Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

Obviously good for investors if true, bad for owners. Open serious questions on how tightly privacy safeguards are enforced when someone with access to a tool that shows vitals for any car is so casual about taking and (letting distribute) a screenshot.

Other possibilities:

• It was taken and/or distributed without the knowledge or permission of the person who was accessing that screen.
• Only a summary screen was distributed, not private VIN data. Can you see private data in that screenshot? I cannot.
  
• This was hacked/leaked by a third party.

You again you are taking the extreme worst-case interpretation and are pretending that that's the only possibility - why?

 

[Pras]

Obviously good for investors if true, bad for owners. Open serious questions on how tightly privacy safeguards are enforced when someone with access to a tool that shows vitals for any car is so casual about taking and (letting distribute) a screenshot.

In the world where your phone not only tracks you but spies on your habit, I really am not concerned if they track my car to be asleep or awake.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Regen has a lot/everything to do with the pack temperature.

This is a thermal management technology discussion really. Losing regen changes one peddle driving for the worse. Mitigating loss of regen is a worthy goal separate from range capacity.

If regen could be decoupled from the pack such that regen was became consistent independent of temp, it would be a good thing.

Apparently not for the battery's long term health. Hence, the coupling. For me, long term health is more important then short term range. Your mileage may vary.

Dan

 

[DragonWatch]

Reporting in from hibernation ~ Monday evening my son-in-law poked fun at me by leaking the news that they were putting down 2.5K on a Model Y. Not sure what color yet, but absolutely sure it will not be blue. He hates matching car colors ~ kids
Yesterday, Wednesday, on the way back from Seattle to Olympia we saw a truck and a half of new Tesla’s flying, okay, traveling the speed limit, towards what we assume Seattle delivery points. Wife figured the half truck dropped off in Portland, OR.
Oh yeah, our soon to be nine year old granddaughter, when I mentioned they were getting a Model Y; stated her ranking in school would go up! Kids, got to love em What, her grandparents falcon wings did not put her on the map?
My wife still loves the Model X, and no I will not become the newest X
Life is good, I just have to work a little harder at it than most. Trout season opens next month, guess I'll be giving away all that I catch on this vegan diet.
Those worried about price cuts on the price of newer Tesla’s; I suggest stop playing with your bellybutton and enjoy what you have, while you have it

 

[Fact Checking]

While this is positive on the whole, i get the impression the main agreement is to lobby to stop incentives and pressure to develop fuel cell, gas cars & other lower CO2 alternatives. This means they agree that EVs (still including hybrids) are clearly superior to fuel cells & other technology options, but it doesn't mean they agree EVs are better than ICE or that they are really going to accelerate the transition.

It's an important first step though, the context is that VW threatened to quit their shared lobbying group, the "VDA". The CEOs of VW, BMW and Daimler have now agreed to send to the VDA a new position paper that directs their lobbying efforts. Key points are going to be that:

• fuel cell technologies are dead
• BEVs are the future
• BEVs are the ONLY technology that are able to meet EU emissions standards

I.e. this excludes hybrids too to the best of my knowledge (although hybrids are not explicitly mentioned) - so it's a big step forward.

VW is also demanding for significant new EV incentives for BEVs:

VW will deutliche Änderungen an Kaufprämie für E-Autos - electrive.net​

While the VDA probably won't be lobbying for those incentives, just yet - this new position means they won't be lobbying against it either, which is important.

I.e. the background is that ICE makers want EV incentives from Germany so that they are able to build EVs profitably and are able to weather the ICE->EV transition.

Unless there's some underhanded way to exclude Tesla, those EV incentives should help Tesla too.

 

[Navin]

Truth to this??

 

[winfield100]

Ditto! I can't stop driving my wife's L3MUR. We drove it to Disney World this week, even though the Model S has free SC. The Model 3 is also VERY impressively efficient.

@keydriver
dude, that is an impressive PV array? Kw? micro's? string? islanding?

 

[Carl Raymond]

Does anyone know when Model 3 will be available in England, Japan, South Korea, and Australia/New Zealand?

Musk tweeted this winter for Aust. Assume he meant sth hemisphere winter, so by end August.

