Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Right_Said_Fred]

M3 numberw will be good.

But SX might go below 15k and as low as 12k, i hope I am wrong.

Even Anton W. predicts 15.000+ for S and X (7.400 + 7.700).

 

[Nocturnal]

Relax, we are in an electric car.
Oopsie, Hi, girls!
Aw, salt water seems to be good for it.

 

[DurandalAI]

According to green on Twitter Tesla is not uploading autopilot interventions from customer cars. He's mentioned it in other tweets as well. It is anecdotal, but I've had Autopilot improve on locations where it was poor before, but who knows what the cause was.

 

[CorneliusXX]

The problem is that people would have a fit that there were excessive miles on their new car.

My hope is that during the event a car will come in and Elon will say "and BTW this car is just arriving from New York and it drove itself." But probably too soon for that.

I just drove in from new York and boy are my wheels tired

 

[Nocturnal]

According to green on Twitter Tesla is not uploading autopilot interventions from customer cars. He's mentioned it in other tweets as well. It is anecdotal, but I've had Autopilot improve on locations where it was poor before, but who knows what the cause was.

Hmm. Elon said that is exactly what they were doing.

 

[Rarity]

Hmm. Elon said that is exactly what they were doing.

Could be selectively doing so. Bandwidth is expensive.

 

[Dreadnought]

I expect stoplights, stop signs, etc... but with a Waymo-style cheat (e.g. in a sandbox that they've trained to and run a thousand times - along with a safety driver. E.g., no surprises).

Tesla took a different approach with their driver assistance which, as it improves, handles more use-cases and needs less driver intervention. Where Waymo's strategy results in an all-or-nothing scenario (it's entirely worthless until if and when it eventually works), Tesla's FSD package is already a viable product. A Waymo showcase has to be flawless else nobody will consider it fit for daily routine. Tesla should rather demonstrate the advancements made possible through the new HW and that this HW will be powerful enough to support the upcoming features.

To me, taking investors on a tour through Fremont with little or no driver intervention would be a successful demo. It would raise my confidence in their FSD roadmap. Short term, we will see increasing take rates for the FSD package and a portion of the deferred revenue for already sold licenses may be booked. Long term, this is the only feasible way to achieve L4+ autonomy *and getting regulatory approval*. How long will it take Waymo to demonstrate 10 billion error-free miles?

In case any TSLA investors reading this: what's the fair value of a 10% chance to claim a 25% share of a $2 Trillion market?

 

[Tslynk67]

It's not a swamp, it's a floodplain. And a floodplain with pretty good defenses - the new/main airport is on the same floodplain.

Hey, Birdie, you're a day too early, the SP is green...

 

[Mader Levap]

According to green on Twitter Tesla is not uploading autopilot interventions from customer cars. He's mentioned it in other tweets as well. It is anecdotal, but I've had Autopilot improve on locations where it was poor before, but who knows what the cause was.

We know what cause it was. They improve autopilot literally every working day (though they probably do not upload final results to Teslas daily ). You can imagine those guys and gals working on labeling mountains of data as teachers that teach autopilot what to do in very roundabout and extremely inefficient way (comparing to human learning).

 

[wipster]

Man Tesla stock price action is so predictable sometimes. Almost guaranteed if it spikes in the morning, it's going to be walked down throughout the rest of the day

Indeed. Once of the first things I learned when I joined this forum was the true meaning of MMD. It disappears sometimes but always returns. It a horrible malady, won't you please give?

End MMD now!

 

[bdy0627]

I would think Occam’s razor says they couldn’t get all the numbers in from China and perhaps somewhere else to get a completely accurate summary in time for today’s market start. That is a much simpler explanation than trying to delay bad news.

Is it really that difficult in this age to get those numbers? I would guess not but I'm not in the field so I can't say I know for sure. They have been selling internationally for many years now and have not had a problem providing the numbers within a day or two in the past. On the other hand, this was the craziest international push they have ever had, so there is that. From what all we know, it would be shocking if there was a beat on S/X numbers. It seems probable that the model 3 numbers will meet or beat expectations. I think it would be shocking if the model 3 numbers were a big miss.

 

[Nocturnal]

In case any TSLA investors reading this: what's the fair value of a 10% chance to claim a 25% share of a $2 Trillion market?

