Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Kenypowa]

Well, no idea about the future, but if you are the type to trade thus news, you probably shorted tsmc and try to cover the short as fast as possible the moment market opens.

Maybe somone can think up some more trades. But like China banned 1000 food taiwanese products from China. So shorting Taiwanese food product company would've been a good idea. But I did not forsee that.

I can't get aroind thr fact that thry are slapping Taiwan for something usa is doing.

The fact that China is punishing Taiwanese food export means exactly that nothing major will happen. China will declare victory in punishing the Taiwanese and that US is scared of Chinese military so Peolsi has to visit Taiwan unofficially instead of officially.

There is a saying in Taiwan: the dogs that bark all the time do not bite. The dog that bites you is the one that doesn't bark.

Remember when Russia amassed troops in the border yet continued to insist they have no intention of attacking Ukraine? That it was all US propoganda? Remember that when German launched Barbarossa or when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor it was completely shock?

The day when China gathers huge amount of troops, and when they declare they have no intention to attack, is the day we should start worrying. The same goes for North Korea.

Nevertheless, let's all pray for world peace.

 

[Causalien]

The fact that China is punishing Taiwanese food export means exactly that nothing major will happen. China will declare victory in punishing the Taiwanese and that US is scared of Chinese military so Peolsi has to visit Taiwan unofficially instead of officially.

There is a saying in Taiwan: the dogs that bark all the time do not bite. The dog that bites you is the one that doesn't bark.

Remember when Russia amassed troops in the border yet continued to insist they have no intention of attacking Ukraine? That it was all US propoganda? Remember that when German launched Barbarossa or when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor it was completely shock?

The day when China gathers huge amount of troops, and when they declare they have no intention to attack, is the day we should start worrying. The same goes for North Korea.

Nevertheless, let's all pray for world peace.

If they are going to take some extrme measures, it'll be after all the aircraft carriers left Taiwan.

 

[Rohan]

Below is a reaction video to the Munro/Farley video. It has good commentary of key clips on how Ford recognizes just how far ahead is Tesla and lists some top challenges Ford has to move over to making EVs at scale (and by analogy other legacy OEMs).

Well, they do at least have a battery plan (allegedly):

Ford Releases New Battery Capacity Plan, Raw Materials Details to Scale EVs; On Track to Ramp to 600K Run Rate by ’23 and 2M+ by ’26, Leveraging Global Relationships​

Ford Releases New Battery Capacity Plan, Raw Materials Details to Scale EVs; On Track to Ramp to 600K Run Rate by ’23 and 2M+ by ’26, Leveraging Global Relationships

www.batterytechhub.com

"Ford already has sourced 70% of battery capacity to support 2 million+ annual EV global run rate by 2026"; sounds like they mean it - good for them!

 

[MP3Mike]

The odds of failure for any one pack are very low. But I'm not going to trust LG Energy ever again.

You say that, but you also said this:

As a Chevy Bolt owner who got his pack replaced, I can report that I'm not worried about my new pack.

So obviously you trust LG enough that you continue to use your Bolt EV, with a LG made pack, rather than sell it and get something with a pack from a company you trust.

 

[JRP3]

As for the seriousness ilof moneypox, seems to be a painful rash with zero fatalities and requires skin to skin contact. Highly correlated to be transmitted mainly through sex, specifically men on men. To me this seems to be more on the level of STD than some kind of earth ending pandemic.

A few deaths reported this weekend:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1553809190359109632

At least some famous people start to get a bit frustrated:

Dr. Sanjay Gupta: While monkeypox cases rise, why are we waiting for the cavalry to rescue us? | CNN

We are now in the midst of our first significant test since the Covid pandemic began, to see if we do any better this time around. There is no doubt we are capable, and we are prepared. The question is will we use all those remarkable resources and respond, or we will wait and suffer?

edition.cnn.com

Meanwhile US has ramped up testing and is now in the lead for number of cases:
View attachment 835357

So far the experiment continues, let's hope it doesn't end badly...

 

[Drezil]

The fact that China is punishing Taiwanese food export means exactly that nothing major will happen. China will declare victory in punishing the Taiwanese and that US is scared of Chinese military so Peolsi has to visit Taiwan unofficially instead of officially.

There is a saying in Taiwan: the dogs that bark all the time do not bite. The dog that bites you is the one that doesn't bark.

Remember when Russia amassed troops in the border yet continued to insist they have no intention of attacking Ukraine? That it was all US propoganda? Remember that when German launched Barbarossa or when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor it was completely shock?

The day when China gathers huge amount of troops, and when they declare they have no intention to attack, is the day we should start worrying. The same goes for North Korea.

Nevertheless, let's all pray for world peace.

It's all about symbol-politics.

The thing is: Pelosi will be "escorted" by chinese fighter-jets. That are the first chinese military jets entering the taiwanese airspace that i heard of. I doub't that things will happen, but have one trigger-happy soldier who just wants to "stick it to the chinese" and you can get a major incident...

The whole taiwanese situation is complex. And is a complete landmine of foreign politics. Really good background on that with direct quots from the agreements in this polymatter-video:

 

[Singuy]

I guess this idea of punishing money pits is now off?

Lose $2.6B in a single quarter....pop 10%.

Uber reports another big loss but beats on revenue, shares pop 19%

Uber reported a second quarter loss on Tuesday but beat analyst estimates for revenue.

www.cnbc.com

Lots of it attributed to some of the tech companies they bought in but their value declined. I am still having a hard time justifying this software company with a gross margin of only 36% and then lose 713M after you factor in all the operational cost.

It'll be pretty funny if Tesla surpasses their GM by next year with only hardware sales.

 

[BornToFly]

Seeing this headline... "California declares a state of emergency over monkeypox outbreak, following New York and Illinois" - I sure hope there won't be some crazy shutdown of the Fremont plant à la 2020.

