Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nolimits]

I got a ride in a plaid last night. The car is just beautiful, really feels like the next evolution for Tesla. Interior and build quality are excellent. The speed though...I've never experienced anything remotely like that. Launching my P3 is pretty relaxing, by contrast the plaid in launch mode hurts and was legit scary.

Investment thesis confirmed. Are we sure Elon's Dad didn't find a crashed alien spaceship in that emerald mine?

And we were all worried / butthurt when plaid+ was cancelled.

Plaid is an incredible machinery. Can’t wait to see what they will do with the Roadster and CT trimotor.

 

[AimStellar]

 

[elasalle]

View attachment 698111

AI day is in everybody's head

IIRC last round of FSD FUD also had some senators asking for further investigations - not sure if these are the same dudes

 

[Christine69420]

I'm in the Gary Black camp here. People are stupid. Once they make up their minds it's really hard to change them. Some small investment in maintenance of the brand would be prudent. Selling every car they can make today is not relevant.

I agree with you. IMHO most journalists are lazy. The fact that Tesla published ie. safety graphs and info some weeks ago does not matter when they get a fresh press release full of FUD. The easiest way to make an article is to publish the FUD. Then they can go out for a beer. Life is great!

If Tesla had a PR person making a press release reiterating the good safety of Tesla cars then the lazy journalist may include that too in his article.

Most journalists are lazy. Then you have a few in the pockets of Big Fossil. They will not care about Tesla PR so it will not help. But the lazy majority it will. You also have a few journalists who think for themselves and will not publish the FUD since they get that it is wrong. This group don't need to be hand held by Tesla PR. But again - the lazy majority need help.

Tesla will sell all their cars either way. But IMHO not to fight the FUD do hurt Tesla's mission. Tesla is THE halo brand for electric vehicles. So the FUD also hurt the transition to sustainable energy since it affect the view people have of EVs in general. Some of my friends are definitely swayed away from buying e-trons and into fossil Audis thanks to this mess.

 

[lascavarian]

And we were all worried / butthurt when plaid+ was cancelled.

Plaid is an incredible machinery. Can’t wait to see what they will do with the Roadster and CT trimotor.

There is a history of introducing new technology in premium products. Eventually a version of that tech appears in more mass market products. A modified carbon sleeve motor that extends performance of Y & 3 may be a possibility if the carbon sleeve tech can be mass produced at an acceptable cost.

 

[WarpedOne]

Some small investment in maintenance of the brand would be prudent. Selling every car they can make today is not relevant.

Tesla Model S Plaid is a small investment in maintenance of the brand.

 

[Tslynk67]

Time for another round of cc702.50’s?

Wrong thread, Jim!

But as it happens, I put a sell order in for cc705's, don't have 702's in my option chain

 

[Tslynk67]

I agree with you. IMHO most journalists are lazy. The fact that Tesla published ie. safety graphs and info some weeks ago does not matter when they get a fresh press release full of FUD. The easiest way to make an article is to publish the FUD. Then they can go out for a beer. Life is great!

If Tesla had a PR person making a press release reiterating the good safety of Tesla cars then the lazy journalist may include that too in his article.

Most journalists are lazy. Then you have a few in the pockets of Big Fossil. They will not care about Tesla PR so it will not help. But the lazy majority it will. You also have a few journalists who think for themselves and will not publish the FUD since they get that it is wrong. This group don't need to be hand held by Tesla PR. But again - the lazy majority need help.

Tesla will sell all their cars either way. But IMHO not to fight the FUD do hurt Tesla's mission. Tesla is THE halo brand for electric vehicles. So the FUD also hurt the transition to sustainable energy since it affect the view people have of EVs in general. Some of my friends are definitely swayed away from buying e-trons and into fossil Audis thanks to this mess.

Indeed, Tesla have a website where they sued to publish blog posts, use it. Tesla have an IR webpage, use it. Tesla have a Twitter account, use it

Would literally take a junior member of staff a couple of hours to put something out there on Twitter, I don't get it - no need to refute, just state facts

 

[elasalle]

I'm in the Gary Black camp here. People are stupid. Once they make up their minds it's really hard to change them. Some small investment in maintenance of the brand would be prudent. Selling every car they can make today is not relevant.

Tesla is already fighting back in China.

