Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chunky Jr.]

This is how bulls turn to bears (or even full out TSLAQ). They make a bad call and then instead of owning up to their own mistake and buying back in, they blame their loss on Tesla and start to hate the company. I’ve seen it many times on Twitter and from Youtubers. Humans are funny creatures.

OTOH he raised his price target to $1400 from $1200

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

....or former posters whose names start win "N"...

Man that guy is in the Hall of Fame of worst timed decisions ever. His company in the Hall of Fame is obviously Twitter Greg

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Hold your horses on all those island purchases. Craig Irwin says the stock is headed to $250

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453002670814474241

So performance remaining relatively flat.......Craig sees a PE ratio of about 28 this time next year as a good target. Lol

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I’d be curious to know if anyone else saw that tweet. I didn’t see anything like that, and he’s been bullish all week. If he sold, I’d expect a bunch of people calling him out about it in the comments and I don’t see that at all.

Just scrolled through his twitter feed and in fact it does look like he deleted it. Trust me, I know what I saw and yes on that tweet, there were many people calling him out for it. Looks like he quickly changed his mind and got back into the stock.

 

[82bert]

I’d be curious to know if anyone else saw that tweet. I didn’t see anything like that, and he’s been bullish all week. If he sold, I’d expect a bunch of people calling him out about it in the comments and I don’t see that at all.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453008490348298245

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453013974199459849

If you follow comments under that second tweet, he confirms trimming some of his position at $1080.

He said they “trimmed” some, but have not fully exited. However, he implies they would exit at $1200.

 

[thesmokingman]

Global Foundries is IPO'ing soon, just a heads up they are no TSMC. TSMC is like varsity that went to nationals and GF is like frosh/soph.

 

[30seconds]

Q3 10Q Provides Explanation on Margin Increases

As we suspected, margins improved due to:
- Shanghai ramp in capacity (a more cost effective facility)
- Localized Procurement in China
- Exporting from China rather than Fremont

"The increases were primarily due to favorable changes in sales and production mix of Model 3 and Model Y as Gigafactory Shanghai has ramped in capacity. The average Model 3 and Model Y costs per unit have decreased significantly due to lower material, manufacturing, inbound freight and duty costs from localized procurement and manufacturing in China. Increased sales in Asia and exporting vehicles manufactured in Gigafactory Shanghai instead of the Fremont Factory to other regions have resulted in higher gross margins for both our Model 3 and Model Y product lines."

Great news. Margins may increase further with Berlin since the shipping costs to Europe are eliminated plus next generation front and rear casting production. I'm just coming to the realization that the margins increase for all the factories (including Fremont)

 

[Nocturnal]

Very much true, but in this case, I think Gary was clearly hoping for a strong pullback and was day trading. I just think it's in bad taste to use your twitter account with your followers to try and add to the selling pressure to get in a slightly cheaper share price.

Agreed. It's annoying when I see a bunch of people attack him when he sells. Some retail folks just can't understand that running a fund is different than Yoloing your IRA every week. I disagreed with his decision to sell after the BTC buy, but in hindsight he was right (for the wrong reasons perhaps).

That much of this price jump has been due to calls should be something all bulls pay attention to. I'm not particularly worried as we have PT upgrades and Q4 to backstop us but it's good info.

 

[Curt Renz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453717858584772613

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453730611185606656

While the 274k P/D number isn't shocking to me or most of us here.....I've never heard of the S&P committee getting information on internal forecast from a company that hasn't been publicly stated.......that seems incredibly shady.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Actually, I would also be interested in this topic as well. For my REQUIRED RRIF withdrawals which began when I retired this year, I'm moving shares to a non-registered account, and only selling the minimum # of shares to cover the withholding tax. Yesterday was my first ever sale of TSLA shares that I've been holding with diamond hands since Jan 2016. It was relatively painless when I looked at what they actually cost me almost 6 years ago.

Currently Island shopping, and taking Flying lessons to keep me occupied in the mean time, hoping to soon join the airborne members (@OrthoSurg , @BornToFly, +?) of this community.

I would also like to add my voice to the chorus of Thanks for the invaluable contributions to this forum by so many intelligent, articulate individuals from such a wide range of back-grounds, experience and geographic locations, which gave me the confidence not only to hold through the tough times, but to go all in during the darkest days of early 2019.

Edit to add: 10 years ago, the situation I'm in today was in-fathomable. Thank-you TSLA! Thank-you TMC!

Not yet airborne, one of my friend is an airline pilot and he’s a TSLA paper hand master. He convinced to starting my classes next year, as soon as I have some free time from diminishing my clinical workload and slowing the medico-legal expertises workload. I wanted to pay my line of credit first. He did not convince me to sell my TSLA and would fail trying to do so. Good luck in your projects too!

 

[OrthoSurg]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453724283817975808

Gary once again making himself look silly. Tesla was already the most heavily traded stock out there options-wise except for micro cap stocks. It's not "unsettling" that the volume would go crazy on a big move in the stock

This is what I dislike about Gary. When he sells some shares, he has no problem posting misleading articles/information to try and get himself a lower entry price. He did this same crap back in Q1 when he sold. He immediately started posting bearish articles on Tesla.

I'm rooting for Tesla to continue higher and form a base over 1,100 so Gary has to pony up if he wants the shares he sold back.

I pointed this out to him in Q1, he blocked me. I guess Gary doesn’t like when we outline the obvious to him.

