Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[heltok]

Production and Delivery

This has been a very tough quarter, primarily due to supply chain and production challenges in China, so we need to rally hard to recover!

I’d like to congratulate the Fremont team for achieving a new all-time record production day last week and Berlin for making almost 1000 cars last week! This is great stuff.

Shanghai is returning to full strength and Austin is spooling up. Onward to victory!

Elon

I assume spooling was used deliberatly, anyone fluent In aspie-language can confirm that aspies loves these wordplays. What products spools up? 4680…

 

[dhanson865]

Powerwall + Starlink saving the day again like it's nothing.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Starlink/comments/vb0h7g

Spoiler: for those that don't reddit

All my neighbours have been without power, phone and internet for 2 days following severe windstorms in Tasmania, Australia. We are still powered with phone and internet uninterrupted thanks to Starlink and a Powerwall. Wife is very impressed.

 

[MC3OZ]

As stated in the earnings call they are taking their time with the 4680 ramp at Austin to get everything as right as possible.

While it has never been explicitly stated, we may find that DBE needs to be 4680, or a wider diameter. This comment is based on cracking issues Maxwell long ago, and might be out of date.

They seem to have sufficient 2170 packs, or can swap in LFP packs from China to free up 2170s as needed.

The Model Y vehicle production line and the 4680 cell ramp are 2 different ramps, the chances of them being in perfect sync are low.

To make 4680s at Austin Tesla needs the raw materials, I think the cathode plant is important, and getting raw materials in perfect sync with the production ramp is another challenge.

For 2170s, the raw materials were sourced long ago and probably on long term contracts, and keeping going at the same rate is different to ramping.
Chinese LFP is ramping but BYD and CATL have been sourcing raw materials for some time.

The aim is to make as many Model Ys as possible.

My wife ordered her Model Y on Saturday, it probably has a Chinese LFP pack, Except for the very occasional extra charge on road trips it will not make any difference to how she uses the car. The slowest Tesla is fast enough for most people, EVs leave ICE standing for uphill acceleration, or instant response when overtaking.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Dillon from the Electrified youtube channel has some insider info:

1. Tesla is currently manufacturing one million 4680 cells per month

This was Kato Rd production output in Jan and later had a 92% yield in Feb. Surprised that 4680 production ramp was flat since.
Then this comment was read directly: "Tesla is indeed ramping this quickly, so this figure could be outdated within a few weeks."

My take is that there was a capacity timing mismatch causing a battery gap (which could also occur should the vehicles ramp faster than expected). This stuff's common in factory ramps, and it's more like stair steps in reality. Watch, in 2 weeks, run rate 2X in Tx, wouldn't be surprised. Also 2 weeks is about when new FSD comes out followed by Q2 delivery numbers. I expect shorting to increase on this news, but watch for the burn.

 

[insaneoctane]

…
No idea on the dry/wet. I am probably mistaken - I thought all 4680s would be the same.

Does anyone here have a good understanding of which elements of the technology that Tesla revealed on battery day that Tesla is allowing "others" to use? Specifically the DBE process element is a gray area for me...I mean Tesla had to purchase Maxwell technology to get DBE, so are they really allowing use of that royalty free?

Seems Panasonic could make 4680 form-fit-functional batteries using the traditional wet electrode process with less risk, but ultimately higher cost and real estate.

Tesla encouraged battery manufacturer's to make more batteries on battery day, I'm just not clear what was free/open vs royalty based and would appreciate other's views.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Does anyone here have a good understanding of which elements of the technology that Tesla revealed on battery day that Tesla is allowing "others" to use? Specifically the DBE process element is a gray area for me...I mean Tesla had to purchase Maxwell technology to get DBE, so are they really allowing use of that royalty free?

Seems Panasonic could make 4680 form-fit-functional batteries using the traditional wet electrode process with less risk, but ultimately higher cost and real estate.

Tesla encouraged battery manufacturer's to make more batteries on battery day, I'm just not clear what was free/open vs royalty based and would appreciate other's views.

Is there a wet 4680? How are the ends "folded" then? And if tabbed, wouldn't they overheat?
This bottleneck news feels like a distraction, just sayin'.

