Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

But the extra profit from those models isn’t necessary. That’s the whole point. The resources; engineering manpower at the top of the list, can be better spent accelerating the mission via other projects. S & X are now fluff. The mission is more important than the margins. That’s the whole point.

Tesla doesn’t need to rub anymore salt against Mercedes or BMW or whomever. Those companies are already in decline and on their way out if and until they get their heads out of the Boston cream pie.

Once again people, even forward thinking people, want to cling to the familiar.

Wait for it. I’m calling it and currently I’m on a real run of correct calls.

I rarely disagree with you but you are missing some key points:-

1. S/X and Roadster will establish that EVs are clearly superior to ICE, helping sell all models.
2. S/X and Roadster are the perfect platforms to try new parts.
3. The business is profitable and is a good use of Fremont and the Fremont workforce.
4. S/X and Roadster don't necessarily slow progress in other areas as they help recruit engineers. *1

Things like Plaid drive, and perhaps some other parts and innovations in the new Model S, might eventually find their way into lower priced high volume models.

S/X and Roadster mean Tesla doesn't need to drive the cost of a new part down to low numbers before they can use it in cars...

*1 While having the best high end products does consume some engineering talent:-

1. Learnings from those products can be later used in mass market products.
2. I believe these products inspire and excite young engineers, helping them to decide they want a career at Tesla.

 

[MP3Mike]

You only need a few percent of roof area skylighted to effectively daylight a space. The cost of the workers' productivity, over the life of the factory, will vastly exceed the cost of the building. TSLA should be optimizing for that where they can.

You are still making the assumption that the skylights would benefit any employees. They certainly wouldn't benefit the night time crews. And it doesn't reduce, or eliminate, the need for artificial lighting installs.

You will notice that on one side they have put windows on the second and third floor, but not the fourth floor. (The fourth floor may not be occupied by employees.) And on the other side only the second floor has windows.

We don't have the facts to know if putting skylights in would be of more value than the ability to install more solar.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Regarding J.D. Power 2021 China New Energy Vehicle Initial Quality Study released today. Tesla's ranking falls to 3rd in midsize BEV, falling behind BYD's Han BEV and Xpeng's P7. Could be part of why TSLA fell today. J.D. Power sells their information direct to auto manufacturers, and since Tesla does not buy their type of information for promotional purposes it may be possible for information to be skewed to those who pay up? Also as there is a lag from their survey to publication it is possible that the majority of concerns for Tesla vehicles have already been addressed if survey were to be taken today.

Tesla drops down the rankings to ‘below average quality’ in mainland auto survey as Chinese EV makers move up
Tesla has dropped to ‘below average quality’ while three leading Chinese electric vehicle start-ups are now making ‘top-quality cars’ in their respective segments, according to a new survey, ratcheting up pressure on the global leader in the world’s…
Read in South China Morning Post: Tesla drops down the rankings to ‘below average quality’ in mainland auto survey as Chinese EV makers move up — South China Morning Post

 

[InTheShadows]

Right, because Northern VA is the center of the Universe, is immune to climate change, and dictates world trends.

I said by the end of the decade. NINE bloody years. I suggested there won’t be such a market, so no need to worry about surrendering such.

People went on and on and on about Model S refresh for quite literally YEARS. Tesla dragged their feet like a petulant child and even when they did decide to do the refresh they’ve been months behind AND CANCELLED arguably ‘the’ variant all those Northern Virginians wanted.

Do you think the stall and subsequent lateness was an accident? That they suddenly forgot lessons learned from previous vehicles launched? Let me suggest that they had more important places to put their resources in the same way they almost entirely shut down Tesla Solar to get Model 3 launched. That more pressing concerns within and outside of the company exist.

And just where is the refreshed Model X. Will we be waiting until 2022 for it to show up after a full year of non-production. Or has a birdie told you it’s coming out next week? Be sure to get that question up voted on Say for Monday.

What’s utterly moronic is when one can’t see past the end of their nose because the box they’ve put themselves in doesn’t have a light.

Go for it.

That’s a long time in Tesla time. Nine years ago the luckiest of us were getting the first Model S deliveries! 4.2 seconds was so dang fast back then! I totally agree with you.

 

[Drumheller]

Reddit thread claiming all model S deliveries are currently on hold. Speculation in the thread but sparse details.

 

[jerry33]

I’m going to argue that the cachet of the S/X is needed for just a bit longer, and hence why Tesla ultimately decided to refresh even though the profits aren’t needed and engineering resources are better diverted to other projects.

Electrification still needs that aspirational element to it. If Tesla suddenly stops having options for the celebs/influencers/wealthy, then the allure of the vehicles suddenly becomes less for a significant part of the population. This does matter. S/X keeps other brands from sneaking into hearts/minds. I’d argue without them, 3/Y will start to feel a little like Prius/Rav4 - the practical, common, obvious choice that is unlinked to anything aspirational.

I really don't get why the hate on the S and X. They sell the 3 and Y. There has always been a market for a larger car for a variety of reasons (in North America and other countries with lots of space). Their additional profit margin makes the financials look better.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Assuming it's good, and I expect it to be. Previous roll out of features were less than amazing but seems like this time they are taking it very seriously.

James Locke just published a video of his 10+ min FSD trip to the mall. This is the first time I have ever seen the AI demonstrate near-human levels of judgement, when it cancelled a lane-change in progress due to traffic queued in that lane. Same decision a professional driver would make in those circumstances (about half-way into the vid).

This is some real impressive driving skills.

Model 3 - Beta FSD V9 - Drive to the Apple Store Valencia - 2021.4.18.12 - 22 July 2021

Cheers!

