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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I thought the meaning was obvious
Screenshot_20220910_125357.jpg
 

This entire piece may have more useful information than all previous Kolodny articles combined! Please @The Accountant @Gigapress etc... tell me how much money Tesla is gonna print this Q3...

I'm shocked! That Kolodny article read like real journalism! Now I have to reappraise everything I thought I knew about the world! I read the entire thing before I looked at who wrote it and was flabbergasted!
 
I am projecting Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.36 (Wall Street currently has $1.06)

See several posts in the other thread
HERE
My first thought: that can't be right, its way too low, the "bad" Q2 was above $2 IIRC...
Then it hit me, that the split affects these numbers too, LOL.
Just when I thought I trained my brain to adjust to the post-split numbers I realize its not just share and option prices that are affected...
 
This table computes TSLA share price at various P/E ratios by quarter thru Q4 2023.
For example:
$3.53 eps at 110 P/E = $388 share price at Q3'22
$9.00 eps at 85 P/E = $765 share price at Q4'23

View attachment 851162
Good stuff, as always; thanks!

Another way of looking at it is, with the SP at $300 and Q3 earnings of $1.36, TSLA will be trading at 55 P/E on annualized earnings. And somewhere around 40 P/E on annualized earnings after Q4, assuming earnings of around $1.90.

Cheap! Bullish!
 
Look what Gustavo just published:
Tesla maybe using a cheatcode.
Maybe Gustavo is a paid shill, trying to smear the fact Tesla aced the NCAP active safety tests.

Consider this one debunked: This to tell the system it is to act as if it is driving on public roads. These testing facilities has roads that are not treated as public roads otherwise.

I know this as we had to solve this problem for the first NCAP tests back in 2014.
 
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I think you are reading too much into this. The only the reason the SP dropped after this latest split is because the Fed/Powell tanked the entire market.
I guess I don 't see it quite so singularly. A speech means little to a market or stock but as an excuse. After the 5x split there were also macro events or such just as with today's 3x split. The question that might be hiding in the numbers is an improvement in the resiliency of the equity.

You might not see it as bullish but I think there is something bullish in how the numbers played out for this split. It may be that the spring is much tighter during this split. Thanks for your comments. I am still thinking about what we are seeing.
 
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I guess I don 't see it quite so singularly. A speech means little to a market or stock but as an excuse. After the 5x split there were also macro events or such just as with today's 3x split. The question that might be hiding in the numbers is an improvement in the resiliency of the equity.

You might not see it as bullish but I think there is something bullish in how the numbers played out for this split. It may be that the spring is much tighter during this split. Thanks for your comments. I am still thinking about what we are seeing.
The first split didn't have much of a of a leg to stand on. A lot of the rise was probably due to some epic short covering rally unwinding. Today Tesla have proven there's no demand problem, operating margin is way higher than predicted, they were resilient with supply chain issues, massive debt pay offs, and the trailing 12 month plus forward PE are not insane numbers.

Macro wise we are in a much worst spot vs the bubble like conditions due to zero fed rate from 2020-2021.
 
Virtual grid works and pays $2/kW. The fake news that EVs would stress the grid are the biggest bull stink I've heard. Having Power walls might pay for themselves. This is just the beginning.
Another item that I think I disagree with Elon about is nuclear power plants. San Onofre was going to be shut down and people cried that San Diego would have blackouts but NOT TRUE because many people installed roof top solar which worked brilliantly. The Utilities are really not public IMHO. BTW the Nuclear Reactor that was to be shut down is on an earthquake fault. Does anyone realize the long term damages to the area and costs(Japan Fukushima nuclear disaster , Grenoble and 3 mile island)?
The Climate crisis is getting worse and people still think they are entitled to burn up the world. Now would be the time to stop this suicidal progress.



I have lived in San Diego for 6 years. In that time I have experienced more power outages in those 6 years than in 40+ years of living in other places in the USA, including Texas and the East Coast.

Longest power outage here was for 36+ hours.
 
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This table computes TSLA share price at various P/E ratios by quarter thru Q4 2023.
For example:
$3.53 eps at 110 P/E = $388 share price at Q3'22
$9.00 eps at 85 P/E = $765 share price at Q4'23

View attachment 851162
Thank you for the lovely chart!

I've added it to the wall
PXL_20220910_224752450.jpg
 
Again, don't get your hopes up too high! Elon has pending an approx $40B income tax due on the 2018 CEO comp. plan shares that have now vested, but he has not yet executed. Elon likely has only ~$7B in cash, so he'll still need to sell shares when he executes those options, just not as many... @mongo estimates Elon is better off financially to wait until the end of the allowable period before executing (Q2 2028?)

Chairs!
That's confusingly worded. He doesn't owe any tax on vesting, only upon exercise, and if he doesn't need to exercise, he won't incur any tax bill. In any case the magnitude of the bill will depend on the stock price at the time of exercise.