Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

Apparently that's not always the case.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1383917552762384386

It is *possible* to see lines on an unmarked street if there is a lot of contrast between the pavement and the curbs/gutters. AP can also be available if there is a lead car on a residential street.

In BOTH cases, the speed is limited to around 20mph.

Knowing where this happened now I think it is extremely unlikely that AP was involved.

 

[JoRoMo]

OK, lets not guess....
So tell me...when a car is involved in a fatal collision (or any collision for that matter) and it appears that the occupants in all seats but the driver's seat are still in the car whether conscious or not. AND there is no one in the driver's seat. Is the most likely scenario that the driver got out of the car? Yes?
I'd be looking real hard at the "witnesses."
And it looks like a high-end neighborhood (to those that do not live on an Island or Mountain) so I am guessing that enough cameras face the street to watch for porch pirates... (And all the petty perverse things one can employ a surveillance camera to do when you got enough money to buy as many as you want and point them at your neighbor's.)
Show the video to the Driver...er Witnesses.

Stop it.

 

[bigsmooth125]

Maybe you missed the truth of what's happening here, but the people who want to jump to the conclusion that the Tesla did this on it's own, on Autopilot, are not Tesla fan boys (who are recommending not jumping to conclusions until the investigation has been completed). It's wild speculation at this point that Autopilot was engaged.

I’m criticizing anyone who’s not being objective and jumping to conclusions on either side. That includes those who are coming up with theories that only place blame on the vehicle’s occupants or on Tesla without considering all possibilities.

 

[Knightshade]

In any case, the SPEED limit for autopilot is still there. AP won't go over 35 in a residential area like that.

TACC has no such limit- it'll let you set 90 on a local road even if it has no speed limit info.

Hence why I pointed out the speed is a reason it could not be AP but could be TACC alone

Knightshade. I'm one of those who like the skepticism you often provide here. I agree there is often too much consensus and 'Tesla is never wrong' sentiment here.

That said. While we don't know what happened here yet the only reason anyone is blaming this on AP is that it's a Tesla. There is zero possibility that any police or any other rescue personnel on site could determine this. It's all based on 'there was no one in the driver seat'.

I don't disagree with any of that.

And I'm among those here pointing out it was almost for certain not on AP
(even if one particular user grinding an axe keeps wanting to suggest otherwise)

So what is the likeliest scenario here?

There's basically 2 at least somewhat likely scenarios-

1) They turned on TACC, thinking it was AP.

That explains why it would engage on an unmarked road, why it would keep driving straight instead of taking the turn, and why it would accelerate well past residential street speed limits AP would impose.


2) Certainly it's POSSIBLE there was a 3rd person driving who ran as well-- though the crash was bad enough to kill 2 other people in the car in one of the safest cars in the world- so it'd be somewhat remarkable it killed those 2 but the driver was so injury free he was able to exit the vehicle and flee. But that's the other "likely" possibility.


AP isn't involved in either scenario though.


Unfortunately, with the S having no interior cam, and the fire being so severe there'd be a massive loss of physical evidence (say, finding a 3rd persons blood, or blood on the drivers seat inconsistent with passenger position), there's going to be some evidence that'd make determining what happened harder to do.

Ideally some data auto uploaded to Tesla on the crash, that can at least establish last hands on wheel detection and state of TACC (I don't know if a crash dump reports seat sensor data- obviously THAT would be super useful to know...maybe @verygreen knows)

 

[dww12]

No, I'm assuming we don't have enough facts to know how he got in the back seat and that he was the one driving. We don't know but it certainly wouldn't be new or novel if the dead driver was found in the backseat. We don't even know if the guy in the backseat was the driver! Let the investigation complete before jumping to wild conclusions. Sheesh, you are no better than the media!

The only ones jumping to conclusions are the police. Two dead people in the back seat of a burned car that crashed.
Car is a Tesla:
“Oh it’s a Tesla, had to be autopilot, it all makes sense now. I heard it can drive itself.”
Car is not a Tesla:
“This is going to take a while, move along everybody.”

 

[Singuy]

It is *possible* to see lines on an unmarked street if there is a lot of contrast between the pavement and the curbs/gutters. AP can also be available if there is a lead car on a residential street.

In BOTH cases, the speed is limited to around 20mph.

Knowing where this happened now I think it is extremely unlikely that AP was involved.

Notice the car is moving. The scenario of the accident we have to assume the car was not moving when ap was enabled which makes it even harder to accelerate to some random number and enable on that street.

Why was the car not moving? Because ap will not enable without a seat belt, so 5his person cannot enable ap and then jumped into another chair. So the only way is to put car on hold, unbuckle, then jump to the other seat, attach the seat belt, then put ap on at 0mph.

 

[Drumheller]

I drive a 2015 Subaru Crosstrek. It has cruise control. If I am on a 35mph road with a 15mph hairpin turn at the end of it, and if I set the cruise control up to 45 mph and let the car drive at that speed into the hairpin, I won't be able to navigate that hairpin successfully.

Want to know what prevents this from happening? I'm driving the car. I'm in control of the car and all of it's navigation aids.

Same goes for any car, including a Tesla. If a driver engages autopilot on a road like that and the Model S accelerates up to 20 mph over the speed limit erroneously, I DISENGAGE THE AUTOPILOT!!! If the car is barrelling towards a sharp turn way too fast, I DISENGAGE THE AUTOPILOT because I'm driving the car and I see the turn coming!!!

Tesla autopilot is not full self driving, no more than Subaru cruise control is a failsafe way to control my Crosstrek's speed. Drive the damn car, use the aids all you want but maintain control yourself and use those aids wisely and responsibly. Tesla autopilot is not a reason to STOP DRIVING THE CAR!!?!?!?

