Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

I converted 2 on-the-fence friends to placed model Y orders this weekend. What did the rest of you lot do?

Well, I provided investment advice to my best friend, who finally got off their duff and financially positioned well enough to begin investing in TSLA. Went and got my first vaccine shot and lived, though Saturday I was contemplating for several hours amputation of my injected arm with a butter knife. And I pet my cat. A lot. With the hand on my good arm.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Nice win today for the home team. An easy wire to wire win, with just a minimal fade at the end as they rested their starters. After losing 4 in a row, they have alternated between wins and losses the last 7 games, with 4 wins during that stretch. Perhaps the momentum is turning? Attendance for the last 10 has been about 10% higher than the season average.

Today
Score:	606.44
Margin of W/L:	25.56
Attendance:	34,488,961
High - Low:	40.83
Season
Record:	47-51
Total margin of wins:	1,029.35
Total margin of losses:	-1,128.58
YTD gain/loss:	-99.23	-14.06%
Best Win:	110.58	Mar 9
Worst Loss:	-68.83	Jan 11
Last 10:	4-6
Streak:	W1
Avg margin of victory:	21.90
Avg margin of defeat:	-22.13
Avg Attendance:	32,878,830
Avg Attendance of Last 10:	35,641,318
Avg High - Low:	38.57
Avg H - L of Last 10:	29.03

 

[Curt Renz]

Today TSLA closed above its 200-day SMA (simple moving average) of $593. This after bouncing nicely on Wednesday following a significant Fibonacci 38.2% drop from its all-time high. A continuation upward could be encouraging from a technical perspective.

 

[Tachyon]

Also should people really get so excited about how many outlets are on a truck? Wouldnt most people for most use cases be running 1 or 2 long heavy duty power chords plugged into a power strip?

Outlets are the new cup holders .

 

[WattsHappening]

Democrats have repeatedly said July/Aug timeframe

Ya, Dems would like to pass this before the August recess. But you know there is going to a lot of opposition and gear-grinding by Republicans. It should pass, but I would not make a short term bet that it's going to happen this summer.

Dem’s don’t need to negotiate or need a single Republican vote. Don’t be fooled by the appearance of what’s going on. They’re using the month of May to show that they’re willing to play ball with Republicans in good faith....but they can pass this thing at any time they want.

Technically this is correct. But practically speaking, there is a lot more nuance than this. If Democrats and the Biden administration try to ram this down the throats of Republicans, they will likely lose Manchin and possibly Sinema. I'm sure that's one reason Biden is trying to negotiate with Reps. Without getting too political, I think it's a waste of time trying to negotiate with Reps, but Biden still has to be seen as making a concerted effort, if for no other reason than for optics for Manchin and Sinema.

 

[Discoducky]

Today TSLA closed above its 200-day SMA (simple moving average) of $593. This after bouncing nicely on Wednesday following a significant Fibonacci 38.2% drop from its all-time high. A continuation upward could be encouraging from a technical perspective.

And I've heard that June-August is a good time for TSLA appreciation. Not sure where I've heard that...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Ya, Dems would like to pass this before the August recess. But you know there is going to a lot of opposition and gear-grinding by Republicans. It should pass, but I would not make a short term bet that it's going to happen this summer.

Technically this is correct. But practically speaking, there is a lot more nuance than this. If Democrats and the Biden administration try to ram this down the throats of Republicans, they will likely lose Manchin and possibly Sinema. I'm sure that's one reason Biden is trying to negotiate with Reps. Without getting too political, I think it's a waste of time trying to negotiate with Reps, but Biden still has to be seen as making a concerted effort, if for no other reason than for optics for Manchin and Sinema.

Yup, hence why I said Biden and Democrats are using the month of May to make it appear that they’re negotiation with Republicans. Once we’re past May, they can in good faith say Republicans didn’t want to negotiate and we’re moving on through reconciliation.

Also.....way too much gets made out of Manchin. If he holds up the bill....Democrats and Biden will make him the scapegoat and he will shoulder the entire collapse of the plan. No way he would commit political suicide

 

[Knightshade]

Yup, hence why I said Biden and Democrats are using the month of May to make it appear that they’re negotiation with Republicans. Once we’re past May, they can in good faith say Republicans didn’t want to negotiate and we’re moving on through reconciliation.

Also.....way too much gets made out of Machin. If he holds up the bill....Democrats and Biden will make him the scapegoat and he will shoulder the entire collapse of the plan. No way he would commit political suicide

Manchin, who won his party primary with 70% of the vote last time, also isn't up for election again until 2024 when he'll already be 77 years old.

That said- he's only going to hold it up long enough to get stuff in there that otherwise wouldn't be in there- that's how this stuff works- favor for favor.

