Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LYTRIDR]

The only point that really holds is the second one. Subsidies make EVs more affordable to lower income families. This is a demand side effect. What they don't necessarily do is speed up the supply of EVs.

While hard to predict with certainty, I believe that an instant rebate of several thousand dollars will indeed speed up the adoption of EVs. I'm of the opinion that rebates are marketed by politicians as being for consumers, but are designed to help the manufacturers instead. In this case, OEMs have started to spend money on electrification, but no one other than Tesla has shown they can profit by making BEVs. Legacy does not want to flip the switch and start mass production of truly competitive BEVs so as not to Osborne their currently profitable lineup, at least not while they lack visibility as to when/if they can make money in the BEV space.

Currently, the prices they need to charge to become profitable are too high for the market to bear at the scale they need. If they have an $8,000 to $12,500 pricing advantage vs their ICE lineup which is locked in for a decade, they have line-of-sight to transition their manufacturing process in a way that has a chance to avoid the complete destruction of the company. It also will give them better leverage when they go to bankers/investors to raise debt to fund this transition if they can show clear product-market fit due to the artificially lowered price of the cars.

These factors taken together will derisk a larger, earlier investment in the transition. That clarity of direction will filter down the supply chain to the miners, the anode and cathode makers, the cell producers, etc. More, larger investments in the supply chain seem an inevitable outcome as it removes risk from scaling of these projects too early by creating certainty of future demand. A higher likelihood of profitability for OEMs also seems to reduce the counterparty risk to these supply chain companies.

I do agree with Elon that Tesla does not need the subsidy, that for Tesla, production, R & D, and charger infrastructure do not require supports from the governments to succeed. In fact, this bill as written looks very much like a bailout to US legacy OEMs. However, I think this bill would help the mission of Tesla to accelerate the transition to sustainable transportation by acting as a forcing factor and de-risking apparatus for the legacy transition.

Well, if the union and PHEV provisions are deleted anyway.

 

[Paul_SF]

What could that mean?

Probably nothing…

 

[Curt Renz]

Craig Johnson of Piper Sandler inspired my first purchase of TSLA shares in early 2013. Today as seen below, he is noting agreement with my bullish assessment of an apparent pennant pattern.

TSLA—Shares are consolidating within a bullish pennant formation. · Above the rising 10-/30-w eek WMAs. · RS has climbed back into positive territory and notable TechniGrade ranking. · Add to positions on a breakout above resistance near $1,200.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I was exploring what commodities would be useful if the dollar were to collapsed, and I came across this list with market value. Check out Vehicle Parts sitting at about half of total global car sales. Wow! I do think ICE car parts will be a lively market, but for how long is so nebulous. The more I ponder this, the deeper this puzzle gets (oil prices? consumer preferences? Insurance/FSD? Labor/robots) but I can't imagine even 10 yrs, even if it is a Honda.

I'll spare my analysis bc all that did was confuse me even more. But I'm willing to branch into another thread or a conversation if anyone has more clarity on relevant factors. Just thought this table might be worth a look.

 

[goinfraftw]

Makes the blind to see, and the lame to walk.

Simple stuff.

It's funny for now!

 

[Dangerous Fish]

What could that mean?

I don't know, but it's 133/1000 more than 12/9

 

[canoemore]

Makes the blind to see, and the lame to walk.

Simple stuff.

I have a feeling "The Apotheosis of Elon" would have a lot more Shiba Inus in it than that of Washington's in the Capitol Rotunda.

 

[GOVA]

in my view if successful , Elon will rise to a god like status.

Well, why not? I am sure it will be extraordinary step in ability to repair human body.

Initially, you asked about Tesla stock which I addressed with my little post.

 

[winfield100]

I don't see the hypocrisy here. All automakers benefited equally from the subsidies that Tesla had access to. But the difference is that all but Tesla squandered this, wasting public funds and still woefully under prepared to be competitive in the BEV market. For the government to throw good money at the companies that are most resistant to real change is not going to meet with better outcomes this decade than it did last decade. They only thing that will truly accelerate the transition to sustainable transport is for ICE makers to go out of business and allow competitive EV makers to fill the void in the new car market.

The faster oil, gas, coal and ICE vehicle producers go out of business, the sooner the climate emergency will be addressed.

