Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bkp_duke]

Time for some cheerful news.

Picked up a Model 3 today from Hertz at the Atlanta airport for a business trip. Talked to some of the workers there on the Hertz lot, and every last one of them said that the Model 3 is their best renting car and people keep asking for it. The clients love them, "educating" people how to drive them has been easy, and it's rare for anyone to complain about charging. There are quite a few Tesla owners, of course, that rent the cars, but they are seeing a lot of non-owners as well. That's bullish IMO!

I poked around the nav system and interesting given the nav history, the car had been rented out in that Atlanta area since Dec of last year. So go suck on that @GordonJohnson!

Only downside I had was the car I picked up was missing an aero-cover hub cap, and only had 1900 miles on it, so that could be a problem in the future if that is something that frequently needs replacing.

 

[EVCollies]

I heard Ford and GM will start counting all their cars and trucks equipped with block heaters for severe winter weather as Plug-in Electric Vehicles starting this year to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy. According to GM, an electrical block heater assists the transition to sustainable energy and prevents extended warm-up idling in winter before driving off. They are applying for clarification that this will qualify as a Plug-in Hybrid under the proposed Federal Tax Credits. This will assist them in achieving their goal of 50% electric vehicles by 2030.

/s

Oops, they were recalled too....

Chevrolet and GMC Heavy-Duty Pickup Trucks Recalled Due to Short-Circuit Concerns​

Diesel-powered 2017-2019 models equipped with an engine block heater are affected

/s

 

[deshkart]

I shared this on reddit few days back and think people will here find this useful.

Many people get carried away by magical battery breakthrough news and fail to appreciate the parameters that make a great battery. For example, one of my friend thinks VW will make a battery in 2 years that will be magically charged in 5 mins and go 1000 kms on a full charge. A battery needs to have high cycle life, easy and cheap to manufacture with abundant raw materials, structurally safe to withstand high wear and tear from automobile use. If none of the criteria is met, battery is not competitive. People fail to understand how hard it is to find a new chemistry that can work in practice. The Li Ion technology has taken nearly 25 years to reach current state and I don’t see anything replacing it anytime soon.

The underlying reason is that there are limited elements in the periodic table and only handful of those elements are available abundantly, easy and cheap to mine, have existing supply chains and capacity to supply future need. Of these elements, even lesser elements are suited for a battery that can conduct and hold electrons. This aspect will never change. It’s not like we can send a software update to Elements and magically modify their properties. Even if a new chemistry is identified, it will take decades to be competitive with current Li Ion and LFP technology. The last element that exists in a stable state outside a lab with significant half life ( like decades ) was found nearly 30 years ago. All other elements added to periodic table are artificially made in lab and those atoms are so heavy that they disintegrate to elements of lower weight. It’s quite possible that we have found all elements that will be of any benefits to humans ( meaning having significant half life to be put into any real world use ).

What this means to Tesla ? I believe tesla clearly understands this aspect and 4680 is the result - push existing chemistries to limits rather than hunting for new chemistries that seem extremely hard from a glance at the periodic table. 4680 and Tesla battery innovation will stay with humanity for decades and possibly centuries to come. Other battery innovations (if ever) may turn out to be marginally better on one of the parameters but if they are not cheaper than 4680, they may not take off. With 4680 about to enter a massive S curve, we are at the start of a massive transformation of energy and transportation systems.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Cheer up folks. Rates are plummeting, and you know what that means.....

Rotation back to tech/growth! Just kidding, but it actually wouldn't surprise me.

Meanwhile..... we're about to enter the last month of 1Q. Bring on the earnings report!

 

[Prunesquallor]

…

Meanwhile..... we're about to enter the last month of 1Q. Bring on the earnings report!

Uh, yeeaaah. That always turns out well. (/s implied).

 

[Chunky Jr.]

tweaks underway to Model S, resulting in some down time...

Tesla reportedly pauses Model S line to make way for updated headlights

Tesla has reportedly paused the Model S line production at the Fremont Factory to work on some slight changes for the flagship full-sized sedan. In December 2021, sightings on public roads hinted that a new Tesla Model S equipped with a new taillight design and revised charging door may be...

www.teslarati.com

 

[StealthP3D]

I shared this on reddit few days back and think people will here find this useful.

Many people get carried away by magical battery breakthrough news and fail to appreciate the parameters that make a great battery. For example, one of my friend thinks VW will make a battery in 2 years that will be magically charged in 5 mins and go 1000 kms on a full charge. A battery needs to have high cycle life, easy and cheap to manufacture with abundant raw materials, structurally safe to withstand high wear and tear from automobile use. If none of the criteria is met, battery is not competitive. People fail to understand how hard it is to find a new chemistry that can work in practice. The Li Ion technology has taken nearly 25 years to reach current state and I don’t see anything replacing it anytime soon.

