Probably thinking of the downside implications. (6 =/= 7)
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Probably thinking of the downside implications. (6 =/= 7)
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
I need to sell about five percent of my tsla investment this week. Some for living expenses, card payments and rent, some for an investment I'm making in a local project with some friends and about two years worth of taxes, not from tsla gains, that I've been able to push forward due to pandemic extensions.
I've been researching what's the worst than can happen and how long I can get away with it if I just continue not paying the taxes for awhile. There is no death penalty here and the prisons aren't that bad. Maybe they'll let me keep a tablet so I can read tmc.
how in the world can this tactic be legal? For starters, the price shouldn’t change until execution. These hedge funds can manipulate without any cost to them? Insane.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
What will be funny is if Tesla ever does see a need for advertising everyone who has been needlessly pushing for it prematurely will be running around congratulating themselves for being visionaries.
yep, I think it will either be 6xx because of some weird accounting voodoo I don't understand that weighs on earnings, or it will be 8xx due to beating estimates. I am hoping for the latter!
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Since there are many of us who cannot grasp what Tesla is doing that is so different that they cannot ever do traditional advertising I suggest taking a careful look at the AdAge official 'world's largest advertiser' Amazon:
Looking there and also going through their massive disclosures there are a few crucial points:
1. Despite being the largest retailer the world has ever known they do not use conventional advertising at all.
2. Their gigantic advertising is almost all website placements and search sponsorships.
3. Current estimate is that ~90% of their advertising budget is actually product search and passthrough search links. Almost all of that is actually paid by product sellers on Amazon.
4. After the 'almost' above there is still a gigantic amount of money, which almost all goes to make placements for Amazon-branded products, although even most fo that is actually paid for by the manufacturers of the Amazon-branded product.
5. Even in categories such as Amazon Prime Video and Amazon Music the expenditures are almost all passed- through one way or another.
So, simplistically Amazon is the World's largest advertiser. Factually, they are effectively the world's largest ad agency, with placement and promotion throughout their platform. Conventional traditional advertising? Virtually none.
When they do use traditional ads, what is it for? Mostly, recruiting and broadcasting local support for Amazon's insatiable appetite for new distribution facilities. Thus it is primarily local.
With their massive scale one would expect them to dominate the airwaves were conventional advertising valuable. But they do not, because it is irrelevant for any purpose other than helping seek community and governmental support for their activities.
For them press releases with typically high gloss serve to generate almost everything they need.
Just think about how Tesla will behave when they have, say, a 15% car maker share in an area, or a 15% market share in distributed power (AKA Tesla Energy). Chances are they'll begin to be more nearly like Amazon in their approaches, but vastly less visible since they'll carefully target immediate potential purchasers. As such it will be primarily search related with some of the now- typical banners and sponsored links tossed in. Overall, it will still not look like what the non-Marketing world calls advertising.
In short, they'll still seem pretty much as it does now, since quite a bit of that happens already, but not the banners. Nor is there ever likely to be an advertising department.
None of us should ever think Tesla is unaware about how to operate effectively in the digital world.
I suppose some of us cannot imagine they're doing these things because we cannot see them, and they've no Department named Advertising. The budgets will never, in all probability, look like Amazon's, because Tesla will not need to become a surreptitious Advertising Agency like Amazon and Google have done.
1. Despite being the largest retailer the world has ever known they do not use conventional advertising at all.
2. Their gigantic advertising is almost all website placements and search sponsorships.
3. Current estimate is that ~90% of their advertising budget is actually product search and passthrough search links. Almost all of that is actually paid by product sellers on Amazon.
4. After the 'almost' above there is still a gigantic amount of money, which almost all goes to make placements for Amazon-branded products, although even most fo that is actually paid for by the manufacturers of the Amazon-branded product.
5. Even in categories such as Amazon Prime Video and Amazon Music the expenditures are almost all passed- through one way or another.
So, simplistically Amazon is the World's largest advertiser. Factually, they are effectively the world's largest ad agency, with placement and promotion throughout their platform. Conventional traditional advertising? Virtually none.
When they do use traditional ads, what is it for? Mostly, recruiting and broadcasting local support for Amazon's insatiable appetite for new distribution facilities. Thus it is primarily local.
With their massive scale one would expect them to dominate the airwaves were conventional advertising valuable. But they do not, because it is irrelevant for any purpose other than helping seek community and governmental support for their activities.
For them press releases with typically high gloss serve to generate almost everything they need.
