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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Whatever one thinks about Doug DeMuro and his opinions, he had a glowing review of the Plaid that has been viewed more than 600K times in under 24 hours, plus who knows how many of his 4+M subscribers saw the title that the Plaid is the "world's fastest (and coolest) sedan". All those people will believe Doug over any FUD they might hear.

I'm kind of torn about how Tesla should respond to it. On one hand, we see that Tesla China aggressively combats it. On the other hand. in the US, it seems to be largely ignored. Perhaps Tesla plans its response to FUD based on how sticky they think it is. In China, they must view it as a huge problem, but in the US, they must feel that it is just a fly buzzing around a horse and combating it may amplify it and alert people to it who might otherwise never heard it. The number of people who watch CNBC, know who Michael Burry is, or follow any of the Tesla critics on Twitter is pretty small compared to the number of people who consume positive Tesla info on YouTube or hear great things about Tesla from people they know who have one.
 
Los Angeles, California--(Newsfile Corp. - August 18, 2021) - The Schall Law Firm, a national shareholder rights litigation firm, announces that it is investigating claims on behalf of investors of Tesla, Inc. ("Tesla" or "the Company") (NASDAQ: TLSA) for violations of the securities laws.

The investigation focuses on whether the Company issued false and/or misleading statements and/or failed to disclose information pertinent to investors. The NHTSA opened an investigation into Tesla's Autopilot system as reported by multiple media outlets on August 16, 2021.

I can't keep doing this on my own.. with these.. "people".
 
And we were all worried / butthurt when plaid+ was cancelled.

Plaid is an incredible machinery. Can’t wait to see what they will do with the Roadster and CT trimotor.

I must have missed that. All I saw were the usual hand-wringers claiming the sky was falling. Most people realized Plaid + mattered very little in the bigger picture.
 
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Whatever one thinks about Doug DeMuro and his opinions, he had a glowing review of the Plaid that has been viewed more than 600K times in under 24 hours, plus who knows how many of his 4+M subscribers saw the title that the Plaid is the "world's fastest (and coolest) sedan". All those people will believe Doug over any FUD they might hear.

I'm kind of torn about how Tesla should respond to it. On one hand, we see that Tesla China aggressively combats it. On the other hand. in the US, it seems to be largely ignored. Perhaps Tesla plans its response to FUD based on how sticky they think it is. In China, they must view it as a huge problem, but in the US, they must feel that it is just a fly buzzing around a horse and combating it may amplify it and alert people to it who might otherwise never heard it. The number of people who watch CNBC, know who Michael Burry is, or follow any of the Tesla critics on Twitter is pretty small compared to the number of people who consume positive Tesla info on YouTube or hear great things about Tesla from people they know who have one.
I believe it's more that in China the media is neutral, in other places the media is biased against Tesla. Any fighting Tesla does in the U.S. (and some other countries) will be spun as lies.
 
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Whatever one thinks about Doug DeMuro and his opinions, he had a glowing review of the Plaid that has been viewed more than 600K times in under 24 hours, plus who knows how many of his 4+M subscribers saw the title that the Plaid is the "world's fastest (and coolest) sedan". All those people will believe Doug over any FUD they might hear.

I'm kind of torn about how Tesla should respond to it. On one hand, we see that Tesla China aggressively combats it. On the other hand. in the US, it seems to be largely ignored. Perhaps Tesla plans its response to FUD based on how sticky they think it is. In China, they must view it as a huge problem, but in the US, they must feel that it is just a fly buzzing around a horse and combating it may amplify it and alert people to it who might otherwise never heard it. The number of people who watch CNBC, know who Michael Burry is, or follow any of the Tesla critics on Twitter is pretty small compared to the number of people who consume positive Tesla info on YouTube or hear great things about Tesla from people they know who have one.

I also watched the Doug Demuro Review of Plaid and it was fine and accurate. If you have watched any of Doug’s video’s you know his style and he praised Plaid more than almost any car he has reviewed. Did he say some silly stuff about how people who aren’t experienced should not be driving this car, for sure, but overall, you could not ask for a better review. And, his Doug Score was TOPS of all other cars he has reviewed except for the McLaren F1. Not sure how anyone else could watch his review and feel different.

On another note, I was talking with a friend yesterday who is a CFP and knows stocks and I was telling him that I thought TSLA, based on @accountant and others on this forum as well as Cathie Wood,who have done the forward numbers, could be a $2000-$3000 stock in 4-6 years based on these projections.

