Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

D-bag reporter on CNBC now talking about last winters issues in Texas. Let's see if they mention storage....

Lol.....pretty damn accurate. Basically the state has done nothing and they're hoping BBB infrastructure spending will pay for all their incompetence.

Ripped "independent" Texas for not taking action. Suggested $200M for generators would be cheap and at least keep the power on for water pumping, etc....

Maybe something other than 1985 solutions will be considered around 2030. Zero mention of battery storage.

 

[Nocturnal]

D-bag reporter on CNBC now talking about last winters issues in Texas. Let's see if they mention storage....

Lol.....pretty damn accurate. Basically the state has done nothing and they're hoping BBB infrastructure spending will pay for all their incompetence.

Ripped "independent" Texas for not taking action. Suggested $200M for generators would be cheap and at least keep the power on for water pumping, etc....

Maybe something other than 1985 solutions will be considered around 2030. Zero mention of battery storage.

It's going to be crazy when it happens again and only Austin has power thanks to Megapacks.

 

[Tim S]

Tomorrow is the "Model 2 - China" reveal. It might be named differetly.

This sounds as if you are stating a fact, which I doubt. Is this just your guess of a possible announcement on Dec 10th Shanghai time?

 

[CLK350]

Tomorrow is the "Model 2 - China" reveal. It might be named differetly.

From the update to my recent post re Giga Shanghai new video

Translation of Chinese titles:

1. In-house research
2. Precision
3. In order/In line
4. Efficiency/productivity
5. Go GIGA, let's expose the "excellent" theory/law of Shanghai Giga Factory
6. 12/10, released soon, "special/tesla" coming soon

Tweet author added a clarification:
Please note on the last line in chinese is a bit tricky as coming soon is usually "敬請期待". Tesla replace the "敬" word with "特". 特 in chinese is the first word of Tesla (特斯拉), and it can also mean special (特別). So expect maybe a special tesla? tesla 2 perhaps?

 

[Beltsbear]

Tomorrow is the "Model 2 - China" reveal. It might be named differetly.

No way in heck is Tesla showing the compact car soon. Certainly not tomorrow. They will not show this car until it is nearly ready for production. The entire factory will need to be built first, and the battery supply will need to be secured. It could possibly be shown vey late 2022, but most probably 2023. While 3 took some S sales, and Y took some 3 sales, the new compact model will probably take half the demand for the model 3 away the moment it shows. The 3 will still be useful for taxi work and stuff, but many people in buy a 3 even though they want a smaller car because it is the best smallish vehicle available.

 

[jhm]

I'm gonna call a hard stop at your first sentence.

EV "adoption" is the current narrative being rammed into our heads by the press, no doubt at the indirect behest of fossil lobbyists. "We MUST advance EV adoption!" As if all the poor unwanted EVs must be found a home via government subsidy and consumer compromise.

Look around at reality. Nobody wants new ICE cars and everyone is clamoring for EVs. Used ICE values are inflated 30-40% simply because no one wants a stranded asset in 2025, even with interest rates at 0%! My sister has an old Honda the dealership is begging to buy off her......there's no Honda option used or new that makes any sense so she's sitting on her hands. She doesn't care much about EV vs. ICE, and would likely have a tough time adjusting to EV driving dynamics, but she has a brain.

"EV adoption" to the political left helps build the narrative their help is necessary, and to the right it speaks to electrification(and by tangent renewables) not being ready yet. They're both obviously super misleading.

I'd like to recommend this as a post of particular merit.

It's so very important to expose the linguistic baggage that impacts how we all frame EVs. The language of "EV adoption" does seem to perpetuate the idea that EVs have not arrived. This can mean different things depending on ones political view point, but as Tesla investors I think we do well to have confidence knowing that EVs are already the preferred technology and will soon become numerically dominant.

 

[traxila]

If 12/10 (12/9 after close in NA China news) is a MIC Tesla 2 reveal, I would guess we will see a Hertz like reaction.

Friday could be explosive.

Have a hard time believing that this has been kept under wraps so well, but it is possible. They have confirmed they have been working on it so who knows?

IMO, this is due and would be a huge step for the mission, the biggest yet.

