Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chunky Jr.]

I have a hard time believing TSLA is as easily manipulated as some people claim. If it were that easy, they could make an infinite amount of money.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Man I waited all weekend for this BS stock price movement. Come on go up or down! I got to feed my addiction.

You got your wish. Thanks. Btw, picked up a share at $90x.wz (price that thou shall not name). Still have orders in for $88x.yz just in case.

 

[zach_]

I have a hard time believing TSLA is as easily manipulated as some people claim. If it were that easy, they could make an infinite amount of money.

Everyone likes a good conspiracy here and there, Tesla is not the stock/company it was 3 years ago, but it seems the feeling of being the underdog sticking it to the shadowy man is hard to shake.

While I do think there was legitimacy to shenanigans back when Tesla was sub 50B company, I think for explanations of almost all of modern day TSLA price action you need only look to the options market. It is gigantic, as has oft been discussed here, and hedging these options trades will have direct impacts on the stock.

This morning for example we had a big spike up in the price, correlated with heavy call buying (relative to put buying).

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Everyone likes a good conspiracy here and there, Tesla is not the stock/company it was 3 years ago, but it seems the feeling of being the underdog sticking it to the shadowy man is hard to shake.

While I do think there was legitimacy to shenanigans back when Tesla was sub 50B company, I think for explanations of almost all of modern day TSLA price action you need only look to the options market. It is gigantic, as has oft been discussed here, and hedging these options trades will have direct impacts on the stock.

This morning for example we had a big spike up in the price, correlated with heavy call buying (relative to put buying).

From what I can tell, whatever is happening isn't unique to TSLA. These are charts from today for various companies. They look pretty much the same to me. TSLA is the highlighted one. Others, in no particular order are NASDAQ, GOOG, MSFT, AAPL

 

[Singuy]

Everyone likes a good conspiracy here and there, Tesla is not the stock/company it was 3 years ago, but it seems the feeling of being the underdog sticking it to the shadowy man is hard to shake.

While I do think there was legitimacy to shenanigans back when Tesla was sub 50B company, I think for explanations of almost all of modern day TSLA price action you need only look to the options market. It is gigantic, as has oft been discussed here, and hedging these options trades will have direct impacts on the stock.

This morning for example we had a big spike up in the price, correlated with heavy call buying (relative to put buying).

There's just too much incentive for people to buy/sell options due to its volatility. If we have these 1% moves day in and day out then our option volume would drop like a rock. However Tesla's volatility is high due to the media hyping up everything, Musk's random behavior on twitter, and the entrenched belief into the company as being future of all things or FSD fraud.

Like honestly who asks twitter to see if he can sell 10% of the company's shares on the open market no less after a 20% gamma squeeze? You never get this kind of randomness from other companies hence we account for 50% of all derivatives in the market.

 

[mrmtb]

I have a hard time believing TSLA is as easily manipulated as some people claim. If it were that easy, they could make an infinite amount of money.

They just have no idea what they're doing and need someone to blame.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

From what I can tell, whatever is happening isn't unique to TSLA. These are charts from today for various companies. They look pretty much the same to me. TSLA is the highlighted one. Others, in no particular order are NASDAQ, GOOG, MSFT, AAPL

View attachment 766112

There's actually a lot more difference in those charts than you're insinuating and especially when you factor in percentage moves. As I pointed out in a earlier post, TSLA had a swing of 4% today. Did those other stock chart experience the same? Probably not.

 

[Hock1]

I have a hard time believing TSLA is as easily manipulated as some people claim. If it were that easy, they could make an infinite amount of money.

I believe that is what their goal is.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I have a hard time believing TSLA is as easily manipulated as some people claim. If it were that easy, they could make an infinite amount of money.

It's not easy, which is why they can't do it very often. But they are making an infinite amount of money, because they can profit from both down days and up days. And on days where we start up and end down, they make the most money.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

It's not easy, which is why they can't do it very often. But they are making an infinite amount of money, because they can profit from both down days and up days. And on days where we start up and end down, they make the most money.

who are "they"? any publicly traded companies? A company that can make an unlimited amount of money due to manipulation would be a tempting investment.

 

[Discoducky]

It's not easy, which is why they can't do it very often. But they are making an infinite amount of money, because they can profit from both down days and up days. And on days where we start up and end down, they make the most money.

About as close to infinite until FSD is solved.

Then, they lose, we win. Won't be tomorrow, but the day is coming.

