Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

Good decision, their forecast for 2022 production is terrible. They only produced 1405 cars in the first half of 2022 and are only looking to make 6000-7000 for all of 2022 now. Obviously they are having issues ramping production.

They are attempting to produce 5x the number of cars they produced in the first half of 2022?

Rawlinson: "While the first half has been challenging....we definitely see huge progress in the 2nd half" - The English accent soothes everyone's despair

 

[jw934]

I don't know if it's 40%, but it's far higher than most mega caps. Especially when you consider how much of the float is tied up with Elon and insiders.

Combine that with retail options trading and it's not insignificant.

"Vanda Research writes that retail investor flows have been the major driver of the rebound in equities in the last few days across the broader market, as aggregate buying has been consistently above the YTD average (avg. $1.36BN over the last five days), while the focus has been on classic tech stocks such as TSLA, NVDA, AAPL, AMD, and AMZN." - source: Zerohedge

I don't understand that comment from Vanda. From what see in the chart, the latest purple line reaches about $700M, which is approx 1 million shares of net $TSLA buy in a week, meaning to me that most of the buying are institutional.

Edit - Vanda Research statement on Tesla shares rise are due to individual investors also published on other sites. E.g. Bloomberg:

According to Vanda Research data, retail purchases of Tesla shares are “skyrocketing,” with individual investors seen as most bullish on the company since the summer of 2020.​

and Yahoo IFinance Insiders:

• Purchases of Tesla stock by retail investors have been "skyrocketing," Vanda Research said on Wednesday.

 

[Curt Renz]

Do you, Curt Renz - or henchman24, see a potential cup or cup with handle technical pattern forming for TSLA?

It still seems to be on the right upside of a cup. A handle would need to be seen in the 1100 region.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

It still seems to be on the right upside of a cup. A handle would need to be seen in the 1100 region.

So.....we should see a handle in......2 weeks maybe?

 

[LodiEVFan]

I agree - still aways to go. A rise to that level seems possible based on the probable split announcement with a pause thereafter to form the handle. Or, it could just skip the handle.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

"Vanda Research writes that retail investor flows have been the major driver of the rebound in equities in the last few days across the broader market, as aggregate buying has been consistently above the YTD average (avg. $1.36BN over the last five days), while the focus has been on classic tech stocks such as TSLA, NVDA, AAPL, AMD, and AMZN." - source: Zerohedge

I don't understand that comment from Vanda. From what see in the chart, the latest purple line reaches about $700M, which is approx 1 million shares of net $TSLA buy in a week, meaning to me that most of the buying are institutional.

View attachment 836277

Your mistake here is thinking Zerohedge is a source.

 

[dhanson865]

The U.S. power grid added 15 GW of generating capacity in the first half of 2022 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

 

[henchman24]

I think a case for the cup and handle could be made at 950 or 1100/1150 where a pullback or flag before a breakout would happen. I don't think it is one simply due to the size. But here... we... go...

Kinda had a failed cup and handle breakout in April (supports one of significant size can be made). Where we dropped from January, then pushed in late March to Early April with a pull back and a failed handle and breakdown on April 25th. Plenty of reasons around that, but an illustration that not every cup and handle equates to a breakout. So in the case that one forms... a break down on a 950 handle below ~850 and a 1100/1150 handle past ~1000 would initiate a failed breakout where a re-test of recent lows could happen.

Now if a breakout happens, depending on how you calculate it... and I think the depth of the cup here really keeps this breakout of from happening (simply put, it is too deep for a normal version). On a basic level the move from 1150 to 620 sets a 530 move that is pushed up off the handle... so an 1100 handle pulling back ~10% would suggest a move over 1500 and even approaching 1600. If the handle formed at say 950... and a pull back to ~870, we have a much more reasonable 1200 breakout.

I personally can see the pattern of it, but I have a hard time seeing that breakout level... especially to a 1500 level (1200 is within reach). Cups and handles are not usually events at this scale. I hope it happens... but I think it is simply more likely that we break out, hit an unknown resistance level to then have to really figure out where support is as the day traders leave.

Last note here... and hopefully this isn't too unpopular though I recognize I'm a witch for even mentioning this. If we do get a cup and handle with a breakout to 1500.... it would be a fantastic time to hedge or take profits.

 

[MikeC]

I believe the stock usually runs up the week of the "Record Date" as people want to own the stock to get the split. In my first scenario that would be the run up to August 19.

What I don’t understand - even if you were the shareholder of record on 8/19/20, if you sold your shares prior to the actual split, the other 4 dividend shares followed the sold shares. That is, after becoming the shareholder of record on 8/19/20, you could not then sell those original shares on 8/22/20 and still receive the 4 dividend shares on 8/26/20.

So what’s even the point of being the shareholder of record the week before, when what matters is whether or not you’re holding shares at the actual time of the split?

 

[bkp_duke]

Sounds like not everyone in the Rust Belt is happy with the proposed EV legislation. The requirement for mineral sourcing and processing in the US or country with a Free Trade agreement is going to prove tough.