He stated that those projections are crazy and that TSLA would have a market cap in the $3Trillion dollar range and there would be no other car manufacturers in the market. Not happening. When I explained that Energy and Solar and FSD would be part of those projections, he stated that we have seen TSLA’s high of $900 and don’t expect more because the “competition” is coming not only in automotive but every other segment they are in. After some more debate and him
Adamant that I am too much of a fanboy and don’t know the financials, I changed the subject.

your thoughts?? And, do you think that we are really not looking at the whole picture and maybe not realizing that TSLA’s market cap and stock price has already seen its best days?
 
Those senators want people to investigate Tesla on their self-driving claims? Fine. Tesla has NEVER claimed these cars will drive themselves in their current state. It's always been clear as day to anyone who can read English. An investigation will only reveal that consumers are morons, just like the senators who are calling for such an investigation.
 
Tesla has a disdain for media that doesn't treat it fairly. With no demand issues, they think there is no need to.
But some tipping point will come in future .. where egos/judgement will need to be set aside ...
Understood, but the best way to push back the media is to push back at the media. Not ignore it. I still dont believe Elon has made any sort of comment about the NHTSA investigation. The media is not going away. It will cause concern with some purchasers. My sister brought up fires before she ordered. She had me to explain things. Not every possible purchaser has people like us to explain things.

I also think Tesla should be reaching out to people once they enter the ecosystem. For instance my sister has a Y on order. She wont take delivery until November. Tesla should be sending her emails with information about AP and FSD. Include links to videos. Tell people to watch these so they understand the capabilities. Send links to videos to explain how the car works differently. Invite them to download the Tesla app and put order status in the app. Dont wait until the car is delivered for it to become useful. Have it push training and informational videos as well. Always good to sell to your customers. Hell even let people make referrals before they even take delivery.
 
Pretty sure my plaid review is causing this bump.
I also watched the Doug Demuro Review of Plaid and it was fine and accurate. If you have watched any of Doug’s video’s you know his style and he praised Plaid more than almost any car he has reviewed. Did he say some silly stuff about how people who aren’t experienced should not be driving this car, for sure, but overall, you could not ask for a better review.
We can call that FUD or whatever but it's certainly true. If you don't have a lot of experience driving very fast cars I don't think you should be driving one of these. Fortunately that's not a problem because if you want a Plaid you have no doubt had that experience.
 
your thoughts?? And, do you think that we are really not looking at the whole picture and maybe not realizing that TSLA’s market cap and stock price has already seen its best days?

personally, i think anyone who claims Tesla should be valued purely as a car maker are as misguided as someone who considers Apple a handset manufacturer and should be valued accordingly.

there's no way TSLA has seen its best days. I think they will be like Apple in that they won't necessarily sell the most cars, but will make most of the money. Plus they will have all the subscription revenue. Then add on top of that Tesla Energy, autonomy, and whatever else they are doing we don't know about.
 
Pretty sure my plaid review is causing this bump.

We can call that FUD or whatever but it's certainly true. If you don't have a lot of experience driving very fast cars I don't think you should be driving one of these. Fortunately that's not a problem because if you want a Plaid you have no doubt had that experience.
One of the nice things about Tesla cars (including Plaid) is that they are not a handful to drive in a parking lot the way a high powered ICE vehicle would be. You don't have to drive them fast.
 
.FSD/Autopilot is not Autopilot - once this is resolved, I think it will be final nail in coffin.
Hahahaha...

you underestimate the creativity.
Some things off the top of my head here in europe:
- tesla uses too much water and risks drinking water in brandenburg (although the coal-plant next door uses 70x the water)
- once synthetic fuels are ready then diesel will have a comeback anyway
- all that energy demand destabelizes the grid (it doesn't)!!1! Better use hydrogen where it is made at energy peaks!!1! (though this has proven to be not viable & horrendously expensive)..
- tesla is playing catch-up with the big guys and does not sell many cars - the others outsell them easily!
- tesla uses their customers as guinea-pigs without asking them!! (.. i wish .. i want FSD-beta soo badly right now..)
- ....

all that to the additional "dangerous"-thing in the US where just the headlines get translated & people believe it!
 
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I also watched the Doug Demuro Review of Plaid and it was fine and accurate. If you have watched any of Doug’s video’s you know his style and he praised Plaid more than almost any car he has reviewed. Did he say some silly stuff about how people who aren’t experienced should not be driving this car, for sure, but overall, you could not ask for a better review. And, his Doug Score was TOPS of all other cars he has reviewed except for the McLaren F1. Not sure how anyone else could watch his review and feel different.