 

[jerry33]

I have a hard time believing TSLA is as easily manipulated as some people claim. If it were that easy, they could make an infinite amount of money.

Except for they have the occasional bad day when Tesla rakes in a few billion.

 

[lafrisbee]

OT

 

[ZeApelido]

OT

In case anyone wants to know what it's like to have a deranged mentality, I looked at this video and started thinking:

I'm 6ft 200lbs and fast. I could climb the Fremont fences, sprint over to the Cybertruck, jump in the driver's seat and takeoff. Nobody could stop me.

There was no planning for how I was going to get out of the plant and what I would actually do with the truck, but this was a serious thought.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

In case anyone wants to know what it's like to have a deranged mentality, I looked at this video and started thinking:

I'm 6ft 200lbs and fast. I could climb the Fremont fences, sprint over to the Cybertruck, jump in the driver's seat and takeoff. Nobody could stop me.

There was no planning for how I was going to get out of the plant and what I would actually do with the truck, but this was a serious thought.

Just jumping in that CT and taking it for a few laps would make my year!

 

[MC3OZ]

In case anyone wants to know what it's like to have a deranged mentality, I looked at this video and started thinking:

I'm 6ft 200lbs and fast. I could climb the Fremont fences, sprint over to the Cybertruck, jump in the driver's seat and takeoff. Nobody could stop me.

There was no planning for how I was going to get out of the plant and what I would actually do with the truck, but this was a serious thought.

Also no though about having a phone key, but we would find out if the Cybertruck has an ejector seat

 

[Big Time]

wow great look at the cyber truck in natural surroundings, but that drone flyer was flying way to close to the workers.

 

[Thumper]

Any ideas what they were doing with the CT?

 

[MC3OZ]

You have ignored quite a few options. Just ones mentioned already by Tesla from time to time:
1. HVAC integrated products for houses and other buildings;
2. New vehicle classes;
3. Trains, Planes...
4. Energy intermediation (they already have entered, but we ignore it, this is one fo the largest single human revenue categories);
5. Energy production (probably mostly solar);
6. Then there all those that have not yet been discussed;
7. Sure, toss in Robotaxi, Semi, Cybertruck, Optimus etc.

And the list goes on. Every time we underestimate how comprehensive the Tesla mission is we imagine they'll not be capable of finding productive uses for all the FCF. I have no idea what they'll actually do, but I am certain they're far from done in revolutionizing sustainable planetary improvements.

It isn't wise to draw a box around something and say Tesla can't do it, can't afford to do it, or will never do it.

However, I regard Battery Day and AI Day as the gold standard of how to do things properly.

Just getting to the point of being able to present a coherent plan takes a lot of research, planning, hard work, knowledge and time.

So I think when we look at Tesla doing anything, they need:-

1. Product design
2. Manufacturing Equipment Design and spec - including equipment made by Tesla.
3. Factory design
4. Land (including transport links, etc)
5. Buildings (construction, plans, permits etc)
6. Staff for factory equipment installation and testing.
7. Staff to operate factory equipment
8. Raw materials, parts
9. Energy including grid/gas connections if needed.
10. Production permits and vehicle certifications.

Nothing on the list is impossible, but everything takes time, and needs the right people with the right level of knowledge.
So I think funding isn't likely to be the primary limitation.

Then when we look at acquisitions, Grohmann, Hibar and Maxwell are textbook examples of the types of acquisitions I would like to see Tesla make.
Moistly small or start up companies with novel technologies or specialist knowledge. For this type of acquisition the people as just as much of an asset as any IP the company might own. And the marriage is a good fit because a small company with talented people and good ideas mostly needs capital to back their ideas. Culturally the workers would be a good fit and should integrate well into Tesla.

When we look at the wrong type of acquisition, an existing large Power Utility, Insurance Company or carmaker, is probably a bad fit.

So I think for the type of acquisitions I would ideally like to see Tesla make, Capital isn't a big limitation and there is a likely limitation on how much they can spend. No point in buying the wrong companies.

We also need to keep in mind that Elon half expects a recession, I don't expect a recession, but if there was a recession. having good cash flow, high margins and a pile of cash is a great place to be in,

So in summary I don't think there are any limitations on what Tesla will do, except for the primary limitation - time.

 

[Thekiwi]

OT

Who needs industrial espionage budgets when Tesla Ubersleuths post things like this on youtube for free.