Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Blue horseshoe]

I and many others respect you both; please take this to DMs

 

[ktrivedi70]

Sometime next year Tesla will overtake Toyota as the world’s most profitable automaker.

With less than 1/5 of the number of cars Toyota sells. Amazing.

edit- extrapolated out to 2023 volumes

 

[StealthP3D]

The current Lightning is a stop-gap vehicle based on the gas F-150 they decided to sell until they have a new one designed from the start as an EV, to be on the market about 2025. Their plan might be to use LFP in the new one.

Ford introduced the electric F-150 at SEMA 2008. I would think 14 years would be enough time to design an electric F-150 from the ground up.

600 HP Electric Ford F150 to Makes Its Debut at SEMA - Auto News - Truck Trend

Get the latest auto news from the truck and SUV experts at Truck Trend: The Hi-Pa all-electric Ford F-150, which uses four electric in-wheel motors rather than an engine and drivetrain, will make its debut at the 2008 SEMA Show.

www.motortrend.com

 

[X Fan]

If R&D expenses stay low (like Q2 and it should as they have "no breakthroughs needed" for scaling 4680 and Elon reiterated high confidence in FSD full scale beta by end of year) and ASP continues to rise and factories are full steam will see auto gross margins improve so thinking we do 400k to 450k production in Q3 (remember Q4 2021 production was 305k so expecting the Shanghai 'death star to be fully operational' shouldn't be out of the question).

So more like $5 in Q3 and it is hard to even predict Q4 due to the ramp of 4680s, but could be $6 to $8.

The thing that blows my mind is the "no breakthroughs needed". From an engineering perspective, that has always (ALWAYS) been the bottleneck (the relentless pursuit of manufacturing "takt" time has been the ultimate goal and the light at the end of the tunnel is very bright.)

"So more like $5 in Q3 and it is hard to even predict Q4 due to the ramp of 4680s, but could be $6 to $8."

Just in time for a new factory announcement....

 

[StealthP3D]

I and many others respect you both; please take this to DMs

Don't encourage him!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Diess if leaving his post apparently.

Lets see if all his pandering to Elon lands him a job at Tesla.

Volkswagen CEO Diess to depart; Porsche boss Blume will lead the German auto giant

Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess will leave the company at the end of August. Oliver Blume, currently Porsche's CEO, will replace him.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Cosmacelf]

Diess leaving, i guess VW with 183 billion in debt can hardly afford
a transition to EVs. ... On the other hand they are appear too big to fail And
might only transition if the government helps them out.

Given Germany's other problems (high energy costs, inflation) and Germany's proclivity towards austerity, or at least, a tendency towards fiscal prudence, I don't know how much VW can expect from the German government.

The bigger they are, the harder they fall...

Do we know for sure if this will puts the brakes on VW's EV transition?

 

[thesmokingman]

Lets see if all his pandering to Elon lands him a job at Tesla.

Volkswagen CEO Diess to depart; Porsche boss Blume will lead the German auto giant

Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess will leave the company at the end of August. Oliver Blume, currently Porsche's CEO, will replace him.

www.cnbc.com

lol, weird twist of fate he heads up Giga Berlin?

 

[Blue horseshoe]

"So more like $5 in Q3 and it is hard to even predict Q4 due to the ramp of 4680s, but could be $6 to $8."

Just in time for a new factory announcement....

I wouldn't be surprised to see them announce multiple new factory locations at the shareholder meeting. I'm hoping for 3

 

[bkp_duke]

Take it for what it’s worth.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1550510854025744384

How ironic would it be if Diess took a position in Tesla Germany . . .

Not saying I necessarily want that, but man, heads would EXPLODE!

 

[Drumheller]

lol, weird twist of fate he heads up Giga Berlin?

Please no. He might understand the need to transition to EVs but his background is in the old ways of slow-moving beaurocracy and corruption.

 

[Discoducky]

Background via @avoigt:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1550513640255766528

Reading about Oliver Blume (next CEO, currently Porche CEO) does not, IMHO, inspire confidence that anything is going to get better their in terms of competition to Tesla.

Blume was in charge during the entirety of Taycan development and it was and is a complete tragedy (beautiful to look at and fun to drive until it isn't due to software and drivetrain issues that are either ongoing, difficult to understand and possibly permanent). Maybe they will actually compete in 2027 when CARAID (whoops CARIAD) is able to come to market, but I'm not holding my breath.

This is looking more and more like VW will fall on the ICE sword eventually ('too big to fail') and Germany will need to somehow forgive or pay their astounding and ever rising nearly 200 BILLION debt.

 

[thesmokingman]

Volkswagen chief says German car giant will overtake Tesla on electric vehicle sales by 2025

Volkswagen's CEO said alleviating supply chain issues would likely help create some momentum for the German auto giant in the coming months.

www.cnbc.com

So I guess this is a no now huh?

 

[UkNorthampton]

Reading about Oliver Blume (next CEO, currently Porche CEO) does not, IMHO, inspire confidence that anything is going to get better their in terms of competition to Tesla.

Blume was in charge during the entirety of Taycan development and it was and is a complete tragedy (beautiful to look at and fun to drive until it isn't due to software and drivetrain issues that are either ongoing, difficult to understand and possibly permanent). Maybe they will actually compete in 2027 when CARAID (whoops CARIAD) is able to come to market, but I'm not holding my breath.