A 25K small four door sedan is there technologically and financially for Tesla. The question is the same it has always been it seems: Where da batteries at?

 

[Curt Renz]

Reuters - 13:57 EST: Biden pledges end to gas-powered federal vehicle purchases by 2035

In response, here is what I just now wrote to the White House and those who represent me in Congress.

The president has announced his intention to build federal fleet of electric cars. Make certain they are largely Teslas. They are the most efficient and economical with the highest resale values. Teslas are by far the most American made. Tesla has built a huge network of charging stations that makes others unnecessary. Rental car company Hertz has chosen a fleet of Teslas. That should provide a hint to the government.

 

[traxila]

No way in heck is Tesla showing the compact car soon. Certainly not tomorrow. They will not show this car until it is nearly ready for production. The entire factory will need to be built first, and the battery supply will need to be secured. It could possibly be shown vey late 2022, but most probably 2023. While 3 took some S sales, and Y took some 3 sales, the new compact model will probably take half the demand for the model 3 away the moment it shows. The 3 will still be useful for taxi work and stuff, but many people in buy a 3 even though they want a smaller car because it is the best smallish vehicle available.

Real easy for the compact to be a year away and only available in Asia at the start. People that can afford would always prefer the M3. That car is a huge winner!

The lower the difference in the ASPs, the less cannibalization takes place.

Don't think it is possible to really know. Will defer to Tesla and Musk on this. Personally, I believe an M2 should come in as soon as possible. And they have been building in Shanghai...

 

[2daMoon]

Reuters - 13:57 EST: Biden pledges end to gas-powered federal vehicle purchases by 2035

In response, here is what I just now wrote to the White House and those who represent me in Congress.

The president has announced his intention to build federal fleet of electric cars. Make certain they are largely Teslas. They are the most efficient and economical with the highest resale values. Teslas are by far the most American made. Tesla has built a huge network of charging stations that makes others unnecessary. Rental car company Hertz has chosen a fleet of Teslas. That should provide a hint to the government.

... and by doing this move the target date up by ten years.

 

[CLK350]

The POTUS finally acknowledges Tesla's existence in 1/8th of a second, part of a series of snapshots of US cars from ICE's to a GM EV.
No further comment, fill in the blanks yourself (and Mods, please do show some tolerance, this is factual )

 

[JRP3]

They will not show this car until it is nearly ready for production.

On the other hand they've shown all their other vehicles well ahead of production readiness. I'd guess most people currently looking to buy a $40K+ Tesla wouldn't cancel their orders if Tesla revealed a $25K vehicle that won't be available for more than a year.

 

[Nocturnal]

If 12/10 (12/9 after close in NA China news) is a MIC Tesla 2 reveal, I would guess we will see a Hertz like reaction.

Friday could be explosive.

Have a hard time believing that this has been kept under wraps so well, but it is possible. They have confirmed they have been working on it so who knows?

IMO, this is due and would be a huge step for the mission, the biggest yet.

A 25K small four door sedan is there technologically and financially for Tesla. The question is the same it has always been it seems: Where da batteries at?

They kept the Cybertruck entirely under wraps. I have no idea if it will be shown or not. I think I'd prefer seeing them unveil products a lot closer to real production than they have in the past. Credibility suffers a little.

 

[Beltsbear]

Real easy for the compact to be a year away and only available in Asia at the start. People that can afford would always prefer the M3. That car is a huge winner!

The lower the difference in the ASPs, the less cannibalization takes place.

Don't think it is possible to really know. Will defer to Tesla and Musk on this. Personally, I believe an M2 should come in as soon as possible. And they have been building in Shanghai...

That simply is not true. People buy the Model 3 because it is the best of what is available. There are many people in Europe and China that really want a car that is 1' or more shorter and a more narrow. In fact, THEY WOULD PAY MORE for it than a Model 3, not less if given no choice. The same is not true for the USA, where bigger is always better (except NY, SF). The compact sedan will not be shown until it is production ready.

 

[MikeC]

If 12/10 (12/9 after close in NA China news) is a MIC Tesla 2 reveal, I would guess we will see a Hertz like reaction.

Friday could be explosive.