Automakers press U.S. Senator Manchin for changes to EV tax credit proposal

Automakers want Democratic Senator Joe Manchin to revisit his proposal to restructure the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit, raising fears it could be largely unworkable because of new sourcing requirements for battery components and critical minerals.

www.reuters.com

Hadn’t really thought about this, but this essentially makes all Model 3s ineligible, the less expensive ones due to LFP content, the more expensive due to pricing. Model Y fares a bit better I think. Not sure about where Panasonic gets their minerals sourced. Texas cells should be safe here?

Since GM & Ford source all their batteries from China and Asia, they aren’t loving this either.

Rivian is complaining about the cap for obvious reasons.

Maybe round 3 is going to get scuppered as well.

The Model 3 should become eligible when CATL opens their battery plant in the USA to supply Tesla with LFP cells.

 

[henchman24]

What I don’t understand - even if you were the shareholder of record on 8/19/20, if you sold your shares prior to the actual split, the other 4 dividend shares followed the sold shares. That is, after becoming the shareholder of record on 8/19/20, you could not then sell those original shares on 8/22/20 and still receive the 4 dividend shares on 8/26/20.

So what’s even the point of being the shareholder of record the week before, when what matters is whether or not you’re holding shares at the actual time of the split?

In practical purposes, you can sell or buy at any time and the broker will assign them to the correct place.

A lot of the dating and wording is for an outdated system on the backend that has to be reconciled.

 

[Singuy]

Listening to the Lucid call, I think they need to get rid of the CEO. He seems to have zero concerns about cost and just talk about all their awards and how he personally makes sure every car is perfect before it goes out.

Does he not know there's a clock ticking down fast? This company being established 2 years before Rivian is losing to them on production big time. You couldn't tell that it's a company established just 4 years after Tesla, and yet Tesla's production number beat them out like in 2010. There's only so much goodwill from investors. I think the analysts will tear them a new one. I am frustrated and I'm not even an investor.

 

[JRP3]

Maybe take Lucid talk to the Lucid thread now
All discussion of Lucid Motors

 

[Tim S]

Lucid

• Q2 revenue of $97.3M driven by customer deliveries of 679 vehicles in the quarter
• Strong demand with over 37,000 reservations, representing potential sales of approximately $3.5B
• Production volume outlook for 2022 revised to a range of 6,000 to 7,000 vehicles

Oh okay

They burned 2.2 b of cash in this Q and has 3.1B left WTF. Am I reading this right?
Edit, looks like they have 4.6B left if you add their investments.

I'm guessing a lot of those 37,000 reservation holders will end up buying Model S and X Plaids when they get tired of waiting.

 

[Electroman]

So on a positive note, saw my personal physician in person yesterday for the first time in quite a while. Turns out he's a Tesla man himself and has gotten his order in for a tri-motor CyberTruck fairly close to the start of ordering. Anyway, he got his delivery notice last week for October 15, 2023, which bodes quite well for production starting in mid 2023! He was also asked if he wanted to convert to a quad motor, to which he said yes enthusiastically, which may move his delivery date up some.

Anyway, it's great that folks are now receiving delivery notices on the CyberTruck! Seems like it will finally be a reality!

Go longs!

Bring on the dislikes. My 6th sense crystal ball says, there will be zero CTs delivered next year. Still a long way from tooling the factory, producing test candidates and such. And don't forget they are pushing new engineering and tech in CT manufacturing that has been never been done before. Best case, like Model 3, make a few with a lot of manual touch points and little automation in Q4 next year and real volume production starts sometime in 2024.

 

[traxila]

Bring on the dislikes. My 6th sense crystal ball says, there will be zero CTs delivered next year. Still a long way from tooling the factory, producing test candidates and such. And don't forget they are pushing new engineering and tech in CT manufacturing that has been never been done before. Best case, like Model 3, make a few with a lot of manual touch points and little automation in Q4 next year and real volume production starts sometime in 2024.

Sounds right. Second half of 2023 before deliveries start. Slowly.

Long as we keep hitting 50% YOY all is good.

Would love to see a ramp in semi Production. And energy big time. My solar roof still in the works. Also lInes up to purchase eight power walls for two different properties.

Roadster comes last. Sorry.

 

[betstarship]

Found this on thetwitter

Source: United States: CO2 Country Profile

Better source (Global Carbon Project): News: Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement

 

[betstarship]

Link: https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/21/files/GCP_CarbonBudget_2021.pdf

 

[Prunesquallor]

Gary actually has a sense of humor.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1554954732459941888

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I don't understand that comment from Vanda. From what see in the chart, the latest purple line reaches about $700M, which is approx 1 million shares of net $TSLA buy in a week, meaning to me that most of the buying are institutional.

The vast majority of volume is algo moves between hedgies/MM's/banks I believe. Not really net buying or selling, just maneuvering. Retail is just some gal buying shares. So take retail volume as if it weighs 10-20x nonretail.