Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Wednesday Night Drags - 6/16/21 (Emmett Peppers Plaid S 9.71s @ 149mph)

- Youtube link w. direct timestamp to Emmett's quarter mile fun (4h 31m 51s)

Cheers!

 

[insaneoctane]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1405293441106460672

It’s SO clear…..the sequel….the 2nd…..IN TWO WEEKS! I can’t wait

 

[MikeAtkinson]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1405293441106460672

It’s SO clear…..the sequel….the 2nd…..IN TWO WEEKS! I can’t wait

https://twitter.com/x/status/1405333858539606021

Video games = $GME Movies = $AMC The Sequel = $TSLA short burn , the 2nd

which seems to be confirmed by:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1405406711947661318

 

[insaneoctane]

I was looking at the pricing of a supercharger near me on my map and was SHOCKED to see that during 10am to 7pm it was $0.42/kWh! That’s really getting up there. I was surprised that it’s as close as it is to gas prices. And yet Tesla promised semi buyers they would guarantee a price of 7¢/kWh? Hmmm.

To avoid the back and forth on my “close as at it is to gas prices” comment, here’s my math:

• Tesla LR M3, at 80 MPH gets around 250 miles per 75 kWh tank. 75 x $0.42 = $31.50. $31.50 / 250 miles = $0.126/mi
• ICE, at 80 MPH gets around 450 miles per 18 gal tank. 18 x $4.00 = $72.00. $72.00 / 450 miles = $0.16/mi
• Almost 80% of the price of gas….

Anyone else concerned about that guaranteed semi rate?

 

[petit_bateau]

He left & cashed out, nothing more

Up until now he was a senior insider. That meant he knew how safe his TSLA shares were in return for accepting various trading restrictions. Now as an outsider he is cut off from almost all of that inside information, and his old inside-information will have a very short half-life given Tesla's pace. Therefore he is moving to a more diversified portfolio to avoid concentration risk in his retirement.

(I guess I should do the same)

 

[MikeAtkinson]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1405293441106460672

It’s SO clear…..the sequel….the 2nd…..IN TWO WEEKS! I can’t wait

They might be trying to coordinate various announcements for 2nd July: P&D, FSD, subscriptions, etc.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Wouldn’t the Tesla AC system design be rather incompatible with a home system? Sure the air purification would be great, but the underlying system in the cars is based on moving excess heat generated by the motors to the battery and passenger cabin as required using the octovalve (combined with some traditional A/C elements IIRC?). A home heating system doesn’t have these local sources of heat energy to redistribute into the living space, instead it would need to be entirely based on the same heat pump reverse cycle principles that are currently deployed in home heat pumps. I would love to see some innovation in the home heat pump space that improves the efficiency though and would love to see Tesla give it a try.

I also wonder how the distributed nature of appliances in a house would be overcome. In a vehicle the sources and uses of head are all relatively close together.

For peak heat scavenging in a house you'd need to plumb through to the kitchen, laundry, bathrooms to pick up waste heat generation. Then existing heating and cooling channels would need to be hooked up to the new heat exchanger. Not an impossible task but at first glance it sounds like an expensive process for existing homes.

I could see an excellent product for green (potentially fully off-grid) prefab homes designed from inception for Tesla to supply all the solar/energy storage/heat management equipment. Tesla already has many other manufacturing talents that could translate well to this product (e.g. glassmaking, efficient electric motors for appliances, heaters, air conditioning, etc). As an example product HUF Haus already makes very nice pre-fabbed houses that would be desired by millions of people - adding in Tesla tech would make it even better.

 

[MC3OZ]

And yet Tesla promised semi buyers they would guarantee a price of 7¢/kWh? Hmmm.

My conclusion is that 7¢/kWh is subsidised, or it is a solar farm...

If it is a solar farm, cheaper Supercharging rates might also be available...

Overall, I expect Supercharging to pay for the expansion of Supercharging...

We may see an aggressive deployment, and an opening of the network to other vehicles.

The reality is most of us charge at home, and don't mind paying more when on holiday

 

[avoigt]

@avoigt reporting that GF Berlin is planned to start in early November!
Details via patreon link which I don´t have.

(This still depends on final permit though for which a second public hearing will likely be necessary after Tesla changed the permit application, for example to include cell production and lower amount of water needed, so I would read this date as NET/if everything goes according to plan)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1405257291683729411

Tesla plans for two different cell types in Giga Berlin

The information a source from the Giga Berlin plant leaked to me is credible

 

[15Peter20]

My conclusion is that 7¢/kWh is subsidised, or it is a solar farm...

If it is a solar farm, cheaper Supercharging rates might also be available...

Overall, I expect Supercharging to pay for the expansion of Supercharging...

We may see an aggressive deployment, and an opening of the network to other vehicles.

The reality is most of us charge at home, and don't mind paying more when on holiday

Trouble is, plenty of folk, especially in the UK, can't charge at home. The anti-EV media have made this a divisive subject (natch), so rather than charging at home being seen as a fortunate privilege and a huge benefit of EV over ICE, not being able to charge at home is portrayed as a disadvantage of EVs ('cause everybody has a petrol pump in their driveway /s).

Anything that can at least help to close the cost of charging gap between home/mains grid and public charging network has to be good for EV adoption (home/solar is much less emotive as there's relatively little of it over here and you have to invest heavily in it to see a return).