So this might have to do with supply and demand. Once Austin comes online I think finally US will have local capacity that will exceed local demand - after which we will start seeing Tesla being more proactive here as well.

Just a matter of time ....

 

[thx1139]

I'm in the Gary Black camp here. People are stupid. Once they make up their minds it's really hard to change them. Some small investment in maintenance of the brand would be prudent. Selling every car they can make today is not relevant.

I am as well. Sure Tesla is selling every car they can make now. Couple years from now we are looking for new consumers. Remember we want upwards of 2M new sales in 2022 and 5M in 2025. A year or so from now we dont want someone to say well I would get a Tesla, but I heard they have issues with fires and they like to crash into things. I will go with a X. Dont want to allow the competition and Q to establish Tesla image in any way. Now impossible to stop it all, yet Tesla can at least get its voice heard outside of twitter.

 

[thx1139]

Tesla is already fighting back in China.

So this might have to do with supply and demand. Once Austin comes online I think finally US will have local capacity that will exceed local demand - after which we will start seeing Tesla being more proactive here as well.

Just a matter of time ....

Wouldnt it be prudent to get to those potential buyers now? Rather then let the narrative be set by the media and TSLAQ?

 

[traxila]

I agree with you. IMHO most journalists are lazy. The fact that Tesla published ie. safety graphs and info some weeks ago does not matter when they get a fresh press release full of FUD. The easiest way to make an article is to publish the FUD. Then they can go out for a beer. Life is great!

If Tesla had a PR person making a press release reiterating the good safety of Tesla cars then the lazy journalist may include that too in his article.

Most journalists are lazy. Then you have a few in the pockets of Big Fossil. They will not care about Tesla PR so it will not help. But the lazy majority it will. You also have a few journalists who think for themselves and will not publish the FUD since they get that it is wrong. This group don't need to be hand held by Tesla PR. But again - the lazy majority need help.

Tesla will sell all their cars either way. But IMHO not to fight the FUD do hurt Tesla's mission. Tesla is THE halo brand for electric vehicles. So the FUD also hurt the transition to sustainable energy since it affect the view people have of EVs in general. Some of my friends are definitely swayed away from buying e-trons and into fossil Audis thanks to this mess.

The press release has been made:

”In the 1st quarter, we registered one accident for every 4.19 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.05 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 978 thousand miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 484,000 miles.”

No one cares. I do not agree with the lazy journalist argument. These are deliberate omissions for maximum clickbait effect And Tesla damage.

Let’s put in a fudge factor of -30% because Tesla drivers are not representative of the general populace. We have roughly one accident every 700K miles vs every 484K miles for the every car driven by the every person.

The yellow rag known as the NYT had another front page article today about the evil scum that is Tesla. Accidents highlighted include a driver on a phone call who drops his phone and then puts his face into the car floor looking for it. Wasn’t he using a hands free? This is all obviously Tesla’s fault. Another accident highlighted was a drunk driver that fell asleep with autopilot on. I would say Musk is personally responsible for this one due to his cavalier attitude.

I really cannot fault Tesla for not responding to this nonsense. What is the point? Simply makes you sound defensive. Let the courts hash it out. What do you think the cross examinations by Tesla’s counsel might look like? Would either of these drivers dare to take the stand? My guess is these are all money grabs that will be settled because this is how the system works…

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I'll be looking for(and rooting for) a traditional MMD today after a modestly positive open. Will pick up some $720c for Oct 15 if we do.

The MM's have all but assured their hedge fund clients they can but in after Labor Day at the same price as before Memorial Day. Must be nice!

Only suckers pay attention in the summer I guess.

 

[HG Wells]

I am as well. Sure Tesla is selling every car they can make now. Couple years from now we are looking for new consumers. Remember we want upwards of 2M new sales in 2022 and 5M in 2025. A year or so from now we dont want someone to say well I would get a Tesla, but I heard they have issues with fires and they like to crash into things. I will go with a X. Dont want to allow the competition and Q to establish Tesla image in any way. Now impossible to stop it all, yet Tesla can at least get its voice heard outside of twitter.

If they bought a model X, wouldn't that be a good thing ? /S

 

[elasalle]

Wouldnt it be prudent to get to those potential buyers now? Rather then let the narrative be set by the media and TSLAQ?

