Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Who produces the pack is not important. Who designed the pack? What about electronics for communication and thermal management in the pack? It is a Tesla designed pack.

Yeah, that's not how it works. Tesla wrote the specification for the pack (and does QA / acceptance testing). CATL designs and build the pack. DKurac from Shanghai discusses:

Following the trail of CATL’s “Tesla Module” Solution (Part I) | by Moneyball | Medium (May 2020)

"CATL has to provide Tesla with a sufficiently economic and functional product without adjusting size and form of the outer battery pack casing. Following are the most feasible module solutions (solution with output poles on both ends will not be discussed for now)"​

Cheers!

 

[redan]

2022 Tesla Model S Plaid First Test: 0–60 MPH in 1.98 Seconds (under very specific conditions dictated by Tesla, that is). | Motortrend.com (2 hrs ago)

"The 1020-hp Tesla Model S Plaid accelerates from 0 to 60 mph in 1.98 seconds- under very specific circumstances dictated by Tesla."​

Cheers!

Overall, a very favorable article. The initial noise about the negotiations back and forth with Tesla on testing detracts a little from the main messages in the article, namely, lots of high praise, including:

The Model S Plaid zips down the quarter mile in a staggeringly quick 9.25 seconds at 152.6 mph. The run from 0 to 60 mph happens just 1.98 seconds after the brutally hard launch. The Plaid covers distance so quickly, it's difficult to even register what's happening. The yoke gets light in your hands, your neck muscles strain as your helmeted head digs into the headrest, and your surroundings blur into mere shapes and colors as a quarter mile of pavement vanishes underneath you.

Going To Plaid In The Real World​

Ironically, the breathtaking straight-line achievements distract from another monumental achievement: The Model S Plaid is quite simply the best Tesla yet. It doesn't matter if you're cruising down the highway, slogging through city traffic, or slicing down your favorite back road. The Model S Plaid delivers, no matter what you ask it to do.

The Verdict​

Although the 2022 Tesla Model S Plaid didn't deliver a sub-2.0-second 0-60 time on typical asphalt—at least not yet—it's no less of a striking achievement for the California-based automaker: The quickest car we've ever tested is a $150K five-seat sedan, not some multimillion-dollar, carbon-fiber-encrusted road missile. It's remarkably well rounded, exhibiting a combination of comfort, luxury, performance, and efficiency that remained a sci-fi fantasy in 2013 when we named the Model S the MotorTrend Car of the Year. Regardless of how much you care about acceleration numbers and how they're achieved, perhaps the most important takeaway is that the Model S Plaid is absolutely among the best cars on the market today.

 

[Krugerrand]

I was looking at the pricing of a supercharger near me on my map and was SHOCKED to see that during 10am to 7pm it was $0.42/kWh! That’s really getting up there. I was surprised that it’s as close as it is to gas prices. And yet Tesla promised semi buyers they would guarantee a price of 7¢/kWh? Hmmm.

Anyone else concerned about that guaranteed semi rate?

Not until I’m driving my semi.

 

[scaesare]

Whoa there. Let's take a step back and understand why exactly engineers make good businesspeople in the tech sector and why pure finance people don't.

The reason is NOT because counting beans is bad. Counting beans is a fundamental part of business. A business is gonna go nowhere if you can't count beans. Engineers make good CEOs partly because engineers are pretty good at counting beans. You don't think Elon Musk counts beans? Take a look at his "game of pennies" email.

Why don't pure finance people make good tech CEOs? The CEO needs to understand the process of creating technology. They don't actually need to understand the technology itself. You don't want a CEO designing parts at a CAD workstation. You damn sure don't want a CEO at a code review! But they need to understand how it is done. They need to understand when an engineering manager is telling you straight and when they're feeding you CYA BS. Pure finance people don't have that.

Bean counter with an engineering background? That's almost an ideal background for a big tech CEO, especially in a hardware field. Look at Apple.

Indeed.

I just happened to read the section of Liftoff by Eric Berger that talks about this within SpaceX... the following excerpt seem apropos:

During meetings, Musk will make snap decisions. This is one of the keys that enables SpaceX to move so quickly.
“I make the spending decisions and the engineering decisions in one head,” he said. “Normally those are at least two people. There’s some engineering guy who’s trying to convince a finance guy that this money should be spent. But the finance guy doesn’t understand engineering, so he can’t tell if this is a good way to spend money or not. Whereas I’m making the engineering decisions and spending decisions. So I know, already, that my brain trusts itself.”

 

[Artful Dodger]

The yoke gets light in your hands, your neck muscles strain as your helmeted head digs into the headrest, and your surroundings blur into mere shapes and colors as a quarter mile of pavement vanishes underneath you.

Hmmh... The 'xact same thing happens to me on Triple-Witching Fridays.

Cheers!

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

My conclusion is that 7¢/kWh is subsidised, or it is a solar farm...