The underlying reason is that there are limited elements in the periodic table and only handful of those elements are available abundantly, easy and cheap to mine, have existing supply chains and capacity to supply future need. Of these elements, even lesser elements are suited for a battery that can conduct and hold electrons. This aspect will never change. It’s not like we can send a software update to Elements and magically modify their properties. Even if a new chemistry is identified, it will take decades to be competitive with current Li Ion and LFP technology. The last element that exists in a stable state outside a lab with significant half life ( like decades ) was found nearly 30 years ago. All other elements added to periodic table are artificially made in lab and those atoms are so heavy that they disintegrate to elements of lower weight. It’s quite possible that we have found all elements that will be of any benefits to humans ( meaning having significant half life to be put into any real world use ).

What this means to Tesla ? I believe tesla clearly understands this aspect and 4680 is the result - push existing chemistries to limits rather than hunting for new chemistries that seem extremely hard from a glance at the periodic table. 4680 and Tesla battery innovation will stay with humanity for decades and possibly centuries to come. Other battery innovations (if ever) may turn out to be marginally better on one of the parameters but if they are not cheaper than 4680, they may not take off. With 4680 about to enter a massive S curve, we are at the start of a massive transformation of energy and transportation systems.

The 4680 will probably be with us for 40-80 years in large quantities but not for centuries except perhaps in the same way you can still buy a 6V lantern battery.

People who think better batteries are needed before EV's are so practical they will easily displace all ICE vehicles either don't understand how good current batteries like the 2170 and the soon to be released 4680 are, or they are deliberately spreading FUD in a lame attempt to make the current state of the art batteries seem like they are not good enough to adopt without serious reservations.

Sure, improvements are always welcome and that's true whether talking about batteries or the reliability and robustness of ICE engines and transmissions. It should be constantly pointed out to these people just how excellent current batteries are and that, as charging networks grow into the nooks and crannies off the beaten path, less benefit will be provided by more energy dense batteries that charge a bit more quickly. Sure, any improvement is always welcome, but it won't be a game-changer. More important is making batteries cheaper and that will happen from scale, even without major breakthroughs.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

The Dealer lobby is not content banning the sale of Teslas (and other direct to consumer cars). Now they are also trying to ban OTA software updates in West Virginia so that consumers must go to the dealer to get updates.

EXCLUSIVE: West Virginia Moves to Ban OTA Updates

West Virginia wants to ban Tesla and other auto automakers from sending out OTA updates, among other things. In a letter from a dealer lobby.

cleantechnica.com

 

[2daMoon]

The Dealer lobby is not content banning the sale of Teslas (and other direct to consumer cars). Now they are also trying to ban OTA software updates in West Virginia so that consumers must go to the dealer to get updates.

EXCLUSIVE: West Virginia Moves to Ban OTA Updates

West Virginia wants to ban Tesla and other auto automakers from sending out OTA updates, among other things. In a letter from a dealer lobby.

cleantechnica.com

So, is that the sound of the dinosaurs(dealer-saurs?) shortly after the meteor strike, and yet, still prior to total extinction?

 

[Ogre]

The 4680 will probably be with us for 40-80 years in large quantities but not for centuries except perhaps in the same way you can still buy a 6V lantern battery.

People who think better batteries are needed before EV's are so practical they will easily displace all ICE vehicles either don't understand how good current batteries like the 2170 and the soon to be released 4680 are, or they are deliberately spreading FUD in a lame attempt to make the current state of the art batteries seem like they are not good enough to adopt without serious reservations.

Sure, improvements are always welcome and that's true whether talking about batteries or the reliability and robustness of ICE engines and transmissions. It should be constantly pointed out to these people just how excellent current batteries are and that, as charging networks grow into the nooks and crannies off the beaten path, less benefit will be provided by more energy dense batteries that charge a bit more quickly. Sure, any improvement is always welcome, but it won't be a game-changer. More important is making batteries cheaper and that will happen from scale, even without major breakthroughs.

People always want to believe there is a silver bullet technology out there which is going to trump everything on the market today over night.

The truth is much more boring. At the risk of being a bit cliche, Einstein had the answer: “It’s not that I’m so smart, it’s just that I stay with problems longer.”. Einstein of course vastly understated his own intelligence, but pointed out one of the fundamental truths of science, technology, and engineering. Pushing an idea as far as it will possibly go is often the best way to achieve breakthroughs.

