Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Well, I admit it. I haven't been this bearish about the stock price (not the company) in forever. If FSD Beta doesn't just blow everyone's minds when it comes out late this year then we are in for a long slog. Just wondering when we start seeing PT decreases. The 1k targets seem impossible at this point.

Dumb question, but why should analysts' PT's decrease, surely they're based on production, sales, margin and profitability forecasts going forwards, not on whether the stock price has dropped for not obvious reason

 

[enzo]

The social media backlash against Musk for perceived betrayal (which is inane) should be interpreted psychologically. He is such a beloved father figure and so much hope has been placed in him to 'save the world', or bring wealth and riches, that many childlike minds will readily lash out at him when he pauses memeing and make a 'serious' decision in conjunction with lawyers. This actually demonstrates a hunger to see him succeed. But some children will never understand that he reached this point not through irony and memes, but by cut-throat business management and personal involvement in the products. He is innovating at light speed and in the span of only a few months has pushed cryptocurrency through a teething phase. He has made many grown men cry and moan. Like Boring Co and Neuralink, what is unthinkable to most men is merely a side project for Elon Musk. The stock price and coin prices are irrelevant to his march of progress, but will eventually catch up to it.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Indeed, the Tesla adventure with bitcoins may have led to concerns by some institutional and retail investors, along with potential car customers. A stronger board of directors would likely have overruled corporate involvement with such uncertain, volatile and environmentally questionable currency.

Yep. Never liked it and I'm glad they've done an about-face.

 

[tslagreen]

Yes, but maybe the captains should have know well ahead of buying/accepting $BTC that it's an environmental disaster

Is it coincidence that the stock started going to *sugar* the moment this whole $BTC thing came out in the 2020 10-K?

I like to dick about with crypto, but this whole thing has been a debacle. First you upset all the boomers by buying, now you upset all the millennials by criticising

Way to go... Yeah, maybe something else is cooking and at the end we'll all applaud and say "oh, that's clever", but right now it just looks inept

I agree. Love Elon and Tesla and have invested since 2013 and owned a Model S since 2015, but this was a mistake - at least the handling of the whole situation.
Still plan on holding for at least 5-10 years from here though and haven't sold a share (other than a few margin calls here and there).

 

[asburgers]

I think I will hold the line for a while longer to evaluate. This does not make any sense.

 

[Nocturnal]

Dumb question, but why should analysts' PT's decrease, surely they're based on production, sales, margin and profitability forecasts going forwards, not on whether the stock price has dropped for not obvious reason

I'm no expert but if market sentiment has changed around a company/sector then that impacts PTs, up or down. It comes down to the multiple people are willing to pay.

 

[traxila]

That is very unlikely IMO. Big players have moved into BTC and spent lots of resources to sell to their clients or hold themselves. Absolute worst case Tesla winds back up at break even with their purchase.


That's what happens when all corp comm has to go through one man's twitter account, a man with a family and who runs several companies.

Maybe. But past history say BTC can get whacked and forgotten about for a while.

Hit almost 20K in the last run and then ground down to 3K. Equivalent now would be about 10K.

It is at 50k as I write. If Tesla and Elon really have issues with BTC as described I suggest they start and keep selling. Of course, Elon stated they were not selling BTC... Another bothersome statement. Why say that? Were you trying to avoid a crash? Did not work!

And now if you sell... what does that make you?

Are you obligated to tweet before you sell now?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

The idea that Tesla first poured money in crypto and then started looking around for issues with it... this really bothers me. It makes no sense.

I wonder if they were pressured to do it by a government they are trying to curry favor with that doesn't like BTC. That's the only way it makes sense to me.

 

[Tslynk67]

That is very unlikely IMO. Big players have moved into BTC and spent lots of resources to sell to their clients or hold themselves. Absolute worst case Tesla winds back up at break even with their purchase.


That's what happens when all corp comm has to go through one man's twitter account, a man with a family and who runs several companies.

