Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[willow_hiller]

The rest of the industry sure thinks every single square inch of roads are edge cases, that's why they HD map them.

They HD map them, and then systematically avoid them because their systems struggle to handle them as well. If you need to be picked up or dropped off on a road with a difficult situation, you're out of luck.

I think it's important to remember that Tesla is attempting a generalized solution that will show its faults upfront, but will scale more rapidly than the services that require detailed labeling of maps by humans.

 

[insaneoctane]

I don't know how other manufacturers can offer EVs for anything except relatively local commuting without something similar to the Supercharger network. This Memorial weekend I drove 8+ hours to Lake Tahoe. It was a delight. I can't fathom making that trip in any other EV besides a Tesla.

 

[Usain]

So they spend a few weeks assembling this. Demo it in June for their big event. Spend a few weeks tearing it down. Likely tear down is complete by mid-late July. Air ship it to Texas, then spend August -> September reassembling it. That leaves 2-3 months for testing and beta production? So we could see start of production in early 2023.

Edit: This also makes a Fall 2023 launch unlikely. Tesla doesn't buy equipment like this and let it rust for 9 months.

Does this thing travel by air or by boat?

 

[JustMe]

These points are actually evidence based, logical thinking with historical precedent. The "existential" crisis has been complete BS for at least 50 years. Pathetic track record of dire predictions.

Everything opposite of these points are just a cultish/religious type stance. How dare we question "the science" says the holy with their righteous anger? How dare we...

Explaining my Disagree

First, every poster should be aware that this forum is populated by serious experts in an incredibly broad range of disciplines. Consider this before posting options built from Facebook level “data” as facts. It’s often said that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. Read up on the Dunning-Kruger effect.

Full disclosure- I hold a PhD in physics. I’m certain there are many other PhDs here in all kinds of areas.

What you said - “How dare we question the science” is wrong on two counts.

First, climate change denialism as expressed in this thread today was not presented as “questioning” or reasoned debate - no facts or evidence were presented, no scientific papers cited. Only opinions presented as facts. “There is no tipping point” This, to me, screams ignorance of well established science.

Second, “questioning” scientific theories is literally the life’s work of every scientist in the world. The greatest scientific impacts come from overturning accepted scientific models with new compelling evidence or transformational thinking. There are undoubtedly thousands of scientists worldwide testing every aspect of climate change science and data.

The evidence for alarmingly rapid climate change is overwhelming, from many different kinds of studies worldwide. The fact that the overwhelming majority of scientists have come to this conclusion underscores how strong the evidence is.

Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk

 

[Nocturnal]

In fact, soon after the Democrats took over in 2021, this actually happened. Dragged 'em before Congress.

Am I the only one who remembers this? Please let us not have memories < 2 years long!

NBC news link from 2021

TL;DR:

I actually don't recall much from that. So obviously it was all for show and nothing actually came of it. Makes perfect sense.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Wednesday could prove to be challenging for stocks. Bank of Canada's decision to increase rates will put pressure on Bank of US to follow suit. Free money is coming to a close.

"The Bank of Canada is expected by economists to raise its key interest rate target by half a percentage point to 1.5 per cent in its decision Wednesday in an effort to slow inflation which is running at its hottest pace in three decades.

The annual inflation rate hit 6.8 per cent in April, its highest level since January 1991, while the Bank of Canada has a target of two per cent for the annual rate.

The central bank, which slashed interest rates at the start of the pandemic, began raising its key rate earlier this year with a quarter-point hike in March and another half a percentage point in April."

Bank of Canada on track for rate hike after GDP growth slows: economists

Economists say the Bank of Canada is still on track for another oversized rate hike on Wednesday after the latest Statistics Canada data showed the pace of economic growth slowed in the first quarter.

www.ctvnews.ca

The media will continue to push its shananagins on all things Tesla and Elon. They have until early October when Production and Delivery numbers come out for Q3 2022. Until then expect the noise, raging like a Ferrari or Ford Mustang Cobra. Thereafter expect silence like a Tesla. For those who do good, it all works out in the end. Believe.

 

[Ogre]

Does this thing travel by air or by boat?

Probably boat.

But my guess about disassembly time and assembly was off.

According to IDRA, it takes 2 weeks to disassemble and crate a completed gigapress, 4 weeks to transport, and a month to assemble.

So my shipping time was too short, but disassembly and assembly times were too long. End result is Gigapress could be in Texas and shooting out Cyber-rear-ends by September.

 

[ZachF]

Yes, yes, yes!!!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1531730381187301378

Y E S ! !

 

[2daMoon]

Lars offers some clarity to the concepts of EPS and PE ratio, and discussion on the difference between a disruptive technology company and legacy OEM auto companies. Lots of good info here to share with those on the Tesla/TSLA learning curve.

 

[Usain]

How many points do you get?

Sorry. Tasteless humor. Special apology to Gigapress.

 

[Discoducky]

Y E S ! !

