Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hobbes]

The data for the car is:
Registreringsnummer ED21099
Understells-/chassisnr. (VIN) 5YJSA7E20KF304250

Could anything be inferred from the VIN?

Tesla VIN decoder.

Our Tesla VIN decoder tells you model specific details

tesla-info.com

 

[mejojo]

If we get over the $1210 level, I‘ll sell the whole position (500 shares) bought just before Xmas at $895. gotta stick with discipline.

That's how you get a down payment on a car, not how you get early retirement.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

If we get over the $1210 level, I‘ll sell the whole position (500 shares) bought just before Xmas at $895. gotta stick with discipline.

(not advice)

5x March $1250c pays $56,500(likely much more Thursday) and will still very likely execute. Why not take 12.6% of your outlay back in premiums now.....then another $625k when the contract executes? Half discipline is just as good!

Edit: For the record, I'm a big fan of your original plan. Discipline is the key.

 

[thesmokingman]

SP has been pinned to the Upper-BB for over an hour. It's MMs normal pattern to cap the rise, wait for volume to fall off, then attack (jump in with both shortzes by dumping 2x the 5-min running avg share volume)

View attachment 751427

They're getting pummeled now, lmao.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I guess the MM's that decided to take the extra day off and leave the interns in charge today are kinda scared now?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Lol, who called $1,200 for end-of-day today? By gawd, we've been stalking it like a creepy ex-boyfriend. This is genuine gamma squeeze territory now at +13.0%

EDIT: SP touched 1,200.00 exactly, then selling commenced

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[MC3OZ]

that would assume that by 2026 or so they have solved FSD. I'm in agreement on some aspects of what you are saying but given the history on FSD that may be ambitious. That would give them only 2-3 years to solve the non technical but very challenging regulatory hurdles. Those hurdles don't exist because the cars don't exist. Then they with have a market acceptance kind of issue. Then lots of service issues (who's cleaning the cars and don't tell me robots- cleaned a car where someone has vomited or used as a portable toilet) and Tesla service is not a strength. That requires a completely different culture. Go visit enterprise local office and see the sales folks pickup a bucket and rags and get to work cleaning if a customer is waiting. That's the culture. Social media of nasty robotaxis will be a killer. Robotaxis are not something where you'll flip a switch and make profit. Personally I think, culturally, that Tesla has work to do to launch a successful service business.

One day Elon will accurately predict the timeline for FSD.

Just becase an intelligent, well informed person has been wrong a number of times, doesn't mean he will always be wrong.

In terms of understanding the problem, knowing what the team is working on, the rate of progress and developments in the pipeline Elon is better informed than most insiders, and all those not working on the FSD team.

The explanation for him being wrong on the timeline is simple. It was always ambitious, and the problem turned out to be harder than he expected.

Perhaps the problem is still harder than he expects, perhaps unforeseen problems will emerge, perhaps his understanding of the problem is still incomplete.

But most others predicting a timeline have less information, and a more limited understanding of the problem.

So I'm running with Elon's timeline, it is always the best available estimate, in spite of being wrong many times previously.

 

[lafrisbee]

All I have to say is, if anyone is trying to time the market to sell and then buy back more shares at a lower price, you are going to have to time the market correctly twice.

And if it doesn't go down, what is your plan?

In April 2020 I attempted to do this, and I lost 20% of my shares as the stock rose from like $500 to near $700 very quickly. Luckily I bit the bullet and bought back in without trying to wait for another dip (which never happened). I "lost" basically $1 million in future returns.

But I am one of the lucky ones who bought back in. Many did not.

More from the ant.
Koi keeping is serious and quite expensive. And there is much to learn.
The true measure of the knowledge of a koi keeper is not how beautiful his fish look, but how many he has killed. Mistakes are expensive. Repeating them are to be avoided. Lessons are learned.
It is the same with stocks.

