I think the Russians have already mostly pulled whatever energy levers they had. They are essentially a petro-economy. More curtailment from here hurts them more than us. The best case scenario is the Russians are pushed out so quickly and in such humiliating a fashion as to make Putin's continued reign untenable. That is actually looking like a real possibility now.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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I think the Russians have already mostly pulled whatever energy levers they had. They are essentially a petro-economy. More curtailment from here hurts them more than us. The best case scenario is the Russians are pushed out so quickly and in such humiliating a fashion as to make Putin's continued reign untenable. That is actually looking like a real possibility now.
"A gas station with nukes".
Plus S's and X's were considerably less expensive back in 2017. Would be interesting to see the comparison between now and five years ago.
Even the continuation of the levers they have pulled, that will hurt Europe significantly over the winter. The full impact of current decisions has yet to be felt.
The best case is a complete crumbling of Putin's regime and the Russia pulling out before winter. I don't think the odds of that are very high, yet. Ukraine's recent victories are fantastic, but from my reading of military experts (I am not one) it is more likely that Ukraine will stop advances soon, dig in, and prepare to destroy logistics in the Russian strongholds over the winter to slowly bleed them out before another move like this happens in spring. Crimea is likely to hold under Russian occupancy for a long time, even if Ukraine can push them out elsewhere within 8-9 months.
Someone turned the spanking machine on backwards.
That's not even what stands out most to me. I look at the numbers for commodities, new vehicles, used vehicles, and apparel and those don't correlate to a bunch of other data points that we've seen for the past 2 months now. Which makes me not trust the numbers even more. I don't think it's necessarily a fraud, but something is very off about how those numbers are calculated.
It doesn't line up at all with what consumers are seeing, what retailers are saying, what commodity prices have been showing (in their near constant decline since all the way back in May), or what independent data sources are showing. The only way I can correlate the discrepancy is that the CPI calculation is many months old data.....not just a month's old. As in, there's a 3+ month delay from real time inflation to what's in the CPI
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Motley Fools article (SEP 13, 2022 07:37AM EDT) talks about OEM production issues:
- Honda recently saying that it's cutting production in Japan for some of its most popular vehicles. The reduction comes as Honda faces ongoing supply chain issues and a semiconductor shortage
- Ford.: "... we have labor shortages and all sorts of things. The suppliers have been working nonstop during COVID, so machine maintenance and a lot of other things. We see the output of the stress in the supply chain."
- GM: management said in a July filing that it had built 95,000 vehicles that "were manufactured without certain components" -- mainly because of a semiconductor shortage -- some of which won't be completed until the end of this year.
- Tesla says it could have record-breaking vehicle deliveries in the second half of this year
Source: hondas-latest-production-cuts-could-be-a-warning-to-automakers
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
I disagreed because the Teslarati article has been updated due to Martin Viecha clarifying on Twitter. Robotaxi in 2024 is still the plan, not Model 2. Sounds like Gary Black had the wrong info from Business Insider.
Tesla IR head teases affordable EV before Robotaxi rollout
If Tesla would like to dominate the auto industry, it has to release an affordable EV that can be purchased even by entry-level buyers.www.teslarati.com
"According to Tesla head of investor relations Martin Viecha, however, the company may need to release a more affordable EV before the rollout of the dedicated Robotaxi"
IRA incentives must have caused changes in decision/policy and goals. cheers!! No FSD required for a cheaper EV modeleazy peazy!!
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
That's just it though, they can't continue with today's levers pulled for much longer.
No gas revenue from Europe when they could be charging double? 30% discounted crude shipments to Asia, and even more pressure about to cap prices further?
Europe for the most part has figured out their winter plan, it's simply absurdly expensive. But they can handle that for one winter.
Crude futures are plummetting. Can Putin afford to be paid $52($80 minus 35% discount) for crude shipments AND fight an expensive unpopular war? No way.
We've reached a point where Europe can easily afford to wait him out.
I agree that Putin can be waited out... it is just going to be a painful winter for Europe and likely the world because of it. The black swan of the whole thing is Putin's power. If he loses his grip and gets kicked out (whatever term you want to throw at that), everything comes crumbling down for Russia. If Russia keeps struggling, that becomes an increasingly likely thing to happen (I'd say if Russia is in worse shape in the spring, it is very likely). That also means Putin has every incentive to dig in and turn the tide back to his side... and he has to do it quickly. A tyrant backed into a corner is incredibly dangerous.
The only way I see the short-term (meaning this winter) pain subsiding is if Putin is out of control within 6-8 weeks before the extreme pain sets in and things can reverse course in time.
I don't think the market has woken up to these realities.
Contradicting Elon might get you in trouble very quickly
Still, Robotaxi and Model Q could share similar structure (Model3/Y), to make Model Q available before robotaxi.
Even if everything falls in place, robotaxi will require govt approval and who knows when all the hurdles/red-tape is overcome.
Can't have multiple GF building robotaxi and all waiting for govt approvals for FSD.
If battery supply/costs come down, no one is gonna wait for just FSD. cheers!!
I'd say the odds are very high that the Robotaxi and the new cheaper model will be pretty much the same vehicle. The Robotaxi version will likely just be stripped down, likely easier entry/exit vehicle.Contradicting Elon might get you in trouble very quickly
Still, Robotaxi and Model Q could share similar structure (Model3/Y), to make Model Q available before robotaxi.
Even if everything falls in place, robotaxi will require govt approval and who knows when all the hurdles/red-tape is overcome.
Can't have multiple GF building robotaxi and all waiting for govt approvals for FSD.
If battery supply/costs come down, no one is gonna wait for just FSD. cheers!!
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Martin Viecha was talking about 2017 to 2022. Average CoGS per car has declined by about $50k in real terms if we adjust for inflation.
Supposedly Tesla was at $190/kWh in 2017 for the Model 3 pack. The S&X pack was maybe $250/kWh because it was the previous generation using 18650 cells and old pack design. Now Tesla is probably at $100/kWh on average at the pack level. If the average Tesla has 80 kWh of batteries, if Tesla saved $150/kWh since 2017, that’s $12k per car. That’s only a quarter of the total $50k reduction. The other $38k came from scaling Model 3 & Y, manufacturing innovations, and economies of scale.
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Agreed. And who's to say they aren't already working on a model 2/Q and will reveal it in next six months?Contradicting Elon might get you in trouble very quickly
Still, Robotaxi and Model Q could share similar structure (Model3/Y), to make Model Q available before robotaxi.
Even if everything falls in place, robotaxi will require govt approval and who knows when all the hurdles/red-tape is overcome.
Can't have multiple GF building robotaxi and all waiting for govt approvals for FSD.
If battery supply/costs come down, no one is gonna wait for just FSD. cheers!!
Well, nobody actually, just had to put it out there. I personally feel Tesla would be better off introducing the Q2 before the Robitaxi but I'm just a lowly shareholder...
Must be some newbie intern, reversed the polarity...
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
For the USA my understanding is that at the federal level robotaxis are already legalized as of this March when the NHTSA updated the regulations to exempt autonomous driving systems from requirements for stuff like steering wheels and pedals.
The rest of the regulation is being left up to lower tiers of governments (state, territory, etc.) and the majority of states have already published rules for allowing regulated autonomous vehicle operation. I am not familiar with the rules in other countries but America would get it first anyway because it’s being developed for this market as the initial focus, and if other places have rules that seriously restrict robotaxi deployment then the US has plenty of cities that together they could absorb all of Tesla’s robotaxi production for several years while waiting for regulatory approval elsewhere.
I researched this back in May and posted my notes here.
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/6747623/
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