Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[HG Wells]

AP running a story on a tesla driver being charged with vehicular manslaughter involving autopilot related to an accident in 2019.

GEE driver went through traffic light while using Autopilot.

Must not have read the manual.

 

[Nolimits]

You just had to do it, didn't ya

Def jinxed it. Lesson learned. Wonder if my 1000 limit order will actually hit this week. Knowing my luck it’ll be low of 1001 before ER.

 

[Knightshade]

AP running a story on a tesla driver being charged with vehicular manslaughter involving autopilot related to an accident in 2019.

Yup.

Before the car stopped for red lights on its own, so while it'd be driver error either way there's not even an excuse of "thinking" the car would do it here.

Story I saw even calls out the fact the prosecutor didn't mention autopilot as relevant in the case.

 

[ZCStoFly]

Closed at 1030.5 (-1.82%), not bad considering NasDAQ dropped 387 points (-2.6%). Bought a Feb Call.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Closed at 1030.5 (-1.82%), not bad considering NasDAQ dropped 387 points (-2.6%). Bought a Feb Call.

I'd be slightly cautious, you might get an even better opportunity for Calls or LEAPS in the next few days.

TSLA has a tendency to show strength one day and then underperform the next day or next series of days. Considering we're 6 trading days away from some monumental earnings, I would expect some shenanigans to go on at some point before then. Especially with the macro's this weak/volatile.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

This guy must have done a cost benefit analysis before investing $250,000 on the ad.
He expects to gain substantially if he maligns tesla. He is not doing this for the benefit
of humanity.

I predict he's taking Green Hills Software public. This is just an elaborate ploy to present his unhackable, completely reliable software to the public. He did a good job building his company over the last 40 years, now it's time to cash in.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I wonder when Tesla will start making their own LFP cells. The sooner, the better, imo. The Tesla Economist is convinced there will not be Tesla LFP cells in the 4680 form factor. I tend to agree.

 

[RobDickinson]

LFP doesnt need the 4680 form factor we've talked about this a lot.

Its fine in pouch cells and needs the bump in energy density

will tesla make them? No idea.

 

[deffu]

I'd be slightly cautious, you might get an even better opportunity for Calls or LEAPS in the next few days.

TSLA has a tendency to show strength one day and then underperform the next day or next series of days. Considering we're 6 trading days away from some monumental earnings, I would expect some shenanigans to go on at some point before then. Especially with the macro's this weak/volatile.

That’s correct. It outperformed the market for the past two days. It’s either going to fade or some event mm knows will pump it

 

[RobDickinson]

UK model Y deliveries start mid Feb, vins have been assigned.

 

[SmokyPeat]

LFP doesnt need the 4680 form factor we've talked about this a lot.

Its fine in pouch cells and needs the bump in energy density

will tesla make them? No idea.

Yes, I've heard a few here opine that there will be 4680 LFP cells, and several (including myself) think it unlikely. Prismatic seems to be the favored form factor, with BYD's blade prismatic leading the pack(pun intended).

 

[Cosmacelf]

Yes, I've heard a few here opine that there will be 4680 LFP cells, and several (including myself) think it unlikely. Prismatic seems to be the favored form factor, with BYD's blade prismatic leading the pack(pun intended).

What’s so hard/unlikely about a 4680 LFP? Tesla is already using 2170 LFP.

 

[MC3OZ]

Yes, I've heard a few here opine that there will be 4680 LFP cells, and several (including myself) think it unlikely. Prismatic seems to be the favored form factor, with BYD's blade prismatic leading the pack(pun intended).

Prismatic is just easier make, and more convenient for most car makers.

If Tesla makes LFP cells in house, these are likely to be 4680, as that is the most convenient form factor, especially when used with structural battery pack in vehicles.

For grid energy storage, prismatic may be more convenient, but in that case Tesla is likely to buy cells.

For BYD blade batteries they are well suited to an entry level EV, but again Tesla would simply be buying the cells/packs from BYD.

Keep in mind the target of 3 TWh of internal production by 2030.

 

[generalenthu]

What’s so hard/unlikely about a 4680 LFP? Tesla is already using 2170 LFP.

You should watch the limiting factors' video about the byd blade battery. 4680 ff is not volumetrically efficient packing for LFP

 

[EVDRVN]

Yes, I've heard a few here opine that there will be 4680 LFP cells, and several (including myself) think it unlikely. Prismatic seems to be the favored form factor, with BYD's blade prismatic leading the pack(pun intended).

Because the can pack them in

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla is already using 2170 LFP.

Really? I have never heard of such. The current LFP packs in the Model 3/Y are not 2170. And energy storage isn't using LFP yet.

 

[UkNorthampton]

What’s so hard/unlikely about a 4680 LFP? Tesla is already using 2170 LFP.

LFP, better to take a bigger roll, squash it a bit and put it into a cuboid shell. But Tesla & others can work out the best format. I think 4680 is ideal for high-energy, unlikely to be optimal for LFP.

 

[Ipcress]

Stellantis CEO complains that the transition to EV is.... a risk for the environment: Europe's EV drive comes with environmental, social risks, Stellantis CEO says

You can't make this up.

Europe-based Stellantis is the sixth-largest automaker worldwide. Tesla is about to start the Berlin Gigafactory in a few days.

What an idiot:

"What is clear is that electrification is a technology chosen by politicians, not by industry," he said in a joint interview with France's Les Echos, Handelsblatt, Corriere della Sera and El Mundo."

If we waited for politicians it would never have happened. The technology was chosen by people, and made available by industry in the form of Tesla and Elon Musk.

 

[RobDickinson]

What’s so hard/unlikely about a 4680 LFP? Tesla is already using 2170 LFP.

No, no they are not.

 

[MC3OZ]

LFP, better to take a bigger roll, squash it a bit and put it into a cuboid shell. But Tesla & others can work out the best format. I think 4680 is ideal for high-energy, unlikely to be optimal for LFP.

The big unknown here is if Tesla would prefer to standardize on the 4680 format for all packs, or if there would be a format optimised for LFP.

Elon once mentioned something about more than one format.

With DBE at one time there was a limit on the minimum diameter. one approach would be to wrap the jelly roll around 2 poles spaced apart to create a squashed cylinder effect. That is 1/2 way between 4680 and prismatic. But even that change is a substantial change to the production line, all of the equipment from that point onwards needs to accommodate the new form factor.

Would DBE work with regular prismatic formats? IMO this is problematic.

DBE was only supposed to save 10% of the cell cost, but in terms of manufacturing equipment and Capex, we need to refer to Battery Day, but the difference is significant.

The is worth remembering, al of the Battery Day manufacturing processes were optimised around the 4680 format, building cells in another format is non-trivial.