It looks like Elon really believes in tunnels to alleviate traffic. Interesting.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
LightngMcQueen
Aspirationally Rational
Well depends on what on the meaning of "help". Long before there was teslamotorsclub.com, there was priuschat.com and thats the story I'd heard there:
In 1990s US government, gave to Big 3 few billions $, in exchange for agreeing to better efficiency standards. It was to be used to develop more fuel efficient technologies. Toyota heard about it and was terrified what US car companies can achieve with all that R&D budget. In response, Japanese kick started very frantic development program.
By 2004 Toyota launched 2nd gen Prius, by then mature technology, only to realize that the US competition never came
. Big 3 simply took the government money and added it to already generous profits from selling trucks masquerading as SUVs (at much higher margins).The joke was on Toyota ... no wonder they do not treat Tesla threat seriously now.
If history is any example, BBB will result in dramatic improvements in Korean EV technology
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thesmokingman
Active Member
^^That can't hurt, to get some sharper claws.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Coolio2000
Member
Yup. Force that corrupt hand.
***In mysterious move, Fireworks store hires a fire extinguisher***
Edit, oh, and TSLAQ hates this so it's probably good news.
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bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Japan will double its purchase incentives for electric vehicles to as much as $7,000, on par with similar measures in the U.S. and Europe, and subsidize charging infrastructure as Tokyo looks to catch up with other major advanced economies.
Japan to double EV subsidies to match U.S. and Europe
Tokyo races to spur buying of electrics by aiding charging infrastructureasia.nikkei.com
(includes hybrids/fuel cells though ..)
I bet that chaps Toyota's ass.
RobDickinson
Active Member
I bet that chaps Toyota's ass.
I'm sure it'll be timed and weighted to local manufacturers like most places.
I'd say that this news:
Seals this deal:
Samsung Will Play A Key Role As Tesla Cybertruck Comes To Market
The deal between Tesla and Samsung is almost complete for the production of the next-generation Tesla FSD chip, aka HW 4.0 (Hardware 4). A report from The Korea Economic Daily revealed insight into the provider of this integrated chip that Tesla plans to install in the Cybertruck for the first time.
Samsung to Choose Taylor, Texas, for $17 Billion Chip-Making Factory
Taylor, a town of about 16,000 people in Williamson County, is about 30 miles away from Austin. The planned site of roughly 1,200 acres is much larger than Samsung’s property in Austin.
Seals this deal:
Samsung Will Play A Key Role As Tesla Cybertruck Comes To Market
The deal between Tesla and Samsung is almost complete for the production of the next-generation Tesla FSD chip, aka HW 4.0 (Hardware 4). A report from The Korea Economic Daily revealed insight into the provider of this integrated chip that Tesla plans to install in the Cybertruck for the first time.
Samsung to Choose Taylor, Texas, for $17 Billion Chip-Making Factory
Taylor, a town of about 16,000 people in Williamson County, is about 30 miles away from Austin. The planned site of roughly 1,200 acres is much larger than Samsung’s property in Austin.
thesmokingman
Active Member
It's starting to come together huh? After watching the interview with Alex Potter he said suppliers who used ignore Tesla will essentially turn to them in the future as they see Tesla becoming the foundation for future growth. Man how times change!
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
And how long do you think that would take to happen? As I said it does nothing to help people who need it now.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I bet that chaps Toyota's ass.
naah, note the line at the end: "(includes hybrids/fuel cells though ..)"
Toyota plans to make LOTS of those.
ZachF
Active Member
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
The legacy makers only have so many options they can choose and none of the paths are likely to have happy endings although some paths have a higher chance.
1) If they go for as many pure BEV's as they can build and supplement it with as many ICE vehicles as they can sell, they will still be mostly ICE because they don't have enough battery supply to make
2) If they make as many hybrids as they can and limit the BEV's, they might be able to sell more 'electrified' vehicles than ICE. With a given battery supply they can probably make 4 times as many PHEVs as they could BEV's in option #1.
For simplicity's sake, let's just speak of the American market. I suspect there are a lot of American car buyers who might be 'electric curious" but have some reservations about going fully electric. A PHEV is an easy sell here. There will also be people walking into dealerships with the intention to buy a BEV but will be able to be convinced of the (false) superiority of a PHEV. I mean what's not to like? It can run on either gas or electricity (depending upon what's available) and they are already accustomed to getting regular oil changes and filling with gas so that's not a show-stopper, right?
This is a sale that would likely go to Tesla if they had only a 1/4 of the number of BEV's (and not enough PHEVs).Looking at the automakers plight, and their main constraint, a shortage of batteries for more than a few years, I think doubling down on PHEVs is the strategy most likely to succeed. They will still be developing a few high-dollar BEV's and gaining experience in the design and manufacture of EV's. And then there are the federal incentives to help make this work. That bill didn't write itself! Don't get me wrong, I don't want them take that path but it's pretty obvious that's the path they have chosen. And it's not like legacy auto are strangers to misleading the consumer and selling them what they have and what serves their own interests above that of the buyer. People are gullible and they know it.
If I had no morals, and I was hired as CEO of one of the American legacy manufacturers, that's the path I would take if I wanted a fighting chance to succeed. I would push hard to get more battery supply, including building even more battery plants, but volume sales would still be needed to get them through the transition. PHEVs allow a lot more potential volume if they can fool the customer (and I think they can). Besides, the customer can't buy a car that is not available.
The way this plan fails is if enough customers decide to continue driving older ICE until they can get a reasonably priced BEV. And that's a distinct possibility. For that reason, it would be good if the auto consumer can be educated as to what is likely to happen to the value of any new hybrid they buy during this transition to pure BEV's. The smarter and more educated the consumer is in this area, the more quickly the transition to pure BEVs will happen and the more likely legacy is to fail. BEV's will not drop in price until the supply/demand balances out so, while this is good for Tesla's margins, it also will increase the chances that the strategy of going heavy on PHEVs will work. High BEV prices will also extend the number of ICE vehicles legacy can make and sell.
This is why the current bill is so bad and why I've been saying the time to subsidize EV's is long past. Especially if PHEVs are considered EVs. The subsidies have already worked, they fulfilled their mission. The money should now be spent on electrical infrastructure, renewable production and storage, increasing grid capacity, reliability and flexibility to reduce carbon emissions. But this would speed the transition and be bad for legacy auto. Which is why no one is doing anything but lip service to it.
It looks to me like all available paths result in Tesla succeeding spectacularly. Some paths result in more spectacular success but they all look beyond successful from a business standpoint of Tesla. The size of Tesla's success (at least in auto and energy storage) comes down to how quickly Tesla can ramp batteries. I think Tesla's ability to ramp batteries (once they really get going) will likely surprise and shock legacy auto who is accustomed to having someone else do most everything for them.
I bet they will have a few battery megapacks installed.
RobDickinson
Active Member
That new plant wont be done in time and likely a more advanced node than what HW4 will be built on but who knows.
If the automakers could flip a switch and make PHEVs happen over-night, then they might get 4-5 years of return on that investment. If they have existing cars/ trucks or PHEVs in the pipeline close to launch, it’s a fantastic way for them to make some short term profits.
But investing new money and converting existing production lines? Strikes me as a terrible idea. The window of opportunity is closing here and if they are investing new money into a product which won’t come on the market for 2-3 years it’s likely to be a disaster.
Totally agree. The subsidies are neutral at best and may actually get in the way as it encourages businesses to pursue short term profits at the expense of the environment and their own long term survival.
Also totally agree that the future looks quite golden for Tesla regardless of the subsidies. And in the long run, Tesla is going to suck up the lion’s share of subsidies.
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