 

[henchman24]

Big runs can get a bit frothy, and by what Wall Street is currently putting out there for the future... this is a bit frothy. Their estimates and projections are not there to support the price Tesla is currently at. The thing is... Wall Street has consistently missed are those same future projections. A clear example is that we are still only seeing a ~$8 eps for 22... where $11-12 is looking like a better bet. In other words, the projections will grow into the valuation. If they don't grow fast enough, there will be a pull back and Gary will end up in a good spot trimming. If they grow quickly, they will fuel more of the run. IMO right now we are seeing price target leapfrog to keep up as analysts are trying to figure out their new models... and that is likely to continue.

 

[CLK350]

Alright - playing the MM's at their own game - Bought 1 Nov 5th 1150 Call @$1675 - let's see if that gamma squeeze for next Monday will work again
Waaaaaayyy better odds than playing the Mega Millions Lottery ; )

The fact that all the trading was concentrated in short-dated options can be viewed as a tactic by some traders trying to take advantage of a phenomenon known as a “gamma squeeze” -- betting that as the value of Tesla shares gets closer to an option’s strike price, dealers will have to buy more and more of the underlying stock.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Great news. Margins may increase further with Berlin since the shipping costs to Europe are eliminated plus next generation front and rear casting production. I'm just coming to the realization that the margins increase for all the factories (including Fremont)

Production in Germany is considerably more expensive than in China. There's no way to overcome that, even with massive logistics savings. HOWEVER, Tesla should make up for that cost increase and then some with incrementally larger subsidies and tax credits rolling in for 2022.

Plus we get the HUGE bonus of Berlin production being truly sustainable, as opposed to just economically convenient in China. (What Elon refers to as "drama free") Folks working at the Berlin factory will be making a global living wage, then go home to a society that provides for things like healthcare and even employment protections. Full circle.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Big runs can get a bit frothy, and by what Wall Street is currently putting out there for the future... this is a bit frothy. Their estimates and projections are not there to support the price Tesla is currently at. The thing is... Wall Street has consistently missed are those same future projections. A clear example is that we are still only seeing a ~$8 eps for 22... where $11-12 is looking like a better bet. In other words, the projections will grow into the valuation. If they don't grow fast enough, there will be a pull back and Gary will end up in a good spot trimming. If they grow quickly, they will fuel more of the run. IMO right now we are seeing price target leapfrog to keep up as analysts are trying to figure out their new models... and that is likely to continue.

From a historical perspective, there hasn't been one moment where 99% of analysts weren't laughably behind on future valuation. Why would today or tomorrow be different? Have these people grown larger brains or changed their perspective/incentive?

 

[jhm]

How long must the stock price orbit $1069.420? I mean, grow up!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Big runs can get a bit frothy, and by what Wall Street is currently putting out there for the future... this is a bit frothy. Their estimates and projections are not there to support the price Tesla is currently at. The thing is... Wall Street has consistently missed are those same future projections. A clear example is that we are still only seeing a ~$8 eps for 22... where $11-12 is looking like a better bet. In other words, the projections will grow into the valuation. If they don't grow fast enough, there will be a pull back and Gary will end up in a good spot trimming. If they grow quickly, they will fuel more of the run. IMO right now we are seeing price target leapfrog to keep up as analysts are trying to figure out their new models... and that is likely to continue.

Everyone should look through the Piper note because, like most of the other bull analyst notes, they're setting themselves up to be "right" now and "surprised to the upside" well into 2022 even though they will be upping their PT pretty much every quarter from now on.

You can see this through their EPS and revenue estimates for the next 6 quarters.

Piper estimates lower EPS of $1.80 for Q4, lower than Q3 even though revenue estimate is 16.5 billion - Earnings beat and another PT raise after Q4 earnings

Piper estimates a drop of EPS AND revenue in Q1 2022 - Revenue and Earnings blowout beat and another BIG PT raise after Q1 earnings

And the cycle repeats itself on their estimates all throughout 2022. Analysts are playing this for the long game now. They want to be able to continually up their PT's while at the same time saying they've been "right" all along and at the same time, that Tesla "surprised" them with revenue/earnings growth

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Very much true, but in this case, I think Gary was clearly hoping for a strong pullback and was day trading. I just think it's in bad taste to use your twitter account with your followers to try and add to the selling pressure to get in a slightly cheaper share price.

Is that even legal? SEC where are you?

 

[henchman24]

From a historical perspective, there hasn't been one moment where 99% of analysts weren't laughably behind on future valuation. Why would today or tomorrow be different? Have these people grown larger brains or changed their perspective/incentive?

It won't be different, but when news stops or has a negative turn... pull backs to normal valuations occur. We saw it all spring of this year and took until summer to correct and move up.

Everyone should look through the Piper note because, like most of the other bull analyst notes, they're setting themselves up to be "right" now and well into 2022 even though they will be upping their PT pretty much every quarter from now on.

You can see this through their EPS and revenue estimates for the next 6 quarters.

Piper estimates lower EPS of $1.80 than Q3 even though revenue estimate is 16.5 billion - Earnings beat and another PT raise after Q4 earnings

Piper estimates a drop of EPS AND revenue in Q1 2022 - Revenue and Earnings blowout beat and another BIG PT raise after Q1 earnings

And the cycle repeats itself on their estimates all throughout 2022. Analysts are playing this for the long game now. They want to be able to continually up their PT's while at the same time saying they've been "right" all along and that Tesla just doing better than they expected.

Oh yeah, they absolutely are building that in and we are seeing more analysts falling to that side of being 'right.' Right now the lower estimates apply a bit of a cap until it can be overrun and by that time they have new news to help push up their estimates.

I personally expect a small pull back sometime in November (from what high I don't have the slightest clue), but by the end of the year into January, we are significantly higher than today.