Gary Black on Twitter is so out of depth in some areas, its ridiculous. He claims that every manufacturer will have a 25K EV in couple years and when Tesla solves FSD, other manufacturers will also magically solve it overnight. This is like claiming if Usain Bolt can run 100 meters in 9 seconds, every other random guy also run 100m in 9 seconds. Also, even if Tesla solves FSD, he assigns 0 value in the share price since every other manufacturer would have solved it. This is like claiming, there is no need to include revenues from Ad business of Google in GOOGs price because every other company also shows ads to the users.
Next, he will claim that Ford will launch a search engine and compete with Google or Walmart will launch reusable rockets next year and compete with SpaceX.
Either the guy is ultra dumb or he is trying to act dumb and fooling retail with wall street friends.
I agree with the idea that Tesla is increasing it's technological lead over other OEMs. However, the course of technology has been consistent. Once someone solves a given problem others soon reverse engineer, otherwise imitate or even have original contributions. From the steam engine, turbine engines, electricity, telephones, sound recording, auto-mobiles and so on not is always thus.
Gary Black is probably wrong in forecast, but... we're already moving quickly towards that goal. Ignoring for a moment the myriad Chinese OEM's already achieving that goal we have the Renault Zoe, Peugeot e-208, Kia Soul EV and many others that are dedicated to producing cheap mostly urban vehicles. The only way Black might be wrong is guessing "in a couple years". Possibly it will be around five years. Anyway the point is clear and obvious. The small and or cheap BEV market is poised for explosion.
We also should not forget the already well-established market for cheap simple slightly larger small vehicles such as The Dacia/Renault Logan that are being prepared for BEV models. Then think about the already produced London Taxi:
LEVC | Commercial Electric Vehicle Manufacturer | Electric Taxis | Electric Van
The US$25,000 vehicle is nearly ready now. As massive battery production and development emerges within the next few years we'll see a plethora of those cheap cars Gary Black speaks about.
Please don't dismiss rapid technology evolution, it is happening right now. We all know Tesla started at the top of the market and has been dominant thus far. We also know Tesla is investing in even faster progress. That does not mean Tesla will dominate all others, it already does not.
The Tesla and Elon Musk mission is already happening, slowly now but poised for exponential growth during the next half decade.
In other words, as adoption rises products become more varied and prices go down. Examine any new technology adoption curve you wish, the message is the same.