By the time people figure out how to make any number of other 5x silver bullet energy storage technologies work at scale, Tesla will have quietly pushed batteries to 5x performance or more. Not just Tesla, others will be pushing Lithium Ion along as well. The thing people miss is the silver bullet doesn’t have to be better than battery technology today, it has to be better than it will be in 5 years when that technology is ready for scale production.

These battery companies, Tesla, BYD, CATL, they are all pushing at corners of the technology and squeezing more and more performance for less and less money.

It’s possible that solid state or something will be able to be manufactured at scale in 5 years. Maybe. But by then the cost of making 4680 cells is going to be down to ~$40/ kWh.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Time for some cheerful news.

Picked up a Model 3 today from Hertz at the Atlanta airport for a business trip. Talked to some of the workers there on the Hertz lot, and every last one of them said that the Model 3 is their best renting car and people keep asking for it. The clients love them, "educating" people how to drive them has been easy, and it's rare for anyone to complain about charging. There are quite a few Tesla owners, of course, that rent the cars, but they are seeing a lot of non-owners as well. That's bullish IMO!

I poked around the nav system and interesting given the nav history, the car had been rented out in that Atlanta area since Dec of last year. So go suck on that @GordonJohnson!

Only downside I had was the car I picked up was missing an aero-cover hub cap, and only had 1900 miles on it, so that could be a problem in the future if that is something that frequently needs replacing.

Be careful if you decide to extend the rental. I've been hearing some horror stories about Hertz issuing erroneous stolen car reports, often resulting in arrest warrants for unsuspecting customers.

 

[WADan]

Sorry if this has been posted here before.

The Competitive Weakness of German Automakers Revealed - Fully Charged Show

In his latest blog, Alex Voigt discusses the frailty of German Automakers and how their inherent weakness dooms them to fall behind Tesla.

fullycharged.show

 

[larmor]

tweaks underway to Model S, resulting in some down time...

Tesla reportedly pauses Model S line to make way for updated headlights

Tesla has reportedly paused the Model S line production at the Fremont Factory to work on some slight changes for the flagship full-sized sedan. In December 2021, sightings on public roads hinted that a new Tesla Model S equipped with a new taillight design and revised charging door may be...

www.teslarati.com

Here is another way to say the same headline"
Telsa improves headlights for new year model S

Choice of words has meanings.

 

[Electroman]

“Tesla stops production due to massive quality and safety issues” - Russ scumbag Kolodny

Here is another way to say the same headline"
Telsa improves headlights for new year model S

Choice of words has meanings.

 

[Ogre]

Here is another way to say the same headline"
Telsa improves headlights for new year model S

Choice of words has meanings.

Yes, get rid of the passive vocie.

Also… Am I the only one who thinks a full multi-day shutdown just to swap headlights and taillights is a bit much? Aren’t these things pretty modular already?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yes, get rid of the passive vocie.

Also… Am I the only one who thinks a full multi-day shutdown just to swap headlights and taillights is a bit much? Aren’t these things pretty modular already?

Didn't bother to read this non-story story. Did it happen to coincide with the President's Day statuatory holiday? That's pretty typical for the timing of any minor tweaks to the assembly line, like lighting.

Futher, its only an issue if Model S production is GA constrained, which it currently is not. Its the chips, folks.

Cheers!

 

[dhanson865]

Yes, get rid of the passive vocie.

Also… Am I the only one who thinks a full multi-day shutdown just to swap headlights and taillights is a bit much? Aren’t these things pretty modular already?

Did you miss the part about the charge door? Wouldn't that be a sign of CCS port incoming?

or are we saying it's a cosmetic change to the charge door with nothing behind the door affected?

 

[thesmokingman]

Be careful if you decide to extend the rental. I've been hearing some horror stories about Hertz issuing erroneous stolen car reports, often resulting in arrest warrants for unsuspecting customers.

Yea, that's the thing with Hertz. They have the highest rate for putting their customers behind bars.

 

[Ogre]

Did you miss the part about the charge door? Wouldn't that be a sign of CCS port incoming?

or are we saying it's a cosmetic change to the charge door with nothing behind the door affected?

I don’t think they are putting CCS on USA Teslas are they? That would likely mean phasing out all of the Tesla chargers which… IMO is just a better adaptor.

 

[EVDRVN]

I don’t think they are putting CCS on USA Teslas are they? That would likely mean phasing out all of the Tesla chargers which… IMO is just a better adaptor.

No