 

[ReflexFunds]

It's an important first step though, the context is that VW threatened to quit their shared lobbying group, the "VDA". The CEOs of VW, BMW and Daimler have now agreed to send to the VDA a new position paper that directs their lobbying efforts. Key points are going to be that:

• fuel cell technologies are dead
• BEVs are the future
• BEVs are the ONLY technology that are able to meet EU emissions standards

I.e. this excludes hybrids too to the best of my knowledge (although hybrids are not explicitly mentioned) - so it's a big step forward.

VW is also demanding for significant new EV incentives for BEVs:

VW will deutliche Änderungen an Kaufprämie für E-Autos - electrive.net​

While the VDA probably won't be lobbying for those incentives, just yet - this new position means they won't be lobbying against it either, which is important.

I.e. the background is that ICE makers want EV incentives from Germany so that they are able to build EVs profitably and are able to weather the ICE->EV transition.

Unless there's some underhanded way to exclude Tesla, those EV incentives should help Tesla too.

Funny you should mention that:

VW are still up to their extremely dirty anti health anti environment tricks.

They are lobbying for a EUR5k German EV subsidy to be limited to vehicles less than 4.65 metres in length. For cars longer than this they want the subsidy to be just EUR2k.

This is obviously a completely arbitrary policy created specifically to target Tesla (Model 3 is 4.69 metres). Given Model 3 is the only mass produced affordable EV capable of making a significant dent in pollution deaths and CO2 emissions in the near term, this is VW yet again putting their own financial interests ahead of people's health.

 

[KarenRei]

Yep. New European Model 3 orders now pushed out to April, S+X out to May. Out of European inventory that's not already spoken for

China is still March delivery on the Model 3, so they still have some inventory unspoken for. Not sure how much longer that situation will last

 

[lascavarian]

This is a new one...Ford owners stating their SUVs are making them sick.

Potential exposure to toxic levels of carbon monoxide...complaint count is ~3,000 owners.

Interesting that some owners are using CO detectors. If Detroit had factory installed detectors then they would have data and fewer deaths from CO poisonings.

 

[Fact Checking]

View attachment 388754 Truth to this??

Yeah it's all true: all European Tesla vehicles are sold out for Q1 delivery: European configurator is now showing April delivery for Model 3 and May for S/X.

I suspect there might still be fleet units available in Q1: test drive and show room units, or units where the new owner couldn't take delivery - but these would be highly location dependent.

 

[Fact Checking]

Interesting that some owners are using CO detectors. If Detroit had factory installed detectors then they would have data and fewer deaths from CO poisonings.

Note that it's not just death: CO is very poisonous and can create permanent health damage even in non-lethal concentrations. For example low brain oxygen levels and brief unconsciousness can cause permanent brain damage.

CO knocks out a person in less than a second IIRC (a single breath of high enough concentration is enough), and it's colorless/odorless.

 

[jerry33]

Interesting that some owners are using CO detectors. If Detroit had factory installed detectors then they would have data and fewer deaths from CO poisonings.

That's tricky though because the instructions on household CO detectors say to be sure not to use them around cars. I assume that's because the detection is only good for a few samples before requiring replacement.

 

[Pras]

the JPM analyst recommendation for Put being under priced seems fishy. After that recommendation the stock fell and then it recovered for literally no material news.

Perhaps their options trading desk sold a lot of put in the last two days.

 

[Pras]

IMHO, as a cynic, _look_ at SA's "raisin detre" (sp)
eyeballs to look at the ads on both sides of the articles. no vetting of content, just publish anything like "20 reservations" etc
more eyeballs, = more income.
controversy get eyeballs (plus fractional pennies per click or comment??)
don't jeopardize the income stream
useful content is just an extra it seems

A perfect place for SEC to investigate (assuming after the director gets replaced by an honest person).

 

[Aieukl378]

I think you are correct insofar as there are some specific tweets that have hurt the stock price. Your analysis turns to voodoo when trying to assign values, however. You also don't seem to acknowledge or attempt to quantify the positive effect that Elon's social media presence has had on the stock price. It's Tesla's only form of advertising and it reaches millions of people.

So yeah, some of the tweets have hurt but I suspect the positive has outweighed the negative.

