Hi, everybody. 76 people participated in my estimates survey in Q1. You can find the results
here. The community average was too high this time in all categories.
My own estimates were OK in general. I posted these
here on Twitter.
In terms of the regional split of Model 3 deliveries, I estimate it was 20K in EU + 17K in Asia + 14K in North America= 51K in total. In Q2, I would expect EU to drop to 14K, Asia to 10K and North America could increase to 22K= 46K in total. I expect an increase in the US for S/X/3 because people are not going to want to miss out on the $3750 federal tax credits that ends at the end of June. International deliveries of S/X should be the same as Q1.
However, international deliveries of Model 3 are likely to drop because they have already cleared most of the backlog. Since March 2016, many reservation holders in Europe and Asia were waiting for Model 3. Now most of them have already received their car. Yes, RWD LR was not released there yet but RWD is less popular in Europe anyway. Also, of course, there will be lots more SR and SR+ deliveries in Q2 but the demand for these was never as strong as Long-Range versions. People want longer range.
The Autopilot event on 19 April and more deployments of Supercharger V3 could increase demand in Q2. In addition, the Shanghai factory seems to be moving quickly and it could change the conversation towards the end of Q2. Also, Model Y was well received and there seems to be more demand for it than Model 3 because it's a hatchback.
Because the production capacity at Fremont is now under-utilized and S/X production lines are not very efficient anyway, this increases the chances of Model Y production at Fremont, hopefully by the end of this year. Recently I calculated how Tesla's production efficiency compares to NUMMI in terms of cars produced per employee per year. I think S/X production is only 28% as efficient as NUMMI (it was 14% in 2013) and Model 3 is at 64%. Therefore Tesla needs to change something about S/X production. Btw, feel free to follow me on Twitter
@TroyTeslike. I sometimes post predictions and comments there. Cheers