Just think about how Tesla will behave when they have, say, a 15% car maker share in an area, or a 15% market share in distributed power (AKA Tesla Energy). Chances are they'll begin to be more nearly like Amazon in their approaches, but vastly less visible since they'll carefully target immediate potential purchasers. As such it will be primarily search related with some of the now- typical banners and sponsored links tossed in. Overall, it will still not look like what the non-Marketing world calls advertising.
In short, they'll still seem pretty much as it does now, since quite a bit of that happens already, but not the banners. Nor is there ever likely to be an advertising department.
None of us should ever think Tesla is unaware about how to operate effectively in the digital world.
I suppose some of us cannot imagine they're doing these things because we cannot see them, and they've no Department named Advertising. The budgets will never, in all probability, look like Amazon's, because Tesla will not need to become a surreptitious Advertising Agency like Amazon and Google have done.
I think it's pretty straight forward:
Priority #1: Gross margin
Priority #2: full year guidance
#3: Austin & Berlin Y/CT timeline
Gross margin over 25% again we fly.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Something to kill the time while we wait for Earnings.
Chicken Genius on Why Everyone Wants Tesla to Fail.
Chicken Genius on Why Everyone Wants Tesla to Fail.
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If you've only watched the first ten minutes of every episode from the last 45 years.... ok.
But most of each episode? The North Koreans wouldn't do that to someone they caught spying on them.
The Audi Godfather ad made a point and signaled the end of BMW.It would be funny were it to happen. It won't precisely because they have all the awareness they can use and more plus all the demand they can use and more. The only remotely conventional techniques they use are end-of-quarter promotions and periodic incentives. Even those are communicated solely with now-traditional Tesla techniques. never have they reported to industry traditional broad-spectrum promotions.
Those are simply too inefficient for use today. Sadly, much fo the industry hasn't clue so they continue with purely traditional techniques. Even traditional giants such as Procter and Gamble now spent more on targeted techniques than they do on broad-spectrum advertising. Clearly you don't believe these things.
Do a little research on advertising expenditures by channel and expenditures for internet targeted promotion and purchase-location promotion. When/if you do that you'll understand a bit more about this.
Finally, Super Bowl ads and similar splashes are almost always done to satisfy senior executives whims. Those obsolescent men (nearly all those dinosaurs are men) continue to see value because they can see/observe their Super Bowl and other pitches and brag to their friends. Never underestimate how important it is to make your pitch to the Board of Directors and the old Senior Execs. That aspect is so important that a good many knowledgable people make those pitches to help sell corporate decisions that they otherwise might oppose. Here is a prototypical such pitch:
PreviewPreview0:31GMC HUMMER EV Super Bowl LIV Ad With LeBron JamesYouTube · CarscoopsFeb 2, 2020
That one is quite certain to have been worthwhile to help Mary Barra sell an EV approach that is opposed by a number of senior executives and board members. Maybe it generated a few sales to prior Hummer buyers, but they'd have been convinced later on anyway using modern techniques. It is definitely value delivered when such activity converts living dinosaurs.
I have participated in a handful of settings where such decisions were made explicitly for that reason.
One of the most blatantly obvious ones was this:
Northrop Grumman TV Spot, 'Stealth Fighters'
Northrop Grumman has always been at the forefront of technology with speed, stealth, and intelligence.www.ispot.tv
Tesla and SpaceX are not weak enough to need such antics, nor do either have cost-plus contracts to help them to bilk the taxpayers for them:
I broadly agree with you, except that we know what they're doing and we can often predict the outcome much of the time, so use this knowledge to your advantage and be a mini-MM, sell calls - sure, occasionally the SP might shoot up, but then just roll 'em up and later. This risk is really very small, TBH.
As a bit of a counterpoint, Apple does some traditional advertising. How do you view the effectiveness of Apple's advertising? A waste of money? Not enough to do anything more than set the mood?
Maybe they sold it all at $64k and rebought the #BTC at $45k
Of course I doubt it very much, but it would be one hell of an upside surprise
Don't sell shares, sell calls, keep shares...
Should be be concerned with light volume going into earnings? It appears we only get strong moves with strong volume. Is the light volume signaling a potential muted reaction to earnings. If we don't get volume tomorrow, the stock won't fly high regardless of how strong the results are, and worse is that FUD will lead to manipulation to cap the stock or sink it on blowout earnings. 
mblakele
FSD Beta (99)
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