Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

Ok, lawyers among the group, I’m wondering if the SEC is going to go after him for this potentially material tweet:

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Artful Dodger]

Good pics of Semi's cabin, including after lots of wear-and-tear in road testing:

Tesla Semi cockpit details revealed in clearest interior pictures yet

There's apparently a third pedal in there (speculation is that it's a mechanical parking brake).

That's likely a dead pedal. Question is, 'where's the CB radio?'

Cheers!

 

[Radpioneer]

Elon can continue building great cars with high margins and reach a few hundred thousand more people before the year is over.....................................or he could tweet the TRUTH to 23 million people and put some pressure on the SEC before they screw him, all of the TSLA long investors, and the rest of the planet seeking a more sustainable future. I am glad to see Elon stepping up his game. The planet doesn't have forever.

Elon will continue to building great cars with high margins and reach a few hundred thousand more people before the year is over...AND he SHOULD continue to tweet the TRUTH to 23 million people and put some pressure on the SEC before they screw him, all of the TSLA long investors, and the rest of the planet seeking a more sustainable future. I am glad to see Elon stepping up his game. The planet doesn't have forever.

IMHO that is a bit better

 

[Krugerrand]

I love how someone randomly speculates that there will be a refresh coming soon based on the flimsiest of information, and people are already making assumptions on what the theoretical refresh will entail and asking if they can upgrade.

That doesn't mean a refresh isn't coming. But keep your socks on, people. The last report we had, from a month or two ago, was that a refresh team hadn't even formed yet.

I wouldn't be surprised if there was one this summer. Then again, I wouldn't be shocked if there wasn't. If there is one, I wouldn't expect a complete overhaul. IMHO: Interior electronics, most likely. Interior styling, next most likely. Exterior styling, average likelihood. Drive units, average likelihood. Pack architecture, below average likelihood, but possible. Cell type, very unlikely.

I’m actually about to scratch my eyes out if I read one more post about S/X refresh. TWO bloody years I’ve been reading about this refresh ‘any day now’, ‘next month’, ‘just around the corner’.

If Tesla ever does a refresh I’ll be reading hundreds of posts about ‘how so and so called it.’ That’ll put me over the edge for sure.

Hopefully FSD is implemented by then so I can still get to bingo on braille Wednesday afternoons.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I unfortunately started the year on a leverage-increasing strategy toward the Q4 report, predicting (rightly) that Tesla was again going to show a profit and strong cash flow and bust the bear argument that Q3 was a one-time rigged profit. Didn't count on macro-hell, Deepak leaving during the call, the SEC going after Musk for literally repeating what he said in the ER, and everything snowballing into a renewed cycle of short-selling and its associated FUD (aka, any Tesla news whatsoever = "Tesla is doooooomed!!!"). That really, really hurt.

I've been playing it a lot smarter since. Whenever I see a lot of uncertainty and doubt, like we've had recently, I've been selling short-term covered calls... and then when the stock goes down, buying them back and reselling to a lower strike. Also, now that bullish sentiment has started to recoup in advance of deliveries, I've been selling some put spreads. I love the fact that every day that the stock sits here and keeps wobbling - while everyone awaits deliveries and the outcome of the SEC case - everything I sold devalues - and will all be expired or repurchased before the deliveries report and any timeperiod in which the judge could rule on the SEC case.

Nothing is foolproof, of course. I pay for this with the risk of unexpected market news causing a spike beyond where I've capped my upside, or a plunge (both devaluing my assets and costing me money on the PUT spreads... the latter concern me more, so I've kept them to a minimum).

Okay, if we're discussing strategies, here's mine. (No one correct strategy. Depends on level of risk/reward you seek AND what you're comfortable with. Will take time, and likely some losses, to figure this out.)

I have a core share position, along with some Leaps. I never sell calls, as I find it too worrisome. And I don't sell puts either (no need to magnify my risk w/ an already large position).

Then I have a trading strategy: On any major pullback (30 point minimum), I start buying shares (not part of the core position, but to sell later). If the stock drops further, I add Leaps to the trading position (400 strike). And if it continues to drop, I add shorter term calls (but still at least five/six months out, 400 strike). And if it continues to drop I will add even shorter term calls (but never closer than 3 or 4 months). So this is where we are now, though I'm still only buying Aug/Sept calls. I'm mostly filled up on my trading position. I start unloading these shares and calls when the stock moves back up 30-50 points at least. I find I can make at least 2 to 3x profit. And that's good enough for me as a leverage play.