Most(all) stock market analysis is "voodoo". I guess we'll see how this latest SEC fight plays out but could tank TSLA(240ish?).

 

[shlokavica22]

While this is positive on the whole, i get the impression the main agreement is to lobby to stop incentives and pressure to develop fuel cell, gas cars & other lower CO2 alternatives. This means they agree that EVs (still including hybrids) are clearly superior to fuel cells & other technology options, but it doesn't mean they agree EVs are better than ICE or that they are really going to accelerate the transition.

They are fighting for survival. However they have/had different strategies (I guess German based forum members can confirm/deny that).

BMW is/was planning to put heavy accent on PHEVs, which makes sense for them- they extend the live of existing capabilities, negate the effect of battery shortage, helps (I assume) reach CO2 targets.

VW on the other hand can't afford that. They have significantly bigger market and are significantly less flexible. They simply can't reach the tough CO2 targets.

The end game for them is to force the German government for direct/indirect help on their way to EV transition.
From TSLA perspective it's good, because first- it enforces the fact EVs are the future (for the next 10 years at least, and opposite to Toyota's push for Hydrogen cars), and second- it shows the German Legacy Auto won't be able to make the transition on their own.

 

[ggies07]

There's a reason this video has been posted so many times here on TMC, get beyond the first somewhat esoteric minute or so of the video, and you have all of the following from Jim Cramer right there on video,


Jim Cramer late 2007:

"You can't foment, that's a violation, of, of, yeah, you can't create yourself an impression that a stock's down, but you do it anyway, because the SEC doesn't understand it... This is actually just blatantly illegal, but, when you have 6 days and you're company may be in doubt because you're down, I think it's really important to foment if I were one of these guys."

"What's important when you're in that hedge fund mode is to not do anything remotely truthful because the truth is so against your view that it's important to create a new truth, to develop a fiction."

"Who cares about the fundamentals? ...great thing about the market is it has nothing to do with the actual stocks. Now look, over maybe two weeks from now the buyers will come to their senses and realize that everything that they heard is a lie... it's just fiction and fiction and fiction, and, I think it's important for people to recognize that the way that the market really works is to have that nexus of hit the brokerage houses with a series of orders that can push it down, then leak it to the press, um, and then get it on CNBC, that's also very important. And then you have a kind of a vicious cycle down. And it's a pretty good game..."

Aaron Task (interviewer): "Then do you get long...?"

Cramer: "Oh, yeah, because you drove it down. You certainly got to use the other side."

(there's more, I think still worth a listen)



Jim Cramer, yesterday on CNBC (a key vector he highlighted above for spreading falsehoods):

"Elon Musk has "made a fool" of the judge overseeing the settlement case between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Tesla CEO, CNBC's Jim Cramer contended Tuesday.

Musk has backed U.S. District Judge Alison Nathan of the Southern District of New York "into a corner," Cramer said on "Squawk on the Street." "This judge either has to get rid of him or say that the SEC is wrong."

"But Musk has made a fool of Judge Nathan," he added."


Sounds like Jim is trying to foment Judge Alison Nathan becoming misinformed into believing, 1) It's Musk vs. Judge Nathan, not Musk vs. the SEC (he emphatically says multiple times in this the video) 2) Elon Musk has made a fool of her, 3) the Judge has to get rid of Elon or say the SEC is wrong (which he vigorously presents as ridiculous). In the video Jim is fired up, and other comments from Jim: Musk is saying he is above the law, and Mush is saying that Judge Nathan is a joke (or a clown, don't remember which).

Cramer: Musk has 'made a fool' of the judge overseeing SEC settlement case

again, Jim Cramer 2007,

"What's important when you're in that hedge fund mode is to not do anything remotely truthful because the truth is so against your view that it's important to create a new truth, to develop a fiction."

So why don't all of us bombard his twitter account with this YouTube clip and call him out?

 

[SebastianR]

OT: Porsche is ending one of their shifts due to collapsing demand in China:

China-Geschäft eingebrochen: Porsche streicht Nachtschicht im Leipziger Werk - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Wirtschaft

I do think we will see many news about legacy car makers struggling this year. I hope not all gets construed as "recession is coming" but rather "new BEVs on the horizon make ICE buyers wait/reconsider"...