Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

With the barrage of EV share worldwide...I almost wish $TSLA would go down even more so that i can buy more at lower levels. The SP movement makes 0 sense....until you factor in the Solar City lawsuit throw up, Plaid S catching on fire by itself, Demand problem, China issues, FUD.....

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Targeting $740c for 7/30 @ $4.20, down from $6.80 earlier this week, because I love cocaine short term call options.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

All relevant info is highlighted, FUD for CT starting....Bullish signal that everyone is scared sh1tless.

Opinion: Tesla's Cybertruck Will Be Company's First Flop

Tesla’s Cybertruck is in the news again, thanks to some (on paper) comparisons between it and the Rivian R1T and news about a deal with Samsung for cameras for the truck.I’ve been thinking this for quite some time — since the unveiling, really — and the more I see the truck in the news, the more...

www.thetruthaboutcars.com

 

[TheTalkingMule]

With the barrage of EV share worldwide...I almost wish $TSLA would go down even more so that i can buy more at lower levels. The SP movement makes 0 sense....until you factor in the Solar City lawsuit throw up, Plaid S catching on fire by itself, Demand problem, China issues, FUD.....

I'm rolling my 2023 sold calls out further to collect more premium I can slowly funnel into LEAPs before Labor Day. There's just a few contracts and at deep strikes I actually want to pare my holdings a bit.

Watching Bloomberg coverage of the EU climate plan yesterday and reading the global goings-on documented here, there's no chance Tesla isn't supply constrained on cells/packs/car/energy products for the next 10 years(let alone 5). Given their ability to expand and innovate faster than anyone else, that's ~50% avg growth per year at an absolute minimum over the next 10 years.

Most people, even most folks here, are STILL dramatically underestimating the Energy business and Tesla's role. It'll become clear in 3 years then we begin the march from $1.5T to $15T. Imagine being the Apple of global transportation and energy. Yikes.

 

[AZRI11]

TSLA needs to bounce off 648. If it closes below, we might see 590's tomorrow. Don't go by me, i know nothing. This is what the stock channel on YouTube said yesterday.

 

[Nocturnal]

All relevant info is highlighted, FUD for CT starting....Bullish signal that everyone is scared

Opinion: Tesla's Cybertruck Will Be Company's First Flop

Tesla’s Cybertruck is in the news again, thanks to some (on paper) comparisons between it and the Rivian R1T and news about a deal with Samsung for cameras for the truck.I’ve been thinking this for quite some time — since the unveiling, really — and the more I see the truck in the news, the more...

www.thetruthaboutcars.com

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Could be he any more transparent? "I asked a girl out and she said no? Well, she was ugly anyway."

Love the bit about the assembled media and PR folks not liking it, while he was at Spago on an OEM's dime. Maybe get out of your bubble of paid shills. That said, if Ford wants to buy me dinner at Spago I'll say something nice about their EV150.

 

[insaneoctane]

One company spends money on the product. The other on records.

I know which one I'd invest in.

Well Tesla spent money on the Plaid MS and got both.

 

[goinfraftw]

All relevant info is highlighted, FUD for CT starting....Bullish signal that everyone is scared

Opinion: Tesla's Cybertruck Will Be Company's First Flop

Tesla’s Cybertruck is in the news again, thanks to some (on paper) comparisons between it and the Rivian R1T and news about a deal with Samsung for cameras for the truck.I’ve been thinking this for quite some time — since the unveiling, really — and the more I see the truck in the news, the more...

www.thetruthaboutcars.com

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If the Model X can tow an airplane, what can a Cybertruck tow?