This is looking more and more like VW will fall on the ICE sword eventually ('too big to fail') and Germany will need to somehow forgive or pay their astounding and ever rising nearly 200 BILLION debt.

Plus VW & supplier pensions, probably far bigger

 

[Budding]

Any news out of China causing other China EVs to be down?

 

[Gigapress]

If R&D expenses stay low (like Q2 and it should as they have "no breakthroughs needed" for scaling 4680 and Elon reiterated high confidence in FSD full scale beta by end of year) and ASP continues to rise and factories are full steam will see auto gross margins improve so thinking we do 400k to 450k production in Q3 (remember Q4 2021 production was 305k so expecting the Shanghai 'death star to be fully operational' shouldn't be out of the question).

So more like $5 in Q3 and it is hard to even predict Q4 due to the ramp of 4680s, but could be $6 to $8.

The thing that blows my mind is the "no breakthroughs needed". From an engineering perspective, that has always (ALWAYS) been the bottleneck (the relentless pursuit of manufacturing "takt" time has been the ultimate goal and the light at the end of the tunnel is very bright.)

420k vehicles * ($18k current gross profit per car + $4k increase) - $1.7B OpEx
=
$7.54B net income before tax

$7.54B * (100% - 10% tax) / 1.15B shares outstanding fully diluted
=
About $6/share for auto

Energy finally showed positive 11.5% gross margin in Q2 with $100M income off $866M revenue. Megapack deployments projected by Tesla leadership to go up like 2-4x this year with Lathrop cranking up output. This should improve margins further with economies of scale and Wright’s Law for the manufacturing learning curve kicking in hard. Energy probably does $250M income by Q4 and $50M for services & other like in Q2.

Add that to math above and EPS goes to $6.13/share estimated, which is $24.52 annualized. If forward P/E is only 50 then TSLA is back at all-time high in the $1200s.

420k cars produced is conservative in my opinion.

• Fremont should be at least at 140k
  • Barely more than Q1 & Q2
• Shanghai at least 250k
  • 71k rate in June * 3 —> 213k quarterly so this would be only a 17% increase
• This would leave a difference of 30k for Aus & Ber combined
  • This is a rate they’re already approximately doing right now
  • Guidance just given was for 5k per week each or 130k combined rate by end of year
    • “I'm confident we'll get to 5,000 cars a week at -- in Austin and Berlin by the end of this year or early next year” - Tesla Technoking
  • Accounting for growth from start to end of Q4, this corresponds to maybe 110k for Q4

If it’s actually more like this then we reach the $8/share high-end estimate @Discoducky shared. I also think if this happened then TSLA would trade at a higher forward P/E ratio because of the higher growth rate.

Q4 2022 Estimates
300k	Shanghai
150k	Fremont
55k	Berlin
55k	Austin
560k	Total Volume
$63k	ASP + Avg credit/car
$150B	Rev
($41k)	Avg CoGS per car
35%	Gross Margin
$12.3B	Auto Gross Profit
$0.3B	Energy + Services Profit
($1.7B)	OpEx
$8.50	Net earnings per share
80	P/E for Q4
$2,700	Stock Price

Not advice

 

[StealthP3D]

What? What personal use would special glass be for???

If Elon really wanted "special glass", the first thing that comes to mind is bullet proof glass. And it would be perfectly appropriate for the company to pay for Elon's bullet proof glass if they had reason to believe there was a threat. It doesn't really matter where it was going, as long as Elon spends time there, it's an appropriate use of company funds. Because disrupting multiple multi-billion-dollar industries is hard, dangerous work and someone has to do it.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Volkswagen chief says German car giant will overtake Tesla on electric vehicle sales by 2025

Volkswagen's CEO said alleviating supply chain issues would likely help create some momentum for the German auto giant in the coming months.

www.cnbc.com

So I guess this is a no now huh?

Come on now...we all know the truth and its ugly:

Mary Barra says GM will sell more EVs than Tesla by mid-decade - Autoblog

General Motors CEO Mary Barra says that by the middle of this decade, her company will sell more electric vehicles in the U.S. than Tesla.

www.autoblog.com

Funny how the timelines both say by 2025.....now Diess is gone, next up is Barra.

 

[Discoducky]

Plus VW & supplier pensions, probably far bigger

Anyone paying even the tiniest bit of attention would know that not ONE SINGLE traditional ICE car manufacturer is even attempting to compete against Tesla (with their 'heavily adapted from ICE chassis' nonsense). All these supposed competitor cars (so far) fail on so many levels to even close to Tesla's efficiencies, economies of scale, supply chain logistics, chip/board development agility...etc).

I'll be very upset if my tax dollars are used to bail out any of it as this dog and pony show from GM and F has gone on for over a decade. I actually hope they don't fail or fail after Tesla can build at least 3M/yr Model Y for the US market and 1M/yr CT so the government does NOT feel compelled to anoint them 'too big to fail'.

My fav one chart to rule them all from Matty. See the Taycan at the South Pole of efficiency? Do you think any self respecting engineer is proud of that? Ugh, it is exasperating...

 

[Stretch2727]

Please no. He might understand the need to transition to EVs but his background is in the old ways of slow-moving beaurocracy and corruption.

Hard to make this judgement based on what we know of him. Some people can do quite well with solid industry knowledge when they don't have to deal with the bureaucracy any longer. Jerome Guillen comes to mind, came from the industry and did quite well at Tesla.

Herbert Diess strikes me as a guy that was always battling the VW bureaucracy but I maybe wrong.