Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[pitabun]

You know right before the big decrease CNBC was talking about TSLAQ, being single stock ETF's for shorting stocks.

 

[traxila]

OK, so we definitely have some angry traders / investors dumping this AM feeling betrayed.

But that well should soon be running dry.

We still have excellent macros right now and a split in two weeks.

Looking for one of those TSLA stealth runs in the next few days.

Unless of course EM still selling? Maybe he forgot to tell his broker to stop! Does his broker follow him on twitter?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Indeed, it is more than just bad optics. After record breaking Q1 results when the SP just started to take off, he broke the rally by dumping $10Billion worth of shares sending the stock to a 3 months slump down from 1100s all the way down to low 600s. Now, 3 months later, when it finally started to recover going into the split (squeezing some shorts), he did it again, rewarding the shorts and screwing over the longs.

From now on, any time the SP has a big drop not explained by macros or bad company news, instead of shouting MANIPULATION (and blaming shortz, hedgies, MMs), everyone should just assume Elon is dumping again. As that has been the established statistical pattern now.

No, I am not mad, just disappointed that he thinks Twitter is more important than the Tesla mission and it certainly changes my perspective and conviction.
You know: fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.

I didn't know the Tesla mission consisted of squeezing shorts and making TSLA investors and speculators richer? I thought the mission was to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport. I don't see how by selling shares at what you consider to be an unfortunate* timing Elon is harming that mission.

(* By the way: is there such a thing as a fortunate timing for Elon to sell shares? If the stock is on a down trend selling would worsen it, if the stock is stable selling could cause a down trend, if the stock is going up selling could kill the upward momentum - you are now complaining about the last one, but wouldn't you have done the same in the other two scenarios?).

For the record: I don't like these sales either. I personally think he is throwing his money away by buying Twitter. But it's his money, they are his shares, made extremely valuable by him. Because they are his, he can do with them what he wants.

 

[Big Time]

looks like red on horizon?

 

[bkp_duke]

OK, so we definitely have some angry traders / investors dumping this AM feeling betrayed.

But that well should soon be running dry.

We still have excellent macros right now and a split in two weeks.

Looking for one of those TSLA stealth runs in the next few days.

Unless of course EM still selling? Maybe he forgot to tell his broker to stop! Does his broker follow him on twitter?

They are going to regret dumping. Emotional trades usually don't end well.

 

[Singuy]

You can't be a Debbie Downer when what you're saying it reality. Reality is the Debbie Downer here lol

Some people can get all excited and say "Now the runways clear for TSLA to go to the moon!". That's fine, I just don't think it's going to happen. I don't see how anyone can think that Elon's actions over the past year have helped with investor confidence.

Bare in mind, I'm talking about the stock and it's valuation. Tesla the company will continue to blow away expectations and execute amazingly like they've done every quarter since Q1 2021. But Wall St's not going to give them the credit for it. When your CEO not just erodes investor confidence, but sends it off a cliff, it takes time for the company to gain investor confidence back through execution.

To me, I feel for all the Tesla employees that have worked their ass off and executed like no other only to have your CEO torpedo your equity. Yes the employees that have been there for many years still have huge gains. Tell that to the employees hired since Q4 2020.

Since a lot of people seem to overreact to my posts, I clarify again, I have zero interest in selling any shares. I hold quite a few and it makes up a significant amount of my net worth. So my TSLA position isn't chump change that I take lightly. I'm fully aware of what the value of TSLA will be in just a couple years. But I have zero expectations for the stock over the next year thanks to Elon's actions and I can't really blame Wall St at this point.


This type of response is part of the problem. No one is saying Elon needs to cater to the stock and it's valuation. But don't do things that continually lose investor confidence. There's a difference. A big difference.

Have to agree that Teslas negative acquisition of Twitter is a huge blow to investor confidence as no one signed up for this. I say Tesla's acquisition because the transaction of all share transaction makes no difference when say AMD did an all share buy out of xilinx. However the big difference is Twitter's equity is not added back into Tesla. Tesla gets 0% of twitters' revenue or assets, however we the shareholder paid for it through Elon. Without us shareholders, Elon's shares are not valuable hence he can't buy a thing with them. This is probably one of the reason Tesla's valuation can be risky under Elon's random buys.