Exactly, which is why Tesla need to use their official Twitter account and have someone man it - not to be a "funny" account, the big-sheep guy got a bit too out of hand, but disseminate company news and facts, counter FUD news with facts where possible, don't engage with people, just put information out there

Or use ir.tesla to be more "official"

To reiterate, I don't want any defending of the share price, but I want the company to be represented correctly

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Think about this...through all this FUD, BTC, negativity, etc....the 'real and respected' analysts have only increased their PT's on $TSLA...let that sink in if there is any doubt.

 

[Curt Renz]

I think I will hold the line for a while longer to evaluate. This does not make any sense.

A significant factor this week may be taxes which are due on Monday. Investors who took some profits on high flying growth stocks in 2020, may now be paying the taxes on those realized gains by selling more shares of stocks. Considering the two-business-day settlement period for stock trades, today may be the heaviest day for such stock selling to pay taxes.

 

[dl003]

Maybe. But past history say BTC can get whacked and forgotten about for a while.

Hit almost 20K in the last run and then ground down to 3K. Equivalent now would be about 10K.

It is at 50k as I write. If Tesla and Elon really have issues with BTC as described I suggest they start and keep selling. Of course, Elon stated they were not selling BTC... Another bothersome statement. Why say that? Were you trying to avoid a crash? Did not work!

And now if you sell... what does that make you?

Are you obligated to tweet before you sell now?

I think they should sell and get it over with. Elon is no stranger to the idea that if you want to do it right, do it from the ground up. I'm opposed to holding BTC, especially during this sensitive period.

 

[Nocturnal]

Maybe. But past history say BTC can get whacked and forgotten about for a while.

Hit almost 20K in the last run and then ground down to 3K. Equivalent now would be about 10K.

It is at 50k as I write. If Tesla and Elon really have issues with BTC as described I suggest they start and keep selling. Of course, Elon stated they were not selling BTC... Another bothersome statement. Why say that? Were you trying to avoid a crash? Did not work!

And now if you sell... what does that make you?

Are you obligated to tweet before you sell now?

"It's different this time" is the calling card of a fool but things are different. That last cycle didn't have companies like JP Morgan and Tesla holding huge quantities of it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Is it coincidence that the stock started going to *sugar* the moment this whole $BTC thing came out in the 2020 10-K?

Yeah, that's revisionist history. The downtrend started just before the Q1 earnings call, on Jan 26, 2021:

The bitcoin announcement was made in the 2020 10-K which was released on Feb 8, 2021. As you can see above, TSLA already had 2 down days followed by a flat day before the 10-K dropped. Once we hit the Lower-BB, it was an easy matter for naked shortzes to make TSLA ride it down until the next major good news (Q1 P&D).

The reality is that shortzes were going to use any excuse at hand to point at as the cause for what they intended to do all along. Do you remember when Mr. Big Short himself Michael Burry was tweeting "enjoy it while it lasts" at TSLA longs? When was that? Do you think he did that is isolation, or did he talk to friends 'in the club'?

Michael Burry To Tesla Investors: 'Enjoy It While It Lasts' › Yahoo news › michael-burry-tesla | Jan 8, 2021

Here's some free advice: shortzes are gonna short, the system is corrupt, and its the only one we've got until somebody builds something better.

Now who do you think that could be? People like Elon, or people like Burry? The manta in Silicon Valley is 'fail quickly'. It's ugly, but it got us reusable rockets and cheap access to space, then starlink. Wanna bet Elon fixes crypto next? If he can do that, can he fix the Market too? .

I hope so, but Elon needs allies. That's got to start with us, because it surely won't be Michael Burry et. al. Allow the man to fail, regroup and try again. It's the proven way forward, when 250 yrs of the other management style has only gotten us to 420 ppm.

Cheers!

 

[oldTAVguy]

I think I will hold the line for a while longer to evaluate. This does not make any sense.

The market can stay insane longer than most can stay solvent.

