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Earnings day yall
🥳

Woot!

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It would only make sense if they could improve upon them, or, if there were a significant enough problem sourcing them for building factories.

So far, so good. So, unlikely I'd say.
Looking at the KUKA video it seems very likely that they could do with some really good robots to help with high precision tasks. How much productivity gain?, how much more precision?, how much cost reduction? are all questions. Then there is the entire installation and implementation process. It is logically think those are suboptimal also, based solely on all the hand assembly. Is Optimus really limited to just the humanoid vision? We already are quite aware that from the paint shop to 4680 production, Gigacasting and change management. Tesla si in another world than almost everyone else.

I have called the "machine that builds the machine" the 'factory OS'. Somewhere I read that, but recently I was thought to be perhaps inappropriate in that nomenclature. I do not think so. The very rapid iteration in vehicle parts (e.g. quick adaptability to new and different chip supplies, implementation of a gigacasting in a pre-existing production line). These changes in the midst of a regular continuous improvement in assembly line operation, components etc is proof of a highly configurable factory operating system that allows coordination among disparate individual factories that are in distinctly different places in model evolution.

Anybody who's seen traditional auto factories and then has seen Shanghai, Grüneheide or Austin can readily observe that these are unlike other auto factories. Visits to Fremont in gaps of a year or so shows how much that ancient and antiquated factory has changed, constantly prototyping things that end out being danced enormously in purpose-built factories. Skipping specific models, the introduction of gigacasting, 4680 and countless robotic evolutionary steps all happened in Fremont.

Just reflecting on all that, I think it is unwise to assume anything is "unlikely" if that thing can yield higher quality, reduced cost, increased efficiency, reduced complexity or any combination of those, that thing will find a way to happen.

Four 'impossibilities' that are now in production:
-gigacasting,
-structural battery pack,
-4680,
-the new paint shop

I have given up saying 'unlikely' and started thinking about 'when'.

After PayPal, SpaceX and Tesla one really must be a hard core pessimist to think a given thing is 'unlikely'.

So, timing. I don't have too many clues, but we luckily have some very good forecasters with us.
Once the markets close in the US today we'll know how well their prognostications are in the very short term.
 
There is a thread on this that shows the commercial... somebody please tell me the vids are set up

All the videos are real in that they actually happened-- though many are from old (VERY old in a few clips) versions of the software.

There's at last report 100k people in the beta, and it's still not ready for wide release, so it's unsurprising you can find some videos where it's doing the wrong thing- that's why it's not in wide release after all. But of course with 100k people and a program running since 2020- that one clip of it tapping a parking pylon is the only documented case of anybody actually hitting anything I'm aware of ever happening. (there was also one NHTSA anonymous report filed of it hitting a car months ago, but no follow-up evidence ever appeared which it certainly would have if it had actually happened)

The guy who posted the video has been doing this anti-FSD axe grinding, and dumping a lot of $ into it, for a while now as linked by Thekiwis post.

If you're curious about the current state of the beta and experiences of those on it, lots of discussion about it in various threads here:
 
After an in-depth analysis including tens of spreadsheets (too advanced to share) and advanced fractal calculations, I estimate a non-GAAP EPS of $2.80.

Plz add.
Pretty lame. My transformers based deep learning model that needs a 256 qubit quantum computer to run, is predicting 2.81.

But it's not telling me whether it's gaap or non-gaap .
 
Happy 420 Earnings Day, all. I haven’t posted in a while, but I did contribute to Q1 numbers, especially ASP and margin, with delivery of my MX Plaid.

I’m just back from a 5000+ mile road trip to break her in, touring 22 states and hitting Austin for the Giga Texas opening (Boston --> Austin). While I didn't make it inside for the party, the tailgate outside and light show/fireworks over the mind-numbingly huge factory were pretty killer.

The Austin Tesla Owner's Club did an amazing job organizing events and creating the right vibe. TeslaCon the next day was also surprisingly cool. I think it was all livestreamed, and nothing particularly new was shared, but it was interesting to see all the regular Youtubers live. Sandy was fun, Gali got through his 40 slide deck in 3 minutes, and Ross Gerber was very good, and obviously a more professional speaker than the 'tubers.

The rest of my safari was spent watching the countryside go by as my car drove me around. Almost all my charging was at Superchargers, and only once did I have to wait. Lots of good chats with folks while charging, as per usual. It was a pretty smooth tour, with the maintenance amounting to adding windshield wiper fluid.

I didn't need my conviction in TSLA propped up, but if I did, seeing Giga Texas, talking to employees there (and in surrounding bars and breweries), and basking in the Tesla-ness would have done the trick.

And the car. I have no adequate superlatives. I think it is the best car. One telling factor is that my father (age 75), and daughter (15) both won't stop talking about it -- and we've had a MY for 18 months, so Teslas are nothing new.

So I'm ready for ER like Elon on a podcast. Whether we get some clarity on Q2 guidance regarding Shanghai and the stock can continue to advance, or, more likely, nothing is said and it sells off despite and earnings beat, this year is going to end spectacularly, so keep your eyes on the 2M+ annualized production rate prize Tesla will have entering 2023.

Thank you to Team Tesla, the awesome folks in the Austin owner's group, and to me for being smart enough to invest in TSLA and buy their products. LFG!

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