Have a hard time believing that this has been kept under wraps so well, but it is possible. They have confirmed they have been working on it so who knows?

IMO, this is due and would be a huge step for the mission, the biggest yet.

A 25K small four door sedan is there technologically and financially for Tesla. The question is the same it has always been it seems: Where da batteries at?

I think it's almost impossible Elon wouldn't have been teasing the reveal ahead of time and then introducing the car at an event himself. That's how every new Tesla vehicle reveal has occurred, and the 25k car is way too big just to be casually introduced.

 

[CorneliusXX]

The politicians are pointing to an increase in EV sales as a measure of success against climate change. But in reality it is the decline of ICE sales that truly slows climate change.

These item's are not mutually exclusive. People can delay purchasing an ICE, but only for so long if there is no EV alternative. I think you are focusing on medium term impacts rather than long. The best thing in the long term is for EV production to ramp as fast as possible so the "delay" dip doesn't get unwound at a future date.

I'm not saying the current subsidy is well planned, or that I agree with it in it's current form - however I think the fastest transition to EVs will occur when people know that EV supply will be there to meet the needs of customers - and that is helped by subsidies.

 

[15Peter20]

If 12/10 (12/9 after close in NA China news) is a MIC Tesla 2 reveal, I would guess we will see a Hertz like reaction.

Friday could be explosive.

Have a hard time believing that this has been kept under wraps so well, but it is possible. They have confirmed they have been working on it so who knows?

IMO, this is due and would be a huge step for the mission, the biggest yet.

A 25K small four door sedan is there technologically and financially for Tesla. The question is the same it has always been it seems: Where da batteries at?

If one’s goal is to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy then, based on Tesla’s previous efforts, early reveals help achieve this goal, in part by forcing legacy’s hand.

Would F150 Light(e)ning have appeared this soon if Ford weren’t desperate to trump CT for example? How many commercial EVs started development after semi reveal?

They all would, or may, have happened in time, but Tesla’s early reveals fired a starting pistol.


Showing that the impossible is possible is often a spur to making the possible mundane (4-minute mile, scaling Everest, Apollo 11 etc).

All IMO.

 

[Krugerrand]

Reuters - 13:57 EST: Biden pledges end to gas-powered federal vehicle purchases by 2035

In response, here is what I just now wrote to the White House and those who represent me in Congress.

The president has announced his intention to build federal fleet of electric cars. Make certain they are largely Teslas. They are the most efficient and economical with the highest resale values. Teslas are by far the most American made. Tesla has built a huge network of charging stations that makes others unnecessary. Rental car company Hertz has chosen a fleet of Teslas. That should provide a hint to the government.

Umm…that guy isn’t likely to live long enough to see that day. 2035? 13 years from now? Get real.

 

[Ogre]

No way in heck is Tesla showing the compact car soon. Certainly not tomorrow. They will not show this car until it is nearly ready for production. The entire factory will need to be built first, and the battery supply will need to be secured. It could possibly be shown vey late 2022, but most probably 2023. While 3 took some S sales, and Y took some 3 sales, the new compact model will probably take half the demand for the model 3 away the moment it shows. The 3 will still be useful for taxi work and stuff, but many people in buy a 3 even though they want a smaller car because it is the best smallish vehicle available.

I think you are correct.

If Tesla were going to do a 1 year pre-order thing for the Model 2, I think it might be possible, but I don’t see that happening again. After the mess with the Cybertruck with it’s million+ order backlog and delays, I think Tesla is going to wait until they are very near ready to produce the $25k Tesla before announcing it.

Pre orders are great when you need to make sure you can fill the channel with orders before you start production, but at this point it’s clear the demand is there.

 

[15Peter20]

I'd like to recommend this as a post of particular merit.

It's so very important to expose the linguistic baggage that impacts how we all frame EVs. The language of "EV adoption" does seem to perpetuate the idea that EVs have not arrived. This can mean different things depending on ones political view point, but as Tesla investors I think we do well to have confidence knowing that EVs are already the preferred technology and will soon become numerically dominant.

‘EV adoption’ and ‘Range anxiety’ will, hopefully soon, become obscure Trivial Pursuit questions of the ‘What was?’ variety.