(Have to have considerable patience and discipline (can't get greedy) for this strategy -- if you buy short term calls too soon, and the stock doesn't bounce or continues to fall, the calls decay rapidly, losing 50% or more in value.)

Finally, I have a crazy lotto strategy that has been quite fruitful. TSLA options are relatively expensive, so I don't generally hold puts to insure my account. But come Wed/Thurs of every week, with the weekly option prices rapidly decaying, I buy puts equivalent to cover a portion or all of my position. Anywhere from 2 cents to a dollar (usually 10-30 cents though), depending on technicals, news, other developments, etc. Buying on Thursday is especially good deal, since they expire the next day. I don't spend more than what I can lose, because I fully expect those options to expire worthless.

My initial thinking was you never know what could happen with Tesla, and it's silly not to spend a few cents every week insuring my considerably large holdings, even though it's only good for a day or two. But the thing is that bad (or good) news often comes on a Thursday or Friday. Specifically, 3 times last year bad news hit on a Thursday/Friday (Joe Rogan, SEC suit, can't remember the other one), and then one time this year (the email in January of profit warning, layoffs). The next day, my penny options were worth anywhere from a few bucks to ten dollars or more. I made serious bank on those plays.

I've now expanded this lotto option strategy to also buying calls, because I'm expecting good news to drop also this year, hopefully on a Thursday/Friday. So far I only made money on the puts, with my calls wasted, but fingers crossed.

So yeah, there you go. I'm not an expert or pro, and the above is obviously not investment advice, but just my two cents. GLTA!!

Something I've been trying recently is weekly iron condors. If one of the legs loses money, roll it out / down (or out / up) at a slight loss and/or compensate with additional options so that the net debit is minimal. This will also be balanced out by the profits from the opposite leg which will have expired worthless. Keep doing that until both legs expire worthless, then start over. (As looks to be the case for me this week, in which my maximum gain where both legs expire worthless is between $279.99 and $265.01.) I've only been doing it for three weeks, still getting a feel for it, but I find it appealing thus far.

My spreads are small ($5.00 between the BTO and STO positions), and I pay attention to the time value remaining on ITM options so as when it approaches zero I roll to avoid early exercise -- the biggest risk of the strategy.

Ok, lawyers among the group, I’m wondering if the SEC is going to go after him for this potentially material tweet:

Elon Musk on Twitter

Oh my.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I love how someone randomly speculates that there will be a refresh coming soon based on the flimsiest of information, and people are already making assumptions on what the theoretical refresh will entail and asking if they can upgrade.

That doesn't mean a refresh isn't coming. But keep your socks on, people. The last report we had, from a month or two ago, was that a refresh team hadn't even formed yet.

I wouldn't be surprised if there was one this summer. Then again, I wouldn't be shocked if there wasn't. If there is one, I wouldn't expect a complete overhaul. IMHO: Interior electronics, most likely. Interior styling, next most likely. Exterior styling, average likelihood. Drive units, average likelihood. Pack architecture, below average likelihood, but possible. Cell type, very unlikely.

I’d expect any refresh to come with a charger/pack architecture that can handle the 250kW from v3 Supercharger. S/X are falling behind on that front and that seems unsustainable to me in the long run.

 

[Freder Reeve]

Hopefully FSD is implemented by then so I can still get to bingo on braille Wednesday afternoons.

reminded me of this really nice "branded short"

 

[Paracelsus]

agree @Radpioneer -and thanks for the correction.......you nailed my original intention. I guess I was a little too upset at seeing Elon being baited by CNBC using their biggest chunk of Stink Bait once again (Cramer).

 

[JRP3]

Not sure theres a correlation, but I'm not thrilled at him generally tweeting at the moment. I know the flurry of responses that will greet this sentiment. But I'm as bullish as they come and have been for years.

I'm not even as bullish as they come and I'm thoroughly enjoying his tweets.