The Cybertruck's Towing Capacity is Less Than Initially Promised

The Cybertruck towing capacity is 3,000 pounds less than Tesla originally promised. Does it matter & how does it compare to other EV trucks?

tractionlife.com

I tried to look for what's 14,000 pounds (7 tons):

7 tons | The Measure of Things

www.themeasureofthings.com

• 1 T-Rex
• 3 Rhinoceros
• 4 Cars
• 9.5 Cows
• 12 Grizzly Bears
• 14 Grand Pianos
• 15 Horses
• 85 Beer Kegs
• 500 Gold Bars

 

[Krugerrand]

Exactly why TSLA manips could be "justified" in some circles (not here), and why I don't think we will ever get an extension of EV credits for Tesla... but maybe the others will somehow. Collapse of the big 1, 2, or 3 would be an economic chain reaction - a crisis unto its own should it come too quickly. But if you're an environmentalist, you don't really care about people, only the planet. So there's the rub because if big auto brings down the whole economy, TSLA stocks will follow it down.

We all know (here) that trying to hurt the stock does nothing to Tesla growth at this point. But giving an EV credit to Tesla would kill others that much faster. It's potentially too much shock for an economy. Am I saying this is justified... maybe some dampening in a big-picture way, but also maybe we've had too much already.

Just imagine the wealth gap increase in such an event? Blue collar, whether partially at fault or not, will be seriously unemployed with some retirements pulled out from under. I wonder how many Americans are actually in auto/supplier/part/service/distribution positions. Maybe it's not big enough to cause the shock I mention. I'm (slightly) concerned and I bet the Feds looks at this in trying to regulate the temperature of the economy. But if we don't transition quickly, we also lose out to global competition.

On the other hand, 911 planet's on fire, just rip off the bandaid. I only wonder what a post ICE recovery looks like. What does the US export or produce (not that the big 3 were always here anyway). This may sound like the classic cry that the robots are taking our jobs, but auto could trigger the robot story. Heck, some even say AI day will introduce a Tesla Robot Division (speculation but maybe someday). Our economy is not well positioned to absorb this change so fast.

My neighbor works for Ford. They have no idea what's coming (maybe true for all of us), but I did manage to convince him to buy TSLA, ha! He never once tried to get me into Ford stocks and we talk money everyday. He now has interest in Solar and Tesla products, but I think his plans were cut short with the fall of BTC.

No. Blue collar will simply transition to new industries. It happens all the time. With destruction comes creation.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

If the Model X can tow an airplane, what can a Cybertruck tow?

The Cybertruck's Towing Capacity is Less Than Initially Promised

The Cybertruck towing capacity is 3,000 pounds less than Tesla originally promised. Does it matter & how does it compare to other EV trucks?

tractionlife.com

I tried to look for what's 14,000 pounds (7 tons):

7 tons | The Measure of Things

www.themeasureofthings.com

• 1 T-Rex
• 3 Rhinoceros
• 4 Cars
• 9.5 Cows
• 12 Grizzly Bears
• 14 Grand Pianos
• 15 Horses
• 85 Beer Kegs
• 500 Gold Bars

So about 70 Gordos.....

 

[Words of HABIT]

By now many have seen this graph from JPR007:-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1415118660587311104

The valley of death (or unmet demand) always made perfect sense to me, people decide they next car is an EV, before global production ramps to supply the natural demand.. so supply lags demand... according his graph - from 2018-2039.

I don't agree with one aspect of this graph. Autos peaked in 2017 and I don't see this level being reached again for quite some time, if at all. Kids these days do not rush out on their 16th birthday to get their drivers license which was the norm before smart phones. Cars have become very expensive and together with ride sharing programs available and upcoming robotaxi, and many cycle/walk to work or take public transit. The car is much less of a status symbol (a right of passage) than it was 20 to 30 years ago. I hope I am right, as doubling global annual vehicle sales from now to 2034 and then increasing another 25% from 2035 to 2040 is not sustainable from a resource perspective, even if they are all BEVs. This is not what the world needs. Less is more. UN projects Global population will increase only 12% from now until 2040 which supports a much lower annual vehicle sales than this 220,000,000 projection. General Motors needs to hire a new consulting agency for future sales estimates.