I was using enhanced cruise control while driving across Texas two weeks ago. There were times the car auto-braked on curves in a 75mph speed limit zone where I would not have braked. I laughed that the car didn't trust my judgment.

The "news" is a paid propaganda platform. Has been my entire life. People in this thread have learned that in regards to Tesla but it seems many people still believe the news regarding other subjects. It isn't only Tesla that is affected.

 

[Todd Burch]

Why was the car not moving? Because ap will not enable without a seat belt, so 5his person cannot enable ap and then jumped into another chair. So the only way is to out car on hold, unbuckle, then jump to the other seat, attach the seat belt, then put ap on at 0mph.

At least on my AP1 system, AP cannot be enabled from a stop on a residential street, nor can it be set below 18 mph. I believe 18 mph is the minimum speed. This is allowed for FSD but I don't think this was an FSD car. Plus, the minute you unbuckle AP will disengage. Not to mention that the car would have had to have its max speed set quite high, the system would have had to allow it, and the car would have had to accelerate at a rate well beyond what AP is programmed to do.

EVERYTHING about this is screaming that it's not an AP incident.

 

[ninpb]

AP wasn't on but yesterday I was doing the obligatory dad death stare at my kids in the back seat when the anti collision warning came on to some abrupt braking on the freeway. So glad for being in a Tesla with my family!

 

[Nocturnal]

TACC has no such limit- it'll let you set 90 on a local road even if it has no speed limit info.

Hence why I pointed out the speed is a reason it could not be AP but could be TACC alone

How could you do that though? Turn on TACC and then climb into the back while it's accelerating and randomly veering to the side? Seems like a weird situation.

 

[Jack6591]

This accident occurred in a high-end residential neighborhood. It will be interesting to see if any video cameras picked up what happened.

 

[stealthyc]

I would be jumping up and down waving my hands for you to BUY right now, but the pricing isn't going down on options. Bought a $800c for 4/30 @ $12 20 minutes ago, now it's MORE expensive and the share price is down $20!

I guess this is just a melee and IV spikes a lot. Good time to sell puts I assume? Not interested!

Yes when it hit around 692 the IV was high enough that I sold a few 637.5 puts for friday for 1k each.

 

[Pezpunk]

At least on my AP1 system, AP cannot be enabled from a stop on a residential street, nor can it be set below 18 mph. I believe 18 mph is the minimum speed. This is allowed for FSD but I don't think this was an FSD car. Plus, the minute you unbuckle AP will disengage. Not to mention that the car would have had to have its max speed set quite high, the system would have had to allow it, and the car would have had to accelerate at a rate well beyond what AP is programmed to do.

EVERYTHING about this is screaming that it's not an AP incident.

Right. I hate speculating on what happened, and I especially hate attacking individuals who are now dead and whose families are no doubt in a lot of pain and working through a horrific tragedy, but the story as presented by the media makes absolutely no sense. It would have taken a crazy amount of work to get autopilot to even engage from a stop in an unmarked cul de sac with nobody in the driver's seat, let alone accelerate to a deadly speed and then crash. It sounds fundamentally impossible.

Speaking solely as a soulless, selfish investor, here's my arithmetic: there are clearly some crucial facts missing here. The chances of those missing facts making the current narrative WORSE for Tesla is practically zero, since the narrative is already placing all the blame on them, while the chances for these missing facts exonnerating Tesla (partially or completely) seems almost certain from my (admittedly biased) perspective. That's my reasoning for buying this dip.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Here we go. Options pricing finally starting to drift down.

 

[dww12]

Seriously, stop with the AP stuff. The car crashed and burned on a neighborhood street and there are two people in the back that were in their 60s. That’s it.

AP makes no sense at all.

I find a car jacking by a younger healtier person taking them to their house to rob them, accidentally crashing and fleeing more likely.
Or demented rich kids offing their parents.
Or a 3rd drunk driver fleeing.
Or even TSLAQ picking up two dead bodies crashing the car and stuffing them in seems more likely. Not AP.

 

[Huskyf]

If CNBC, the NYTimes and all the other idiots out there can speculate, then so can I. A drunk driver fleeing the scene would solve ALL of this. It's late and everyone has been drinking. "Hey, take me out in the car and show Bob what it can do". Covering for a family member is not uncommon. Yes, wild speculation here but anyone holding me to a higher standard than the Old Gray Lady needs to adjust their mindset.



That's the only time I've ever seen this. With that guy's recent history I don't have complete trust. In any case, the SPEED limit for autopilot is still there. AP won't go over 35 in a residential area like that.

Yves no high speed possible

 

[lafrisbee]

Neighbor video. truth.

and as to the question of the driver exiting the vehicle and the two passengers die.
The two old farts only had to become unconscious or break a hip, while if the driver was in better health (younger) he could survive in a more ambulatory condition.
(Being the same age as the two that were found dead I can call them "old farts.")

 

[lafrisbee]

This accident occurred in a high-end residential neighborhood. It will be interesting to see if any video cameras picked up what happened.

Ha! you must have me on ignore.

 

[StealthP3D]

I’m criticizing anyone who’s not being objective and jumping to conclusions on either side. That includes those who are coming up with theories that only place blame on the vehicle’s occupants or on Tesla without considering all possibilities.

There is nothing wrong with proposing a theory, given the facts we have. As long as it's only a theory. Where it crosses the line is when people start pretending we know what happened because it's a Tesla with all kinds of driver aids.

 

[Opus BC fan]

I am really looking forward to the SP movement leading into the earnings on the 26th.
Nothing to do today as my dry powder was expended last week.