 

[Zaxxon]

That's how you get a down payment on a car, not how you get early retirement.

Agree with your sentiment, but (1210 - 895)*500 = $157,500. What kind of car are you typically buying where that's a down payment?

 

[CLK350]

All I have to say is, if anyone is trying to time the market to sell and then buy back more shares at a lower price, you are going to have to time the market correctly twice.

And if it doesn't go down, what is your plan?

In April 2020 I attempted to do this, and I lost 20% of my shares as the stock rose from like $500 to near $700 very quickly. Luckily I bit the bullet and bought back in without trying to wait for another dip (which never happened). I "lost" basically $1 million in future returns.

But I am one of the lucky ones who bought back in. Many did not.

Did same mistake/ quick recovery at $600or so back then - but this time it is different (aka same with a variation, faster speeds) - expecting a gamma squeeze now tomorrow or Wednesday, which would be possible at least partial exit time (I have sizeable long options percent wise)

Got to know when to hold ..

 

[henchman24]

There is a lot of gamma squeeze going on here. There should be a point where it can be fended off this week, but shorts will have to unwind (clearly they didn't when they had great shots to do so)... and that is going to cause more pressure on the 1/14 and 1/21s... especially the 1/21s. If the gamma squeeze hits hard, it wouldn't shock me to see 1400+ on the 21st.

 

[Singuy]

Just remember on days like today where we are raking in massive amount of money, there are real people on the other sides of those trades.

And they live in bathrooms.

View attachment 751508

I feel like we have been here before..."demand pulled forward" due to U.S subsidies expiring..wonder what happened to the result of that story....

 

[Prunesquallor]

$1200

 

[obie_fl]

And BAM we have $1200!

 

[Boomer19]

we’re up ~ 13.5% which is about what the street consensus estimate was off from p&d numbers

they’re also way off on
‘22 prod/deliv and eps estimates

so stay tuned

 

[MartinAustin]

$1200 OK only 3.6% below ATH

and... there it falls

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

There is a lot of gamma squeeze going on here. There should be a point where it can be fended off this week, but shorts will have to unwind (clearly they didn't when they had great shots to do so)... and that is going to cause more pressure on the 1/14 and 1/21s... especially the 1/21s. If the gamma squeeze hits hard, it wouldn't shock me to see 1400+ on the 21st.

Eh.....I don't think there's any gamma squeeze going on. With gamma squeezes, you see much more volatility and volume. Across my LEAPS, not seeing the spikes that we saw on the gamma squeeze that happened back in Nov. Not even close.

This honestly looks like institutional accumulation. You couldn't ask for better trading action tbh

 

[lafrisbee]

Did you mean $3k, as in $3,000?

break out the calculator up 13.4 percent for how many trading days? not 3k not 30k either. much more

 

[Boomer19]

If we get over the $1210 level, I‘ll sell the whole position (500 shares) bought just before Xmas at $895. gotta stick with discipline.

i remember you adjusted your target from
870 to 840 during that stormy time. glad for you that ignored yourself and pulled the trigger at 895!

 

[MC3OZ]

It's a lot more engineering work than you may think to switch battery cell chemistry from NMC to LFP. The heating profile and ion conductivity are vastly different between the two cathode chemistries. It will not be as simple as just making a cell with the same electrode layer thickness as existing cells. Much thermal modeling and testing wiould be required, and then you have to ask yourself "what are the potential gains?" vs just building more of the exisitng prismatic cells.

There's nothing magical about the 4680 cell format: it's an engineering compromise that was chosen specifically for Tesla's nickel chemistry cells. I don't expect any movement before 4680 production is fully ramped with the existing design. After that, why not another clean sheet of paper? Reinvent the wheel only when the wheel costs too much, is too hard to build, or is in some other way unfit for purpose.

Cheers!

Battery Day mentioned LFP for energy storage and it is the ideal chemistry for that application.

So we know where the train is going, we just need to know the departure time.