 

[Mengy]

looks like red on horizon?

Not sure what's going on, TSLA is really underperforming today, even moreso than usual. Feels quite odd.

 

[henchman24]

AANNNNDDD we are right back where we were when the great CPI numbers came out.

Ah well, this all still bodes well for the next few weeks.

Whole market is flirting with giving up the gains... I'd say odds are higher the market bounces, but breaking below 12,725 could start the tumble to 12,500.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

OK, so we definitely have some angry traders / investors dumping this AM feeling betrayed.

But that well should soon be running dry.

We still have excellent macros right now and a split in two weeks.

Looking for one of those TSLA stealth runs in the next few days.

Unless of course EM still selling? Maybe he forgot to tell his broker to stop! Does his broker follow him on twitter?

Maybe he told the broker to stop selling on TWTR but it hid the tweet?
...kinda see why he wants to buy it. Elon's 'yes' tweet regarding TSLA purchase if Twitter falls through is really hard to find!?

 

[henchman24]

Not sure what's going on, TSLA is really underperforming today, even moreso than usual. Feels quite odd.

Twitter overhang and not trusting Elon's word. Elon said before no more sales (with an out) and he's saying it again. Institutional investors simply don't trust him and think there is a chance of another 7-9b set of sales. Until the Twitter overhang is over, it will weigh on the stock with spurts of greater impact (last few days and today is that). Tesla will move with the macro (which is also starting to struggle) and after today, likely return to the normal beta (with a chance of some spikes during the split). After that we are looking at Sept Shanghai production. There are good things ahead, but there is clearly noise right now.

 

[mongo]

Have to agree that Teslas negative acquisition of Twitter is a huge blow to investor confidence as no one signed up for this. I say Tesla's acquisition because the transaction of all share transaction makes no difference when say AMD did an all share buy out of xilinx. However the big difference is Twitter's equity is not added back into Tesla. Tesla gets 0% of twitters' revenue or assets, however we the shareholder paid for it through Elon. Without us shareholders, Elon's shares are not valuable hence he can't buy a thing with them. This is probably one of the reason Tesla's valuation can be risky under Elon's random buys.

I think you are conflating 'share dilution via new issue for acquisition purchase offset by value of acquisition' with insider sales of existing/ held shares which changes the active float, but not the total share count.

Without shareholders setting a high share price, no all-stock acquisition could reasonably happen either.

 

[Todd Burch]

OK, so we definitely have some angry traders / investors dumping this AM feeling betrayed.

But that well should soon be running dry.

We still have excellent macros right now and a split in two weeks.

Looking for one of those TSLA stealth runs in the next few days.

Unless of course EM still selling? Maybe he forgot to tell his broker to stop! Does his broker follow him on twitter?

Just looks like a typical MMD to me...

 

[Singuy]

Twitter overhang and not trusting Elon's word. Elon said before no more sales (with an out) and he's saying it again. Institutional investors simply don't trust him and think there is a chance of another 7-9b set of sales. Until the Twitter overhang is over, it will weigh on the stock with spurts of greater impact (last few days and today is that). Tesla will move with the macro (which is also starting to struggle) and after today, likely return to the normal beta (with a chance of some spikes during the split). After that we are looking at Sept Shanghai production. There are good things ahead, but there is clearly noise right now.

Or it's nothing. I'm a huge AMD shareholder and its pattern is very similar to Tesla's(it is for most days btw). Both have polar opposite CEOs but both has similar execution.

 

[Sofie]

You can't be a Debbie Downer when what you're saying is reality. Reality is the Debbie Downer here lol

Some people can get all excited and say "Now the runways clear for TSLA to go to the moon!". That's fine, I just don't think it's going to happen. I don't see how anyone can think that Elon's actions over the past year have helped with investor confidence.