On another note, I was talking with a friend yesterday who is a CFP and knows stocks and I was telling him that I thought TSLA, based on @accountant and others on this forum as well as Cathie Wood,who have done the forward numbers, could be a $2000-$3000 stock in 4-6 years based on these projections.

He stated that those projections are crazy and that TSLA would have a market cap in the $3Trillion dollar range and there would be no other car manufacturers in the market. Not happening. When I explained that Energy and Solar and FSD would be part of those projections, he stated that we have seen TSLA’s high of $900 and don’t expect more because the “competition” is coming not only in automotive but every other segment they are in. After some more debate and him
Adamant that I am too much of a fanboy and don’t know the financials, I changed the subject.

your thoughts?? And, do you think that we are really not looking at the whole picture and maybe not realizing that TSLA’s market cap and stock price has already seen its best days?

Why don't you use cold hard facts/data with him?

Since you referenced the Accountant.....why not take a screenshot of Accountant's modeling out for the next 5 years.....then go over the Q2 earnings with your friend...the gross margins, the operational margin, and the EPS. It doesn't take a math whiz to simply take the Q2 numbers and project out Tesla's future earnings at different production levels....even without any further increase in margins or factoring in any FSD/Robotaxi.

Some key questions to pose to your friend who would then have to confront their bias -

- How come Tesla's operational margin is 2-3X Ford/GM's at only a 200k/quarter rate?

- Tesla did over a 1.5 billion in profit in Q2 on 200k sales......Ford couldn't even reach operational profit (feel free to point out to your friend that Ford's entire 1 billion profit was "Other Revenue" )

- Go through earnings over the past year and ask him to explain if he knows why Tesla's profits/earnings are growing exponentially faster than their revenue. Does he understand why?

- Feel free to point out that right now half of Tesla's production is coming from probably the most expensive location to manufacture in the world (Fremont CA).

- When Tesla gets to 2-2.5 million annual production rate, their hardware margins and operational margin will be comparable to Apple's (before Apply heavily moved into software but even still, Apple was value at 1.5 trillion before software became a big addition to their profits)

- At that 2-2.5 million annual production rate using just the current margins and operational leverage (which is dumb for the sake of this I'll just use Q2's), Tesla's operational margins will go from 2-3X Ford/GM's to in the range of 5-6X.......again without factoring in Tesla recognizing the other half of the deferred FSD revenue and no Robotaxi

- Ask him if he understands why legacy auto's P/E multiples and Price to Sales ratio are so low.........if you have the time go through legacy auto's previous year of earnings......if you really want to rub it in, go through legacy auto's previous 5 years of sales, earnings, growth......

Point is......people love to use the auto maker comparison. Use facts against them, not just general or broad facts......use specific cold hard facts and data. I'm gonna guess he wants to change the subject very quickly ;)

(If you can't tell, I've dealt with plenty of friends/acquaintances that think they're stock/financial pro's....some of them even are and I LOVE rubbing the facts/data in their faces)
 
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.....................These are deliberate omissions for maximum clickbait effect And Tesla damage.
Great post @traxilia . The 'deliberate omissions' that have been made for clickbait effect AND Tesla damage go all the way up to-and including the snubbing of Tesla at the White House, and of course the complete omission of anything Tesla in the response from DOT Secretary Pete Buttigieg when he was directly questioned about Tesla by CNBC. If Pete had not taken that moment to put his personal political career ahead of the future of the Planet we all live on, Pete could of - and should of provided a response that at least referenced the success of Tesla. But he must have been under strict orders because he didn't even mention the name of the company in his response. He worked hard to phrase his response to avoid saying it. He knows how to say 'Tesla' out loud. He owns one. He knows the truth about the safety and efficiency of Tesla. He drives one. The very fact that this administration is willing to publicly snub Tesla, and that some of their most qualified individuals to provide any support to the Planet's most successful sustainable transportation and energy business continue to side-step direct questions about Tesla without even mentioning the name out loud are an overwhelming confirmation that there would be no support for Tesla all the way up to the White House to take on these smear campaigns in a very public - and very expensive manner by Tesla. Neither side of the aisle will ever 'Drain the Swamp'. They are the Swamp.

Thus I fully support Elon's philosophy of 'keep your head down and continue to do what's right for the people and for the Planet'. Spend every dollar on advancing the mission instead of fighting greed and corruption. While the others spend their monies and effort funding a fight against Tesla, Tesla continues to move further past them.