 

[Causalien]

I'm giving Ford zero credit myself. They decided that the way to market their EVs was to harass and troll Tesla owners on Twitter. They don't care about EVs at all, they are just desperately trying to stay solvent and relevant.

It's a classic example of some out of touch C-suite types deciding that they can get some street cred "on the Twitter" by starting arguments. Pissing off the world's largest group of EV owners by doing that is not wise marketing IMO.

I've been involved with 3 major events (including Tesla) that involves correctly predicting the future trend as well as turning the society upside down. By now I have enough experience to conclude that this brings you a lot of hate (I still have some PTSD from all the jabs dished out by "It's just a flu" ppl). I honestly don't understand why, I can only try to guess that when said too early, before the society is ready, it sounds outrageous and smug. (If any psychologist is here, I'd like to hear what you think).

Vs predicting what will happen to something that won't change the society like future movement of banking sectors where I am pretty much met with silence cause nobody cares.

 

[thx1139]

All relevant info is highlighted, FUD for CT starting....Bullish signal that everyone is scared sh1tless.

Opinion: Tesla's Cybertruck Will Be Company's First Flop

Tesla’s Cybertruck is in the news again, thanks to some (on paper) comparisons between it and the Rivian R1T and news about a deal with Samsung for cameras for the truck.I’ve been thinking this for quite some time — since the unveiling, really — and the more I see the truck in the news, the more...

www.thetruthaboutcars.com

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What a lousy opinion. Not because it is negative toward the Cybertruck, but because it has no reasons other then the look was weird in his opinion. Psst a little secret about pickup trucks in general IMHO they are all ugly.

 

[insaneoctane]

Ridiculously, it wasn't even 27 hours straight.

They stopped to charge twice along the way: Ford Mustang Mach-E sets Guinness World Record for EV efficiency



So the distance they drove was somewhat arbitrary, and probably designed to mislead folks into thinking they did 840 miles without charging.

Funny how that’s a ”world record” with charging TWICE along the way when….

Tesla Model 3 drives 606 miles on a single charge in hypermiling record​

or

Italian Tesla drivers set distance record after driving Model S 670 miles on a single charge​

 

[Artful Dodger]

One company spends money on the product. The other on records.

I know which one I'd invest in.

Forguiness don't remember Bjorn... 2 years ago!

Tesla Model 3 Breaks EV Distance Record In 24-Hour Run ...​

https://insideevs.com › ... › News › Range / Efficiency​

​

YouTuber Bjørn Nyland and his team managed to drive 1728 miles (2871 km) ... Tesla Model 3 Breaks EV Distance Record In 24-Hour Run: Video ... How long would he charge the Model 3 before going for another run?​

Jul. 8, 2019​

Cheers!

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Are there any Teslas on the road today which can charge at 300 kW? Or is the SC V3 upgrade from 250 kW to 300 kW for future revisions of the current models?

 

[insaneoctane]

I don't agree with one aspect of this graph. Autos peaked in 2017 and I don't see this level being reached again for quite some time, if at all. Kids these days do not rush out on their 16th birthday to get their drivers license which was the norm before smart phones. Cars have become very expensive and together with ride sharing programs available and upcoming robotaxi, and many cycle/walk to work or take public transit. The car is much less of a status symbol (a right of passage) than it was 20 to 30 years ago. I hope I am right, as doubling global annual vehicle sales from now to 2034 and then increasing another 25% from 2035 to 2040 is not sustainable from a resource perspective, even if they are all BEVs. This is not what the world needs. Less is more. UN projects Global population will increase only 12% from now until 2040 which supports a much lower annual vehicle sales than this 220,000,000 projection. General Motors needs to hire a new consulting agency for future sales estimates.

View attachment 684758

That demand curve is totally bogus *IF* a viable robotaxi model arrives in the next decade or so since vehicle duty cycle will spike, cost per mile will dive which will significantly upset the vehicle ownership model for many.

