Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[traxila]

QQQs getting hammered across the board. All my stocks are red.

And yet ... Ten year yield down.

Anyone else feel that this is a reaction to our latest variant ripping through the nation and impacting the work force to the point where 1Q GDP is taking an obvious hit that is showing up on the the trackers our good high level buddies have?

 

[Lessmog]

Da hell is going on with the serious downward pressure?

My ill-informed wild guess: It is less than two weeks to Earnings report and Powers that Be have that time to report their monkey business so they can merrily short on and take positions.

 

[Singuy]

Da hell is going on with the serious downward pressure?

Everything is tanking, including the 10y lol. Maybe omicron worries due to vaccine mandate denied by the supreme court? Who knows. Market doing market things

 

[Artful Dodger]

I hope the Cybertruck news is a positive.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1481697947297406985

Tesla analyst Trip Chowdhry expects two versions of the Cybertruck to be unveiled in March 2022

Everyone is eagerly anticipating the product roadmap update from Tesla CEO Elon Musk at the upcoming earnings call scheduled for January 26, 2022. One of the biggest updates expected from Musk is in regards to […]

driveteslacanada.ca

It has been Elon's tactic in the past to release more information on upcoming Tesla products when competitors introduce new products (or new powerpoints). This is the 1st time I've heard of the potential for another CT reveal event, but it would not surprise me.

Also, it'd be good to keep it separate from the first Austin Model Y deliveries (and afterward, too). I wonder how this might tie in with a Giga Texas "County Fair" as was done in Berlin?

Cheers!

 

[GOVA]

Today is a fake macro dip manufactured by LEAP calls closing and/or profit taking before a long holiday weekend. Absolutely no other reasons for tech to drop this massively given yield is down for the day. I continue to see divergence between TSLA A/D and OBV charts, which suggests dips buying. After 1/21/22 is FOMC on 1/26 so market may just continue to brace for impact and QQQ is close to a bottom. Big green days ahead after next week.

^Dis, if you skipped a few pages.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I hope the Cybertruck news is a positive.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1481697947297406985

It would be quite bizarre for Elon/Tesla to essentially pre-announce bad news in this way. Logic says it'll be at least a neutral announcement as in no further delay but that there's new trims, probably new/updated price points that are higher than when the Cybertruck was first announced.

A positive announcement would be those things plus maybe slightly moving production up.

 

[thesmokingman]

Hold on time I guess... lol.

 

[tivoboy]

QQQs getting hammered across the board. All my stocks are red.

And yet ... Ten year yield down.

Anyone else feel that this is a reaction to our latest variant ripping through the nation and impacting the work force to the point where 1Q GDP is taking an obvious hit that is showing up on the the trackers our good high level buddies have?

Take money out of stocks, park it in 10 yr treasuries, buying goes up, yield goes down. It’s a risk off indicator at this point. I agree Q1 GDP is going to take a hit, as will overall productivity and travel is way down compared to H2’21. We’re about 25-30% below 2019 levels at this point, so extrapolate that to airlines, hotels, rental cars, restaurants, etc. This phase is going to pass though quicker than the last ones, but this point in this phase IMHO was predictable. As I said last week and earlier this week, the bargains are coming just not today.

 

[Singuy]

It would be quite bizarre for Elon/Tesla to essentially pre-announce bad news in this way. Logic says it'll be at least a neutral announcement as in no further delay but that there's new trims, probably new/updated price points that are higher than when the Cybertruck was first announced.

A positive announcement would be those things plus maybe slightly moving production up.

I don't think Elon will pre-announce bad news but he already said there's no use bringing more products into the pipeline if they can't keep up with current supply. He may reiterate this statement Q4 earnings if asked about the cybertruck.

 

[Boomer19]

comical price action!

where’s @tivoboy, he must be loving these lower highs!

will earnings break the 900 -1200-900 trend? or will we continue on the park ride?

 

[EVMeister]

comical price action!

where’s @tivoboy, he must be loving these lower highs!

will earnings break the 900 -1200-900 trend? or will we continue on the park ride?

Yup, quite literally a joke at this point. Bring on the EC!

OT

Your new avatar is tremendously cute.

 

[AZRI11]

Da hell is going on with the serious downward pressure?

If it breaks down below 1030 it will probably go all the way down to 940. That's technical trader talk. Hopefully that doesn't happen. This will never end, well in the long run it will

 

[Boomer19]

Yup, quite literally a joke at this point. Bring on the EC!

OT

Your new avatar is tremendously cute.

that’s boomer for you…not a care in the world

trying to emulate that watching these swings but it’s challenging!

 

[tivoboy]

If it breaks down below 1030 it will probably go all the way down to 940. That's technical trader talk. Hopefully that doesn't happen. This will never end, well in the long run it will

My charts, we’re sitting right at a decent support (~$1045), but yes if we get down much below here I’m not expecting to hold at $1000 too long and will get back to ~$970 quickly. (MIGHT do some scaling there, but will have to re-assess how much Macro and NDQ is impacting it)

 

[Big Time]

someone sneak onto the trading floor and ring a big bell mb we can fool them

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I don't think Elon will pre-announce bad news but he already said there's no use bringing more products into the pipeline if they can't keep up with current supply. He may reiterate this statement Q4 earnings if asked about the cybertruck.

I definitely do not think Elon/Tesla will just reiterate previous statements or even get asked about the cybertruck because it's very obvious at this point that they will be giving product updates and that the Cybertruck will be one of those updates. It'll likely be on one of the slides in the Q4 deck that gets released.

I was thinking it was just a trim/price point update but given the response they gave Gary, now I'm starting to think it's also a update on the timeline as well. Otherwise if the timeline was still exactly the same as before (limited production in late 2022, volume production in 2023), why even give that response.

 

[MC3OZ]

Probably won't happen, but would so love to see Tesla take this opportunity with the 2nd Model 3 line to introduce full front and rear casting for that car. Would be fantastic for margins, cut down floor space, and improve overall output. I'm sure Elon has his reasons (obvious) for not doing this sooner, but I can hope and wish.

I think that we may see a Model 3 with front and rear castings and 4680s in Berlin.
Get it working first at one factory, then others can slowly cutover.
It may require more of a design overhaul than we imagine, because it makes sense to migrate to 4680s.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

If it breaks down below 1030 it will probably go all the way down to 940. That's technical trader talk. Hopefully that doesn't happen. This will never end, well in the long run it will

People were saying it was going to 900 when it broke 1060 last week and how did those predictions turn out?

Could it go all the way down to 940? Sure.....if the macro's continue selling off to the tune of another 5-7% (which I think is actually likely) but it would be because macro downward pressure, not really technical trading.

 

[ZeApelido]

Sorry Joe disagrees with Elon here.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1481729117078753280

 

[capster]

I thought I’d ask this question (that I should probably remember the answer to off the top of my head) because others here might like assistance recollecting the answer as well and it is applicable to most all:

Let’s say I need to sell shares to get a certain amount of money, e.g. to cover a given sum of taxes, how do I calculate how many additional shares I need to sell to cover the taxes on the shares I sold to cover the original amount (and so on)? Any rate could apply, but call it 37% for concreteness.

Note that this is not the same question as “How do I calculate my tax on capital gains, income, or whatever?"

Also note there may be further subtleties in a given situation. For example, this can remain hypothetical for a few more months in my case *cough* safe harbor *cough*

Final note, I didn’t realize that in retiring I would lose some of that sense of contributing to society and that paying taxes mitigates the feeling of loss (though there really can be too much of a good thing ).