Having spent my entire career working to preserve our Resources (Energy, Water, Fish & Wildlife), the full-blown, head-on smear campaign against Tesla has been extremely disheartening to me over the years. But when that effort was publicly displayed by President and White House staff over the last few weeks while our Planet is literally on fire and record high temperatures are being set around the globe, my heart filled with anger instead of that sadness having watched a complete failure to embrace the fight of Climate Change at the highest levels. And I am sure at least a million other Tesla owners, and a large majority of the 59.2 million followers of Elon Musk on Twitter were filled with a similar anger at the snubbing of the person and the company that is doing more than any other to help save this planet. That number of people is greater than any number of people that might fully put their faith in a NYT opinion piece at this point in time. So those smearing efforts weren't lost on the truly informed. In fact, the public beat-down that this administration has given Tesla is probably better free advertising to encourage anyone interested in saving the Planet to go buy every Tesla product ASAP than any PR campaign money could buy. Those that are smearing FUD are now surviving only by the old adage - that it is easier to fool someone than it is to convince them that they have been fooled. Thank you White House staff and UAW and others by doing the real heavy lifting - helping convince people that they had been previously fooled, and that they were fooled by Fools.

P.S. - Did anyone notice we are back above and comfortably sitting on the 2-year trendline after creating double-bottomed support. That is a Huge Double Bottom (pun intended) from a technical perspective.
 
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Since we are mostly Tesla investors, some of us are SpaceX investors and almost all of us are enthusiasts about Mr. Elon Musk there are a couple of serious points we must understand, in my opinion:
First, anything at all that attracts enormous enthusiasm also attracts opposition, normally almost as enthusiastic.
Second, any new technology attracts enthusiastic support and opposition.
Those two characteristics have been with the human race for a very long time. Examining some examples might help us to avoid our preferred conspiracy theses:
One famous cases was the heliocentric findings:
The Horseless carriage had opposition:
the-horseless-carriage-means-troublele.html
Then the telephone (the dial version):

The lists go on. From my childhood I recall religious leaders, among them my father, insisted that Televison was a work of evil and must be prohibited. He and most of the others changed their views once they could view things of which they approved.

Now we are faced with the multiple threats of electric vehicles, solar and wind power, plus vehicles that can nearly drive themselves and buying those infernal amities via the Internet. We really do not need conspiracies to explain the opposition, nor do we need conspiracies to explain vaccine opposition.

Bluntly, much of the world tries desperately to avoid progress. Trains, automobiles, planes, and on have had such resistance.
Those tend to be called 'conservative' but that word might be better applied to efforts to conserve the planet Earth for future generations. 'Reactionary' is more nearly accurate.

All of us, including me, tend to attribute opposition to Gas and oil companies, coal producers, labor unions.gasoline station operators and automobile dealers,ICE drivers. Those are all true, but they cannot explain the resistance.

Even aircraft automation had violent opposition. The Boeing people viciously attacked the Airbus people because the latter had automation (Fly by wire(FBW)-first in the Airbus A320) , so skilled pilots could not 'save the day'. Then Boeing capitulated with the B777 but kept hydraulic backup, and finally the B787 went all the way with FBW.

The investigations and regulatory impediments have always tried to stop improved technologies. Both Tesla and SpaceX are glaring examples of how rapidly the world is changing. Since the Luddites opposed spinning and weaving machines:

As always the biggest risk is the fear of being left behind. That is positioned in many different ways.

Now we have in BEV, automation of driving and reusable rockets the proof positive that Elon Musk and his companies are upsetting the status quoins need to be STOPPED!

Once we all understand that we can go about helping the people who value technological progress to adopt new technology as quickly as possible.

Just remember that the opposition is all about fear of change from a not-ever-existing perfect world. Those people become self-selecting for extinction, from disease, refusal to accept medical advances, and lack of education. Those factors do not in any way lessen their resolve to oppose progress.

How to make progress more rapid is the crucial issue. In the meantime lack of clean fresh water, floods, draught glacial and permafrost melting, viral and bacteria outbreaks accentuate the income disparities and educational failings. We must learn how to avoid histrionics but still accelerate the pace of adaptation.

All of this is the real threat to our investments and more.
 
Btw.....everyone can thank me ;) Yesterday right at the end of the day I sold a few of my March 2022 950 Calls and just ate the loss on them.

(Note I did it entirely because I went very heavy into LEAPS on the dip the day after Q2 earnings that I feel extremely bullish on and will pay off in a big way. So therefore I needed a bit of a cash and also needed to offset some gains from earlier this year tax-wise)