Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Rarity]

From what Steve Hill said this week, it sound like most of the cost of stations is avoiding any existing subsurface construction. "...those ramps that come from the tunnel back up to the stations have to come through everything that's been built. So we have to know exactly what's there, we have to design that system to allow the tunnels and the ramps to miss everything that's down there or know that we have to move some things that are down there. Then they have to put all that in drawings and submit it to the building department and then work through all those plans with the building department."

In less densely constructed areas, I expect it'll be a lot simpler and less expensive to just make a ramp up into a parking lot and add the new lines and canopy and stuff.

If the underground LVCC Loop station was about $40million as Steve Hill said, and the project price was $48 million, that suggests the price of the parking lot stations were pretty cheap at LVCC.

I'm nodding my head in agreement, although it's important to note that what it cost to build the LVCC system may be more than the project price. TBC could have built it at a loss.

 

[jw934]

Based on the closing price of $909.68, and fully diluted share count of 1,123,000 in the Q3 Update, Tesla just crossed the threshold and became a Trillion dollar company

 

[Dutchie]

My whole portfolio is red today - except for TSLA. Thankfully my portfolio is about 80% TSLA so I ended green today.

 

[MC3OZ]

Even beyond this investment forum, our cult in general is sleeping on the Boring Company. A few years ago I personally thought it was a bad idea and Elon had finally put out a dud. Mainstream public perception is even worse--most believe this system is dangerous, wastefully expensive, bad for the environment, a publicity stunt, only meant for elites, and low capacity. To me this feels like the EV industry in 2010 all over again, with the truth drowned out by a flood of misinformation, misunderstanding and lies.

The rapid construction this decade of Loop systems in Las Vegas and then probably South Florida, two of America's two most popular travel destinations, with nascent Loops blooming in several other cities, will be a major awakening.

Already, per Steve Davis, several hundred thousand people have ridden in the LVCC Loop. Statistically speaking, we know that for the majority of those riders this was their first experience in a Tesla. No doubt this is already contributing a non-negligible amount to the explosion of American and Canadian demand for Teslas we've witnessed since the summer.

I want a future with cities quiet enough to hear the birds singing, where impediments to walking and cycling are removed, and where children can play in many of the old streets formerly filled with traffic. I want to address a significant root cause of the developed world's obesity and cancer crisis. I want to stop routing highways and arterial roads through disadvantaged communities. I want to solve traffic once and for all.

I also think that there is a good chance TBM (Tunnel Boring Machines) are eventually made in a factory with a reasonably fast production rate.

• 1 TBM per week?
• 10 TBMs per week?
• 100 TBMs per week?

One TBM size or perhaps 3 sizes, with smaller sizes sold to those undergrounding utilities. Underground HVDC being one application. Mineral exploration mapping an underground seam is another application.

Will the Boring co eventually own

• 5-10 TBMs?
• 50-100 TBMs?
• 500-1000 TBMs?

If machines can operate with minimal supporting staff a large number can be working on muiltiple projects in parallel world wide.

It is hard to know how big Boring co can get, but a factory making TBMs at least at the rate on 1 per week always seemed likely to me.

 

[Lessmog]

You picked up the ball! Now let's see if all the others will break it back to the non TSLA/Tesla moment that resulted in them being Teslanaires today... If she'd have never gone to summer camp, so if someone didn't suggest it, like her best friend was going so she begged to go...
But come on people think...what was the non-stock non Tesla thing that tripped you into the Teslasphere.
It is the week end. Time to come clean. There had to be something Butterfly wingish that led you to TSLA besides the car.

As I may have reported before, it was a blog by security guru Bruce Schneier concerning data leaks and the watchful eye of modern automobiles, after that maligned full-splash hit job in NYT by one John Broder (whose name came to be a word for permanently bricking electronics) was masterfully rebuffed by one Elon Musk, complete with figures and diagrams proving Broder was a lying hack. (Probably still is; but promoted in rank.) NYT later gave a kind of apology but does not seem to have changed policy much.

At the time I had no idea who these people were but the forcefulness of Elon's argument impressed and I wanted to know more. A month later he claimed that Tesla would not be posting a loss for that quarter. Turned out to be true, so I managed to buy a few shares just before they really burst out. That would have been Spring 2013, at about $10.25 split adjusted. Much water under bridges since, but it's been a profitable journey for me, and changed my prospect fundamentally. Other factors also contributed. Luck is good. Do have some!

 

[Dutchie]

What a crazy day.
my dad passed away this morning after 6 months of recurring gastric cancer.
my anesthesiologist was day trading PHUN while I was doing rotator cuff repairs and trapezectomies, he bought 50k and sold with 500k profit in one day. He bought in November, sold at $18, bought back at 6 and sold at 12 for a 550k profit on his TFSA, all this while doing perfect regional blocks for my patients. I didn’t even know it was possible for a stock to do +1200% in a single day.View attachment 724415

and TSLA closed above $900 even with a call wall at $900.

what is going on? The world is upside down.

at least I have next week off to recover.