If it is a solar farm, cheaper Supercharging rates might also be available...

Overall, I expect Supercharging to pay for the expansion of Supercharging...

We may see an aggressive deployment, and an opening of the network to other vehicles.

The reality is most of us charge at home, and don't mind paying more when on holiday

No idea about the US but in many countries there is also a huge difference between what consumers and business, in some sectors, actually pay for their electricity. For my private electricity bill only about 20-30% of the cost is what the actually electricity cost+profit for seller is. Businesses can deduct a number of the extra costs/fees/taxes that are added to my bill.

Also, the 7 cent price might be dependent on the business actually paying the cost of putting chargers in their distribution centers or wherever.

It's like comparing apples to oranges.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

All I know is only Elon could make Cybertruck work as a desired product. I'm pretty sure the exact same vehicle would fail at any other manufacturer (keeping price/stats relatively constant just varying the design).

There is no overstating just how 'rule breaking' this man is and how that is to our benefit assuming he stays sane. We monkeys just like imitating our heroes that much.

That’s because at any other company the CyberTruck would come out as a concept but by production it’ll look like an Aztec.

The latest example would be the Mercedes EQS. Beautiful as a concept but the actual production example is not so much.

 

[Knightshade]

Interesting theory. I wonder why Elon really changed his twitter handle though? Could be time for that already approved 2 for 1 stock split which hasn't happened yet...

IIRC there aren't enough outstanding approved shares, when considering employee grants, to do that.... someone showed the math many months ago and it was like max 1.9x to 1 or something considering that.

 

[StealthP3D]

Yes, but we should also look at the portion of total ownership these moves represent. Since most are made at scheduled intervals in advance for diversification and cash harvesting, they rarely indicate much positive or negative “inside information”. Perhaps Guillen getting parked in the Truck division was to allow him to set up his exit financially, and cover an opening while an executive search was underway (=speculation).

Far too much is made of insider selling in general as well as with Tesla. Statistical analyses have shown repeatedly that insider buying IS correlated with future increases in stock price while insider selling has zero correlation with future decreases in stock price.

Insider selling should be ignored unless the activity is highly unusual. However, that generally doesn't happen, especially inside large reputable corporations because it could only be associated with insider trading which is highly illegal. It's a waste of time to try to read meaning into insider selling. If my wealth was that concentrated in a single entity I would (and have) diversified. It's normal.

 

[scaesare]

Unfortunately this is just Elon using puffery.

On what do you base this?

 

[Nocturnal]

The rumors of dealerships buying Teslas just to have something on the lot to sell are wild. Can't wait to see pictures.


Seeing lots of talk about electricity prices. Don't forget Demand charges. Superchargers use up a lot of KW in a short period of time relative to a residential home. There is an entirely separate fee structure to account for that. If an SC uses 1000 kWh over the course of a day vs 1000kWh over the course of 15 minutes this would be a drastically different cost to Tesla. High demand translates to a strain on the grid, and you pay heavily for that. This is another reason why batteries at Superchargers makes a lot of sense.

 

[Beltsbear]

On what do you base this?

You clipped out the explanation. Including my own softening of that statement.

Simply put, cars are being added faster than the expansion. Elon has made similar statements before as well. A 'massive expansion' would be well at least 50% more in a year, that is not going to happen. In fact the number of Tesla's out there will easily double before the effective supercharging rate does the same. Effective supercharging rate means factoring in faster charging rates in the new chargers etc. It is indeed puffery. Around me on the east coast, there has been a trickle of new stations. And yes, very helpful. But still entire routes that can not be driven in small battery Tesla's like the eastern shore over the bay bridge tunnel.

 

[jerry33]

You clipped out the explanation. Including my own softening of that statement.

Simply put, cars are being added faster than the expansion. Elon has made similar statements before as well. A 'dramatic expansion' would be well at least 50% more in a year, that is not going to happen. In fact the number of Tesla's out there will easily double before the effective supercharging rate does the same. Effective supercharging rate means factoring in faster charging rates in the new chargers etc. It is indeed puffery. Around me on the east coast, there has been a trickle of new stations. And yes, very helpful. But still entire routes that can not be driven in small battery Tesla's like the eastern shore over the bay bridge tunnel.

Right now Supercharge.info shows 137 locations in permiting and 61 under construction, almost all of which are on either the East or West coasts, with virtually none in the middle. That's far more than I've ever seen it previously typically there's been 30-40 under construction and 40-60 in permitting. In addition there are upgrades to existing locations that don't show. Now I'm personally annoyed that there is almost nothing planned for the North-South routes in the central states, but saying that Tesla isn't upping the number of Supercharger installations just isn't true. Of course, more and faster is what everyone wants.

