Zoom out. Past week Tesla is down ~3%. Nio ~6%. Ford ~9%. GM 7%. Rivian 16% (
). Stellantis ~6%. Extend that to a month and Ford is the only one near Tesla. All are losing, but Tesla has relative strength.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
). Stellantis ~6%. Extend that to a month and Ford is the only one near Tesla. All are losing, but Tesla has relative strength.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I don't mean to be inflammatory, but these are all very canine sentiments if you ask me.
If someone's giving away money, I'm gonna take it. If Ken Griffin gets rich in the bargain and all the other cats lose money, well.......that's their problem.
Didn't this start with you telling me I shouldn't post about max pain? I was just minding my own business waiting for your mom to tell me what to do!
Zoom out. Past week Tesla is down ~3%. Nio ~6%. Ford ~9%. GM 7%. Rivian 16% (
Current cause of inflation is direct correlation to demand destruction for ICE vehicles
Current commodity and supply constraints limit growth and greatly limit potential for profit for newcomer EV makers such as Lucid, Rivian, Nio
It's a joke in this environment that Rivian can have a market cap of 40 billion or that GM can be up 6% in the face of record high gas prices. Every other auto maker, both legacy and newcomer EV, should be down much more than they are relative to TSLA.
I'm not saying the valuations for newcomers isn't absurd... because it is absurd given what they will have to go through to survive. Just saying you can't ignore being strong on other days then when a weaker than Nio day comes along cry foul.
Now with Nio and Chinese makers specifically... they have a decided advantage coming up where they will have access to Russian resources at cheap prices and the market in Europe should grow for them significantly. Nio and Xpeng have a real opportunity here that others don't. That is what the market is looking at with them. On the others, we are seeing a bounce back after getting beat up. There are always bounces like this.
ICE vehicles have will have some longer term demand problems, but we are not to the tipping point yet... and as we've seen, sometimes it is more profitable to be smaller. Which ROI is really what investors want. If Ford or GM can make the same money at 1/3 the production, the market will value them appropriately.
... And how did Tesla know to secure vast amounts of Nickel in advance? Easy, because they knew they were going to cause the constraint in the first place, and basically why they split it into Iron based vs Nickel as the insane battery needs were in plain sight. It should have been a sign for anyone in the EV business, maybe some caught on since that battery day public reveal.
Ford executive Bob Holycross says U.S. at āinflection point' for electric vehicles
Bob Holycross told members of a subcommittee within the House Energy and Commerce Committee that Ford is "doing its part" to transition its workers, manufacturing plants and supply chains to an EV future.
www.autonews.com
He's advocating that the US needs to 'act fast'. Quite the leader, maybe he needs to go meet with the Bob's
That was a wonderful comment at many levels.
Best Example is VW. Up 13.5% currently on news that they cannot produce the Porsche Taycan and halted everything else on the MEB-Platform due to Supply-Chain being in Ukraine.
BMW & Mercedes also up 8.5% both .. due to gas-prices hitting 2.1ā¬ per litre super & 2.4ā¬ per litre diesel (The first time i see Diesel ABOVE Super ... wtf?)
So it is only natural that Tesla is only up 3% because they don't use petrol in their cars ..
Tl;dr: This market makes NO sense whatsoever. If it would make sense you could earn money with common sense ..
larmor
Active Member
Makes complete sense, by not making the Taycan, they are saving money as they likely lose money on each sale, not having any 'recalls' (acutal not OTA updates), or putting out fires, literally.Best Example is VW. Up 13.5% currently on news that they cannot produce the Porsche Taycan and halted everything else on the MEB-Platform due to Supply-Chain being in Ukraine.
BMW & Mercedes also up 8.5% both .. due to gas-prices hitting 2.1ā¬ per litre super & 2.4ā¬ per litre diesel (The first time i see Diesel ABOVE Super ... wtf?)
So it is only natural that Tesla is only up 3% because they don't use petrol in their cars ..
Tl;dr: This market makes NO sense whatsoever. If it would make sense you could earn money with common sense ..
I said today was going to be a disappointing day judging based on AH action. Hey at least we are not red but if there's a last minute sell off where QQQ's gain is cut in half, you can bet every dollar we will 4x that sell off real quick.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Not a comment about this particular situation -- just that this reminds me of Tesla FUD back in the '13 - '15 era roughly. People that obviously knew better, but had an axe to grind, would take Tesla's losses / year, divide by cars delivered, and show how much $$ Tesla was losing on each car delivered. THeir conclusion of course was that Tesla should cut losses while they could and stop making cars.
When each car was actually gross margin positive and looking better and better. Just that the investments to made the bottom line negative. Cash flow positive, negative GAAP earnings. There are very good reasons for the existence of GAAP earnings - there are also good reasons to understand why they exist and how to make adjustments in order to have one of many accurate accounting views into a business, as well as understanding which one to select and why
My how far we've come!
Specific to this situation I'm confident that VW is making money once carbon and other compliance is factored in. EU carbon standards are ramping aggressively and meeting them is going to get harder and harder for those using hybrids to get there.
I wonder how GM is cutting costs in their manufacturing processes and designs? Do we have any updates from Mary? All I could find was this from Sept 2019.
www.caranddriver.com
- General Motors has been promising major increases in its electric-vehicle lineup, even though the company reportedly loses up to $9000 on every Bolt EV it sells.
GM CEO Mary Barra Says Company Aims to Sell 1 Million EVs a Year
Barra believes General Motors can expand beyond the Chevy Bolt to a full, big-selling EV lineup.
Not sure exactly what you're talking about in AH yesterday since everything was down the same amount in after hours. Practically all mega cap tech stocks were.