Sorry to hear about your dad. Money and high stock prices are nice but family is much more important. Hope you find the strength to recover from this loss.

 

[canoemore]

For me it was less of a butterfly moment and more years of anxiety and depression about environmental sustainability, and doing as much research and analysis as possible to try to figure out what the real solution was to the hydrocarbon fuel problem amidst all the noise and misinformation. The closest thing to a butterfly moment for me was my roommate leaving a copy of the Ashlee Vance biography on the living room floor. Or it was arbitrarily deciding to move to Seattle in 2015, and seeing Teslas everywhere.

Suffice it to say, every analytical road I followed implied that a fix was coming quickly, and that it would come primarily from Tesla. This was not the result I was expecting, nor the fact that I observed that almost no one in a position of authority or wealth seemed to have reached the same conclusion. I had naively thought that high-status adults were smarter than that. To win big in capitalism, one must have a belief about the future that is deeply contrarian, yet correct. So I started dabbling in TSLA. Then, seeing the endless stream of BS in 2018 and 2019 and especially watching stuffy suits losing their minds over Elon puffing a joint like a noob and assembling cars in a tent, I couldn't take it anymore and abandoned my index-fund-only strategy to dump the majority of my life savings into TSLA shares.

Now here we are.

That is exactly the same path I took.

 

[MC3OZ]

OMG! You’re all making this more difficult. I’ll stick to long math to figure out how many duffel bags I’m going to need.

I can save you the trouble, the answer is 3 light years.

 

[woodisgood]

You picked up the ball! Now let's see if all the others will break it back to the non TSLA/Tesla moment that resulted in them being Teslanaires today... If she'd have never gone to summer camp, so if someone didn't suggest it, like her best friend was going so she begged to go...
But come on people think...what was the non-stock non Tesla thing that tripped you into the Teslasphere.
It is the week end. Time to come clean. There had to be something Butterfly wingish that led you to TSLA besides the car.

It's wild, and I think about it everyday.

We were going to buy a commute car for my wife. The car she was driving had just been totaled, and we needed something economical and weren't financially positioned at the time to purchase a luxury vehicle. We were targeting a used Prius - at least temporarily. Since we hadn't rushed to get on the Model 3 waitlist and it was just ramping, that wasn't an immediate option, even though we figured it would probably be the next car we purchased new, maybe in a few years.

We went to many used lots. The process was frustrating, as everyone knows. Many weekends were wasted in search of the right vehicle, dragging our 2yo along. The butterfly, though, was an elderly salesman at a Toyota dealership. We sat down to negotiate on a vehicle and from the get-go he was rather rude and insulting. Possibly something about our demographics bothered him but I can't be sure. Either way, what I do know is his behavior managed to piss my wife off something epic. Her face was cherry-red and she was ranting and raving on her way out of the dealership. It was quite the scene. He managed to get under her skin in a way that I've never seen and I honestly suspect, if there is such a thing as angels that attempt to alter human decision-making a la Adjustment Bureau, he was one of them.

We went home dejected and frustrated, and just for sh-ts and giggles I decided to do some math on TCO. I presented it to her and we both said, y'know what, F it, let's order a Model 3. We got the car within weeks....not really sure how or why because all the VIN and waitlist data on the forums suggested that wouldn't be the case for many months. And the rest is history. If we hadn't gotten the car when we got it and how we got it, I don't think I'd have found my way [soon enough] into the investment.

 

[Paul_SF]

You picked up the ball! Now let's see if all the others will break it back to the non TSLA/Tesla moment that resulted in them being Teslanaires today... If she'd have never gone to summer camp, so if someone didn't suggest it, like her best friend was going so she begged to go...
But come on people think...what was the non-stock non Tesla thing that tripped you into the Teslasphere.
It is the week end. Time to come clean. There had to be something Butterfly wingish that led you to TSLA besides the car.

Elon, of course.

 

[jhm]

I disagree. @jhm came up with the blind faith price targets circa 2015 when Elon’s stock comp plan was put into effect. We used to dream of lofty price valuations based on his milestones and jhm’s calculations back then.

Blind Faith Price Targets

Many people have asked to have a thread devoted to Blind Faith Price Targets. So here's kicking it off. Prior discussion of the methodology and BFPT updates occur at the following location. Going forward I hope to keep all updates and discussion in this thread. The original idea roughly...

teslamotorsclub.com

Ha! My original LTPT was $3739.82 (very precise!!!) before 5:1 split, or $747.96 in today's number of shares. Some more bullish than I were suggesting an even $5000 or $1000 in today's number of shares. This target was for the end of 2025. None of us would have seriously though that these targets could get hit by the end of 2021, four years early!

We had faith, even blind faith, but we had not the vision for what lay ahead. Even so, many of us did find the blind faith approach encouraging to help us keep accumulating shares when the market was full unbelievers and infidels.

