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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
Is there a precedent for shareholders of one company being given access to an IPO stratified based on age of shares? Just wondering.
So true.
Another data point. In about a block and half on our street, call it 20 houses, there are now 13 Teslas. Two Model Ss, 3 Model Ys, eight Model 3s. (It used to be 14 until we sold our first Model 3 last week.) Two households drive two Teslas. At any big intersection in our neighborhood, it's not unusual to see 8 or more Teslas.
Competition? Pfft, there is no competition, at least so far. Sure, we see a Taycan or Mach-E every once in a while, but basically zero presence.
The only thing that is going to derail Tesla from absolutely taking over is they are getting to be too common. I'm a function-over-form kind of guy, so Tesla vehicles are a no-brainer for me. But there are many buyers who want or need to be 'different.' At some point, the plethora of Teslas may impact some of these buyers. I have to admit though that I miss the days in 2018 when our Model 3s would turn heads and kids would point fingers excitedly when we drove by.
As I mentioned in another post, the big loser around here is BMW. BMW 3 and 5 series used to be the go-to for many tech workers here. And BMW SUVs for the soccer moms. These seem to be disappearing as quickly as Teslas are appearing.
Can't be any more complicated than allowing early reservation holders to buy in pre-IPO.
We see Teslas so infrequently around here that my kids (and maybe myself lol) call out every tesla we see. So when I get my Model Y in a few months I will be like you in 2018. I live in a relatively affluent neighborhood but I will be the first to own one.
Give it time. That's how it was in KC for a couple years after I got my 3. Now we don't really count them anymore because you see so many on every drive.
PS, nobody mention the errr thing that's happening right now.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Good to see someone finally lit a 
under the 
that brews up the SP.
I'll take mine with cream and two sugars, please.
(two sugars will make it about 3.5% sweeter)
Note: I'm talking about a "Special Pot" of tea, not the "errr" thing.
under the that brews up the SP.I'll take mine with cream and two sugars, please.
(two sugars will make it about 3.5% sweeter)Note: I'm talking about a "Special Pot" of tea, not the "errr" thing.
LightngMcQueen
Aspirationally Rational
Gali from HypeChange posted interesting video about unspeakable Tesla/ GM situation, what is really interesting is how well it resonates with people:
66K views in less than a day.
I provide link to the channel not directly to the video, because video title contains names what can not be mentioned here any more.
I can not provide more details for similar reasons.
66K views in less than a day.
I provide link to the channel not directly to the video, because video title contains names what can not be mentioned here any more.
I can not provide more details for similar reasons.
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2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
That was a great rant by Gali.
If he had replaced the "n" of the guy's name in his title with a "t" you could then have linked the video, right?
Anyone can call their representative and voice their concerns which is a good idea IMO.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Whenever I drive into Ithaca, an hour south of you and much lower population, I always see a few Teslas and quite often on the more rural roads outside of the city.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Just got to thinking about how tomorrow is Saturday. Weekends are such a bore. 
Next week is going to be worse, there's a dad-gum holiday in it.
I don't care for holidays even more,... ever since buying TSLA.
Next week is going to be worse, there's a dad-gum holiday in it.
I don't care for holidays even more,... ever since buying TSLA.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
This is a common theme I hear repeated, that not everyone wants the same brand of car so Tesla will be stuck at some "normal" market share percentage. And the basic concept about some people valuing individuality enough that they are willing to pay real money or give up real quality or capabilities to achieve "being different' or standing out from the crowd is valid and can be seen in the marketplace. To determine how prevalent it is we can get some clues by looking at the normal mix of cars on the road around the world. Watch any video clip of a busy road and you will see the vast majority of people do not put a high premium on standing out, they just want a car that suits their needs, is reliable and offers a good value. The number of people willing to pay more to stand out is relatively small.
Look to the booming 1920's when everyone wanted a car and Ford sold the most durable and reliable car for the best value. It only came in black but that didn't stop it from reaching 60% market share and the number would have been MUCH higher had Ford been able to expand production even more quickly than they did. You could get other brands in your favorite color, with fancier upholstery and more features, models that didn't look like what everyone else was driving and set you apart from the crowd, but they were not as durable and cost more to buy and operate. For a number of years, more than half the people bought a black Model T.
People have all the same feelings and desires now that they had in the 1920's- because human nature really hasn't changed that much if you look at what drives us. So, I think it's fair to say that the need to be different doesn't prevent a single look or brand from reaching or exceeding 60% of the market. I'm not making the case that Tesla will exceed 60%, simply that the need to be different wouldn't preclude it. This would not be true if cars were commodities and all offered similar functionality and value. When there is a wide variety of functionally identical products at the same price point but with different looks, people will buy whatever suits their fancy. But that is not true with EV's and the gap between Tesla and the other EV's and ICE cars is widening, not shrinking. We can ignore the recent Tesla price increases because the metric that matters is pricing power. Tesla can raise and lower the price at will to ensure they can sell all they make at the highest profit.
Sure, EV's are in short supply now so even manufacturers offering less car for more money will be able to sell them and we get some natural variety that way. But as long as Tesla's production increases faster than the rest and they continue to be able to offer significantly more value, an increasing percentage of the cars on the road will be Tesla (this is true even if Tesla production increases slightly below the average rate due to retiring ICE cars- which include the previous market leaders). It would only be false if Tesla could not offer more car for less money.
And then there is the Cybertruck. That takes whatever market penetration limit there is due to some people's need to be different, and expands it further. Then you have a new, larger color palette coming out of Berlin and Texas and whatever new models are released before the market penetration limit is reached, both of those things will further expand the limit. Basically, no one is projecting a high enough market share for Tesla that the need to be different becomes a significant limiting factor. It's all about value offered and the ability to make them in huge numbers. More than half of all vehicle purchasers are primarily interested in their car as a tool, hopefully a practical one at a good price.
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Added 300 shares today by exercising a few deep in the money options a tad early.
It was 5 call options for Dec10, but sold 1 for some decent profit to gather enough powder to exercise the options. Left one intact just so we can see what happens Dec 9.
Could have waited to Dec 9, but it wouldn't make much difference as options are expiring next day and any increase were unlikely to make up enough for exercising more of them. So took advantage of the profit that goes against some losses I had earlier in the year for out of money calls.
It was 5 call options for Dec10, but sold 1 for some decent profit to gather enough powder to exercise the options. Left one intact just so we can see what happens Dec 9.
Could have waited to Dec 9, but it wouldn't make much difference as options are expiring next day and any increase were unlikely to make up enough for exercising more of them. So took advantage of the profit that goes against some losses I had earlier in the year for out of money calls.
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