 

[BobbyKings]

Tesla plans for two different cell types in Giga Berlin

The information a source from the Giga Berlin plant leaked to me is credible

The article contains 2 pictures from inside Giga Berlin and information not known yet

https://www.patreon.com/posts/tesla-giga-start-52584506

Please read carefully. It says two different Model Y versions, not two different cell types. So do not jump to conclusions. Could be LR and Performance versions.

 

[nativewolf]

Tesla plans for two different cell types in Giga Berlin

The information a source from the Giga Berlin plant leaked to me is credible

The article contains 2 pictures from inside Giga Berlin and information not known yet

https://www.patreon.com/posts/tesla-giga-start-52584506

I've enjoyed seeing you develop your business. How's that going?

What do you think about calls to open the supercharger network in the EU? I sort of figured that VW was going to roll out a fairly comprehensive charging network. Why the call to open what is a pretty limited charging network?

 

[truwa]

Please read carefully. It says two different Model Y versions, not two different cell types. So do not jump to conclusions. Could be LR and Performance versions.

My theory (yeah, it is just a theory) :

How can Tesla differ 4680 Model Y from the others? If price is the same, everyone will want 4680.

If Tesla can find a way to use CATL's LFP cells in the structural pack then Tesla could build two versions of Model Ys from the new factories; Berlin and Austin. With structural pack perhaps Model Y SR LFP achieves 280 or so miles of range. We already know that LFP cells has good thermal properties.

4680 goes only into the Performance trim until volume production of the cells are not a problem anymore.

 

[MABMAB]

I was looking at the pricing of a supercharger near me on my map and was SHOCKED to see that during 10am to 7pm it was $0.42/kWh! That’s really getting up there. I was surprised that it’s as close as it is to gas prices. And yet Tesla promised semi buyers they would guarantee a price of 7¢/kWh? Hmmm.

To avoid the back and forth on my “close as at it is to gas prices” comment, here’s my math:

• Tesla LR M3, at 80 MPH gets around 250 miles per 75 kWh tank. 75 x $0.42 = $31.50. $31.50 / 250 miles = $0.126/mi
• ICE, at 80 MPH gets around 450 miles per 18 gal tank. 18 x $4.00 = $72.00. $72.00 / 450 miles = $0.16/mi
• Almost 80% of the price of gas….

Anyone else concerned about that guaranteed semi rate?

No not shocked. Our utilities are on a time of use plan, that rate allows profit and/or building expense. Don't like it? Don't charge during peak times.
Concerned? eh no. Because very little of my charging is not at home at max of 10% of price of gas. Oh that's right, we have solar, it is less than that...
Semi? There are too many things that I do not have control over to worry about, you worry about that.

Sell your stock and stop worrying.

 

[Unpilot]

Sell your stock and stop worrying

Heretic

 

[mongo]

I was looking at the pricing of a supercharger near me on my map and was SHOCKED to see that during 10am to 7pm it was $0.42/kWh! That’s really getting up there. I was surprised that it’s as close as it is to gas prices. And yet Tesla promised semi buyers they would guarantee a price of 7¢/kWh? Hmmm.

To avoid the back and forth on my “close as at it is to gas prices” comment, here’s my math:

• Tesla LR M3, at 80 MPH gets around 250 miles per 75 kWh tank. 75 x $0.42 = $31.50. $31.50 / 250 miles = $0.126/mi
• ICE, at 80 MPH gets around 450 miles per 18 gal tank. 18 x $4.00 = $72.00. $72.00 / 450 miles = $0.16/mi
• Almost 80% of the price of gas….

Anyone else concerned about that guaranteed semi rate?

$0.42 is the fully loaded price including Supercharger network install, expansion, and maintenance.
$0.07 is the per kwH cost on its own. Couple options: a delivery fee is added on (like utilities) or, bigger picture, the install is done and owned by Tesla and includes large scale roof solar and Megapack such that Tesla makes $$$ on the extra power generated and load leveling.

Side note, the Austin Joe T. video recently showed the new pre fab V3 Supercharger cabinet plus four pedestals. I think this could as easily be a cabinet and one Semi charge port (based on the 4 parallel power connections seen in the semi power plug).

 

[dgodfrey]

My conclusion is that 7¢/kWh is subsidised, or it is a solar farm...

If it is a solar farm, cheaper Supercharging rates might also be available...

Overall, I expect Supercharging to pay for the expansion of Supercharging...

We may see an aggressive deployment, and an opening of the network to other vehicles.

The reality is most of us charge at home, and don't mind paying more when on holiday

Or the $.07 rate is subsidized from the purchase price. He could just as well said it was free like the old days.

 

[Artful Dodger]

$600 is likely the preferred SP for Options Market Makers this week. A Friday Close at that price kills a huge number of bets in both Calls and Puts at that strike price. Alternatively, if the SP moves in either direction away from their preferred SP, it costs them in increased payouts. Here's the OI from this morning: (note the row highlighted in yellow)



With over 1.4M options contracts open for this week's "triple witching Friday", the dawgs will likely have their day.

Cheers!

Options open interest (Calls + Puts) continues to narrow at the $600 Strike: (see BOLD below)

In spite of heavy options trading yesterday (total OI is now > 1.5M contracts representing 150M shares), the $600 Strike continues to be the most advantageous SP for MMs at Friday's Close.

Cheers!

 

[Mengy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1405333858539606021

Interesting theory. I wonder why Elon really changed his twitter handle though? Could be time for that already approved 2 for 1 stock split which hasn't happened yet...

 

[Unpilot]

I for one would love a stock split just to watch the talking heads on cnbc foam at the mouth explaining how it does not mean anything.