 

[JRP3]

Yeah, that's not how it works. Tesla wrote the specification for the pack (and does QA / acceptance testing). CATL designs and build the pack. DKurac from Shanghai discusses:

Following the trail of CATL’s “Tesla Module” Solution (Part I) | by Moneyball | Medium (May 2020)

"CATL has to provide Tesla with a sufficiently economic and functional product without adjusting size and form of the outer battery pack casing. Following are the most feasible module solutions (solution with output poles on both ends will not be discussed for now)"​

Cheers!

I see a lot of speculation in that article but no proof. My understanding was that CATL would provide the modules to Tesla and Tesla would build the pack. Is there any other evidence to the contrary?

 

[henchman24]

Right now Supercharge.info shows 137 locations in permiting and 61 under construction, almost all of which are on either the East or West coasts, with virtually none in the middle. That's far more than I've ever seen it previously typically there's been 30-40 under construction and 40-60 in permitting. In addition there are upgrades to existing locations that don't show. Now I'm personally annoyed that there is almost nothing planned for the North-South routes in the central states, but saying that Tesla isn't upping the number of Supercharger installations just isn't true. Of course, more and faster is what everyone wants.

Adding to this, in 2020 Tesla added 231 stations in North America (up from 194 in 2019). In 2021 116 have opened. Assuming those actually get finished that would put Tesla at 314 stations. We know all won't get finished and we also know more will just pop up.

Either way, it looks like a more rapid pace in 2021 than 2020 where 2020 outpaced 2019. Selfishly I'd like more in Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho... but Tesla seems to be moving at a fairly quick pace to me.

 

[mltv]

Adding to this, in 2020 Tesla added 231 stations in North America (up from 194 in 2019). In 2021 116 have opened. Assuming those actually get finished that would put Tesla at 314 stations. We know all won't get finished and we also know more will just pop up.

Either way, it looks like a more rapid pace in 2021 than 2020 where 2020 outpaced 2019. Selfishly I'd like more in Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho... but Tesla seems to be moving at a fairly quick pace to me.

Wondering what is the impact of MIC charging units and prefab charging units.

 

[SarahsDad]

2022 Tesla Model S Plaid First Test: 0–60 MPH in 1.98 Seconds (under very specific conditions dictated by Tesla, that is). | Motortrend.com (2 hrs ago)

"The 1020-hp Tesla Model S Plaid accelerates from 0 to 60 mph in 1.98 seconds- under very specific circumstances dictated by Tesla."​

Cheers!

Interesting that more G's are generated during acceleration than deceleration. Clearly they're at the limits of tire friction. So Roadster won't be quicker (without air thrusters). Nice engineering breakdown of this on the linked video (ignore the clickbait title).

 

[scaesare]

You clipped out the explanation. Including my own softening of that statement.

Simply put, cars are being added faster than the expansion.

Elon did not state supercharger install rate would exceed car production rate.

Elon has made similar statements before as well.

And indeed there have been times where supercharger installation rates have had significant acceleration.

A 'dramatic expansion' would be well at least 50% more in a year...

It seems you are re-defining "dramatic" to fit your pwn personal wishes:

dramatic​

[ druh-mat-ik ]SHOW IPA

adjective​

highly effective; striking

In fact the number of Tesla's out there will easily double before the effective supercharging rate does the same. Effective supercharging rate means factoring in faster charging rates in the new chargers etc.

"Effective supercharging rate" was nowhere in his claim.

Incidentally, your earlier contention that "adding cars faster than expansion" was probelematic and your comment about "effective rate" don't necessarily correlate. See Erlang distributions

It is indeed puffery.

Only if you ignore what was actually said.

 

[Beltsbear]

Right now Supercharge.info shows 137 locations in permiting and 61 under construction, almost all of which are on either the East or West coasts, with virtually none in the middle. That's far more than I've ever seen it previously typically there's been 30-40 under construction and 40-60 in permitting. In addition there are upgrades to existing locations that don't show. Now I'm personally annoyed that there is almost nothing planned for the North-South routes in the central states, but saying that Tesla isn't upping the number of Supercharger installations just isn't true. Of course, more and faster is what everyone wants.

Can we stop with this? "Tesla isn't upping the number of supercharging installations". It is obvious I never said that. Construction is the only thing that matters. Permits have been opened and closed for locations near me. Some in permit stage for a year then closed with no replacement. Tesla is building new locations, but it just keeps up with the number of new vehicles out there. That is not "massive"

Go to supercharge.info. Pick map. Select construction only. Does not look 'massive' to me, except in California and New Jersey. 35 states have one or zero superchargers under construction.

 

[hobbes]

Tesla plans for two different cell types in Giga Berlin

The information a source from the Giga Berlin plant leaked to me is credible

The article contains 2 pictures from inside Giga Berlin and information not known yet

https://www.patreon.com/posts/tesla-giga-start-52584506

Wow, interesting. I guess that would mean they produce 4680s/structural packs and until they have that process up to speed, they have another line producing Ys with imported 2170s?