OT
straying a bit off topic but focusing on the subsidies, which I got sucked into, IF you look at them with a jaundiced eye, they seemed specifically written for the GM Volt, 16kwh battery (of which 10.1kw were usable) and aimed _solely_ at hybrids, from 5Kwh to 16 kwh
$2,500 + $417/kwh from 5kwh - 16kwh (12 steps) to $7,504 (capped at $7,500)
bigger battery, no extra subsidy

 

[SOULPEDL]

What could that mean?

OMG, read that twitter thread, 12/10 = 12/9 in US. Viola!

My theory since viewing WSJ was that Elon did not lie on camera... somehow in his choice of words. I watched it again this AM, still puzzled. But this China video appears to be the most likely answer, because it's NOT 12/9.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

pretty funny

https://twitter.com/x/status/1468627585580126208

 

[JRP3]

Amusing headline:
Elon Musk thinks you should die

Elon Musk thinks you should die

"If you live forever, we might become a very ossified society where new ideas cannot succeed," Elon Musk said.

markets.businessinsider.com

 

[SOULPEDL]

Still think the best thing Elon could do and it can be both friendly and clear up the truth is sending out a very public invitation to attend the opening of the Model Y assembly line at the worlds largest Electric Vehicle Factory Gigafactory Texas. Like full page advertisements in Washington Post, NY Times and other publications.

Ya know, not a bad idea. In fact, Tesla becomes The World's Fair - where Otis sold elevators into every highrise with just one live demo of their safety mechanism. It's where the BS walks.

 

[SOULPEDL]

OMG, read that twitter thread, 12/10 = 12/9 in US. Viola!

My theory since viewing WSJ was that Elon did not lie on camera... somehow in his choice of words. I watched it again this AM, still puzzled. But this China video appears to be the most likely answer, because it's NOT 12/9.

OK, no responses... is 12/9 OT? My apologies if so.
If not, are we just not connecting 2 dots even if they occupied the same space? Folks, I see a Model 2 reveal as the most likely announcement and meaning of the date shown at the end of China's video. Anyone else?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Volume light. Shortz be cautious?

 

[Krugerrand]

Craig Johnson of Piper Sandler inspired my first purchase of TSLA shares in early 2013. Today as seen below, he is noting agreement with my bullish assessment of an apparent pennant pattern.

TSLA—Shares are consolidating within a bullish pennant formation. · Above the rising 10-/30-w eek WMAs. · RS has climbed back into positive territory and notable TechniGrade ranking. · Add to positions on a breakout above resistance near $1,200.

Well, I have it on good authority it’s a cup and handle that formed. How this guy gets a bullish pennant, I’ve no idea.

@StarFoxisDown! - explain!!

 

[AudubonB]

Numerology is ALWAYS O/T. Stop bringing up garbage.

 

[StealthP3D]

in my view if successful , Elon will rise to a god like status.

So, you're saying that would remove any shadow of doubt that Musk really is the full-blown anti-Christ his detractors always suspected he was?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

While hard to predict with certainty, I believe that an instant rebate of several thousand dollars will indeed speed up the adoption of EVs.

I'm gonna call a hard stop at your first sentence.

EV "adoption" is the current narrative being rammed into our heads by the press, no doubt at the indirect behest of fossil lobbyists. "We MUST advance EV adoption!" As if all the poor unwanted EVs must be found a home via government subsidy and consumer compromise.

Look around at reality. Nobody wants new ICE cars and everyone is clamoring for EVs. Used ICE values are inflated 30-40% simply because no one wants a stranded asset in 2025, even with interest rates at 0%! My sister has an old Honda the dealership is begging to buy off her......there's no Honda option used or new that makes any sense so she's sitting on her hands. She doesn't care much about EV vs. ICE, and would likely have a tough time adjusting to EV driving dynamics, but she has a brain.

"EV adoption" to the political left helps build the narrative their help is necessary, and to the right it speaks to electrification(and by tangent renewables) not being ready yet. They're both obviously super misleading.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So, you're saying that would remove any shadow of doubt that Musk really is the full-blown anti-Christ his detractors always suspected he was?

Wait......he's not? That's pretty much why I'm here. [12 years of Catholic school]