Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

Ok, I'll bite.
tl;dr; Pack and cell are unambiguous, battery can mean either.

A factory that assembles cells (or modules) into packs is indeed a battery factory.
A factory that only combines cells or modules into packs is not a cell factory. This is a clear misnomer.
A factory that manufactures cells can technically also be called a battery factory due to single cell batteries being a thing. However, if the cells are never used singularly as built, then this is really stretching the term.

Spoiler: Long version

First off, the world lost precision when single cells were deemed batteries, but there we are. It's understandable why this happened since a device's singular battery can be discrete cells (AAA for instance), and one typically says "This needs new batteries." Where it really needs "a new battery" or "it needs new cells". However, the ambiguity leads to this 'what type of factory' situation.

A battery is a collection of one or more cells.
AA, AAA, C, D, etc are single cell, as are coin cell batteries (like in hearing aids or Tesla fobs.
A 9 Volt battery is 6 cells in one package.
A 12 V standard car battery is also 6 cells (though a different chemistry).
18650, 2170, 4680 are cell sizes. If a product only uses one, that is a single cell battery.
Some LFP are sourced as multicell battery modules themselves, not discrete cells.
EVs use packs made of multiple cells, thus packs are only multicell batteries, not single cells.

So I have it upside down and the media are correct.

Tesla is working to make cells and batteries. Ford/ GM making batteries.

Thanks I'll try to be better.

 

[Discoducky]

JPMorgan is the largest financer of fossil fuels on the planet. The company was founded and exists primarily to leverage fossil-based scarcity into profits.

Tesla doing well is not in their interest.

Yep, it is blatant and according to them it is simply normal and natural. No tears will be shed if they go down in flames.

'Pouring gasoline on the fire': JPMorgan, Citi and other U.S. banks lead rise in lending to oil and gas: report

JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo and Bank of America in all account for 25% of fossil fuel financing in the last six years, since the Paris climate pact was signed.

www.marketwatch.com

"It’s also true that many major financial institutions have jumped on board a popular pledge for net-zero emissions by 2050, and what their critics argue is largely business-as-usual financing to the fossil fuel industry. "

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I feel like we haven't had a PE post today. Here's one.

TSLA PE was higher Tuesday with SP at $745 than it is right now with SP at $840.

This vibe is what @StarFoxisDown! has been ranting about. 2Q22 wasn't even a good quarter and this is the PE dynamic we find ourselves in. When EPS really starts to blast next quarter, these post-earnings reactions are gonna need to be HUGE just to keep the SP rational based purely on fundamentals.

It's far more likely we shoot higher to create greater uncertainty, for both SP and most importantly the options market.

 

[mongo]

Presumably castings plus higher production volume plus lower cost cells plus more efficient assembly (4680) should be enough.

If starting from scratch, maybe. However, Tesla has a fully built and functioning manufacturing line (presses, dies, body line, GA). It would take a lot of savings over a lot of vehicles to justify scrapping that.

Additionally, there is the general question of addressable market and efficiency. Like Nintendo with the Wii, Tesla may be better off being production limited with a lower shift count than boosting output and potentially ending up with more capacity than demand (along with suppliers). Basically, the next step up in volume may yeild diminishing returns and they are meeting their goals with a saturated, lower volume system.

 

[ZachF]

Why are we basing our assumptions about what the Model S/X could be on "current demand for the existing product"? What would a "first principles" approach to Model S/X look like?

The S&X are halo cars; rolling advertisements.

 

[ZachF]

I feel like we haven't had a PE post today. Here's one.

TSLA PE was higher Tuesday with SP at $745 than it is right now with SP at $840.

This vibe is what @StarFoxisDown! has been ranting about. 2Q22 wasn't even a good quarter and this is the PE dynamic we find ourselves in. When EPS really starts to blast next quarter, these post-earnings reactions are gonna need to be HUGE just to keep the SP rational based purely on fundamentals.

It's far more likely we shoot higher to create greater uncertainty, for both SP and most importantly the options market.

I think we will see EPS over $4 in Q3 and over $5 in Q4.

Sometime next year Tesla will overtake Toyota as the world’s most profitable automaker.

 

[jerry33]

If starting from scratch, maybe. However, Tesla has a fully built and functioning manufacturing line (presses, dies, body line, GA). It would take a lot of savings over a lot of vehicles to justify scrapping that.

Additionally, there is the general question of addressable market and efficiency. Like Nintendo with the Wii, Tesla may be better off being production limited with a lower shift count than boosting output and potentially ending up with more capacity than demand (along with suppliers). Basically, the next step up in volume may yeild diminishing returns and they are meeting their goals with a saturated, lower volume system.