Bare in mind, I'm talking about the stock and it's valuation. Tesla the company will continue to blow away expectations and execute amazingly like they've done every quarter since Q1 2021. But Wall St's not going to give them the credit for it. When your CEO not just erodes investor confidence, but sends it off a cliff, it takes time for the company to gain investor confidence back through execution.

To me, I feel for all the Tesla employees that have worked their ass off and executed like no other only to have your CEO torpedo your equity. Yes the employees that have been there for many years still have huge gains. Tell that to the employees hired since Q4 2020. I'm sure employees love being told "You need to have a 2-3 year time horizon and hold" when it comes to them needing to use their RSU's for life events that require them to sell now.

Since a lot of people seem to overreact to my posts, I clarify again, I have zero interest in selling any shares. I hold quite a few and it makes up a significant amount of my net worth. So my TSLA position isn't chump change that I take lightly. I'm fully aware of what the value of TSLA will be in just a couple years. But I have zero expectations for the stock over the next year thanks to Elon's actions and I can't really blame Wall St at this point.


This type of response is part of the problem. No one is saying Elon needs to cater to the stock and it's valuation. But don't do things that continually lose investor confidence. There's a difference. A big difference.

Yeah I echo these feelings. Honestly, since everything last winter and going through all of that, I have no emotion now regarding performance of the stock. My holdings in this company are multiple thousands of shares and I really just don’t care anymore. I won’t sell, but I’ve become numb to this entire emotional drama everyday now practically.

 

[CLK350]

It's real, just hard to find, even with a specific search. Very strange behavior Twitter! This tweet should have been hugely popular.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1557199046741094400

Same here - normally any Tweet from Elon would appear on that thread. I also had to manually page through it to find Elon's YES response

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Just looks like a typical MMD to me...

Not with this level of volume. This is definitely some genuine investors calling it quits.

We can say "They'll regret it", which they definitely will. But the reality is investors are bailing at this point

 

[unk45]

He might as well buy PayPal and merge it with twitter.

Assuming you're serious, I strongly doubt that PayPal as it stands would add signifiant value from the Elon vision perspective.
PayPal does have 430 million 'active' customers, but it only requires one transaction every ten months to be active. Their Braintree and Zelle businesses do have decent margins but those are really branded quite generic products. Not bad, profitable, but nothing groundbreaking now. Twenty years ago their business was transformational, and really helped eBay.

Today, armed with a Twitter base and the now ancient x.com vision updated there is a vastly different prospect. The global world of 'fintechs' does offer clues.
There is a reason why Tesla has no loyalty card despite a very large and rapidly growing nice transaction flow from Superchargers alone, plus the VPP flows that are just beginning, various subscriptions and more. Decades ago Sears was the one with a majority of all US consumers as credit customers, but they failed to make Discover anything more than a credit card.

Elon knows all that history better than almost anyone. he is not about to replicate the past. That was what x.com was intended to do but the short term opportunists of PayPal really wanted to cash out, so they did. Elon then founded SpaceX...and here wee are.

No chance Elon wants the ashes he left behind!!
(as usual these are my opinions, not necessarily facts. In this case all the history and context is readily available to everyone. Just check PayPal Investor Relations for a good beginning.

 

[henchman24]

Or it's nothing. I'm a huge AMD shareholder and its pattern is very similar to Tesla's(it is for most days btw). Both have polar opposite CEOs but both has similar execution.

Possible, but the pattern really fits with the previous Elon sales. There is a dump right after his form 4s with drama... then a recovery to a norm. I've been wrong plenty before though. I'm just a bored guy on the internet.

 

[elasalle]

VIX < 20

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Though it's not all gloom guys, you won't hear me complain or moan about TSLA trading like a dog anymore

I've resigned myself to the reality that loss of investor confidence will likely mean TSLA's valuation metrics will drop absurdly low. Probably settle in the TTM P/E range of 40-50 before I put expectations on TSLA's trading action going forward. At least for the next 6 months.

You guys get 6 months of not hearing me complain about how dumb TSLA's valuation is. Anytime TSLA underperforms I'm just going to be like "Yup....not surprised". From now on my posts will be strictly Tesla business related.


So............time to celebrate on the forums???