 

[ggr]

Ex-mod: Dropping in to remind people that politics is way off topic. --ggr

 

[dww12]

This is from Jeff’s video today. They are making more front Y castings in the rain. I’d love to stick one of those apple trackers on and see where they go.

 

[WattsHappening]

Yup, hence why I said Biden and Democrats are using the month of May to make it appear that they’re negotiation with Republicans. Once we’re past May, they can in good faith say Republicans didn’t want to negotiate and we’re moving on through reconciliation.

Also.....way too much gets made out of Manchin. If he holds up the bill....Democrats and Biden will make him the scapegoat and he will shoulder the entire collapse of the plan. No way he would commit political suicide

Imho, the idea of political suicide is what keeps Manchin from voting for the plan. I know you know this, but WV is like +40 Republican with a coal industry to protect. Manchin voting in favor of the EV bill will not be looked upon kindly by his constituents. Biden is going to have to win him over with political 'favors.'

 

[OrthoSurg]

I was getting ready mentally to buy some extra chairs in the 400s before the 12 straight green days in July. Just when I start to have a plan, the opposite happens.

 

[StealthP3D]

Also should people really get so excited about how many outlets are on a truck? Wouldnt most people for most use cases be running 1 or 2 long heavy duty power chords plugged into a power strip?

Ford Vice President of New Product Development: Isn't there anything you can do to make the Lightning specs more competitive with Tesla?
Lead Engineer: I'm sorry sir, not within the parameters we were instructed to work within.
Ford Vice President of New Product Development: I'm just worried the media reaction to the unveiling will be underwhelming.
Lead Engineer: Our hands are tied sir, we are already stretching the budgeted cost to the absolute limit.
Ford Vice President of New Product Development: Well, how much could it cost to add a bunch more electrical outlets to wow them with?
Lead Engineer: No sir, electrical outlets are dirt cheap but the research provided by the Department of Customer Usage Patterns determined that 2 120V outlets were more than sufficient to cover 99.96% of all use cases.
Ford Vice President of New Product Development: Well, screw them, I didn't even know we had a Department of Customer Usage Patterns, how much could it cost to bring the total to 10 electrical outlets?
Lead Engineer: I'll request a study on that from the Cost Accounting department and get back to you by next Friday, if it pleases you sir.
Ford Vice President of New Product Development: We don't have time for that you idiot, I'm asking you for a down and dirty cost estimate!
Lead Engineer: Apologies sir, I think it would be less than $35 or so. Of course that assumes we can find suitable locations for all of them without reducing other functionality or creating safety hazards.
Ford Vice President of New Product Development: Well how hard can it be? Don't answer that, that was a rhetorical question. Damn, I had no idea electrical outlets were so cheap. I'll instruct the Vice President of New Product Marketing in the Truck Division to let his folks know I want 10 outlets announced at the reveal, no, scratch that, we're taking this thing to eleven. Ten is for pussies. I want everyone to know the F-150 Lightning doesn't stop at 10 electrical outlets, it goes to eleven! That might be from Spinal Tap but no one will be able to say I don't earn every dollar they pay me!
Lead Engineer: Yes sir, I've not had the pleasure of working for anyone as brilliant as you sir.
Ford Vice President of New Product Development: And that realization is why you are the Lead Engineer! Now get to work finding places to put those outlets, not ten, I want eleven.
Lead Engineer: Yes sir, you can count on me sir!

And that is the true story of how the F-150 Lightning came to have, not 10, but 11 electrical outlets.

 

[Cherry Wine]

The usual Twitter bulls / rumor peddlers are dropping hints that the June 3rd event will be quite the spectacle.

 

[GOVA]

The usual Twitter bulls / rumor peddlers are dropping hints that the June 3rd event will be quite the spectacle.

I think we'll see/hear about the Tesla Semi too. Frito Lay does not install those chargers for nothing.

 

[Hock1]

Nice win today for the home team. An easy wire to wire win, with just a minimal fade at the end as they rested their starters. After losing 4 in a row, they have alternated between wins and losses the last 7 games, with 4 wins during that stretch. Perhaps the momentum is turning? Attendance for the last 10 has been about 10% higher than the season average.