I guess it will depend on just how much "fun" they are having in the break room....

 

[Usain]

You say that, but you also said this:


So obviously you trust LG enough that you continue to use your Bolt EV, with a LG made pack, rather than sell it and get something with a pack from a company you trust.

Correct. For now I'm keeping my Bolt along with my two Teslas. I might sell the Bolt next year, but I'm not worried about it catching fire because the odds are low for any one pack.

I trust them enough to use the brand new pack they gave me for free. But I don't trust them enough to spend hard earned money on a new car with an LG pack.

 

[Nocturnal]

Now we can add Toyota to the list of emissions cheats along with VW, Hyundai, and Stellantis.

Japan truckmaker Hino says emissions data faked for 20 years

Hino Motors, a truck maker that’s part of the Toyota group, systematically falsified emissions data dating back as far as 2003, according to the results of an investigation released Tuesday.

www.cp24.com

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I guess this idea of punishing money pits is now off?

Lose $2.6B in a single quarter....pop 10%.

Uber reports another big loss but beats on revenue, shares pop 19%

Uber reported a second quarter loss on Tuesday but beat analyst estimates for revenue.

www.cnbc.com

Market is always forward thinking....remember?

 

[The Accountant]

Well, they do at least have a battery plan (allegedly):

Ford Releases New Battery Capacity Plan, Raw Materials Details to Scale EVs; On Track to Ramp to 600K Run Rate by ’23 and 2M+ by ’26, Leveraging Global Relationships​

Ford Releases New Battery Capacity Plan, Raw Materials Details to Scale EVs; On Track to Ramp to 600K Run Rate by ’23 and 2M+ by ’26, Leveraging Global Relationships

www.batterytechhub.com

"Ford already has sourced 70% of battery capacity to support 2 million+ annual EV global run rate by 2026"; sounds like they mean it - good for them!

The more awareness there is for EVs, the more Tesla will sell. So I am looking for Ford to succeed; hope they make it.
But I did notice this in the press release:
". . . . targeting total company adjusted EBIT margins of 10% and 8% EBIT margins for EVs by 2026".

Tesla hit 22% EBIT margins in Q1 2022 and will likely reach 24% this Q4 2022 (and that's with Energy and Services dragging the number down).
In my opinion, I believe that Ford will reach 8% EBIT% in 2026 only with very high Average Selling Prices.
It makes you appreciate what Tesla has achieved . . .and as I have said before, "Tesla is only in the 2nd inning of a 9 inning game".

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Ford CEO. Doofus. $5k more for Prius with HOV sticker was not for the 5 minutes he saved via the commute lane. That’s not the ’cost’ of five minutes. You can’t just linearly extrapolate that value for 45 minutes for another commuter. Ugh.

Monroe. Bewitching?. Cow towing to the ‘Built Ford Tough’ nonsense. I’ve had 3 Fords. Fine vehicles. But tough is not an apt adjective. Ugh again.

Linda. BSing. Paraphrasing. “My kids don’t know what to when the truck leaves the house. It’s so much part of the family now.” Ugh. Ugh. Ugh.

Kool Aid anyone?

This is probably the most annoying thing that is on Ford Twitter - it seems like the Ford "Lighting" is at every event with power outage and saves the day. 100% batting average without fail. READS STAGED all over. You're also telling me Lind's house get power outage with every rain storm too?

I'll give Ford (legacy manufacturers) credit here and it's their ability to market a little feature a few will use as if all will use it daily.

 

[UkNorthampton]

A company has been appointed to oversee a £70 Billion Net Zero transition in the UK - Place Group - Net Zero - £70 billion - 2 employees

Potential for Tesla energy & cars. Or not.

 

[Drax7]

Correct. For now I'm keeping my Bolt along with my two Teslas. I might sell the Bolt next year, but I'm not worried about it catching fire because the odds are low for any one pack.

I trust them enough to use the brand new pack they gave me for free. But I don't trust them enough to spend hard earned money on a new car with an LG pack.

If you park the bolt in your home garage, just make sure your house is well covered
by insurance for fire.

 

[AudubonB]

Regarding US politicians visiting Taiwan:

There is nothing new here; the story should be covered by our own (hint: Canadian) kabuki fan.

I know firsthand of a trade mission wherein a US governor and his team - Commissioners of business, economy, agriculture and so forth - were in their Taipei hotel when an envelope arrived from Beijing with a Cease & Desist message - that any discussion, negotiations and so forth regarding trade deals with any part of China had to occur through Beijing and, not having done so, they were to depart immediately.
The Governor, being a rather direct sort of fellow, took the letter, tore it in shreds, and burned it in the wastebasket.
An educated guess is this has happened more than once; were Speaker Pelosi to be the visitor the visibility is higher but otherwise, this sounds to me analogous to the constant - though only rarely reported - incursions deep into each other’s airspace that US and Russian fighter jets conduct. It happens all the time across the Bering Straits.

 

[elasalle]

called the macro bluff (Not over yet, but lets see if tensions flare even more ... )

Added one TSLA Jan 24 1K call, and sold some TSM puts
(I think Biden talking to Xi pre Pelosi visit was a good move). Saw a clip where Pelosi had visited Tianemen Sq years back for a similar visit, world didn't end then, will not end now

 

[The Accountant]

One Targets and One Does

 

[TheTalkingMule]

More light squeezing on good volume. I like it. If folks keep covering/hedging, that mean volume makes it hard for MM's to naked short effectively.

Gonna get some work done today. Tomorrow should be fun!

 

[henchman24]

Strictly my opinion and nothing to really base this off of... the issues from the Pelosi visit won't be during the visit. This issues will happen over the next 6-18 months as the tensions build and build.