 

[StealthP3D]

The effective price goes down or margins increase. Either of those are good things. Tesla won't be production constrained forever. Also consider the odds that more people will opt for FSD with a credit, which will save lives and speed up the progress of autonomy. Edit, it would also mean a higher mix of performance models. Tesla shareholders will be very happy to sell more of them vs dual motors for example.

Good points. There are some real advantages to the tax credits, I just think the money could be better spent elsewhere. Like everything in this world, it's a matter of being efficient with our financial resources. IMO, we are way beyond needing tax credits to encourage the transition to EV's, what we need is better infrastructure to maximize the benefits of the transition and to accelerate it. Tax credits have already served their role in jumpstarting the transition, they are not an efficient use of resources any longer. But lobbyists lobby for them and tax credits will happen because they get paid to grub for money.

If you are focusing on Tesla selling every car they make regardless, then how would infrastructure help that?

I'm not focusing on Tesla selling every car they make - it's just a relevant fact. Better infrastructure is essential to fulfilling Tesla's mission and, for me, it's not about the money. As long as I have enough to live a fulfilling life, that's all that matters to me. You cannot take a single dime with you and it's more important to leave our offspring a planet that's habitable than a bunch of fiat money. Or gold. Or cryptocurrency. Those things are all abstract tools to a greater goal, even gold because it is not useful (except in small amounts) to making our lives better. What is useful is leaving the infrastructure, both political and physical, that leads to a better way to live. That's the legacy we leave to the children and what Tesla is working on. Every generation tries to do this, some are more successful than others.

I have a dim view of people that think money is one of the most important things in life. Money is just a tool that helps it all happen, hopefully in an orderly and just fashion. Tesla would do at least as well if the tax credits were diverted to the energy side of the equation. When society succeeds, Tesla succeeds, not the other way around. Society is much bigger than Tesla.

 

[RobsJester]

If the Model X can tow an airplane, what can a Cybertruck tow?

The Model X can tow a lot more than an airplane.

 

[Hock1]

It is a bit risky to hold short-term options over earnings release. There is usually a drop in IV post earnings and a sell-the-news dynamic. But who knows? We expect Tesla to beat analyst estimates and that could be just the spark we’ve needed for the next rally. Your mileage may vary.

How about this for a short-term options risk: Now that Tesla is profitable and is the 6th largest public company, by market cap, in the U.S., is it not possible that TSLA may join the Dow 30 at the end of this quarter? If this were in the works, we may have a clue very soon. As evidenced by the spread between the highest and lowest Dow companies' stock prices (roughly $100-400) and the fact that AAPL split its stock 7 for 1 in order to be included in the Dow in 2015, entering the index at less than $100 (iirc), TSLA, more than likely would have to effect a similar stock split before the end of September.
As most of us know, TSLA will almost certainly have a proposal for an additional authorization of stock in this year's shareholder meeting proxy. Time is getting short. Let's assume an authorization will be approved. IMO, the split would have to completed by September 23. ( Because of the fiasco caused by the naked shorts being delinquent in their delivering a four share dividend after the last split, I have added a 7 day cushion before end of month.
Okay, working backwards, distribution date is 9/23; let's say record date is 10 days prior, 9/13; announcement of split (at annual meeting), let's say another 10 days earlier, 9/3; proxies have to be mailed no later than 30 days before annual meeting, 8/4. Preliminary proxy has to be filed at least 10 days prior to issuance of Final Proxy, July 25.

Caveat: I have presented this scenario to make a point that TSLA might be being considered for inclusion in Dow 30 for end of September. I made up the time frames for notice of split to record date and, record date to distribution date (i.e, 10 days) each, because they seem reasonable. Please, anyone who wants to attempt to be more precise, please have at it. I am only attempting to convey that, if this scenario is happening, we are going to know soon. Just saying, I wouldn't be taking the risk of this NOT happening. But, then again, I don't recommend options at any time.