Point taken, but eventually Tesla will drop the smaller cells and do a redesign, probably from scratch. Sure it won’t be in the near future.

 

[NicoV]

Point taken, but eventually Tesla will drop the smaller cells and do a redesign, probably from scratch. Sure it won’t be in the near future.

Given that the Model S and X still use the same cell form factor as a decade ago, with no change in sight, I’d expect they will not do a redesign before the world drowns in batteries.

 

[jhm]

What would you have Tesla remove, or downgrade, on the S&X to drop $20-30k from the price? Would you want a 300 mile range RWD version?

What we are discussing is removing 70% of the robots (and a lot of human labor) that the present Model S/X presently requires. This removes or downgrades nothing in the final product. It reduces cost, not quality.

 

[bkp_duke]

Point taken, but eventually Tesla will drop the smaller cells and do a redesign, probably from scratch. Sure it won’t be in the near future.

Sandy Munro, in his Plaid teardown, did mention that Telsa can get more power out of say 7000 x 18650 cells than they could out of say 1000 x 4680 cells. This does result in a performance benefit for the Plaid. There are some benefits to having many more, but smaller, power units in the battery to pull current from.

From a standpoint of manufacturing efficiency, 18650 is not good compared to the 4680s, but power wise it does have some benefits.

 

[Words of HABIT]

I guess the playahs got back from their Summer vacay and are making up for lost time on TSLA.

This is real. Word on the street is that the top brokers go on vacation to the Hamptons or the like, and the underlings left behind at the brokerage are permitted only to sell but not to buy, until the hot shots return. Hence the "sell in May and go away" mantra.
Some of these hot shots are cutting their vacation plans short to get a shot at TSLA.

 

[jhm]

The S&X are halo cars; rolling advertisements.

Why do we think Tesla needs to advertise?

 

[GOVA]

Now it's time for some revenge hitpieces from:

...
- LA Times: "Autopilot should be banned from public roads" says software-expert Dan O'Clown
..

.... ....

O'Simulation confirmed.

 

[MP3Mike]

What we are discussing is removing 70% of the robots (and a lot of human labor) that the present Model S/X presently requires. This removes or downgrades nothing in the final product. It reduces cost, not quality.

You are dreaming if you think that is going to reduce the cost by 20-30%. For starters the robots have already been purchased, so you would only be creating expense by removing them. And then if you plan on increasing production quantity you have to redesign the pack, either with with fewer 18650s, and less range, or to use 2170 or 4680 cells. 4680 cells aren't available, and won't have an excess supply for years, so that is out... So that leaves using 2170s, which means you would have to rob cells from the 3/Y lines.

It just isn't going to happen. Elon has said repeatedly that the only reason they keep the S&X around is for sentimental reasons, they have no plans, or desire, to make them high volume vehicles.

Why do we think Tesla needs to advertise?

They don't, and part of the reason for that is the halo effect of the Model S and Model X.

 

[Don TLR]

Looks like we’re in for another ride in the Tesla Fast Lane
You know you’re influential when they create a lane just for you at the border.

 

[ThisStockGood]

Why do we think Tesla needs to advertise?

They don’t need to. But free advertising is good.

 

[MadScientist23]

Why are we basing our assumptions about what the Model S/X could be on "current demand for the existing product"? What would a "first principles" approach to Model S/X look like?

I don't see a mod of the S/X done at this point, they are serving their purpose and the roadster is the intended super fast car for the future. I see the S/X being replaced by the "CyberVan" or some form of the Cybertruck that fits more into the SUV category. It only makes sense that they're developing the manufacturing method for the CT and applying that to an SUV is the most economical and manufacturing sense.

 

[mongo]

Sandy Munro, in his Plaid teardown, did mention that Telsa can get more power out of say 7000 x 18650 cells than they could out of say 1000 x 4680 cells. This does result in a performance benefit for the Plaid. There are some benefits to having many more, but smaller, power units in the battery to pull current from.

From a standpoint of manufacturing efficiency, 18650 is not good compared to the 4680s, but power wise it does have some benefits.

He's wrong. Unless you specify the Ah of each cell, the comparison is impossible. Even then, cooling or internal structure could be the limiting factor not C rate.
Plaid has a higher voltage more kWh pack along with higher power motors and improved cooling.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Looks like we’re in for another ride in the Tesla Fast Lane
You know your influential when they create a lane just for you at the border.
View attachment 831447

I’m waiting to see an unending caravan of self-driving Tesla Semis hauling components to Austin.

 

[Mengy]

I have to say, with most of the market deep red today TSLA is performing very, very well. I'm truly surprised how well it's holding up.