 

[Buckminster]

Battery threads:
4680 General discussion - Range & $/kWh
4680 Cathode & Anode discussion for investors
4680 cell design, chassis integration & factory discussion for investors

 

[Matt Porter]

Supply vs Demand: Tesla vs EV Competitors:

Interesting stat from Octopus EV on customer enquiries vs actual deliveries in the UK (they lease EVs).

1Q 2021 Model 3 was 40% of enquiries, dropped by 4Q 2021 to only 10% of enquiries. But still held at 50% of deliveries since competitors don't have the supply.
1Q '22 enquiries dropped to 4th place; with Model Y, Polestar and MG ZS.

Link

@ 13:55

 

[nativewolf]

An issue that doesn't exist besides some rehash rumors from "sources". None of these concerns were expressed during the conference call. "Cybertruck is on track for production next year" said by Elon. "Gigatexas is spooling up" said by Elon via email today. 2170 line going into Gigatexas from that same earnings call because they have too many batteries and they want to make LR AWDs as it's very popular.

But hey if you think Texas is only capable of making 40 cars a day, and constantly have 7 days worth of production sitting in their logistic lot from every fly over then sure....

No I think Tesla is pretty agile and they are retrofitting in a 2170 line because they can make far more cars than Kato and Austin can make battery cells. That speaks well of Tesla being agile, it doesn't speak well of the ramp on the 4680 lines. Tesla has proven to be amazingly agile and by far the leader in the industry in responding to the supply chain challenges of the last 2 years. That they'd build Austin and not be able to supply the appropriate battery cells means one of two things...they built it faster than planned (but they built shanghai faster) or they can't get the 4680 lines going at scale.
The good news is that they have a plan to get battery packs into the Austin vehicles. The bad news is that they are not 4680s.

Unlike most here it doesn't impact my stock portfolio, I have none in any company other than our sustainable forestry business. We are growing and need company vehicles. Really need them. We had been planning, since the announcement, on getting CTs (3). A CT actually is the perfect vehicle for what we do. 30k miles a year, lots of dings and scraps, need real offroad capability. Trucks look like hell in 10 years and have 300k miles and suspensions that need work. Heck we'd buy a ford lightening if they were available. Rivians are just "cute" not enough truck. We go through 2000 gallons of diesel a year in our F350, replacing with a CT actually makes financial sense. For that we need to see a massive supply of 4680. It's a bad kind of slow and that is going to push the CT out another year and I guess I'm venting here, it has just sunk in that we'll waste of ton of money on some piss pour alternative.

 

[nativewolf]

That falling out was purely about money. Panasonic wanted a deeper cut and was willing to bottleneck cell production for some sort of negotiation leverage.

Didn't work out so hot.

Short term for Pano it was by far and away the right decision. The world is battery constrained, I am sure that every cell they make is sold and not at a discount but at whatever price Tesla didn't want to pay. Longer term..we'll see. I'm beginning to think that Pano will be producing real volume 4680 not much later than Tesla. Long long term I think Tesla is going to be one of the largest EV firms so a rupture would be problematic for Pano.

 

[nativewolf]

I hope you are right, but there is little evidence of this.

• Panasonic publicly stated that their 4680 production is proving challenging and they are still a year away from the production dates as yet.
• If Austin is going to re-tool for 2170 cell production so quickly after opening the new factory, it suggests that they are acknowledging that this will be a longer term problem to solve

I would say they were optimistic when they put the 4680 lines in Austin that the production ramp would be sorting itself out. I think instead it is more likely that the 4680s scale is > 1 year away and we should take that into account in our models.

Not all is lost of course - installing the 2170 battery lines should be relatively straightforward and then allow Austin to start ramping up. I'd guess that is 3+ months out though.

A large disappointment, but not the end of the world.

Tesla has been amazing to watch as it addresses supply chain issues. So they'll make the cars...they just won't be the CT I need. Sigh

 

[cliff harris]

Supply vs Demand: Tesla vs EV Competitors:

Interesting stat from Octopus EV on customer enquiries vs actual deliveries in the UK (they lease EVs).