Today
Score:	606.44
Margin of W/L:	25.56
Attendance:	34,488,961
High - Low:	40.83
Season
Record:	47-51
Total margin of wins:	1,029.35
Total margin of losses:	-1,128.58
YTD gain/loss:	-99.23	-14.06%
Best Win:	110.58	Mar 9
Worst Loss:	-68.83	Jan 11
Last 10:	4-6
Streak:	W1
Avg margin of victory:	21.90
Avg margin of defeat:	-22.13
Avg Attendance:	32,878,830
Avg Attendance of Last 10:	35,641,318
Avg High - Low:	38.57
Avg H - L of Last 10:	29.03

I have no way of substantiating my opinion, but I believe much of today's buying pressure was due to the winding down of the attempt to pin the stock price at the $580 strike. Their greed to try to pin 580 (as opposed to 590) is costing them a lot to unwind today and, hopefully, tomorrow. JMO.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Interesting from Gary Black:

Ford Vice President of New Product Development: Isn't there anything you can do to make the Lightning specs more competitive with Tesla?
Lead Engineer: I'm sorry sir, not within the parameters we were instructed to work within.
Ford Vice President of New Product Development: I'm just worried the media reaction to the unveiling will be underwhelming.
Lead Engineer: Our hands are tied sir, we are already stretching the budgeted cost to the absolute limit.
Ford Vice President of New Product Development: Well, how much could it cost to add a bunch more electrical outlets to wow them with?
Lead Engineer: No sir, electrical outlets are dirt cheap but the research provided by the Department of Customer Usage Patterns determined that 2 120V outlets were more than sufficient to cover 99.96% of all use cases.
Ford Vice President of New Product Development: Well, screw them, I didn't even know we had a Department of Customer Usage Patterns, how much could it cost to bring the total to 10 electrical outlets?
Lead Engineer: I'll request a study on that from the Cost Accounting department and get back to you by next Friday, if it pleases you sir.
Ford Vice President of New Product Development: We don't have time for that you idiot, I'm asking you for a down and dirty cost estimate!
Lead Engineer: Apologies sir, I think it would be less than $35 or so. Of course that assumes we can find suitable locations for all of them without reducing other functionality or creating safety hazards.
Ford Vice President of New Product Development: Well how hard can it be? Don't answer that, that was a rhetorical question. Damn, I had no idea electrical outlets were so cheap. I'll instruct the Vice President of New Product Marketing in the Truck Division to let his folks know I want 10 outlets announced at the reveal, no, scratch that, we're taking this thing to eleven. Ten is for pussies. I want everyone to know the F-150 Lightning doesn't stop at 10 electrical outlets, it goes to eleven! That might be from Spinal Tap but no one will be able to say I don't earn every dollar they pay me!
Lead Engineer: Yes sir, I've not had the pleasure of working for anyone as brilliant as you sir.
Ford Vice President of New Product Development: And that realization is why you are the Lead Engineer! Now get to work finding places to put those outlets, not ten, I want eleven.
Lead Engineer: Yes sir, you can count on me sir!

And I swear on my mother's grave, that is the true story of how the F-150 Lightning came to have, not 10, but 11 electrical outlets.

Mike Levine: Fear Not...I will make a napkin drawing with thrusters on the F-150 lightning and it will sell like hotcakes

 

[MC3OZ]

@StealthP3D who is a pure fanboi.

While I liked this post overall, I disagree with this point..

IMO long term investors ask 3 key questions...

A. Will this matter in 5 years time? - 99% of the time the answer is NO.

B. Am I 100% sure Tesla is wong? - this is a mixed answer
40% of the time I think Tesla is right, even when many think they are wrong..
30% of the time, I don't quite have enough information to form a definite opinion.
30% of the time, I think Tesla may be wrong but that brings me to the next question...

C. What is the alternative?
I think the alternative critics assume will work, has only been subjected to skin deep analysis, often there is no easy path.
Taking FSD as a example there are 2 key questions an alternative solution would need to answer:-
1. How long will it take?
2. How will you fund development?

In the end for the 30% of the time Tesla is probably wrong, the alternative is no walk in the park, or wil cost of a lot of money.

Critics never to subject their alternative proposal to rigorous scrutiny, it is just assumed to work, or the cost is ignored.

Maybe there are things Tesla could have done better, I don't doubt it, but it is not a common problem.

Ultimately everything boils down to Question A.

 

[elasalle]

The usual Twitter bulls / rumor peddlers are dropping hints that the June 3rd event will be quite the spectacle.

Maybe they read some TMC posts from a few days ago ahem

Flashy shiny objects on twitter and you tube are easier to believe

Kiddin aside, hope they are right. cheers!!

 

[phantasms]

The usual Twitter bulls / rumor peddlers are dropping hints that the June 3rd event will be quite the spectacle.

I 100% agree. I think a lot of pieces had to come together for release. I expect V11, FSD subscriptions, and some level of improved FSD at the public or beta level.

Hopefully we also get some sense of what is up with the wing car. Doesn’t seem like Plaid has that but why break records with Plaid+ when they essentially just took it off the menu and kicked it to 12 months from now.

Im glad I only write my covered calls at 900+……for pennies.