But to be fair to our younger selves, that LTPT was based on generating $350B in revenue and $35B in net income (10% profit margin), which along with a PE ratio of 20 would strike a market cap of $700B. Alas over the TTM, revenue has been $47B, net income $3.5B, and profit margin 7.4% (GAAP). So we see that the vision of bounteous revenue and earnings is still some years off. Indeed at a mere 50% annual growth rate, it would take another 5 years to set foot in the promised land of $350B revenue. But we do not lose heart! Others in the market have take up the faith as well and blessed the market cap with an abundant PE ratio.

Our faith is still blind, but many more have come to believe as we have. Together we press on to the prize ahead, that Tesla's earnings might rain down abundantly some $35B by 2025!

 

[CHGolferJim]

Thank you for your sacrifice.

I’m starting to understand why some of you are looking into buying mountains. If only I had understood the Tesla mission in the early 2010’s I’d be looking too.

Still happy I test drove a Tesla in late 2019 and started buying TSLA aftermarket that day. The product really sells itself.

Interesting to hear Gary Black say the same thing. Dave Lee must have been thinking to himself “I got in x years earlier and made y millions more than Gary did.”

 

[MC3OZ]

Did I miss something on LFP?

I see it as a Tesla purchased item in a non-4680 format.

Is this view incorrect?

License fees to manufacture LFP worldwide expire in 7 months.

IMO no reason why LFP can't be made in 4680 format.
The Chinese use prismatic to overcome volumetric energy density, but a 4680 structural pack is fairly tightly packed. Enengy density doesn't matter much for energy storage.

 

[jhm]

Congrats to all longs esp the ones that rage bought all throughout the dips....Take your spouse out tonight and show him/her just how much you love them! I am even letting mine 'super size' only for tonight!

Ooh, the Waffle House is gone be busy to nite!

 

[Buckminster]

Teslarati - today: Tesla China’s launches new massive Delivery Center with Grand Opening Ceremony

Excerpt:

Because of Giga Shanghai’s increased manufacturing rates and the imminent start of production at Tesla’s European factory, Giga Berlin, the automaker can now begin to focus on making cars for Chinese customers in China instead of splitting the production output between the Chinese and European markets. As demand for Tesla’s vehicles continues to rise in China, the company is opening more service centers and delivery hubs for customers to come to pick up their cars. Now that exporting vehicles to Europe will come to a close soon, Tesla will have their hands full with China’s demand, which has not slowed down since the company delivered its first vehicle in China in early 2020.

So does this mean my MYLR due early 22 (Mar?) will be from Berlin?
and my backup MYP due mid 22 (Jun?) also?

 

[Gigapress]

I also think that there is a good chance TBM (Tunnel Boring Machines) are eventually made in a factory with a reasonably fast production rate.

• 1 TBM per week?
• 10 TBMs per week?
• 100 TBMs per week?

One TBM size or perhaps 3 sizes, with smaller sizes sold to those undergrounding utilities. Underground HVDC being one application. Mineral exploration mapping an underground seam is another application.

Will the Boring co eventually own

• 5-10 TBMs?
• 50-100 TBMs?
• 500-1000 TBMs?

If machines can operate with minimal supporting staff a large number can be working on muiltiple projects in parallel world wide.

It is hard to know how big Boring co can get, but a factory making TBMs at least at the rate on 1 per week always seemed likely to me.

And the implications of this are CraZy
because they're targeting about a 0.7 mile per day boring speed as the "medium-term goal".

There are currently 6.5E7 miles of road on our planet. (Some of these are multilane, but Loop with autonomy will support at least triple typical passenger throughput per lane.) A fleet of 1E4 TBMs each drilling let's say 2E2 miles per year each is 2E6 miles per year. This fleet could match the scale of the legacy road network in just 3E2 years. Revise downward with more machines or faster drilling. The main questions are 1) Could they actually build 10,000 TBMs with a factory for mass production? and 2) Is this scalable in this way where they can truly all be working in parallel? 3) What actually *is* the optimal number of TBMs?

Bibliography

List of countries by road network size - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Prufrock — The Boring Company

www.boringcompany.com

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Requested via Report button to create a new thread and move posts. Thanks for your concurrence, and the original post.

Anyone can create a new thread, doesn’t need to be done by a mod. And after a long evening of ‘Bond, James Bond’ there’s so many pages to sift through that I have no clue what needs to be moved.

 

[ggr]

Based on the closing price of $909.68, and fully diluted share count of 1,123,000 in the Q3 Update, Tesla just crossed the threshold and became a Trillion dollar company


View attachment 724431View attachment 724432

Note that the number on your calculator is just over $1B. That's because the number in the Q3 update is in thousands. But your point remains correct. I'm just a pedant.

 

[MD70]

Same, this place has been life-changing. I'm planning to retire from corporate work in January, and I'm 27.

Wow that’s earlier than mr money moustache.

 

[Christine69420]

My evening:

I must say that ATH, Dave and Rob and Teslaquila makes a perfect evening