Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

I think it's due to a paradigm shift from one that was understood to one that is uncertain.

The master plan was:

• Roadster fund Model S & X
• Model S&X fund Model 3&Y
• Model 3&Y fund the mass market car

Bullet point number 3 has suddenly changed to Models 3 & Y become some popular due to FSD we don't need the mass market car anymore. As far as the market is concerned, FSD isn't a sure thing and Elon's timelines aren't credible. This uncertainty isn't good for share price. My guess is we're stuck (under 900) until Tesla proves FSD.

No, according to Deutsches Banks's note, bullet 3 should be:

• Model 3&Y become the mass market car due to cost decreases associated with localization, new batteries, efficiency and scale.

 

[gtrplyr1]

I don't know about "Them" bringing us down at this point. From my view it was obvious to me that Elon's lack of ability to communicate with WS speak really spooked an already spooked market. Love Elon but I've always thought that his lack of communication skills did a dis-service to the company. I realize it's not a popular opinion but I'm only speaking about his ability to communicate to analysts and investors, it says nothing of his ability to see things the average person misses. He's brilliant, driven and a fantastic leader for the company .... but spokesperson he is not. His replies on Twitter about what he was TRYING to say speak volumes ..... I was really happy when they announced a while back that Elon would not bother being on the calls so I'm not entirely sure why he was on the last one .... it should be obvious to everyone that it didn't work out well.

I'm getting murdered but I'm long .... lost 7 figures yesterday alone .... down about 3million over the last 2 weeks and it sucks but I believe in the company and the product so I'm confident in time we will recover and SP will climb .... till then .... I need a drink.

Cheers to the longs ....

 

[Drumheller]

In Elon's podcast appearance with Lex Friedman he alluded to there being internal data showing that FSD would surpass human safety levels by the end off 2022. It would be great if someone with a bit of twitter mojo could ask him to share some of this data. I would LOVE to see what internal statistics they are relying on along with the decay rate & function from the past few years of development. A simple graph would be all it would take! Where does the decaying line of FSD failure intersect the horizontal line of human failure?

Current FSD safety data isn't really FSD safety data. It's actually FSD plus a human monitor safety data. That combo safer than a human by end of 2022, I think that's likely. FSD ready for anything near robotaxi level without human monitoring by end of 2022... I put that at less than a 5% chance.

I read on here yesterday that the the code is undergoing another major rewrite. I don't know if that is accurate or verified. I know in software development that a project nearing completion doesn't undergo a major rewrite.

 

[WattsHappening]

Are they seriously trying to get us to close down for today?

Amazing, isn't it?

Question for old-timers. How similar is this week compared to the dark days of 2014-2019? I was an investor then, but had a much smaller position and didn't hang out here (I know, I know).

How can sentiment be THIS BAD? Is Wall Street that short-sighted? Is this the time to leverage up by trading shares for LEAPs? I don't do margin, thank goodness.

 

[Big Time]

If only someone at Tesla would go take a photo of a Austin Model Y and put it up on their twitter page.
A 15 second task done during a rough patch in the stock and market is too much work and a distraction from getting actual work done I guess....
"Check this out, Almost Ready!" Sure there's photos in the slide deck. What percentage of people invested saw those. 0.005%?

Meanwhile -33% shares for the investors, AND the employees. Thats a double edged sword. Disagree all you want.
Again and again. Hope they figure that out that not everyone wants to hear about products coming out in 5 years during a market break down. Thats the definition of insanity. I know, they "don't care about the stock price" but it would be nice if they start to one of these years...... we've passed the test, time to upgrade to the next level. Obviously this is a borderline pointless post but when you see a problem, fix it. Im a skipping record I guess.

They have no problem fixing other problems..... build a tent, put some wood shims under the hood. Stop shooting yourself in the foot when in a race. Mb they don't need to AT ALL? I don't know.

Love Elon, Love the vision, Love the company, Love the financials, Love the long term prospects, Love the roadmap, Love the future.
HATE the communications. Hate it. It's awful. Disagree all you want.

Get the pig with neuralink on the ER he probably has a clue what to say and what not to say.

Best of luck, sorry for my same rant. Perhaps I'm the one making the same mistake twice. But my vote is to get Elon off the conference calls, and let him be present for the stuff that he loves to do, and do MORE OF IT!! The product releases and driving around the Cybertruck in the factory and smashing *sugar* with sledge hammers. Hold the ER, and then afterwords have a broadcast, with no analysts or questions for him whatsoever and he can explain the stuff that the future holds in his special way. Love the guy, but it seems like I'm constantly thinking this same thing would emensly benefit everyone involved, with very little downside. My guess is he's been instructed EXACTLY what to do and not do, over and over, and has told those people off entirely because that's not how he got here and its against his better judgement. Which is cool I suppose.

Im probably just bitter because I cant afford to buy more. If I sunk every bit of my savings into more TSLA it wouldn't increase my portfolio by more than 10%, So its a risk I probably shouldn't be taking.

End rant, good luck everyone.

 

[mars_or_bust]

Sigh, disappointed at Karenrei with that statement. Yes Elon is a liability to short term stock movements because he is a risk taker.

However if we take a step back, Elon pretty much guided that Asp wouldn't drop from here but only increase. That's like in no body's model. So yes he has up the stake on the risk/reward prospect of Tesla and is frustrating for people sick of the volatility of Tesla especially in a high volatility macro environment.