 

[Tslynk67]

Yeah, that's revisionist history. The downtrend started just before the Q1 earnings call, on Jan 26, 2021:

View attachment 661950

The bitcoin announcement was made in the 2020 10-K which was released on Feb 8, 2021. As you can see above, TSLA already had 2 down days followed by a flat day before the 10-K dropped. Once we hit the Lower-BB, it was an easy matter for naked shortzes to make TSLA ride it down until the next major good news (Q1 P&D).

The reality is that shortzes were going to use any excuse at hand to point at as the cause for what they intended to do all along. Do you remember when Mr. Big Short himself Michael Burry was tweeting "enjoy it while it lasts" at TSLA longs? When was that? Do you think he did that is isolation, or did he talk to friends 'in the club'?

Michael Burry To Tesla Investors: 'Enjoy It While It Lasts' › Yahoo news › michael-burry-tesla | Jan 8, 2021

Here's some free advice: shortzes are gonna short, the system is corrupt, and its the only one we've got until somebody builds something better.

Now who do you think that could be? People like Elon, or people like Burry? The manta in Silicon Valley is 'fail quickly'. It's ugly, but it got us reusable rockets and cheap access to space, then starlink. Wanna bet Elon fixes crypto next? If he can do that, can he fix the Market too? .

I hope so, but Elon needs allies. That's got to start with us, because it surely won't be Michael Burry et. al. Allow the man to fail, regroup and try again. It's the proven way forward, when 250 yrs of the other management style has only gotten us to 420 ppm.

Cheers!

Thanks for the facts, Arty, I guess we're all a bit edgy right now (except Fred, who sold at a decent price a few months back - damn him )

 

[Drax7]

That is very unlikely IMO. Big players have moved into BTC and spent lots of resources to sell to their clients or hold themselves. Absolute worst case Tesla winds back up at break even with their purchase.


That's what happens when all corp comm has to go through one man's twitter account, a man with a family and who runs several companies.

If and when the fed reverses course on monetary policy, will be a test
for Bitcoin. Even the anticipation of that course of action will be reflected
in the price of Bitcoin.

 

[StealthP3D]

Things that were once impossible become possible.

Absolutely!

Also, it behooves us to show a little compassion when dealing with innovators and their innovations. I’ve been on the side of an "outsider" advocating this idea or that innovation: That is hard especially when facing engineers (or a spouse) being "skeptical" or "practical" or "realistic." It can drain the life out of you because, as they say, if many get it, it’s probably too late.

I’m not saying to go easy on people’s ideas (I’ve also been on the other side—evaluating innovators and ideas and quite a few). I’m saying be mindful of what they are expending and investing when they are speaking to you. Try to give them something in return (you can give a little energy back, maybe some encouragement or gently plant a seed for a change of direction), particularly because you’re not going to invest/participate in the vast majority of cases.

Compassion has no place in investing. Compassion is a noble quality and extremely important but it's not useful in investing. Compassion helps individuals who are going through trying times, it's an interpersonal dynamic that shows you care.

I care deeply about making the transition to sustainable energy ASAP but capital must be allocated, not with compassion, but with logic. Because capital is a limited resource. The people trying to solve the many challenges of this endeavor are asking for the necessary money. If I used compassion I would give them all an equal amount and wish them luck. If I use logic I will give it to the one or two that I think have the best plan and wish all of them luck.

I had no compassion for Trevor Milton starting at an early stage, nor did I fund his company even though I believe we need cleaner heavy transport. I supported Tesla because I believe they have the right answer. You are welcome to convince me that BIG has a solution that can compete economically with land based based mining but you need to make a case that goes beyond that I should have compassion for anyone who claims to have a better way.

 

[lafrisbee]

I am still 4x richer than when I bought TSLA two decembers ago ...and that is with me mucking it up.

 

[FireMedic]

I remember feeling pretty hopeless during past downturns. We know how that played out.

A wise man once said; “Don’t panic”.
BTC will recover, I don’t own any, so it’s easy to see as an outsider; but when you’re sitting on gains…human nature says panic!

Remember; elevator down…stairs up. Patience is a virtue I’m still honing. Difficult at times like these tho.