I'm so excited as I've had to defend against FUD that Tesla is or has paused progress on CT due to issues with 4680s. The gigapress progress authentication by Elon demonstrates that it is on track for early Q1 ramp.... possibly earlier if no other critical path items gate key milestones....yes, I used to be a technical product manager and yes, I've been watching closely for 4680s to get into new Model Y customer hands...which is the biggest milestone for...well... sustainable energy.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Spiking temperatures could cause more blackouts this summer. They won't be the last.

This summer’s anticipated tight grid conditions are just the tip of the iceberg as weather grows increasingly unpredictable and the U.S. aims to electrify more high-emitting sectors of the economy.

www.politico.com

I'm genuinely curious what measures are in place in Fremont and Austin to ensure that production is not interrupted by upcoming large scale power cuts which are anticipated this summer.

 

[navguy12]

@AndrewZ Quick question, are you even invested in TSLA?

Forgive me if I misinterpreting, but it would seem you created this account last week to start posting a bunch of complaints about Tesla's prices, subpar quality and luxury, and disastrous FSD Beta program that's no better than ADAS from Comma.AI or Genesis.

Not sure if it's just a coincidence...but it seems like your account was created at the same time TSLA hit the $600s while a few trolls arrived here, and in this time you haven't posted a single positive comment.

I'm very interested to learn more of your enlightened thinking on how our customers are getting "boned" with our "ridiculously overpriced" vehicles. They must be pretty stupid to keep getting tricked like that and wait 12 months in line for the privilege. As an investor I'm really glad we have such a huge supply of suckers to screw over, and luckily they keep inviting all their friends and family to get boned too. Many of us here have been boned by Tesla as well, some of us multiple times and our spouses too.

Hopefully soon we can start tricking people even more with ads, like Hyundai, Kia, Mercedes and GM do. We might need it once customers realize how much better the leather stitching is in the EQS than in a Model Y, or worse if they see how snazzy the giant grill looks on the Lyric.

My TM3 turns four years old tomorrow. I’m even more satisfied with the product than the day I took delivery. I’ve never (ever) experienced this with any other product. YMMV.

 

[Stretch2727]

Probably boat.

But my guess about disassembly time and assembly was off.

According to IDRA, it takes 2 weeks to disassemble and crate a completed gigapress, 4 weeks to transport, and a month to assemble.

So my shipping time was too short, but disassembly and assembly times were too long. End result is Gigapress could be in Texas and shooting out Cyber-rear-ends by September.

Not following the Gigapress closely but most likely Tesla will run some design/production validation parts in Italy prior to shipment to Texas. This is based on my manufacturing engineering experience when buying large equipment. Usually easier to trouble shoot at the supplier and any machine fixes manufactured during the shipment for implementation in TX. I am assuming the tooling is ready and can be shipped to Italy.

 

[Paul_SF]

Tesla app can evolve into a super app?

 

[bkp_duke]

Spiking temperatures could cause more blackouts this summer. They won't be the last.

This summer’s anticipated tight grid conditions are just the tip of the iceberg as weather grows increasingly unpredictable and the U.S. aims to electrify more high-emitting sectors of the economy.

www.politico.com

I'm genuinely curious what measures are in place in Fremont and Austin to ensure that production is not interrupted by upcoming large scale power cuts which are anticipated this summer.

The roof on GigaTexas is getting rapidly populated with solar, and a megapack station is planned to start construction next door just north of the factory. The goal is not only to be self-sufficient, but to be a local power producer for export.

 

[ZachF]

So as far as I can tell, the record for a company’s revenue as a share of global GDP is GM in the 1950s, at a little over 1% of world GDP. Today, Walmart and Amazon are around 0.5%… will Tesla beat this some day?

Doing this by 2040 would probably require around $4 trillion in revenue. Elon is talking about scale never seen before…

(Edit - also note, 20% profit margin on $4T is $800b, and 20x PE is $16T market cap… assuming shares decrease because of buybacks from ~2027 onwards that’s a ~$20k SP. US GDP will probably be +/- $100T in 2040.)

 

[ZachF]

The roof on GigaTexas is getting rapidly populated with solar, and a megapack station is planned to start construction next door just north of the factory. The goal is not only to be self-sufficient, but to be a local power producer for export.

They should build trusses over the parking lots and cover those too.

 

[ggr]

Mod: It seems to have petered out anyway, but for the record, there shall be no more discussion of "what happens if Elon dies or is murdered?". There is no point discussing hypotheticals without cause. --ggr

 

[nativewolf]

I'm so excited as I've had to defend against FUD that Tesla is or has paused progress on CT due to issues with 4680s. The gigapress progress authentication by Elon demonstrates that it is on track for early Q1 ramp.... possibly earlier if no other critical path items gate key milestones....yes, I used to be a technical product manager and yes, I've been watching closely for 4680s to get into new Model Y customer hands...which is the biggest milestone for...well... sustainable energy.

It seems to be the holdup and in the earnings call in January they said it would be the holdup for 2023. I have tempered my expectations of getting a CT before 2025.