 

[Drumheller]

On the topic of cold weather range, some of us with older model s have seen huge impacts. I visited family near Chicago this winter and had to park outside, many nights without a plug. I regularly saw half range when it was below freezing. Below 0F and I say 1/3 range. Not exaggerating

Just because some of you with newer vehicles and model 3s havent seen that doesn't mean some of us with older vehicles aren't telling the truth. The condescending posts are not helpful.

The good news is that Tesla continues to improve and it seems the new cars do better.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Elon will continue to building great cars with high margins and reach a few hundred thousand more people before the year is over...AND he SHOULD continue to tweet the TRUTH to 23 million people and put some pressure on the SEC before they screw him, all of the TSLA long investors, and the rest of the planet seeking a more sustainable future. I am glad to see Elon stepping up his game. The planet doesn't have forever.

IMHO that is a bit better

Exactly, SEC works for us, not the other way around. They don’t get to stand in the way of saving the planet so they can secure jobs with investment banks.

 

[ZsoZso]

Ok, lawyers among the group, I’m wondering if the SEC is going to go after him for this potentially material tweet:

Elon Musk on Twitter

Of course they will. The question is: will they request all of the images in Discovery motion ?

 

[Krugerrand]

This is why me, and many others have been saying that the transition to EVs is going to start with a collapse in ICE sales first.

IMHO, eventually at some point, ICE automobiles will have a depreciation rate that will collapse the current collateralization model for auto loans. People who want to buy new ICE won't be able to, because of this. They'll need much higher down payments, their tradeins wont go nearly as far, and they will be forced to take shorter-term loans because of this increased depreciation rate.

Where can I put an order in for that? Is there a demi-god who looks after this? I’ll volunteer Bob Lutz for sacrifice. I’d like this to happen within the next 24 hours. I’m not afraid of change. I would rather just get it done and over with. Procrastinating is for puppies.

 

[Krugerrand]

If you can't see the rear camera and map at the same time, it isn't good.

Because you would be following the directions of the map in reverse?

 

[jerry33]

Because you would be following the directions of the map in reverse?

No, because the rear camera should be up at all times so you can see the blind spots (in addition to properly set wing mirrors).

 

[Sparky]

Elon will continue to building great cars with high margins and reach a few hundred thousand more people before the year is over...AND he SHOULD continue to tweet the TRUTH to 23 million people and put some pressure on the SEC before they screw him, all of the TSLA long investors, and the rest of the planet seeking a more sustainable future. I am glad to see Elon stepping up his game. The planet doesn't have forever.

IMHO that is a bit better

OT:
At the risk of being inciteful, with full consideration how poorly this might age with SDNY proceedings nigh, I submit this short excerpt from a recent Rolling Stone interview. I think the interviewee (about whom I know next to nothing) provides useful context for us in their thoughtful response. FWIW, I don't begrudge Musk a single syllable of his Twitterings.

"RS: In your ability to galvanize your supporters through social media, you have been compared to Donald Trump.

AOC: Well, I think that there’s this rush to make that comparison, but any time media fundamentally changes, the first movers to recognize that change — and to learn it and to adapt to it — tend to have that first-move advantage. So this is less about personality, less about Trump, and more about who has had the first-mover advantage. But there are similarities. People who succeed in social media follow similar tenets. In order to resonate with people, you have to tell them what you mean, you have to be willing to make mistakes, you have to be willing to be vulnerable and learn as you go."

 

[Krugerrand]

But demand...there is no demand...Tesla has demand problem.

This is all my "news" feed shows....also so words like "cliff" and "wall".

My favorite of all time, will put it on my gravestone....wait for it....






...air pocket.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Of course they will. The question is: will they request all of the images in Discovery motion ?

And will they doctor the “SEC” captions?

 

[Krugerrand]

I have a SP85D that I put snow tires (21 Sotozeroes) and drive it like most who have a 'P' do and I have never exceeded 500, even with a cold battery. ( We do get several/many winter days in Delaware where I see 20 F or below ). I usually 'average' with the winter set on..about 350...In the summer/warmer weather with performance tires...average about 295.

One data point.

Clearly you drive like an old man, while buddy here drives it like he stole it (or he’s making up a fairytale).

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

My favorite of all time, will put it on my gravestone....wait for it....






...air pocket.

at least it is a breathable air pocket