Even though TSLA isn't that far off it's high for the day, it's gotten weaker and weaker as trading has gone on. Same trading action we've seen nonstop for weeks. Anytime it gets reaches that major downtrend line which is 855 today, volume completely disappears.
Seems very obvious there's a coordinated effort to make sure TSLA doesn't break out above the downtrend line. I think it's pretty much 99% odds they ride it down on the downtrend until a specific event or data(P/D numbers, earnings) force the issue.
I'd like to think Feb 23rd set the low and that we're now in a wedge between the downtrend line and uptrend line from the 23rd with a breakout either on March 22nd or the week before Q1 P/D numbers (last week of March)
Looking at Tesla, have to say our volatility is much lower than all the stocks high flying today. We don't talk much about other stocks but since this war, value stocks have been seeing double digit percentage dumps on those massive red days and today we see double digit gains. Tesla is almost Apple like where it's just chilling the last few days.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Wouldn't reaching a major resistance and seeing volume disappear be the opposite of a controlled manipulation / walk down? It's not like the manipulators can remove volume from the market - they can only manufacture volume and shares (and other activities) to walk the share price down.
Agree on the idea of a coordinated effort. Or at least several players rowing the same way, even if not to the same metronome. There are also CPI / inflation numbers tomorrow that I expect has traders positioning themselves for, and buying at a higher share price given recent inflation numbers and the market reaction seems contra-indicated.
EDIT to add: PPI is next week, March 15.
That figure if from a May 2017 UBS teardown. Let's hope they've found cost savings since then, but since the BBB hasn't been passed, GM has realized that they can't make money until that is passed as there is simply zero demand at a profitable price and thus doesn't have any incentive to make more of a negative profit vehicle.I wonder how GM is cutting costs in their manufacturing processes and designs? Do we have any updates from Mary? All I could find was this from Sept 2019.
Other than the Fiat 500e admissions of losses, I don't think anyone wants to share these numbers to it's shareholders. Diess came clean at one point, lost his post, and back again as I recall. Tough pill I'm sure.
- General Motors has been promising major increases in its electric-vehicle lineup, even though the company reportedly loses up to $9000 on every Bolt EV it sells.
GM CEO Mary Barra Says Company Aims to Sell 1 Million EVs a Year
Barra believes General Motors can expand beyond the Chevy Bolt to a full, big-selling EV lineup.
No it's actually pretty bearish. You want to see a stock approach major resistance with heavy volume and push through. If it loses volume as it approaches the major resistance, then it's telling you that Wall St expects it to go back down and the buying volume dries up. Combine that with other negative forces being applied (MM's who are trying to hit 840 for max pain + bears/shorts that want to get TSLA back under it's 200 day average) it makes it super easy to cap any potential rise above major resistance.
I think the dynamic at play for weeks now is a push up to major resistance, once buyers see that MM's are stepping in to cap or that the stock loses volume, they just continue to sit on the sidelines, or they actively try to trade and ride the stock back down.
I would assume the dynamic today, as @Singuy pointed out, was to limit TSLA right from the start so it couldn't perform to it's usual beta of 2X the macro's. Then it's been about capping right at that downtrend line. I assume they're doing this in hope that the CPI number comes in worse than expected and they can then ride the stock back down. If the CPI number comes in better than expected........man the stock could rip.
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StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Best Example is VW. Up 13.5% currently on news that they cannot produce the Porsche Taycan and halted everything else on the MEB-Platform due to Supply-Chain being in Ukraine.
BMW & Mercedes also up 8.5% both .. due to gas-prices hitting 2.1ā¬ per litre super & 2.4ā¬ per litre diesel (The first time i see Diesel ABOVE Super ... wtf?)
So it is only natural that Tesla is only up 3% because they don't use petrol in their cars ..
Tl;dr: This market makes NO sense whatsoever. If it would make sense you could earn money with common sense ..
The markets have not made the kind of sense you are describing at least since I first started participating in them in them over 30 years ago. That's why it makes no sense to play them as if they make sense. It's a game Wall Street tells the people so they have more opportunity to take your money. It's the entire purpose of the financial media, to make you think you have a news-driven way to play the market based on developing stories and trends.
All that means for TSLA is that our time to shine will probably be when it's least expected. When a stock that wants to float has been held underwater this long, it will rise suddenly, without warning, perhaps even on the heels of bad news. Predicting exactly when it will happen is a fool's game. My sense is it's already started to happen but the negative pressure is being maintained, even in the face of increasing demand for shares. So maybe the manipulators are hoping for one more opportunity to slam it. Or maybe they will give up in the face of increasing difficulty of keeping buyers away. I don't know and neither do the manipulators, they play it day by day, out of necessity. I ceased worrying about it decades ago and it has improved the quality of my life immeasurably while delivering superior returns.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Can we please settle the Max Pain debate with science?
Hypothesis: TSLA tends toward the MP price because of successful manipulation by conspiratorial Market Makers
Basic Initial Test: Find historical data on MP prices and TSLA prices since Tesla IPO and check whether a significant and substantial statistical correlation exists
If someone's already done this, I'd appreciate a link to the analysis. If not, how about we cease the discussion about MP in this already-cluttered thread until it's proven that it's more than confirmation bias leading us to finding patterns in random noise?
Hypothesis: TSLA tends toward the MP price because of successful manipulation by conspiratorial Market Makers
Basic Initial Test: Find historical data on MP prices and TSLA prices since Tesla IPO and check whether a significant and substantial statistical correlation exists
If someone's already done this, I'd appreciate a link to the analysis. If not, how about we cease the discussion about MP in this already-cluttered thread until it's proven that it's more than confirmation bias leading us to finding patterns in random noise?
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