? I really need to deep dive some historical data and see if that's true. Certainly seems like it is during every period where TSLA is "underpriced" per TMC consensus. Basically you just eat the MM shorting each week.
Joe Mama! The day just got more interesting.
 

Zero CO2

a long term goal
Apr 24, 2017
799
3,337
A Mountain
I kind of like that misguided storyline because it's so mind-numbingly stupid it's entertaining. That perspective is completely blind to the fact that the auto market is really huge compared to total EV sales of only 2% and thus sales of EV's from the OEMs don't gut Tesla EV sales, they slice off increasingly larger portions of the OEM's own gasoline car sales. Their perspective is so oblivious to what's actually happening on the ground it's hilariously entertaining.

The story should be: "OEM EV's are competing with their own gasoline offerings, vehicles they have spent decades developing to achieve margins they still can't manage with their fledgling EV offerings. They are stuck between a rock and a hard place because the more EV's they make, the less profit they generate. On the other hand, if they don't manufacture EV's in high volumes, they cannot achieve the necessary economies of scale to compete with Tesla, the leader in EV manufacturing. Tesla continues to expand production of EV's, lowering production costs and making it ever more difficult for the large OEM's to compete. Meanwhile, Tesla has already achieved higher margins on EV's than the OEM's have with their gasoline offerings which Tesla sales are eroding in ever increasing numbers. The only hope for OEM's is to hope they can match Tesla's EV volumes and efficiencies before they go broke."

Instead they say "Look out Tesla, here they come!". 🤪
yup innovators dilemma in action
I halfway wonder if VW designed EA to be purposely obtuse back when they were forced to build the network in order to discourage EV adoption. Now that they NEED it... well, we reap what we sow.
that could very well be ... for those old timers who watched the little rascals it reminds of this clip when Spanky changed his mind about sabotaging his act for the love of Darla

no guys i was just kidding "VW wants to win"
 
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MABMAB

Member
Jun 19, 2019
839
3,088
Mulligan's Valley
Wow, what price action. Wednesday I thought we would get move on Thursday then have quiet Friday. This stinks of bigger money !!! I love a buying Friday!
 

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Snerruc

Member
Apr 16, 2016
964
1,352
Palm Bay
Peripherally On Topic....it's Okay: I approve this post....

The photos of the Cybertruck at the Texas Gigafactory yesterday clearly show a vehicle whose tires extend outside its wheel fenders. I know not the laws in all 50 states, but I do know - and from unhappy experience - that that is illegal in the states of Alaska and Washington.


And here we go......
In the 6-7 states I travel in 50% of the pickups are running 32s or 35s. Which stick out well past the fender edge. A lot of the rest are lifted and run even bigger, many of which are unsafe on pavement. My cop neighbor says they ignore them. Nobody enforces the laws anymore.
 
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StealthP3D

Well-Known Member
Dec 12, 2018
8,931
67,188
Maple Falls, WA
The devaluation of the USD against other fiat currencies is likely the cause of the recent price drops in Tesla vehicles outside of US. Below is graph of 5 year CAD to USD showing a rise of CAD over USD from $0.70 to T$0.80 in the last full year, so my Candian purchase of US TSLA needed to rise almost 15% just to break even to cover the currency exchange rate. Thankfully TSLA appreciated many times this during the last full year.

View attachment 654289

It's funny how two people looking at the same data see two different things:

You see the $CAD going from $0.70 to $0.80 $USD.

I see the $CAD has remained more or less stable at about $0.77 $USD.

Is the recent move part of a longer term trend higher? Who knows, I have no reason to think it is. Everything fluctuates, what matters is long-term trends.
 

SOULPEDL

Supporting Member
Jul 25, 2016
3,006
11,365
Arizona
@jbcarioca
barely 7 years ago there were -->71<-- Superchargers in the entire North American continent and a father-daughter team did a 6 day New York to California trip in 6 days (200 mile range between SC's max) in a model S
(1 week before Tesla did so)
there is a map
things are changing extremely rapidly in just 7 years
View attachment 654295
So ~10 years for the rest to catch up then. And with all the prime spots going fast, cost of each new spot should rise over time (just like what's happening with battery supplies). If gas stations get electrified - nice conflict of interest there, and not a lot a room at a Circle K. They need stalls, and truck stops have some space. But I'm not gonna solve that problem for them, maybe they can figure something out. So far, not impressed by competition and charging. I occasionally think they're all out to prove EVs are such a pain. Wait until the consumer catches on... this is crucial to sales and the #1 fear factor.
 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
6,798
24,427
Philadelphia, PA
Joe Mama! The day just got more interesting.
I wish there was more transparency on the MM side because it sure as hell looks this week like tons of buying has been artificially soaked up by naked shorting. Fine with me I guess, but the more they do this today the greater the uncoiling next week.

We get sell-the-news a lot on quarterly earnings, but I'm thinking all this shorting ahead of time keeps that from happening the week of the 26th. Reality might be something closer to a snap to $850-$900 then a slow climb to $1000. We shall see. Depends on how clearly the implications of this month's P&D are absorbed by the market.
 
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