1Q 2021 Model 3 was 40% of enquiries, dropped by 4Q 2021 to only 10% of enquiries. But still held at 50% of deliveries since competitors don't have the supply.
1Q '22 enquiries dropped to 4th place; with Model Y, Polestar and MG ZS.

Link

@ 13:55

Its worth pointing out to non-UK posters here, that the UK market is very different to the US. Our roads are MUCH narrower, and our average car size is much smaller. When my wife first saw a model Y for real she thought it was huge. The X looks like a small bus! my model S is inconveniently long and wide. Even the model 3 is now exactly small for us.
Plus road-trips are way less of a thing, and nobody 'tows their boat' in the way that drivers in the US seem to be doing non-stop. Thus people are not used to investing massive amounts in a car.

So... Tesla is not going to really take off dramatically in the UK until they make a smaller, cheaper car. The model 3 and Y are certainly popular, but if we get a model 2 here, maybe even a 2 door hatchback, with shorter range, lower acceleration but a much lower price, it will sell like crazy. I don't think this is vaguely a problem until Tesla hit 4/5 million cars a year, but I'd hope to see a smaller cheaper Tesla on offer around 2024ish if possible.

 

[Mengy]

Bitcoin is under 24K now and will likely drop even lower today. We're going to have another Bitcoin impairment for Q2.

Man earnings for Q2 is likely going to be a rough one...

 

[Atomsla]

Its worth pointing out to non-UK posters here, that the UK market is very different to the US. Our roads are MUCH narrower, and our average car size is much smaller. When my wife first saw a model Y for real she thought it was huge. The X looks like a small bus! my model S is inconveniently long and wide. Even the model 3 is now exactly small for us.
Plus road-trips are way less of a thing, and nobody 'tows their boat' in the way that drivers in the US seem to be doing non-stop. Thus people are not used to investing massive amounts in a car.

So... Tesla is not going to really take off dramatically in the UK until they make a smaller, cheaper car. The model 3 and Y are certainly popular, but if we get a model 2 here, maybe even a 2 door hatchback, with shorter range, lower acceleration but a much lower price, it will sell like crazy. I don't think this is vaguely a problem until Tesla hit 4/5 million cars a year, but I'd hope to see a smaller cheaper Tesla on offer around 2024ish if possible.

First time I saw a model Y up close at an SC I was surprised at the size too, it seemed way bigger than I expected. My own S doesnt really fit into some tighter parking spots here and finding a parralel parking spot in a busy area for a car this size is tough. So, add the Netherlands to the list of countries where a large part of the populace prefers a smaller (and cheaper) car. Probably goes for most of europe really. I'm sure Tesla will deliver, might take a while though!

 

[Atomsla]

So what happened this weekend to cause the stocks to be miserable again after fridays lovely performance? I think I missed what the panic is about this time. Just the expectation of more interest rate hikes?

 

[Mengy]

So what happened this weekend to cause the stocks to be miserable again after fridays lovely performance? I think I missed what the panic is about this time. Just the expectation of more interest rate hikes?

Nothing that I can find. This market is like a wounded animal, every time it tries to get up it seems to hurt itself further.

(I'm feeling overly dramatic today for some reason...)

 

[lascavarian]

Nothing that I can find. This market is like a wounded animal, every time it tries to get up it seems to hurt itself further.

(I'm feeling overly dramatic today for some reason...)

Every time the Mooch is talking 100k for his scam coins you know things are going to get interesting. CEL coins flushing away It seems. YMMV

 

[ZachF]

Everything’s down like 3-5% in premarket…

 

[ZachF]

So what happened this weekend to cause the stocks to be miserable again after fridays lovely performance? I think I missed what the panic is about this time. Just the expectation of more interest rate hikes?

Yield curve inverted deeply.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536267980538949632

 

[CyberDutchie]

Tesla Stock Drops Despite Stock Split and RBC Upgrade to Outperform By Investing.com

TSLA was somewhat shielded from the plunge last Thursday because of the USB upgrade. I hope today we’ll be saved by this upgrade but premarket so far doesn’t show it