Karen seems to have completely gone in full "Karen"/woke mode about everything. It seemed to have started with her bitcoin diatribe against Elon, and her dissapointment in him being unwoke. Used to follow her on twitter, but unfollowed her a few months ago. Don't know what happened to her, but her downfall from being a person to look for deep takes on various matters to her current state was sad to watch.Not quite full neroden turn, but getting there. On the very positive side, her partner in leaving this forum, TeslaFacts/FactChecking, has becoming a very positive and prominent and informative twitter presence.

 

[CorneliusXX]

You know when you're lost in the park and you really hope you're going in the right direction...

View attachment 761381

How do you get out of the water into the promised land?

 

[Artful Dodger]

It would be great if someone with a bit of twitter mojo could ask him to share

Ugh, no thanks! It was WholeMarsBlog's "twitter mojo" in early Dec. that suckered Elon into grabbing the bait "when is a Cybertruck update coming?"

Elon twitted back "Wait for product roadmap update on next earnings call".

That's was a $100B troll right there. We might not be able to affect Elon's behavior, but shirley we can blog at Mars. Like, Dube, STFU already! Haha

Cheers!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Keeping an eye on May20 $1100c.......$39 today, will scoop up if it ever drifts down to $16. I'm thinking either the math gets done in the coming weeks or certainly after 1Q earnings are out and ACTUAL PE compresses to BELOW 100.

Do we have an @The Accountant estimate for 1Q22 EPS? I went with a random $2.45 to do the above math.

 

[Beltsbear]

Their only non-fixed product you can buy, Spot, is four legged. If they could do bipedal human form wouldn’t they?

It is all about cost, and energy packaging. It has ZERO to do with the ability to balance. College kids can make a robot that balances on one leg. Tesla's biggest challenges will be similar. How to get enough energy in that small space and how to keep costs down.

 

[jerry33]

Amazing, isn't it?

Question for old-timers. How similar is this week compared to the dark days of 2014-2019? I was an investor then, but had a much smaller position and didn't hang out here (I know, I know).

How can sentiment be THIS BAD? Is Wall Street that short-sighted? Is this the time to leverage up by trading shares for LEAPs? I don't do margin, thank goodness.

Besides Wall Street always being short sighted (they are really only concerned with this quarter) much of Wall Street has a lot of assets tied up in fossil fuels, so it's to their best interest (assuming profit this quarter is really in their best interest) to hamper Tesla every chance they get. However, they've already failed their first goal, which was to drive Tesla out of business.

 

[Cherry Wine]

For anyone with a short-term outlook, this is white-knuckle stuff here folks. We are on the cliff's edge of a bear market.

 

[Knightshade]

I read on here yesterday that the the code is undergoing another major rewrite. I don't know if that is accurate or verified. I

It is. Elon mentioned it both in his recent Lex Friedman interview and on the earnings call itself (though much more briefly on the call)

 

[UnknownSoldier]

View attachment 761395

Saying the word 'yet' there was a mistake. In fact, why did you even mention margin call? They didn't ask you, why are you volunteering information that wasn't even asked for?

Seriously, if you don't know what you are doing, don't even answer the questions. Only ask the questions you want to ask. Do not give them anything.

 

[elasalle]

cars are there, tent is there ... just matter of time

 

[The Accountant]

Keeping an eye on May20 $1100c.......$39 today, will scoop up if it ever drifts down to $16. I'm thinking either the math gets done in the coming weeks or certainly after 1Q earnings are out and ACTUAL PE compresses to BELOW 100.

Do we have an @The Accountant estimate for 1Q22 EPS? I went with a random $2.45 to do the above math.

You're good. You take a second to come up with a random guess of $2.45 and I spend hours to arrive at $2.50 for GAAP EPS.
My non-GAAP is EPS $2.88.
I expect both numbers to go up when I revise the model next week.

 

[Unpilot]

Besides Wall Street always being short sighted (they are really only concerned with this quarter)

That can't be right.... Garry Black is saying the SP dropped because of fears for 2023 and beyond.
The next quarter is going to be great!

 

[Big Time]

cars are there, tent is there ... just matter of time

Cool video. Nice to see all the outlaying stuff getting completed

 

[Drezil]

But my vote is to get Elon off the conference calls, and let him be present for the stuff that he loves to do, and do MORE OF IT!! The product releases and driving around the Cybertruck in the factory and smashing *sugar* with sledge hammers. Hold the ER, and then afterwords have a broadcast, with no analysts or questions for him whatsoever and he can explain the stuff that the future holds in his special way. Love the guy, but it seems like I'm constantly thinking this same thing would emensly benefit everyone involved, with very little downside. My guess is he's been instructed EXACTLY what to do and not do, over and over, and has told those people off entirely because that's not how he got here and its against his better judgement. Which is cool I suppose.

So much this. Let elon do Podcasts, SNL, Social Media .. just being Elon. That is cool and all.

But not on conference calls. He was so slow and thoughtful & then got distracted mid-sentence again. I would have loved to hear more from the other guys. Short, concise, things that analysts can copy/paste in their letters to investors. Calls are not the place for tangents in what could be. If you cannot answer a question in 1 Sentence, refer to someone else.

I mean, think of the question: What about home-HVAC.
Answer i wished for: "We have all the neccessary components and planning on beginning of development of a product, but we have no clear roadmap yet that we can communicate".
Answer we got: 1.5 pages of transcript of 4-5 people throwing ideas in the room on what could be, which basically boiled down to the above.

Thats what i don't like about the calls... I mean .. they know the questions beforehand ..