Are you just referring to ride sharing taxis? The thing about Tesla is that even if their FSD winds up inferior to say Waymo, as long as it works they will necessarily have a huge share of the market just due to the mass of cars they have/will have on the road. The only way they don't get a share of that market is if their FSD just can't work, which is not likely.

 

[lklundin]

WHAT IF, Elon decides not to release delivery numbers at all ?
He could say, the analcysts and Shorty Air Force embracing MSM will spin anything negatively anyway and they want to trumpet their false narrative, so let them do that without any fuel, just hot air. No point feeding them.

Investors will get the full picture on the Earnings Release, market can speculate all they want.

ps: or just say something super-vague, like:
Total Deliveries were up well over 400% YoY.

The decision to _not_ release the P&D numbers would surely be spun as a harbinger of Tesla's imminent bankruptcy filing.

 

[Remus]

According to green on Twitter Tesla is not uploading autopilot interventions from customer cars. He's mentioned it in other tweets as well. It is anecdotal, but I've had Autopilot improve on locations where it was poor before, but who knows what the cause was.

I don't know what evidence he has to backup that claim. Autopilot system needs improving, sure. I am even in the camp saying full autonomy won't be here in 5 years. But claiming that they are not using human overrides as learning tool? I am guessing he is just pulling it out of ...

Some light reading material from the one and only Andrej Karpathy.
Short Story on AI: A Cognitive Discontinuity.

Who knows he can be such as good story teller.

 

[goinfraftw]

So, I finally saw autopilot on a white model 3 avert an accident while getting on the 101 highway today. It was a pedestrian that felt they had right of way and tried to test to see how the car would react (from my best understanding being the car behind that model 3).

It looked unnatural in how a car moved, but it was amazing to see the accident (though likely light) averted. At the same time, I needed to be attentive too as the car behind it. I'm not totally sure how Tesla is going to work with cars behind it to avert scenarios where the model 3 is trying to deal with multiple potential collisions at the same time right now, but look forward to seeing what they do.

In hindsight, it probably would have been even safer if my car had the same self-driving/autopilot tech and "talked" or "sensed" the same situation happening ahead of the lead car.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

The decision to _not_ release the P&D numbers would surely be spun as a harbinger of Tesla's imminent bankruptcy filing.

Playing devil's advocate here...

Who cares what the analysts and shorts spin? They're going to spin it no matter what. The law says you have to report financials every quarter, not P&D, right? If the history is that those numbers create nothing but havoc, why give them the ammo?

Dan

 

[jerry33]

you do realize numbers don't need to travel by boat, right?

Correct, but they need to be translated and verified.

 

[Dreadnought]

Are you just referring to ride sharing taxis? The thing about Tesla is that even if their FSD winds up inferior to say Waymo, as long as it works they will necessarily have a huge share of the market just due to the mass of cars they have/will have on the road. The only way they don't get a share of that market is if their FSD just can't work, which is not likely.

This was in reference to the mythical 2T tag by ARK. There are many unknowns today and while we might be a bit wiser after the 19th, these figures will still remain to be WAGs. Trying not to get carried away while the stock is in the green, my point was that any non-zero chance of capturing a slice of such a huge cake alone justifies to double TSLA's value.

 

[scaesare]

According to green on Twitter Tesla is not uploading autopilot interventions from customer cars. He's mentioned it in other tweets as well. It is anecdotal, but I've had Autopilot improve on locations where it was poor before, but who knows what the cause was.

However they do "record coordinates where it happened and car heading and time".

Tesla then has the ability to request telemetrics uploads (incl. video segments/snaps) based on a variety of triggers. Coordinates with a significant number of disengagements can be one of those triggers, as can a variety of other things.

 

[Big Blue 1011]

WHAT IF, Elon decides not to release delivery numbers at all ?
He could say, the analcysts and Shorty Air Force embracing MSM will spin anything negatively anyway and they want to trumpet their false narrative, so let them do that without any fuel, just hot air. No point feeding them.

Investors will get the full picture on the Earnings Release, market can speculate all they want.

ps: or just say something super-vague, like:
Total Deliveries were up well over 400% YoY.

Public companies get punished severely when they do anything to reduce transparency, particular on short notice, much less no notice at all. Examples: Twitter saying that they are not going to report Average Monthly Users; even Apple saying that they will stop reporting iPhone unit sales, just report dollar volume. Eventually, the stock recovers, but the last thing you would want to do is kill the upward momentum of the SP for no good reason.