 

[buttershrimp]

Not really true on skylights, there are plenty of ways to allow in natural light and be highly insulative - not only does it meet their mission it would have a beneficial effect on worker productivity to be exposed to daylight deep in the recesses of a factory.

Hard to explain unless you go out there, there is a lot of natural light, and the row of windows facing downtown Austin is very neat…. The factory is like two “H”s next to each other and it’s pretty clever…

 

[gabeincal]

Reddit thread claiming all model S deliveries are currently on hold. Speculation in the thread but sparse details.

This is what I found:

A massive nationwide delivery hold on all new refreshed Model S (Plaid and LR) has been going on for more than one week now. Numerous customers have been reporting this, including myself, whose cars have been sitting at the delivery center for more than two weeks now. (Soon to be) my car arrived at the delivery center about two weeks ago and was supposed to be delivered on 7/19/21 but got a call from the delivery team right AFTER the delivery was supposed to happen that it's been put on hold.

All we know so far is that the Fremont engineering team has told the all the delivery centers nationwide to not deliver these cars to the customers and to wait for more instructions. My local delivery team has no clue as to what the issue is, software or hardware, or how serious it is. I'm thinking it has to be a huge issue for them to put a pause on ALL Model S delivery....

Link to thread:

National-wide Delivery Hold on All Refreshed Model S (Plaid and LR)!

 

[jerry33]

You are still making the assumption that the skylights would benefit any employees. They certainly wouldn't benefit the night time crews. And it doesn't reduce, or eliminate, the need for artificial lighting installs.

You will notice that on one side they have put windows on the second and third floor, but not the fourth floor. (The fourth floor may not be occupied by employees.) And on the other side only the second floor has windows.

We don't have the facts to know if putting skylights in would be of more value than the ability to install more solar.

Factory roofs are flat. Skylights are a big leak issue at best. (Worked in a warehouse type office with them--some days were swamp city.) Also they give either too much lighting or not enough.

 

[Singuy]

This is what I found:



Link to thread:

National-wide Delivery Hold on All Refreshed Model S (Plaid and LR)!

More information, seems like they have increased some kind of inspection standard which is getting resolved shortly.

https://imgur.com/a/tISL63E

 

[lafrisbee]

The maxpain graph I can see tonight makes it seem as if the MM's really will shoot for $649.99. The calls and puts at $650 are right on top of each other with the calls having more volume. This is as tight as I can remember. Couple that with low volume trading all week and what is going to happen tomorrow will be entertaining. As will any change at opening in maxpain.

 

[juanmedina]

Marques review is out:

 

[ninpb]

Model 3 and Y LR just went up in price as I was ordering by +$990.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Model 3 and Y LR went just went up in price as I was ordering by +$990.

I'm gonna be soooooo interested to see margins on the Q3 and Q4 earnings reports. The many Q2 price hikes will show up on the Q3 earnings and the new 3/Y/S price hikes from the past 1-2 months will show up on Q4 earnings. Some may not agree with my thoughts on these price hikes are not entirely material cost driven (maybe like 25-30% of the price hike has to do with material cost increase), but we'll find out on the Q3/Q4 earnings

 

[Xd85]

Model 3 and Y LR went just went up in price as I was ordering by +$990.

But no delivery date for LR Y. Hope it’s a website bug or something. My folks shouldn’t have pandered this long

 

[Singuy]

Model 3 and Y LR went just went up in price as I was ordering by +$990.

Is it finally priced higher than slightly used 3/Ys yet? LoL. The time we live in.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Marques review is out:

His initial impression is exactly what I expected with the yoke steering. A nice feature to have but some adaptation required with muscle memory that could leave to human driving mistakes during that adaptation period.

can’t wait for his full review to see if he will come back on his decision on preferring to drive a Taycan if they had the supercharging network.

 

[Cattledog]

Hard to explain unless you go out there, there is a lot of natural light, and the row of windows facing downtown Austin is very neat…. The factory is like two “H”s next to each other and it’s pretty clever… View attachment 687079

This is the investor thread, so I won't belabor it, but here's a last set of thoughts. Windows provide several things: views, daylight, opportunity for natural ventilation, sometimes doors to patios or decks. Tesla won't use the ventilation. For daylight, generally you can bring effective daylight into a building 30'-35' from the south with proper lightshelves and ceiling planes, and 20'-25' on the east, west and north (harder to control on the east and west). We like to say 'a skinny building is a healthy building' because it easily admits all these biophilic aspects. A really wide building like a Gigafactory requires toplighting to introduce daylight into the middle of the structure because there's so little penetration from the perimeter.

On the earlier comment on how much solar would you be giving up to introduce skylights, the answer is very little. Somewhere around 3% of the roof area + 1% would be the optimal skylight area to effectively daylight the whole floor plate underneath it. Its value in worker productivity would really dwarf the energy output of keeping those solar panels.

I'm not trying to be argumentative, but I am an architect and our firm has won the most awards for environmental sustainability in the US over the last 20 years. The environmental engineers in our office who run our softwares and do post-occupancy verifications really know their stuff, which I am parroting back here. Tesla should be doing these things in Austin, Berlin, Shanghai and every future factory, but they seem to have a different focus when it comes to the sustainability of architecture vs. autos. It doesn't make me want to sell my investment or my Teslas, it's simply a missed opportunity.

Let's hope for a share price rise into earnings...

 

[Chunky Jr.]

According to Sawyer Merritt, the cargo space on both Y and 3 have been increased by 8 cubic feet. No explanation how this was achieved