Tesla has a disdain for media that doesn't treat it fairly. With no demand issues, they think there is no need to.
But some tipping point will come in future .. where egos/judgement will need to be set aside ...

 

[scaesare]

He's been talking about that long before AD, but it's always been aspirational, not what they're actually doing today.

At least as late as the V8.x FSD beta (and in all wide-release code up through today) they were using traditional code for all of that.

ONLY perception was NNs (though it used quite a few of them, not just one, to do that job)

In Elons recent tweet about 9.2 it seems they're finally, starting in 9.2 (and only for the FSDBeta folks), using NNs for something other than JUST perception- specifically

I'm talking current stuff... doesn't make much sense to talk about versions they've already discarded. As of late last year they were already moving away from procedural code for policy:

So they're running non-perception NN for one thing, prediction in one specific line, it's version 1 and only in the city streets beta, and they're not really trusting it's output yet (which makes sense given it's V1)... that's a pretty long way away from using NNs for actual driving policy.

Not yet having the multimodal improvements doesn't mean that they haven't been using a single-mode NN model up to this point.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I think you're right, if a few Fords using crappy cruise, or whatever it's called, had hit a few Firetrucks/Ambulances over a period of time, we'd not have even been aware of it happening.

Or a bunch of Chevy Volts and Hyundai's burning in garages... never even knew those were burning until the recall.

 

[Knightshade]

I'm talking current stuff... doesn't make much sense to talk about versions they've already discarded. As of late last year they were already moving away from procedural code for policy:

View attachment 698121

That isn't policy, it's prediction. Where/when do I think other cars will go. Policy is what YOUR car does with that info, and AFAIK remains 100% traditional code.

And from Elons tweet it seems they finally turned that on- for FSDBeta cars only, just in 9.2.

The wide-release code remains intended only for highways where there's no right-of-way to determine since there's no cross-traffic so they'd have no reason to use it anywhere other than FSDBeta now anyway, which is what Green was talking about there.


Might wanna take further discussion somewhere over here though:

AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD

Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[StealthP3D]

Whilst I agree his statement makes no sense, I think the point he was trying to make is valid. This being that this new level of performance previously reserved for a very few of the uber wealthy, is now available to, if not the average Joe, certainly the doing alright for him/herself Joe. Without a doubt this is going to lead to an increase in deaths as more idiot drivers find ways to do 0-60 in 2 seconds into immovable objects.

Modern life has become so safe that the laws Darwin discovered over a century ago, now have limited opportunity to function as nature intended. I'm shocked I'm still here at all!

Part of me thinks it's irresponsible to just let anyone who wants to buy one, drive off in a Plaid. I'd like to see a mandatory high performance driving course at a racetrack be part of the deal, where you do this first to get a feel for and respect for the sheer power and potential danger of the thing. If you don't display the ability to handle the car properly, you don't get to buy it. (Pretty sure I'm going to cop some flak for that one...)

What's more dangerous on a public street than someone without mad driver skills?

Someone who thinks they have mad driver skills. A high-performance driving school is not going to turn an irresponsible person into a model of responsibility. You cannot teach good judgement. The fact is, more dangerous cars than the Plaid have been sold for similar or less money for decades even if they couldn't come close to the Plaids outright acceleration. The Plaid is actually a very easy car to drive fast. If people don't realize that driving fast is dangerous, a driving class is not going to teach them that. It's always taken good judgement to avoid becoming a statistic and the Plaid doesn't move that needle. Those without good judgement will crash the Plaid just as they have with a long list of cars that people bought to go faster than they aught in any given situation. The main problem is not a lack of driver skills, it's the judgement of the nut behind the wheel.

The Model S Plaid is actually much less dangerous in the hands of an unskilled driver than a Porsche 930 or a Toyota MR2, both cars helped the principles Darwin discovered function as nature intended.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

It is war out there. This was just posted on my brokerage website. W is up with IG posting this?

players.brightcove.net/2830693144001/8d914a8e-0772-4b65-b040-afb00fc98328_default/index.html?videoId=6268441227001

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Moderator: please always provide a clue about what a link will show, in this case an interview with Mark B.S. (Spiegel). And make sure there is a working link, like this link to the interview (this can be done through the 'ínsert link'-button in the menu).
And clean up your language - no excuse for such writing.